Second Round Thoughts

[divol]

The second round of the playoffs kicks off tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers series.
Both teams boast deep, talented rosters. Cleveland's lineup is stacked with players like Mobley, Allen, Mitchell, and Garland, each capable of being a No. 1 option on an NBA team (though not necessarily a playoff contender). Mitchell stands out as a top-tier talent, and their core complements each other well on both ends of the court. Supporting players like Hunter and Strus could easily fit on a contender’s roster. Yet, despite finishing first in the East, Cleveland struggles to be seen as a true contender. Is this due to bias, or do they lack that extra "star dust"? Time will tell.
The Pacers, while a step below in raw talent, are no slouches. Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Pascal Siakam form a strong trio, with TJ McConnell, likely their fourth-best player, providing a spark off the bench. Their nine-man rotation is versatile and capable of beating any team on any given night. Their biggest edges? Potentially the best player on the court in Haliburton (though Mitchell might disagree), who takes massive strides each season, and a superior coach in Rick Carlisle. Carlisle, a seasoned tactician, thrives with blue-collar teams like this.
Regular-season matchups are unreliable due to injuries, and neither team has extensive recent playoff experience to draw from. For Cleveland, who see themselves as Finals material, this is a critical test. The Pacers, fresh off an ECF appearance last season, aim to at least replicate that success.
Logic points to Cleveland winning a hard-fought series, but I’m torn. I’d prefer to watch Game 1 before locking in a prediction.

 

[divol]

What a strange game in Cleveland tonight! The energy was electric and the atmosphere fun, but the game itself felt... odd. I was surprised to see Cleveland shoot so poorly and equally shocked by how well the Pacers shot. One thing stood out: Cleveland's defense was a mess in the first half, and the Pacers capitalized with open looks on most of their three-point shots. The Pacers' three-pointers to close the first and third quarters were absolute daggers.
Overall, it was a sloppy game from both teams, but messy games often favor underdogs, and the Pacers took advantage. I’m shocked that Ty Jerome took as many shots as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen combined. Between Jerome and Donovan Mitchell, they accounted for over 50% of Cleveland’s shots. Cleveland is the deepest team in the league—there’s no reason for two players to dominate the shot chart, especially when the other one is Jerome.
I didn’t watch the game live, just the recording, but when Cleveland mounted a comeback in the late third quarter and took the lead, it felt like they had the momentum to win. Kudos to the Pacers for staying composed and not folding.
The bottom line? Cleveland’s 23.7% three-point shooting at home compared to the Pacers’ 52.8% on the road decided the game. The Pacers made 10 more threes than Cleveland while attempting two fewer shots. That’s the difference.
In the last second, I placed a wager against Cleveland sweeping the series 4-0 at 1.20 odds. I can’t remember the last time I took such low odds, but I didn’t expect it to cash so easily! I’m not sure what to expect moving forward, but this should be an exciting series. Game 1 didn’t make the outcome any clearer for me.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

What a strange game in Cleveland tonight! The energy was electric and the atmosphere fun, but the game itself felt... odd. I was surprised to see Cleveland shoot so poorly and equally shocked by how well the Pacers shot. One thing stood out: Cleveland's defense was a mess in the first half, and the Pacers capitalized with open looks on most of their three-point shots. The Pacers' three-pointers to close the first and third quarters were absolute daggers.
Overall, it was a sloppy game from both teams, but messy games often favor underdogs, and the Pacers took advantage. I’m shocked that Ty Jerome took as many shots as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen combined. Between Jerome and Donovan Mitchell, they accounted for over 50% of Cleveland’s shots. Cleveland is the deepest team in the league—there’s no reason for two players to dominate the shot chart, especially when the other one is Jerome.
I didn’t watch the game live, just the recording, but when Cleveland mounted a comeback in the late third quarter and took the lead, it felt like they had the momentum to win. Kudos to the Pacers for staying composed and not folding.
The bottom line? Cleveland’s 23.7% three-point shooting at home compared to the Pacers’ 52.8% on the road decided the game. The Pacers made 10 more threes than Cleveland while attempting two fewer shots. That’s the difference.
In the last second, I placed a wager against Cleveland sweeping the series 4-0 at 1.20 odds. I can’t remember the last time I took such low odds, but I didn’t expect it to cash so easily! I’m not sure what to expect moving forward, but this should be an exciting series. Game 1 didn’t make the outcome any clearer for me.

