Some NBA Saturday Notes...

[B.A.R.]

We'll try this again; I saw last night's board pretty well overall in my estimation.

Wins on Clips 1H over and a big one on Rockets 2h over.

Laid off the Milwaukee under pregame and shouldn't have.

I didn't hit any middles, but had 3 different ones at good prices.

Despite leaving a few out there, I feel good, so let's grind away on what is a pretty big Saturday card stretched out with 8 different starting times.


Washington @ Detroit

-Early start in Motown, noon tip
-Big thing for Detroit, Monte Morris finally returned and was solid in limited play in the win vs Charlotte
-These teams have played twice, each winning a blowout
-Detroit schedule through the break pretty difficult, this would be the game to win until then


Miami @ New York

-Knicks 11-2 since the start of the New Year
-This is game 2 in a sequence of 8 out of 9 at home for the Knicks -- making a major move in the East
-Miami has lost FIVE straight games
-Home games for Miami vs Sac and Phoenix follow -- when does the bleeding stop??
-Listed the tweet last night, the Knicks defense with OG has been tremendous


Philadelphia @ Denver

-Rematch from less than 2 weeks ago when Joel had 41 points in a Philly win
-Denver first home game after 5 on road. They got blitzed at MSG on Thursday. This is also a midday start for them
-Game 2 in a five game trip for Phila. They were handled pretty well by the Pacers on Thursday
-Denver, the champs in a bit of revenge but not in the best spot rest-wise. Slow start, then get going?


Houston @ New Jersey

-Nets beat Detroit twice around Xmas to reach .500. Since that point, they are 2-12
-Nets offense has averaged 105.8 the last 7 games
-Rockets won 112-101 a few weeks ago
-Rockets put up 138 on Friday night in Charlotte


LA Clippers @ Boston

-Potential NBA Finals preview
-Celtics won at LA 145-108 (no Kawhi)
-Boston only home loss was Denver last week
-Boston starting very long homestand
-Clippers 2nd of a long east coast trip
-Clippers offense in last 7 wins averaging 128.4


Utah @ Charlotte

-Six game trip for Utah, this is game #4
-Jazz games have had a MIN of 231 points the last 9 contests
-B2B here for Charlotte after 2nd half collapse to Houston


New Orleans @ Milwaukee

-Pelicans the definition of up and down
-Talked to Twink earlier, they don't know what identity they want to be on offense
-Last 4 Pels points for = 132, 109, 153 and 83
-Weird 4 game set coming up on the road, starts with two best teams in East
-Both teams B2B, both lost.
-Bucks have a Cleveland problem, having scored 100 and 95 in their two losses to them in just over a week (one win thrown in)
-Bucks on 3rd coach in a week
-Bucks hit the road Monday, vs the Champs, to start 5 out West

Minnesota @ San Antonio

-Wolves 3rd of 4 on road. They have beaten teams they should so far
-Rivalry game Monday to finish the trip
-Spurs on a B2B, win vs Portland
-Spurs winnable game on Monday at home vs Bullets

LA Lakers @ Golden State

-Good game to have the sound off
-Struggling Warriors with a few more at home before a long road trip. Need wins.
-First meeting this year
-Lakers start of long trip as well.


Sacramento @ Dallas

-Dallas on b2b, big win in Atlanta (Luka 73 points)
-Luka played 44 mins
-Sac off big win in San Fran on Thursday night
-Game 2 of 7 straight on road for the Kings
-Dallas win Friday snapped 3 game losing streak




Thoughts will be added, and plays hinted at once again if warranted.

 

[B.A.R.]

I like to watch how totals move overnight and the hour before the game. That helps to solidify how I'll 'stalk' a total, at the same time still having an open mind.

I cannot state enough how big having Monte Morris back is for Detroit. He has hardly played this season, just a nice veteran presence that this team doesn't have enough of. He played 11 mins the other night and put up 7-3-3. I figure we'll see 15 or so minutes next time out.

I am not a fan of noon games in the NBA, you honestly don't know how these guys will react at all. We shall see how that one starts!

 

[twinkie13]

It’s hard to bet the Pels. It’s so up n down with the lineup it’s best to wait live unless it’s a “situation” and those are even hard to identify

 

[B.A.R.]

