Son_of_Balrog WNBA season

[Son_of_Balrog]

BEAVER BALL 2013:


Sides: 10-11, -3.5*

1* Totals: 22-18, +2.30*
1.5* Totals: 2-3, -1.95*
2* Totals: 5-5, -1.0*

2nd Half: 1-3, -4.5*


Total: -8.65*

 

[Schrute]

Will be keeping an eye on this thread

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

601 Indiana Fever -2.5 1u

Agree with Hulu. The Silver Stars are coming into this game with their hearts ripped out with Hammon and Young on the shelf with extended injuries. These two both averaged 10+ minutes more than anyone else on the roster last year and there is no way San An can make up for that. I make the Stars -2.5 at full strength in this game and I don't think their rag tag roster will be able to handle the Fever especially considering how poor their defense was in the second half of last year at home.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

653 Tulsa / Atlanta o153 1u

I want to go heavier on this total but Tulsa brings in a revamped roster this year. These teams played to 164 and 194 points last year with both games playing to mid 80's pace. Tulsa also brings in IMO the best offensive player in the draft in Diggins but I don't think she can make up for the worst road defense in the league last year allowing 1.06 pts per possession. Should be a track meet especially with Diggins pushing for Tulsa, girl has never met a shot she didn't like.

 

[B.A.R.]

Best of luck.

 

[Hulu]

Line movement suggests you're on the right side of both.

Good luck. Let the battle for unwatchable sport supremacy begin!

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

5-26
654 CHI / PHOENIX u168.5 1.5*

Looks like Pinbet is opening the WNBA market this year (shitty for us non pro American players) and both this and the TULSA overs were hammered. Phoenix coming in healthy and with man beast Griner this year should translate into a MUCH better offense which IMO is the reason the early money poured in on this over. Here's the thing though, Phoenix was GOD AWFUL on defense last year allowing 1.058 pts per possesion. With Griner in the middle I believe their defense will improve dramatically as she is one of the most dominant defensive players I've ever seen. The one example so far has been the Japan National team whose starters were held to 36.5 EFG% compared to the 49.6 EFG% Phoenix allowed last year. Chicago knows they'll need to keep this game at their pace to have any shot to win and I think they'll keep it around 79-81 possessions. I would not be shocked to see Phoenix's OFF eff and DEF eff numbers flip flop this year and be .1 PPP better as opposed to worse last year.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL bro

 

[Hulu]

I'm seeing it exactly the same way. My numbers suggest 78-80 possessions and probably an 82-77 type of score.

RE Pinbet opening, never heard of them. What time do they release their opening numbers?

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

I'm seeing it exactly the same way. My numbers suggest 78-80 possessions and probably an 82-77 type of score.

RE Pinbet opening, never heard of them. What time do they release their opening numbers?

Sorry, Pinbet is just an old school pinnacle reference... type pinbet.com and it'll redirect you to pinnacle. They also opened the Tulsa game at 150.5 which was a 2* over play for me but Betonline opened at 159 BOOOO.

 

[KowboyKarl]

GL Balrog...looking forward to plenty of winners this Beaver Ball season.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

GL Balrog...looking forward to plenty of winners this Beaver Ball season.

:cheers:

 

[Hulu]

Ahh ok never heard of them refered to as pinbet before. I've been too far behind to hit any openers this season yet but by this weekend's games I will be ahead of the game.

Interestingly, I was looking a little deeper into the Japanese Women's team since this has been Phoenix only competition so far. They only have one player over 6'. No wonder Greiner destroyed them. Good luck today!

 

[KowboyKarl]

DellaDonne dominating Griner...love it

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

LOL @ this PHO game. 17-9 score at the end of the first Chicago puts up 39!!!! pts in the second. I'd be willing to bet that is the high pt total of the year in a quarter in the WNBA. Hard to determine what the pace was once the game got out of hand because there was zero defense in the second half. FWIW game played to 84 pace in a complete blowout. So who knows what it would have been in a close game.