Cleveland‘s guards also, at least at times, dominated the shot-taking against Miami. Not sure to what extent Pacers are following Heat defensive blueprint but they definitely have better, solid perimeter defenders in Nembhard and Nesmith

 

[B.A.R.]

Points in the paint was always going to favor Cleveland but those numbers are wild.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I just wonder, based on its guards also dominating shot-taking vs Heat, iif it‘s difficult for Cleveland to get its bigs more involved? Seems like, against Miami, Allen didn’t start being more productive until Games 3 and 4 and Mobley didn’t until Game 2.

 

[divol]

I just wonder, based on its guards also dominating shot-taking vs Heat, iif it‘s difficult for Cleveland to get its bigs more involved? Seems like, against Miami, Allen didn’t start being more productive until Games 3 and 4 and Mobley didn’t until Game 2.


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We will see... I trust Atkinson. He is solid, with tons of experience and should do the adjustments. We have 4 best coaches in the East not named Spoelstra in the second round...
I think that Turner is solid. I remember he was one of the better defenders and shot blockers few seasons ago...

 

[VirginiaCavs]

We will see... I trust Atkinson. He is solid, with tons of experience and should do the adjustments. We have 4 best coaches in the East not named Spoelstra in the second round...
I think that Turner is solid. I remember he was one of the better defenders and shot blockers few seasons ago...

The fact that Cavs shot so poorly and missed Garland but still scored 112 points seems extremely promising. Mobley has already been successful, and I‘m sure Allen will catch up somewhat

 

[divol]

Tonight, two new playoff series tip off, and last night’s Game 1 showed just how unpredictable these matchups can be.
Boston vs. Knicks
I can see the Knicks making life difficult for Boston, but I don’t envision them winning the series unless a major injury occurs. Jalen Brunson is nursing an injury and will face Jrue Holiday, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns will have to contend with Al Horford, who remains an elite defender at his position despite his age. Brunson will also have to hold his own defensively, which could be a challenge.
The regular season saw Boston dominate the Knicks, going 4-0 straight-up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), with all three ATS wins by double digits. Boston didn’t look particularly sharp against Orlando, but that series lacked intensity and felt like a gentleman’s sweep from the start. This matchup is different. I think Mitchell Robinson could be the X-factor for New York, creating problems for Boston’s frontcourt. However, I can’t recall Tom Thibodeau consistently utilizing a true center effectively.
As a Lakers fan, it’s no surprise I’m rooting for the underdog. I’ve always had a soft spot for the Knicks and Thibodeau, the last remnants (with Jimmy) of that great Bulls team that might have won a title if not for Derrick Rose’s injury (and Thibs’ tendency to overplay his starters). If Boston were a team that consistently dominated, this could be a sweep. But for some reason, the Celtics often coast through the early playoff rounds until the Eastern Conference Finals. Last year, they dropped home games to Miami and Cleveland. Maybe the Knicks’ rivalry will force them to flip the switch earlier this time.
Boston wins 4-1, but they’ll likely struggle to cover the spread. I’m hesitant to bet on it, though. Hoping Knicks make it a series...

