Second Round Thoughts

[divol]

The second round of the playoffs kicks off tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers series.
Both teams boast deep, talented rosters. Cleveland's lineup is stacked with players like Mobley, Allen, Mitchell, and Garland, each capable of being a No. 1 option on an NBA team (though not necessarily a playoff contender). Mitchell stands out as a top-tier talent, and their core complements each other well on both ends of the court. Supporting players like Hunter and Strus could easily fit on a contender’s roster. Yet, despite finishing first in the East, Cleveland struggles to be seen as a true contender. Is this due to bias, or do they lack that extra "star dust"? Time will tell.
The Pacers, while a step below in raw talent, are no slouches. Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Pascal Siakam form a strong trio, with TJ McConnell, likely their fourth-best player, providing a spark off the bench. Their nine-man rotation is versatile and capable of beating any team on any given night. Their biggest edges? Potentially the best player on the court in Haliburton (though Mitchell might disagree), who takes massive strides each season, and a superior coach in Rick Carlisle. Carlisle, a seasoned tactician, thrives with blue-collar teams like this.
Regular-season matchups are unreliable due to injuries, and neither team has extensive recent playoff experience to draw from. For Cleveland, who see themselves as Finals material, this is a critical test. The Pacers, fresh off an ECF appearance last season, aim to at least replicate that success.
Logic points to Cleveland winning a hard-fought series, but I’m torn. I’d prefer to watch Game 1 before locking in a prediction.

 

[divol]

What a strange game in Cleveland tonight! The energy was electric and the atmosphere fun, but the game itself felt... odd. I was surprised to see Cleveland shoot so poorly and equally shocked by how well the Pacers shot. One thing stood out: Cleveland's defense was a mess in the first half, and the Pacers capitalized with open looks on most of their three-point shots. The Pacers' three-pointers to close the first and third quarters were absolute daggers.
Overall, it was a sloppy game from both teams, but messy games often favor underdogs, and the Pacers took advantage. I’m shocked that Ty Jerome took as many shots as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen combined. Between Jerome and Donovan Mitchell, they accounted for over 50% of Cleveland’s shots. Cleveland is the deepest team in the league—there’s no reason for two players to dominate the shot chart, especially when the other one is Jerome.
I didn’t watch the game live, just the recording, but when Cleveland mounted a comeback in the late third quarter and took the lead, it felt like they had the momentum to win. Kudos to the Pacers for staying composed and not folding.
The bottom line? Cleveland’s 23.7% three-point shooting at home compared to the Pacers’ 52.8% on the road decided the game. The Pacers made 10 more threes than Cleveland while attempting two fewer shots. That’s the difference.
In the last second, I placed a wager against Cleveland sweeping the series 4-0 at 1.20 odds. I can’t remember the last time I took such low odds, but I didn’t expect it to cash so easily! I’m not sure what to expect moving forward, but this should be an exciting series. Game 1 didn’t make the outcome any clearer for me.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

What a strange game in Cleveland tonight! The energy was electric and the atmosphere fun, but the game itself felt... odd. I was surprised to see Cleveland shoot so poorly and equally shocked by how well the Pacers shot. One thing stood out: Cleveland's defense was a mess in the first half, and the Pacers capitalized with open looks on most of their three-point shots. The Pacers' three-pointers to close the first and third quarters were absolute daggers.
Overall, it was a sloppy game from both teams, but messy games often favor underdogs, and the Pacers took advantage. I’m shocked that Ty Jerome took as many shots as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen combined. Between Jerome and Donovan Mitchell, they accounted for over 50% of Cleveland’s shots. Cleveland is the deepest team in the league—there’s no reason for two players to dominate the shot chart, especially when the other one is Jerome.
I didn’t watch the game live, just the recording, but when Cleveland mounted a comeback in the late third quarter and took the lead, it felt like they had the momentum to win. Kudos to the Pacers for staying composed and not folding.
The bottom line? Cleveland’s 23.7% three-point shooting at home compared to the Pacers’ 52.8% on the road decided the game. The Pacers made 10 more threes than Cleveland while attempting two fewer shots. That’s the difference.
In the last second, I placed a wager against Cleveland sweeping the series 4-0 at 1.20 odds. I can’t remember the last time I took such low odds, but I didn’t expect it to cash so easily! I’m not sure what to expect moving forward, but this should be an exciting series. Game 1 didn’t make the outcome any clearer for me.

Cleveland‘s guards also, at least at times, dominated the shot-taking against Miami. Not sure to what extent Pacers are following Heat defensive blueprint but they definitely have better, solid perimeter defenders in Nembhard and Nesmith

 

[B.A.R.]

Points in the paint was always going to favor Cleveland but those numbers are wild.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I just wonder, based on its guards also dominating shot-taking vs Heat, iif it‘s difficult for Cleveland to get its bigs more involved? Seems like, against Miami, Allen didn’t start being more productive until Games 3 and 4 and Mobley didn’t until Game 2.