 

[Hulu]

That was a nutso game for sure.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

5/31
603 CONN / CHI u156.5 1.5*

No doubt this isn't the sexiest pick in the world, especially after Chicago's drubbing of Phoenix, but I considered that game somewhat of an anomaly due to CHI's best shooting game in two seasons. These teams played in two meat grinder games @ CHI last year to totals of 158 (OT) and 155 (late foul fest) and that grinder type style should pick up right where it left off. Both teams are very solid on defense and with Delle Donne added I think CHI improves on defense as much as offense and will challenge IND for best defensive team in the league this year. They held PHO to .94 PPP in a game that was a complete blowout for the entire second half. It is early in the year but this game feels like a possible eastern conference finals match up, a low 70's type game with every possession contested at maximum effort.

 

[Hulu]

I like that pick. My numbers put it at 151-157 so I ignored it at open but now would lean under as well. When you consider that both teams had an inflated score last week that adds value at this number. I agree also that Delle Donne will improve defense as much as offense as well. I'm gonna look at this one more and I may get on it too if I can still get a decently high number.

UConn has a true B2B Friday and Saturday. Might be an interesting spot depending on where the line comes out.

Good luck.

 

[SportsFanatic]

My line is 155, what side is best, or should I sit this one out?

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

My line is 155, what side is best, or should I sit this one out?

156.5 on 5dimes and BoL now. u154 would still be a play for me.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

653 LA / SAN ANTONIO o157.5 1*

Hard to play this with San Ans major injuries but I have this number WELL above this total and I don't see how SS's can keep LA out of the 90+ pt range. LA also plays much worse defense away from home.

 

[Schrute]

GL Balrog

Gonna ride along myself

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/2

602 ATLANTA / WASH u161.5 2*
606 PHOENIX / SEATTLE u162.5 1*

Quick thoughts on the Phoenix game: Another hard game to get a true number as both rosters are completely different this year. There are a few things that are constant with SEA. At home they play the slowest pace in the league and they play solid defense. I think both these factors carry over to a roster devastated by injuries. Last year they held run and gun PHO to paces of 78.5 and 73.5 but I gave PHO the benefit of a superior roster and capped a pace of 79-80. SEA knows they can't let this game turn into the Griner showcase if they want any chance to win and I think they ugly this game up as much as possible.

Atlanta game has similar reasoning except I'm more confident in the numbers due to both teams returning a core group of players. Wash plays like a mini SEA in home and away splits. They play slow and have much better defense at home. The two games @ WASH last year played to 150 and 156, with the 156 point game playing to a 82.5 pace (2nd highest pace total wash allowed at home last year.) Another battle of wills where WASH wants to keep this game slow and grind out a win as their offense has zero chance winning a shoot out with any quality team. I think they keep this game to 80 or less possessions and drag ATL into the mud where their shit offense can do enough to keep them close at the end.

 

[Hulu]

Any thoughts on the CON/MIN total tonight? It opened at 160.5, quickly moved to 163 and since has gone all the way to 167.5. I had it at 157 to 163 and I think with Conn on a B2B and the Lynx playing their first game of the season (and first game in 8 days) its a good under spot. Thoughts?

Also, can't believe the line is up to 11. I'm on it at +9.5 but wish I had waited it out. +580 ML on Conn too...gee whiz theres value there IMO

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

My numbers made the game 163 and 161. I'm also eyeing that one and will bite if we see 169. Agree 100% on the B2B for Conn just am a little worried about how well MIN offense plays at home. Both totals today already moving against us yeesh.

 

[Hulu]

I guess the lesson this season thus far is...if you like the under...wait!

 

[Hulu]

Nice job to get the early line on the over in San Antonio. Line shopping FTW.

Lets get those two unders today!

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/5
652 NEW YORK +5 -105 1*

I have this game much closer to PK. Indiana still probably trying to figure out its roster with early season injuries really affecting their depth. This game no doubt will be physical and Indiana's short bench will definitely be an issue late in this game.

 

[Hulu]

Nice call on the Liberty. Curious to see who you like for tomorrow.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/7
654 ATLANTA -9.5 1*
658 SEATTLE -7 1*

Will be back with thoughts later. Eyeing a few more bets we'll see what the movement is.