Thunder vs. Denver
The Thunder are phenomenal—young, deep, athletic, and poised in a way you rarely see. I can’t remember a team this strong in years. Their lack of playoff experience could be a factor, as we’ve seen many talented teams fall short in their first postseason run before winning a championship later. Still, this team feels special.
This series features two MVP candidates, and it would’ve been exciting if the MVP announcement came before Game 1 to see how the runner-up responded. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to happen.
Denver, in my opinion, is one Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) short of being a true contender. I still don’t understand why they let him go. He won championships with both the Lakers and Nuggets, and in both cases, the teams’ decisions to move on felt like a huge mistake.
Russell Westbrook’s return to Oklahoma City is a super cool. If he plays like his Thunder prime, this could be a competitive series. But what are the odds of that? Can Denver string together four perfect games to win? I doubt it. A sweep feels more likely than a Denver upset.
The regular season series was split 2-2, with an odd twist: Denver won both games when Aaron Gordon was out and lost both when he played. I see Gordon as an X-factor, but the regular season data suggests otherwise.
Rust shouldn’t be an issue for Oklahoma City in Game 1, though over-eagerness might be. Denver, on the other hand, could be physically and emotionally drained. Betting the over in this series seems like a smart play. The 226.5-point total feels low—230.5 would be more accurate. That said, I’d rather watch Game 1 before making a final call.

 

[divol]

Will write my thoughts in Games 1 tonight probably tomorrow, today will focus on the games we have.
Cleveland - Indiana
-7.5 is very short line. Probably the three ? (Mobley, Hunter and Garland) got line to fall, but I assume they play, because they know how hard it will be for them to comeback from losing the first two games at home.
I expect three point % to adjust and while Pacers won't roll back and try to fight, Cleveland should get this one, good chance ATS as well.
Mobley and Allen need to go to work tonight and while they excel in transition, this is a game that Pacers excel in as well and it's the standing offense where Cleveland has bigger advantage and it's ok if they will change gears few times and play some minutes set offense.
I like Cleveland -7.5 and Under 229.5 points. Maybe Under TT 110.5 for Indiana is the best option.

Minnesota - GSW

Have no idea how this series unfolds. If road team wins another game tonight, it will be a case, where all 4 road teams won as an Underdog Game 1 in the second round of the playoffs. Can't remember it ever happening. Wonder what are the odds if you take combined all 4 to win ML, but probably somewhere around lottery odds
Teams met 4 times, but all 4 were before Jimmy's trade, so see no point looking at them.
I want to see at least Game 1 before making any specific thoughts.
I do like Conley Over 6.5 points tonight. Just a feeling that he has the experience, he also should see the floor a lot due to his defense and it seems like he should bring his game tonight.

 

[divol]

Finally got few mins. Watched most of the games and amazing games.
If I'm Cleveland, I'm not allowing Jerome to be anywhere near Cavs anymore. 20 shots in the first game from the bench was wrong. But 1 out of 14 in Game 2?! Stop shooting. You're not a basketball player and who ever gave you that idea, really needs to see the games against Pacers...
Another problem I have with Mitchell... I understand that he shot 30 shots and 21 FT. I realize that he every possession he faced two and three players. But he played 36 mins, not in B2B situation and he is only 28 years old... He looked in the final minute like he played B2B2B 48 mins each game non stop...
Pacers got game... 6 players in DD second game straight. Next man up, always looking for the hot hand. Carlisle got a team that is perfect for him. Tyrese is amazing...
Cleveland was 97% probability to win the game at some point...

Fooled me once, shame on you, fooled me twice, shame on you...
The games in Boston were so identical one to other that it's crazy... Both times Celtics lead by 20 in the 3rd quarter (99% to win at that point), both times froze in the end of the game and both times couldn't even take a shot that could win/tie the game with Bridges both times getting the ball.
What are the chances?! If it was a movie, I would have said it's unreal and could happen only in a movie.
I think that Celtics lost obviously in the 4th, but if all the missed layups in the first quarter would have been in, I think it could have turned to a game like we saw in Oklahoma tonight...
Bridges showed up only for 1 quarter, but it was enough. Tatum MIA for second game straight...
Bridges and OG were signed thinking of the Celtics and the defense on them and for now they worth every dollar. OG missing Games 6&7 against Pacers last season, could be the reason Knicks didn't face Celtics in the ECF last season...