 

[divol]

I just wonder, based on its guards also dominating shot-taking vs Heat, iif it‘s difficult for Cleveland to get its bigs more involved? Seems like, against Miami, Allen didn’t start being more productive until Games 3 and 4 and Mobley didn’t until Game 2.


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We will see... I trust Atkinson. He is solid, with tons of experience and should do the adjustments. We have 4 best coaches in the East not named Spoelstra in the second round...
I think that Turner is solid. I remember he was one of the better defenders and shot blockers few seasons ago...

 

[VirginiaCavs]

We will see... I trust Atkinson. He is solid, with tons of experience and should do the adjustments. We have 4 best coaches in the East not named Spoelstra in the second round...
I think that Turner is solid. I remember he was one of the better defenders and shot blockers few seasons ago...

The fact that Cavs shot so poorly and missed Garland but still scored 112 points seems extremely promising. Mobley has already been successful, and I‘m sure Allen will catch up somewhat

 

[divol]

Tonight, two new playoff series tip off, and last night’s Game 1 showed just how unpredictable these matchups can be.
Boston vs. Knicks
I can see the Knicks making life difficult for Boston, but I don’t envision them winning the series unless a major injury occurs. Jalen Brunson is nursing an injury and will face Jrue Holiday, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns will have to contend with Al Horford, who remains an elite defender at his position despite his age. Brunson will also have to hold his own defensively, which could be a challenge.
The regular season saw Boston dominate the Knicks, going 4-0 straight-up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), with all three ATS wins by double digits. Boston didn’t look particularly sharp against Orlando, but that series lacked intensity and felt like a gentleman’s sweep from the start. This matchup is different. I think Mitchell Robinson could be the X-factor for New York, creating problems for Boston’s frontcourt. However, I can’t recall Tom Thibodeau consistently utilizing a true center effectively.
As a Lakers fan, it’s no surprise I’m rooting for the underdog. I’ve always had a soft spot for the Knicks and Thibodeau, the last remnants (with Jimmy) of that great Bulls team that might have won a title if not for Derrick Rose’s injury (and Thibs’ tendency to overplay his starters). If Boston were a team that consistently dominated, this could be a sweep. But for some reason, the Celtics often coast through the early playoff rounds until the Eastern Conference Finals. Last year, they dropped home games to Miami and Cleveland. Maybe the Knicks’ rivalry will force them to flip the switch earlier this time.
Boston wins 4-1, but they’ll likely struggle to cover the spread. I’m hesitant to bet on it, though. Hoping Knicks make it a series...

Thunder vs. Denver
The Thunder are phenomenal—young, deep, athletic, and poised in a way you rarely see. I can’t remember a team this strong in years. Their lack of playoff experience could be a factor, as we’ve seen many talented teams fall short in their first postseason run before winning a championship later. Still, this team feels special.
This series features two MVP candidates, and it would’ve been exciting if the MVP announcement came before Game 1 to see how the runner-up responded. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to happen.
Denver, in my opinion, is one Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) short of being a true contender. I still don’t understand why they let him go. He won championships with both the Lakers and Nuggets, and in both cases, the teams’ decisions to move on felt like a huge mistake.
Russell Westbrook’s return to Oklahoma City is a super cool. If he plays like his Thunder prime, this could be a competitive series. But what are the odds of that? Can Denver string together four perfect games to win? I doubt it. A sweep feels more likely than a Denver upset.
The regular season series was split 2-2, with an odd twist: Denver won both games when Aaron Gordon was out and lost both when he played. I see Gordon as an X-factor, but the regular season data suggests otherwise.
Rust shouldn’t be an issue for Oklahoma City in Game 1, though over-eagerness might be. Denver, on the other hand, could be physically and emotionally drained. Betting the over in this series seems like a smart play. The 226.5-point total feels low—230.5 would be more accurate. That said, I’d rather watch Game 1 before making a final call.

 

[divol]

Will write my thoughts in Games 1 tonight probably tomorrow, today will focus on the games we have.
Cleveland - Indiana
-7.5 is very short line. Probably the three ? (Mobley, Hunter and Garland) got line to fall, but I assume they play, because they know how hard it will be for them to comeback from losing the first two games at home.
I expect three point % to adjust and while Pacers won't roll back and try to fight, Cleveland should get this one, good chance ATS as well.
Mobley and Allen need to go to work tonight and while they excel in transition, this is a game that Pacers excel in as well and it's the standing offense where Cleveland has bigger advantage and it's ok if they will change gears few times and play some minutes set offense.
I like Cleveland -7.5 and Under 229.5 points. Maybe Under TT 110.5 for Indiana is the best option.

Minnesota - GSW

Have no idea how this series unfolds. If road team wins another game tonight, it will be a case, where all 4 road teams won as an Underdog Game 1 in the second round of the playoffs. Can't remember it ever happening. Wonder what are the odds if you take combined all 4 to win ML, but probably somewhere around lottery odds
Teams met 4 times, but all 4 were before Jimmy's trade, so see no point looking at them.
I want to see at least Game 1 before making any specific thoughts.
I do like Conley Over 6.5 points tonight. Just a feeling that he has the experience, he also should see the floor a lot due to his defense and it seems like he should bring his game tonight.

