Son_of_Balrog WNBA season

6/22

653 SEATTLE / TULSA o146.5 1*
654 TULSA -2.5 1*

This feels like one of Grandpa Wilbur's old "trap games", Tulsa has given the best teams in the league hell this past two weeks taking LA and PHO to overtime and beating a full strength Chicago squad yesterday, yet they are a short favorite against a SEA team on a true B2B? I'll bite. SEA has been playing well their last two but this is a very good spot for Tulsa, who definitely seems to be turning the corner on the season.
 
ADDING 6/21

LA -4 @ -105 1*

Looks like Harding is going tonight and I make LA a much bigger favorite with her in there.
 
6/25

654 SAN ANTONIO +5 @ -105 1*

Like the Silver Stars to play well tonight on national TV. I make them a slight favorite and I'm grabbing them now as I don't know what the line movement will be today.
 
6/26

602 CHICAGO -8.5 1*

I think Chicago puts it together in this game after coming off a tough road trip. They completely shut down a beat up IND team Saturday and should be comfortable again with Prince back after Euro Basket. I expect a performance similar to their early two home games and don't see New York being able to shoot their way back in this game if they give up another big first half lead.
 
6/25

2ND HALF 654 SAN ANTONIO - PK 1*

SA drops their worst quarter of the year. 3-21 form the floor couldn't hit any open looks. Let me have some more. You'd think PHO was playing some exhibition game the way ESPN talks em up.
 
6/26

602 NEW YORK / CHICAGO u151 1* BOL

Late over steam making this a play for me. Puzzled as to why it came in likely relying on NY to score 70+ on the road.
 
6/28

605 LA / MINNESOTA o163 2*

I think we're getting a gift total here due to MINN's worst offensive game in 2 years @ LA last week. Five of six games they played went over this total last year and the only one that didn't was a freakishly slow 77.5 pace playoff game that played to 159. MINN's offense is vastly superior at home and the opposite is true for LA's defense. If MINN gets a big lead I highly doubt they take their foot off the gas at any point after the embarrassment of a beating they took last week.
 
stupid mid week morning games...killer....time to hit a multi unit total and kick that shit into gear. :badass:
 
6/29

654 CHICAGO -2 1*

Pinbet opened CHI as a dog in this game which is baffling. LA, a very average road team, will be coming off a major western conference showdown with MINN less than 24 hours before. Another game that feels like an ol' Grandpa Wilbur "trap", so obviously I love it.
 
ADDING 6/28

608 SEATTLE -4.5 -105 1*

Locking this in before NY's Pierson is ruled out tonight. Pretty good defensive post player and she is very questionable. Excluding the first quarter @ Chicago this Wednesday NY has been awful on the road and now head into an arena that they have struggled mightily at.
 
6/28

2ND HALF 605 LA / MINN o80.5 1*

Game projecting to 81-82 pace. LA started to press when they got down 15. They shot 36.5 efg% for the half and gave up about 12 layups to MINN. This team has no answer on the interior but I believe they will not shoot this horrible for the entire game.
 
Well that was depressing. Amazing these two teams can basically shit the bed on the road against each other in almost b2b games. LA came out and played with ZERO pride the 2nd half and got punched right in the mouth. FWIW MINN probably breaks 100 if this game is competitive at all. They could not be stopped with their starting 5 in the game.
 
6/30

602 SAN ANTONIO / ATLANTA u158 1*

Looks like this opening over money has hit it's peak. Again I will brave an ATL under knowing how much their defense can shut teams down at home. Sancho a no go for one more game and ATL should keep SA in the high 60s to low 70s.
 
6/30

605 SEATTLE / INDIANA o138 1*

I make this game in 144-145 with Catchings saying her back is very close to 100%. Seattle worst EFG% on the road this year and Indiana has been average at best defensively with their depleted roster. Was waiting to see if we'd get 137.5 today but the over just got hit but bookmaker is still offering the 138.

And now that 138 is gone on bookmaker. 5dimes still offering 138.5 @ -105. would still be a play for me.
 