Game 1 in Oklahoma was another game where win probability late in the game was around 97% in Thunder favor and it's crazy to see that many games ending that crazy... Braun with first 7 points for the Nuggets, Gordon with the finish, Jokic playing mediocre and yet winning, RW actually making the right play - it was crazy game and perfect storm for Nugs to win Game 1. Game 2 was looking more like what I thought both games would look like.

Gordon and Tyrese with game winners in two different series in the same postseason and Brunson the same (though via FT).

Dubs winning didn't shock anyone, but winning without Curry? Game 2 would be much more interesting. Edwards keeps screaming he is the best... So far this postseason he didn't show that. A loss tonight at home to GSW without Curry... I hope it won't happen, but if so, maybe will make him a bit more humble...

No bet tonight. Feels like an Over, but we need to see how both teams react to Steph's injury.

 

[B.A.R.]

Problem with Mitchell is he's not a wear and tear guy anymore.

Granted, he actually played 71 games this year (first time over 70 since 2018) but he gets tired.

Not taking anything away from a great G1 though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Any overs in Minnesota series will be a surprise with those defences. We shall see.

 

[divol]

Any overs in Minnesota series will be a surprise with those defences. We shall see.

I agree, just the feeling is that the whole world will be on the Under here and total surprisingly high. Plus without Curry only Butler is good at set offence

 

[B.A.R.]

So, dead under until the injury halfway through the 2nd...

The rest of the half the pace was +10 points (in those 6 mins).

I was close at HT to playing the over. I relented but with a Warriors team on tired legs and Ant not as effective that was two key parts in helping this series gain some pace.

Nice call Divol

I agree, just the feeling is that the whole world will be on the Under here and total surprisingly high. Plus without Curry only Butler is good at set offence

 

[divol]

So, dead under until the injury halfway through the 2nd...

The rest of the half the pace was +10 points (in those 6 mins).

I was close at HT to playing the over. I relented but with a Warriors team on tired legs and Ant not as effective that was two key parts in helping this series gain some pace.

Nice call Divol

Thanks! Watched only the 2nd half, but like always with Totals... pace and percentage make or break the total

 

[divol]

Today we have two games where road teams are heavy favorites to a level I'm not sure is just. What's the status on Cavs injured trio? Will they play? Even if they all play, how effective? Pacers won two road games in Cleveland and now will roll over at home? I don't think so. Cavs with their back to the wall, but Pacers don't care. The +5 that I see in some books on Pacers is just mind blowing. Don't like betting on lines I simply don't understand, but I think even with healthy Cleveland it's Pacers -1/-2 at home after what we seen so far.
Pacers will try to do their best to end the series in Indiana...

As for the Thunder-Nuggets matchup, I understand why Oklahoma City is favored in Denver. They’re a powerhouse, and Game 2 proved it. The Thunder need a win in Denver to avoid going home down 0-3, and if you believe in them, you can back that momentum. However, -5.5 points is steep! This is one of the wildest, most unpredictable second-round playoffs we’ve seen in years, so I’d be cautious about laying big points. I never thought I’d back Denver in this series, but at these prices, I could see myself betting on the Nuggets to win outright or cover at home in one or both games. It wouldn’t surprise me if this series returns to Oklahoma tied 2-2, offering great value on the home team.

 

[divol]

Denver got the job done already in Game 3, no need to chase I think there is value in OKC for Game 4 if the odds are good, but I doubt it. Very weak game overall by SGA and Jokic, but J.Williams and Murray kept their teams in game.
In the end, crazy number of missed layups by both teams and missed open three pointers. On top of that, Denver can't allow any team to own them on boards under their own basket like that!
Tbh, most of the game thought Thunder will take it. Somehow it felt that Denver can't find their game, while Thunder it's only a matter of time. Thunder defense did good job closing the paint, but unlike the first 2 games, couldn't stop Denver's ball movement and I think that what killed them in the end. Jokic and Murray have the experience to find the way to win the game if you give them this option.
If Denver wins the ship somehow, Gordon the MVP?