My numbers already like SEA slightly at -7 and now Cambage and Williams are downgraded to doubtful for Friday. They are two of the top three scorers for Tulsa and the total reflected that drop but not the side.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/8
604 MINNESOTA / WASHINGTON u158 2*

IMO the books are overreacting to MINN awesome offensive performance to start the year. The problem is they're very similar to LA with their home and away offensive splits, awesome at home, but just above average on the road. Washington is playing slightly faster with their new coach but like I've said earlier WASH cannot get in shootouts with teams if they want any chance to win. They drug ATL into a turd game last week and I see no reason why they can't do it again against MINN. Both teams will also be coming off of tough turnarounds with WASH on a B2B.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

602 PHOENIX / INDIANA u161.5 1*

Indiana has already been hit hard by the injury stick this year and now Katie Douglas is downgraded to doubtful for this game. She's second in scoring and plays 37 mins a game for IND and is a huge loss for them. There is no way IND will let PHO get up and down the court in this game and I see a game played very similar to the SEA / PHO game. IND will drag this game to a crawl as they are basically playing with a 6 woman roster now.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

Yikes SEA went 0-17 from 3 tonight. That's a pretty sure way to lose a game.

 

[Hulu]

Nothin you can do about that one. Storm were just cold. Now that Tulsa has a win under their belt, I wonder how badly they get massacred in LA tomorrow

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/12
652 CONNECTICUT / INDIANA u149 1*

 

[Hulu]

Lets get it!

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

Someone crushed it on BOL had to get it on 5dimes.

:cheers:

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/14

604 SEATTLE / ATLANTA u145.5 1*
602 NEW YORK +2 1*


​

 

[Hulu]

SEA/ATL up to 148.5 now? Don't understand that move at all.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

Very Strange to me too. I realize how fast ATL plays at home but SEA has already held LA and PHO to sub 80 pace games and ATL will be without Sancho Lyttle, by far their best shooter.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

ADDING

604 SEATTLE / ATLANTA u148.5 1* BOL

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

LOL epic 4 point 3rd quarter by SEA then coming back in the 4th to cover / push the game.

 

[Hulu]

Gotta love the WNBA. In every game you can count on at least a few mins of utterly incompetent basketball. Bad shot choices, bad passes and ridiculous turnovers...great when you have the under though.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/16

608 SEATTLE / CONN u144.5 2*

Snagged this after someone hit the over. Conn has been awesome on defense at home and Sea is a completely inept offensive team.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/21

651 CHICAGO / TULSA o160 2*

Really like this one and I have no idea why the under was hit at the open. Tulsa has been a train wreck on defense all season but have played very well offensively at home. I think this is just what the doctor ordered for Chicago as they have struggled on both ends since Prince has gone down. They'll be able to play their pace and get plenty of easy looks especially if Cambage is still unable to go.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

ADDING 651 CHICAGO / TULSA o159.5 1*

Prince will be going for Chicago today. This is a MASSIVE upgrade to Chicago's offense yet money comes in on the under? Absolutely baffling to me. First game played to 163 with Tulsa having arguably their worst offensive game of the year. They are significantly better on the offensive end at home and should stay very competitive in this game. Letting this ride for 3 units.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/21
603 WASHINGTON / PHOENIX o164 1*

With the coaching change to Mike Thibault WASH has been playing more up tempo, but more importantly, they're playing to faster teams pace early in the season. So far they've played to 82.5 @ Tulsa, 83 ATL, and 84 MINN. I look for them to let PHO play their game at home and that means a low to mid 80's pace game. PHO had a clunker of a game offensively last night but I expect them to be fine against WASH horrid road defense. Will also be looking at WASH as a side in this game as they have been competitive in every game this year and I don't think that will change against this PHO team.

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

6/21

651 CHICAGO / TULSA o160 2*

Really like this one and I have no idea why the under was hit at the open. Tulsa has been a train wreck on defense all season but have played very well offensively at home. I think this is just what the doctor ordered for Chicago as they have struggled on both ends since Prince has gone down. They'll be able to play their pace and get plenty of easy looks especially if Cambage is still unable to go.

Sorry for the confusion this game is today (6/20) and is starting in less than an hour.

 

[Andy]

hilarious gripping that sea/con under for the .5 victory on stattracker the other day.

nothing like 3un 1130am wnba play on a weekday today either. GL :cheers:

 

[Son_of_Balrog]

hilarious gripping that sea/con under for the .5 victory on stattracker the other day.

nothing like 3un 1130am wnba play on a weekday today either. GL :cheers:

:shake: WNBA DEGENS UNITE!!!!