Good pace in Motown so far.

118 2h.

Sets at 242 for the game.

SMALL -- over to start, more at 231.5 if we have a 3rd quarter lull.

I generally am not a fan of Wizards overs. But, this start cannot be ignored.

 

[KJ]

Any reason for such an early start there? I get it for national tv but seems strange to give up a Sat night game for a nooner

 

[B.A.R.]

Any reason for such an early start there? I get it for national tv but seems strange to give up a Sat night game for a nooner

No clue to be honest.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good pace in Motown so far.

118 2h.

Sets at 242 for the game.

SMALL -- over to start, more at 231.5 if we have a 3rd quarter lull.

I generally am not a fan of Wizards overs. But, this start cannot be ignored.

229.5 and 230.5 were available.

Shall see.

2h hasn't had the sizzle.

 

[B.A.R.]

Pace isn't brutal at MSG, but no value imo either way 2h.

1h slid under.

Have Brunson prop so hoping for a fun 2h.

 

[B.A.R.]

Pace isn't brutal at MSG, but no value imo either way 2h.

1h slid under.

Have Brunson prop so hoping for a fun 2h.

Pretty crazy how aggressive that 1h total was in retrospect.

 

[B.A.R.]

Fun 4th coming at MSG.

Stalking halftimes of next two starts.

 

[B.A.R.]

Embiid late scratch in Denver.

Too late for myself to fully research.

But, this would be the types of plays we're looking for in the star player OUT angle.

My hypothetical bets

Sixers +13.5
Sixers +7.5 1H (due to sluggish Nuggets start)

 

[B.A.R.]

Embiid late scratch in Denver.

Too late for myself to fully research.

But, this would be the types of plays we're looking for in the star player OUT angle.

My hypothetical bets

Sixers +13.5
Sixers +7.5 (due to sluggish Nuggets start)

Probably an under somewhere.

 

[emkee]

Sixers down 4 starters, they're good when down both Maxey and Jo but no Harris or Melton either...

 

[B.A.R.]

Sixers down 4 starters, they're good when down both Maxey and Jo but no Harris or Melton either...

Yeah, not worried if it's a bunch of G League guys.

More times than not, the other team let's down -- and the wounded team plays much harder.

 

[emkee]

2-0 ATS and SU down all 4 since 2020.

There you go, one win on the road as 11.5 dogs (vs Atlanta)...

 

[emkee]

Sixers will start Beverley, Oubre, Batum, Morris, Reed on Saturday...

 

[B.A.R.]

2-0 ATS and SU down all 4 since 2020.

There you go, one win on the road as 11.5 dogs (vs Atlanta)...

Yeah, it's a winning system.

I watched it a lot last year, bet a few finally.

Tough to track unless around before all the tips but definitely looking for it in spots.

 

[emkee]

Joel gonna get his flowers for being the greatest all-time Bum-Slayer...

 

[emkee]

Got a Nuggets -4.5 ticket, btw so let's hope we both win...

 

[pb278817]

6ers shoot 65% first q. This league is something

 

[guaranteeed]

Embiid ducking jokic should take him out of mvp race

 

[B.A.R.]

6ers shoot 65% first q. This league is something

Still 22-33 from floor.

 

[B.A.R.]

Embiid ducking jokic should take him out of mvp race

100%.

 

[pb278817]

We know the league has issues but If nuggets dont win this handily in 2h, this has to be close to a tipping point

 

[B.A.R.]

Wow, the Rockets didn't show up tonight.

Crooklyn with a rare offensive outburst.

 

[B.A.R.]

Embiid late scratch in Denver.

Too late for myself to fully research.

But, this would be the types of plays we're looking for in the star player OUT angle.

My hypothetical bets

Sixers +13.5
Sixers +7.5 1H (due to sluggish Nuggets start)

Philly covers the 1h easily.

 

[B.A.R.]

We know the league has issues but If nuggets dont win this handily in 2h, this has to be close to a tipping point

Well, the adjusted line at HT is -8.5

Line was -7 last night.

You can't ask for much more.

You'd expect Philly to cool somewhat.