 

[divol]

Finally got few mins. Watched most of the games and amazing games.
If I'm Cleveland, I'm not allowing Jerome to be anywhere near Cavs anymore. 20 shots in the first game from the bench was wrong. But 1 out of 14 in Game 2?! Stop shooting. You're not a basketball player and who ever gave you that idea, really needs to see the games against Pacers...
Another problem I have with Mitchell... I understand that he shot 30 shots and 21 FT. I realize that he every possession he faced two and three players. But he played 36 mins, not in B2B situation and he is only 28 years old... He looked in the final minute like he played B2B2B 48 mins each game non stop...
Pacers got game... 6 players in DD second game straight. Next man up, always looking for the hot hand. Carlisle got a team that is perfect for him. Tyrese is amazing...
Cleveland was 97% probability to win the game at some point...

Fooled me once, shame on you, fooled me twice, shame on you...
The games in Boston were so identical one to other that it's crazy... Both times Celtics lead by 20 in the 3rd quarter (99% to win at that point), both times froze in the end of the game and both times couldn't even take a shot that could win/tie the game with Bridges both times getting the ball.
What are the chances?! If it was a movie, I would have said it's unreal and could happen only in a movie.
I think that Celtics lost obviously in the 4th, but if all the missed layups in the first quarter would have been in, I think it could have turned to a game like we saw in Oklahoma tonight...
Bridges showed up only for 1 quarter, but it was enough. Tatum MIA for second game straight...
Bridges and OG were signed thinking of the Celtics and the defense on them and for now they worth every dollar. OG missing Games 6&7 against Pacers last season, could be the reason Knicks didn't face Celtics in the ECF last season...

Game 1 in Oklahoma was another game where win probability late in the game was around 97% in Thunder favor and it's crazy to see that many games ending that crazy... Braun with first 7 points for the Nuggets, Gordon with the finish, Jokic playing mediocre and yet winning, RW actually making the right play - it was crazy game and perfect storm for Nugs to win Game 1. Game 2 was looking more like what I thought both games would look like.

Gordon and Tyrese with game winners in two different series in the same postseason and Brunson the same (though via FT).

Dubs winning didn't shock anyone, but winning without Curry? Game 2 would be much more interesting. Edwards keeps screaming he is the best... So far this postseason he didn't show that. A loss tonight at home to GSW without Curry... I hope it won't happen, but if so, maybe will make him a bit more humble...

No bet tonight. Feels like an Over, but we need to see how both teams react to Steph's injury.

 

[B.A.R.]

Problem with Mitchell is he's not a wear and tear guy anymore.

Granted, he actually played 71 games this year (first time over 70 since 2018) but he gets tired.

Not taking anything away from a great G1 though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Any overs in Minnesota series will be a surprise with those defences. We shall see.

 

[divol]

Any overs in Minnesota series will be a surprise with those defences. We shall see.

I agree, just the feeling is that the whole world will be on the Under here and total surprisingly high. Plus without Curry only Butler is good at set offence

 

[B.A.R.]

So, dead under until the injury halfway through the 2nd...

The rest of the half the pace was +10 points (in those 6 mins).

I was close at HT to playing the over. I relented but with a Warriors team on tired legs and Ant not as effective that was two key parts in helping this series gain some pace.

Nice call Divol

I agree, just the feeling is that the whole world will be on the Under here and total surprisingly high. Plus without Curry only Butler is good at set offence

 

[divol]

So, dead under until the injury halfway through the 2nd...

The rest of the half the pace was +10 points (in those 6 mins).

I was close at HT to playing the over. I relented but with a Warriors team on tired legs and Ant not as effective that was two key parts in helping this series gain some pace.

Nice call Divol

Thanks! Watched only the 2nd half, but like always with Totals... pace and percentage make or break the total

 

[divol]

Today we have two games where road teams are heavy favorites to a level I'm not sure is just. What's the status on Cavs injured trio? Will they play? Even if they all play, how effective? Pacers won two road games in Cleveland and now will roll over at home? I don't think so. Cavs with their back to the wall, but Pacers don't care. The +5 that I see in some books on Pacers is just mind blowing. Don't like betting on lines I simply don't understand, but I think even with healthy Cleveland it's Pacers -1/-2 at home after what we seen so far.
Pacers will try to do their best to end the series in Indiana...

As for the Thunder-Nuggets matchup, I understand why Oklahoma City is favored in Denver. They’re a powerhouse, and Game 2 proved it. The Thunder need a win in Denver to avoid going home down 0-3, and if you believe in them, you can back that momentum. However, -5.5 points is steep! This is one of the wildest, most unpredictable second-round playoffs we’ve seen in years, so I’d be cautious about laying big points. I never thought I’d back Denver in this series, but at these prices, I could see myself betting on the Nuggets to win outright or cover at home in one or both games. It wouldn’t surprise me if this series returns to Oklahoma tied 2-2, offering great value on the home team.