Didn't see Game 3 in Indiana, woke up to see Cleveland owning Pacers and got back to sleep. One of the those cases when the line is odd, better stay out of it. No word about Jerome that shot 1 from 8 from the floor, 3 turnovers to 0 assists and played 13 minutes and managed to have -15 in +- in a game where Cleveland won by 22 points...
Looking at scoreboard, strange to see Tyrese with only 4 points and hardly trying to put Pacers in comeback position. It's not like they weren't trailing behind Cavs before...
Somehow it feels that Pacers decided to focus on Game 4 before Game 3...

 

[B.A.R.]

I was shocked by the Haliburton stat line as well....

Weird game by Joker.

Thunder at least solved their rebounding issue from game #1. Now, they need to execute better.

Line is -6. No value.

Pacers might be done. I hope I'm overreacting but healthy Cleveland is really, really good.

 

[divol]

I was shocked by the Haliburton stat line as well....

Weird game by Joker.

Thunder at least solved their rebounding issue from game #1. Now, they need to execute better.

Line is -6. No value.

Pacers might be done. I hope I'm overreacting but healthy Cleveland is really, really good.

Hard to tell. Cleveland came blazing, Pacers didn't really react despite making a small run in the 3rd. Game 4 probably will decide the series. Winner takes all.
On the second hand, since last year's series between Denver and Minny, with Denver losing 2 at home, winning 3 straight and then losing 2 straight despite leading by huge lead I understand that logic is long gone

 

[divol]

Game in Oakland easy skip. Line suggests Ant is playing, but how much - who knows. GSW needs to at least split the series at home and will fight hard. Under makes sense here, but it's too close to take. Both teams are good enough to score 95-102 points, so 190-204 is my range... GSW SU and ATS has value, but I hate betting unknown... Live betting should offer nice value.

Boston in must win spot in NY. The line suggests the same. Can't say line is wrong. Boston could have won both games DD, so back to the wall you can't make them less than 2 baskets favorites. I think that we can see game similar to the game in Indy, but Knicks much more resilient. This is Knicks much much much better than last year, so can't see myself backing Boston.
Total adjusted big time by 5 points, not to mention more than 20 points adjustment from regular season totals. I liked Under here, but with such adjustment - it has zero value.
Tatum gets crazy high 28.5 points - highest total all postseason so far.
Took just for fun Porzingis Over 12.5 points + rebounds. Feeling it's too low and overreaction to first two games.

Gut says betting both home teams SU should give at least a split with very nice odds, but that's pure value and I can't remember when I took such bets last time.

Live bets it is

 

[divol]

Porzingis couldn't hit anything despite getting minutes.
No more winless teams in the second round with Boston's win tonight (crazy).
Boston finally hit their three pointers and didn't allow Knicks comeback - still waiting for Knicks to start strong - Game 4 they might have decent value.
Been tempted all game long to take Wolves and GS live on different occasions, but it was a game that I was fine just to watch.
Total wise, in both games Bookies adjusted well to the game with Under cashing by a nose. Ant and Randle had great game. I don't know, but I believe it's first triple double by Randle in Postseason - correct me if I'm wrong.
Gobert, Reid and McDaniels each at different moments made the difference between winning and losing.
GSW (besides Green) gave all they got and lost. They will need to find energy for Game 4 and not sure they got it. Kuminga - why Kerr hid him for 6 games against Houston?!
Minny and Knicks should have some value next game...

 

[divol]

Grabbed me Tyrese Over 17.5 points. Lowest total so far this postseason, in almost a must win game, after a game of 4 points. Win or lose, I will take such a bet on any day of the week...
As for the game, it's Game 4 only, but it feels like the one that wins this one, probably takes the series. Cleveland came firing from all cylinders and won easily, but I doubt Pacers will give up. So far, teams responded well to beat downs this post season. Cleveland better, but 5 points on the road is a lot.
Don't know who wins, but ATS Pacers probably got some value - though not betting - maybe live.