With that being said, these situations see the dog win outright here and there.

 

[emkee]

Script going to plan so far.

Sixers 'bums' shooting close to 67% from the field, Nuggets leaving the lanes open and missing FT's...

 

[guaranteeed]

100%.

Him not playing a game in denver in 4 years is embarrassing

 

[B.A.R.]

Slower pace at Barclay's

Quick 3rd I might peek under.

I need 220+ I think though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Wild that Boston and LA Clip show isn't a marque TV game.

 

[guaranteeed]

Wild that Boston and LA Clip show isn't a marque TV game.

very easily could be finals matchup

would have been way better than dubs lakers

 

[B.A.R.]

Sixers might win this one on the floor.

 

[B.A.R.]

very easily could be finals matchup

would have been way better than dubs lakers

So much better.

Zero interest in Gsw and LAL.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sixers might win this one on the floor.

Go Sixers

Always remember to bet the ML for a fraction on these situations.

:facepalm:

 

[B.A.R.]

Second half setting up well at TD Garden

Over 118 for a few units to start if I was a betting man.

 

[B.A.R.]

Embiid late scratch in Denver.

Too late for myself to fully research.

But, this would be the types of plays we're looking for in the star player OUT angle.

My hypothetical bets

Sixers +13.5
Sixers +7.5 1H (due to sluggish Nuggets start)

Easy money for those that bet this.

Never in doubt after the first 6 mins of the game.

 

[B.A.R.]

Second half setting up well at TD Garden

Over 118 for a few units to start if I was a betting man.

Fwiw, a middle won't be out of the question depending on game situation here towards end of 3rd.

If we have that opportunity...

Celtics need to get going a bit.

 

[B.A.R.]

Rockets and Nets was a dead under game.

Houston did rally in the 4th though. Note that for a young team.

 

[B.A.R.]

I know Porz is out.

I'm not surprised by the Clippers winning.

They are very good.

But, this is putrid from the Celtics.

This game will be in their head in June.

 

[KJ]

I know Porz is out.

I'm not surprised by the Clippers winning.

They are very good.

But, this is putrid from the Celtics.

This game will be in their head in June.

I'm not sure how a "contender" can justify this one

 

[B.A.R.]

Always capping backwards.

Dallas was an easy fade after last night.

There really was no obstacles to taking Sacramento here.

I was trying to find a # live but nothing I was comfortable with.

Still 14 mins left but not a bad situation spot there.

Elsewhere,

Skunky 2h for the Lakers and a very light scoring 4th so far both ways.

 

[survive&advance]

So much better.

Zero interest in Gsw and LAL.

Steph vs Lebron always is going to draw in viewers..the two most popular stars and best rivalry over the last 10 years. Can bank on them going for it in a prime time national tv game, can't say that about a majority of the stars these days. Really fun game last night

 

[B.A.R.]

Steph vs Lebron always is going to draw in viewers..the two most popular stars and best rivalry over the last 10 years. Can bank on them going for it in a prime time national tv game, can't say that about a majority of the stars these days. Really fun game last night

You know what's funny, and embarrassing.

I had a live over in this game. I didn't post in here because the # had moved. Fwiw, it was higher than game total but slightly lower than the HT #.

Anyways, I was looking to set a middle.

After the 3rd my opportunity was 2 points, so I decided to ride it out. A few minutes into the 4th I turned off and went about my night.

Of course it turns into a classic. Shame on me and a lucky win with OT.

Yes, the best rivalry of the 2015-2025 era. No doubt.

Maybe we get these two in a play-in?

 

[survive&advance]

You know what's funny, and embarrassing.

I had a live over in this game. I didn't post in here because the # had moved. Fwiw, it was higher than game total but slightly lower than the HT #.

Anyways, I was looking to set a middle.

After the 3rd my opportunity was 2 points, so I decided to ride it out. A few minutes into the 4th I turned off and went about my night.

Of course it turns into a classic. Shame on me and a lucky win with OT.

Yes, the best rivalry of the 2015-2025 era. No doubt.

Maybe we get these two in a play-in?

Man...i don't think GSW is making it in. Would love to see that play-in though, no doubt