Yuck. :puking: I'm in the WNBA Bermuda triangle of funk right now. One of those 7 to 10 day stretches I guess. Can't feel too bad though, RAS hit u156 in that ATL game today and crusher Rod was with me on the IND over. Hard to hit it an over when there's 42 turnovers even if it plays to a pace faster than your projection.

Time to get hot though!!!!
 
7/2

Lord, BOL screwed up their openers. I took CHI -5 for 2* even with Fowles likely out. I doubt that wager is allowed though.

Will have totals and a side play once they fix this.

Looks like Pinbet's non account lines are fucked up not BOL.
 
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7/2

652 CHICAGO -5 2*
658 LA -3 1*

Very short line for CHI here even with Fowles doubtful. CHI closed the game out strong against LA after Fowles went out in the first half and covered easily despite 40% EFG%. That should improve with SEA's terrible road defense coming to town.
 
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Well hopefully that Chicago effort was rock bottom for this slump. 21-7 end of first and outscored 62-39 rest of the way at home? That was something special in the annals of shit performance.
 
2ND HALF

602 NEW YORK / LA u81 2*

Game seriously slowed down in the 2nd quarter and with LA in a blowout I doubt their players see much time in the 4th. Baffling 81 here as there is zero chance LA puts up 80+% EFG% in the 2nd half as New York surely comes out and plays prideful on the defensive end. Incredibly rare 2 unit 2nd half here for me. Game is projecting for 80-81 pace, slower than my original projection FWIW.
 
ADDING

603 WASHINGTON / SAN ANTONIO o155 -105 1*.

The under steam coming in on this game is baffling me. WASH has proven they can score on the road: 95 @ TUL, 86 @ SEA, 82 @ PHO, 75 @ ATL, 85 @ CHI, and has played to the home team's pace every game. The two road games that went under this number were against two of the best home defensive teams in the league in CONN and LA, SA on the other hand is one of the worst 3 defensive teams in the league. What I think is being missed is WASH defensive home and away splits. They are very solid at home but excluding the shit pipe CONN game in which half of CONN's roster was out they have allowed 100+ off eff in every road game. SA's offense also being underestimated as they have a played a murderers row of defenses this year: IND, LAx3, CHIx2,MINN, and ATL. Taking away those games they are averaging 82 ppg and 102 off eff. I see competitive game in the low to mid 80's, similar to WASH's game against CHI but with a slightly lower pace.
 
Definitely not liking this CHI under tonight with the news that Lawson should play for CONN. Game steamed too much for me to buyback but hopefully both teams put up a stinker.
 
LOL good ol WNBA. Both games with 85 at half, CHI game goes under and SA game needs a miracle foul fest to beat the close.
 
Wow Mccoughty and Sancho both late scratches for tonight's game at Seattle. Was seriously considering a Seattle play at +6 but this is a no brainer now.
 
GatorsLeafsBills said:
Thanks for the heads up on the Atlanta players being out.
Click to expand...

:cheers: NP. I'm puzzled why money came in on the over for this ATL @ LA game with Sancho out for 6-8 weeks and Mccoughtry VERY questionable. LA already one of the best teams in the league defensively @ home and these two literally make up 40+% of ATL's entire offensive production. Hesitant to lay the 11 with LA until Mccoughtry is officially ruled out though.

Should also note that Hayes is out tonight for ATL too. If McCoughtry doesn't go it's 45 ppg, 18.5 reb, 9.6 assists, and 7.3 steals per game out. :wtf2:
 
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7/18

652 CHICAGO / NEW YORK u153 1*

Waited on this one hoping to get a better price but money is definitely coming in on the under with a full market. Both games this year have gone over this number but I refuse to believe NY will allow 115 off eff to CHI again at home being that it was the only game they've allowed over 100 off eff all year at their place.
 
Game projects to 4 possessions faster than my original. Both teams train wreck shooting in the first which I expect to come back in the 2nd half.
 
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