Jokic and SGA played very mediocre and I expect both to respond tonight. Totals on them are very high, but they can go over. As for the game, usually 6.5 points to healthy Denver at home is an auto bet against any team in the league, but here the value with the Thunder. Thunder know they could have been 3 - 0 here and cruising to WCF, but now, if they lose tonight, it will be hard to come back. Somehow it feels that Denver just stays in the game and then gives 5 - 7 mins and wins the game. After that poor shooting game, percentage can improve, but the feeling is that both teams will try to go to what worked and it was mostly defense for both. When they locked their paint, they made runs. Total adjusted and is 5 points lower than Game 3.

Very tough second round finding value betting (for me at least). Probably be looking on Thunder live if they get evens or something. Betting -6.5 is dangerous - as we saw in SF tonight. Rooting for Denver, despite huge respect to Thunder, so maybe will stay away all together...

 

[B.A.R.]

Great idea on Hali..

 

[divol]

Two strange games last night. Indy came out blazing, Cavs couldn't find a rhythm and 41 points margin in HT, in second round of the playoffs, against number one seed that was completely healthy? If Pacers win it all, it would be one hell of a movie for Hollywood!
Tyrese bet a miss. He let's the game come to him, taking over if has to and no need tonight. Will take him again in Game 5

Why Pacer got the ejection last night still don't get...

Game in Denver was strange. Both teams played bad. SGA showed up in the end. Jokic didn't.
Very poor and strange playoffs for Jokic. Angry, frustrated, making bad calls. Really not the player we saw all the years.
I guess we will know the reason in the summer...

 

[divol]

On tonight's games, I think we got some value on the Knicks. Boston proved that they not going to change their style of play, but I'm not sure it's a good thing. Last night, shots have fallen. Will they tonight? Honestly I don't know, but I think Knicks have a shot tonight, at least ATS.
I think both coaches need to make adjustments. Knicks started poorly all three games in the series and you can't count on making 20 points comeback each game. I think that a loss can do good for the Knicks if they will finally make adjustments.
If I'm Thibs, I start with Robinson. He comes late, Celtics start to commit fouls on him and he gets pulled out. Unless Celtics want to start each quarter with 4 fouls, he can stay on the floor a lot more if he opens the quarters and sits out when 4 team fouls on the Celtics are done. KAT plays so much better next to Robinson + it creates a real problem for Celtics defense wise and under the rim, especially in a series where Porzingis is AWOL so far.
Bridges should get much more touches, not to wear Brunson from the start as well I think.
Boston just needs to stop shooting three pointers so much, especially when Brown and Tytum are so versatile.

Overall, I think Knicks have a shot at this series, something I never thought I will say.

In SF it's huge game for GSW. I wonder if fatigue will hurt Butler or he can carry this team to a win. Wolves probably a better team even with healthy Curry. Without him, it's mostly experience is what keeping GSW in the game and Kuminga.
The line is too high, but maybe live play on the Wolves if Warriors start strong (and they can).

 

[2daBank]

I started to look at player props but then every day of last week flashed into my mind and I’m almost to the point the blowout factor is to much to overcome playing these props. It hard enough to cap them correctly and be lucky enough it goes the way we think, then next thing ya know you a bucket or board short and dude doesn’t play a minute of the 4th qrtr. It has become a real problem I never anticipated would be a playoff issue. The regular season fine I get it, but damn the blowouts and lack of minutes in those blowouts is a real thing that has to be put into the capping, unfortunately I have no clue which or when the blowout coming and players sitting and laughing at me all 4th qrtr!!

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Two strange games last night. Indy came out blazing, Cavs couldn't find a rhythm and 41 points margin in HT, in second round of the playoffs, against number one seed that was completely healthy? If Pacers win it all, it would be one hell of a movie for Hollywood!
Tyrese bet a miss. He let's the game come to him, taking over if has to and no need tonight. Will take him again in Game 5

Why Pacer got the ejection last night still don't get...

Game in Denver was strange. Both teams played bad. SGA showed up in the end. Jokic didn't.
Very poor and strange playoffs for Jokic. Angry, frustrated, making bad calls. Really not the player we saw all the years.
I guess we will know the reason in the summer...

I think Jokic is just absolutely exhausted from carrying this team all year. His shooting percentages all around have taken a nosedive the past 7 games - he even missed 2 big FTs last night and that never happens.

 

[Inspekdah]

I think Jokic is just absolutely exhausted from carrying this team all year. His shooting percentages all around have taken a nosedive the past 7 games - he even missed 2 big FTs last night and that never happens.

Yeah, his legs are toast. Thunder by 30 tomorrow.

 

[Patrick9]

Yeah, his legs are toast. Thunder by 30 tomorrow.

Saw the same thing yesterday. He reminded me of my brother-in-law running up and down the court in the fourth quarter. Lumbering and about to fall over. And little confused in what actually was going on around him because he's trying not to puke.

I think Jokic has one more herculean effort in him for this series. Problem is, they need two.

 

[2daBank]

I think Jokic is just absolutely exhausted from carrying this team all year. His shooting percentages all around have taken a nosedive the past 7 games - he even missed 2 big FTs last night and that never happens.

On top of that okc has the 2 big boys along with half the rest the team leaning and pushing on him every chance they get. Think you right he toast, okc has really taken his passing away also and honestly I think he at his very best he not scoring he getting rest the team buckets, outside of Murray nobody else on nugs can really create for themselves (not counting Westbrook).

 

[BiffTFinancial]

On top of that okc has the 2 big boys along with half the rest the team leaning and pushing on him every chance they get. Think you right he toast, okc has really taken his passing away also and honestly I think he at his very best he not scoring he getting rest the team buckets, outside of Murray nobody else on nugs can really create for themselves (not counting Westbrook).

Once OKC figured it out and stopped using Chet on Jokic and using Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams on him (more beef than Chet), he's had to carry one of those big dudes half the game.

 

[divol]

Yeah, about Jokic - it started against Clippers, so while obviously Zubic and Hartenstein do a great job, I think it's more on Jokic and something he is going through, rather than the defense he faces. I mean he is 3 times MVP and NBA Champion and Finals MVP. He got over the years all kinds of defense that any team can throw at him.

 

[divol]

As for the games tonight, gut feelings on Wolves and Knicks were correct, but didn't take any bets tonight. Even Conley finally scored 11 points (while missing few easy buckets), but didn't have much time yesterday and decided to stay out of the games.

Knicks again found themselves in DD deficit after Q1, but managed to turn things around for the 3rd game out of 4. I understand the idea to live an die by the basketball you believe in, but Mazzulla got to learn to change things a bit. I think that leading by DD at HT, they should have tried to slow the game down, but they didn't.
Tatum's injury didn't effect Game 4, but can be big for Game 5.
In SF, it was almost obvious that tired Butler would have really hard time to carry GSW to a victory. Minny has good defense and that makes it very hard for GSW, because they can play great defense, but they need to score. This game it was actually the defense that collapsed, but I think it got to do with fatigue. They tried to put pressure on Wolves and for that, you need that extra step to get to the free man that usually gets left and they didn't have it. Maybe they should have played more traditional defense, since they got the defenders to play solid 1 on 1 basketball...

 

[divol]

Tonight took RW Over 14.5 P+A and Tyrese Over 16.5 points. Westbrook will try the best he can to play well in Oklahoma and he been actually decent this postseason. Covered them easily in two games in OKC, while failing to do that in Denver. Tyrese, follow up bet. Still believe that when Indiana will need him, he will be there. Two games straight it was blowouts by one of the teams, so no heroics were needed. The total keeps dropping and it's a good thing

As for the games - line in Cleveland feels short. If Mitchell playing and maybe even if he is out, I think Cavs will want to respond tonight, even if they end up losing the series. They still got depth and talent. On the other hand, with Mitchell ? and pretty heave spread, probably will wait live.
In Oklahoma pivotal Game 5 and the line feels too high. Thunder obviously can trash Denver, but overall, besides Game 2, Denver proved they can stay in the game, no matter if it's low scoring or high scoring game. I like Over 100.5 for Denver tonight. Again, feels a bit overreaction to Game 4 in my eyes. Denver covered that number in 6 games straight against OKC till Game 4 and covered it for 7 games straight (including LAC series) before that as well. Maybe it can happen again, but a chance such low scoring being a glitch is higher imho. Took the Over 100.5 - so 3 bets today - first time this postseason I think...

 

[divol]

Split the bets 2 - 1, but plus is a plus. Felling ok about all plays.
Didn't see yet the game in Cleveland, so will write thoughts later, but huge comeback from Pacers, huge game from Tyrese and we probably in for Pacers - Knicks series second year straight.

As for the game in OKC - Thunder played one hell of a defense. I don't know if Denver missing open three pointers allowed them to close the paint like that, but it was great work on D. Denver paying the price for having almost non existent bench and more important, not having even one true 3 point expert there. RW and Porter had a bad night and that was it for Denver.
Jokic gave amazing game, I do think though he should have been benched for 2 mins at some point in 2nd half - played him too much. I also think he played finally much easier - he let the game come to him, light touches - things I missed from him the first 3 games and the scoreboard agrees with me.
While Dort is the one that won the game for OKC, I loved (again) to see Chet play. He somehow doesn't get enough credit, but I like the way he can run the ball, shoot three pointers, block, rebound - he is the full package. Poor man's Wembanyama so to speak. When he came to the league, I thought the hype was too big because he is too thin, but he proves me wrong.

 

[divol]

Grabbed me Under TT 112 Oklahoma in Game 6. Feeling the total is too high. Oklahoma scored 92 and 102 in Denver this series and 102 and 122 in regular season. Denver will come to play for their lives and while shots can come and go, defense should be there.

 

[B.A.R.]

Grabbed me Under TT 112 Oklahoma in Game 6. Feeling the total is too high. Oklahoma scored 92 and 102 in Denver this series and 102 and 122 in regular season. Denver will come to play for their lives and while shots can come and go, defense should be there.

Makes sense.

Elimination game unders are the way to go this deep into the 2nd round.

Should correlate.

 

[divol]

Not many thoughts on the games tonight.
Boston should win, but don't want to lay points with them. Knicks will try to close tonight.
Minny should roll, but again... The spread keeps me off...

 

[divol]

Took Green Over 14.5 P+A for pocket money, just to make the game a bit more fun
It should be a game that his experience needs to come to play, if GSW wants to stay in the game

 

[divol]

Also like Horford 12.5 p+r

 

[divol]

Decent night. Won the Green bet, made me sweat though
Overall all thoughts were on point. Hate that feeling that finally got right on everything, but bet wise took only one small bet.
Even Conley showed up on offense

 

[divol]

Grabbed me Under TT 112 Oklahoma in Game 6. Feeling the total is too high. Oklahoma scored 92 and 102 in Denver this series and 102 and 122 in regular season. Denver will come to play for their lives and while shots can come and go, defense should be there.

I believed in Thunder before the series started, but right now, I see very even series and Thunder struggle too often on offense. Denver in all games but one, found a way to stay in the game. Today Denver comes fighting for their playoff lives. I think that role players will play better today, as usually home/road differences, but it will all come down to defense.
Line I struggle to see value on both sides. 6-7 points, would have taken Denver. Even money - you got to like Thunder chances more...
I see it as a game where both teams can struggle to make it to 100 points. 97 - 89 or 102-98 - but I feel that teams will struggle to get to 105 points...

 

[divol]

Was wrong about how the game will evolve, but bet won, so will take it...
Game 7 is always welcome and curious about the line. Denver with extra rest should be in a nice spot.

 

[divol]

+7.5... hoped 9 points or more...

 

[divol]

It's so much easier when you can focus on one game only. Denver today came to win, Oklahoma didn't. All the 50/50 balls, rebounds, everything - you could see Denver simply wanted it more. Not great basketball, but most of the time, the team that wants to win the most, wins.