SEC Week 8 Discussion

[gps_3]

Another brutal week for me personally last week. I had my wife and youngest kid with birthdays over the weekend, so I'd like to use the fact that I was crazy busy as the excuse, but think I'm just going through one of those runs we've all had. May not play anything this week and just see how my leans do, which basically guarantees an undefeated weekend.

Week 8 PR lines:

Auburn -4 vs Arkansas
Missouri -11 vs MTSU
Miss St PK @ UK
LSU -7 vs Ole Miss
Alabama -16 vs aTm
South Carolina -18.5 vs UMASS

Looking forward to more of the great discussion that's been presented in this thread. Good luck guys and gals. May your wagers be true

 

[CrimsonK]

I bet so much ACC and we tend to talk a bit of ACC shop in here so I'll include both sets of my numbers:

Umass @ USCe (Noon) -18/52 - If USCe can find any offense this season for a game it will be here
aTm @ Alabama (3:30) -10/59.5 -Great spot for aTm off bye and Bama off Tenn romp
MTSU @ Mizzou (4:00) -8.5/70.5 - Had this one circled for weeks
Arkansas @ Auburn (6:00) -6/54.5 -Great spot for Aub off bye and Arky on 3rd tough game B2B
Miss St @ UK (7:30) +2.5/52 -I wish I could trust you, Kentucky, but I've seen you choke too many times here
Ole Miss @ LSU (9:00) -3/57 -LSU offense still looks similar to old one but making bigger plays now


Miami @ VT (Thurs) -7.5/54 -Great spot for VT
NC St @ Ville (Noon) -17.5/60.5 -Wonder if teams go bend but dont break offense like Cutcliffe? Terrible spot for NC ST
Cuse @ BC (12:30) -1/49 - Cuse a play by the numbers but feels funny - bad spot
UNC @ UVA (3:30) +7/64.5

 

[CrimsonK]

I bet a few sides this week. This tends to be point in season for me where I'm not betting as big a card unless Alabama plays Tennessee and I can bet everything they offer and set myself up for early retirement.


SEC:

Mizzou -4
MTSU/Mizzou OVER 69.5 -121
UMass/USCe OVER 43
Arkansas +10.5 -111


ACC:

VT -3.5
UVA +10.5
NC State/Louisville UNDER 68
Syracuse/BC UNDER 53.5

Other:

Indiana +4.5
Penn St +21
ULM/New Mexico UNDER 71.5
Wazzou/ASU UNDER 70
Memphis/Navy UNDER 58
Oregon State/Washington UNDER 61

 

[gps_3]

As CK mentioned, Arky and Alabama are in pretty bad spots. As for Alabama, thankfully we got out of those two road games without any major injuries or having to grind out a win in the 4th quarter. I don't think Alabama will suffer any let down emotionally or in preparation this week, the leadership seems pretty strong. As good as he is and will be, I'm not sure Hurts can carry the offense with his arm, so we'll need the run game to be efficient. aTm looks to be pretty average stopping the run, but they have some absolute beasts on the DL. This game will likely cost Cam Robinson even more NFL money because I don't think he can come close to stopping Garrett in pass protection

My initial thought when I saw AU -9 was that the line was way too high. Like I've mentioned, I still don't know what to make of AU this season. They've looked really good against the 3 terrible teams they've played. They looked pretty pedestrian against the 3 good teams they've played. Being a night game off a bye, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game, but Ark seems to play AU tough historically

Ole Miss-LSU is very intriguing to me. LSU has looked like a new team since losing to AU, but it was against Mizzou and S Miss. Ole Miss at 3 losses could be a team teetering on the edge of going off the rails. I know one thing, the LSU fan base is really energized as is the team, so Red Stick is going to be a madhouse these next 2 home games. This smells like an LSU blowout to me

 

[gps_3]

I bet so much ACC and we tend to talk a bit of ACC shop in here so I'll include both sets of my numbers:

Umass @ USCe (Noon) -18/52 - If USCe can find any offense this season for a game it will be here
aTm @ Alabama (3:30) -10/59.5 -Great spot for aTm off bye and Bama off Tenn romp
MTSU @ Mizzou (4:00) -8.5/70.5 - Had this one circled for weeks
Arkansas @ Auburn (6:00) -6/54.5 -Great spot for Aub off bye and Arky on 3rd tough game B2B
Miss St @ UK (7:30) +2.5/52 -I wish I could trust you, Kentucky, but I've seen you choke too many times here
Ole Miss @ LSU (9:00) -3/57 -LSU offense still looks similar to old one but making bigger plays now


Miami @ VT (Thurs) -7.5/54 -Great spot for VT
NC St @ Ville (Noon) -17.5/60.5 -Wonder if teams go bend but dont break offense like Cutcliffe? Terrible spot for NC ST
Cuse @ BC (12:30) -1/49 - Cuse a play by the numbers but feels funny - bad spot
UNC @ UVA (3:30) +7/64.5

I made the VT game the same. I really like that one. Haven't dived into the rest of the card yet

 

[ksimpsc]

May not play anything this week and just see how my leans do, which basically guarantees an undefeated weekend.

haha I hear that. Few weeks ago after a 0-4 week I did the same and went 6-0 unbet. But, it is nice to make sure you are seeing the ball well before putting more cash down. BOL this week

 

[ksimpsc]

I bet so much ACC and we tend to talk a bit of ACC shop in here so I'll include both sets of my numbers:

Umass @ USCe (Noon) -18/52 - If USCe can find any offense this season for a game it will be here

I was surprised to see us -21 and I made the game closer to 17 and thought that may even be a tall order for us. Last week or so there has been a lot of chatter of coach burning Bentley's RS and putting him in at QB this week. I was a bit surprised to hear that but from what was posted on the boards there are a lot of factors as to why they are considering playing him. I assumed we would keep getting McIlwain experience, and since his biggest problem is throwing I figured this would be a great game for him to work it out some. If Bentley does play not sure how it will go. There has been talk for a long time that he is the first QB recruit we have had in a long time that is pretty good, but he is going to be green so I expect it to be a headache type game.

 

[CrimsonK]

I was surprised to see us -21 and I made the game closer to 17 and thought that may even be a tall order for us. Last week or so there has been a lot of chatter of coach burning Bentley's RS and putting him in at QB this week. I was a bit surprised to hear that but from what was posted on the boards there are a lot of factors as to why they are considering playing him. I assumed we would keep getting McIlwain experience, and since his biggest problem is throwing I figured this would be a great game for him to work it out some. If Bentley does play not sure how it will go. There has been talk for a long time that he is the first QB recruit we have had in a long time that is pretty good, but he is going to be green so I expect it to be a headache type game.

I think Champ has to just build for the future. This year is a throw away so I wouldn't burn a red shirt. Mc could grow into the QB of the future, however, I have very little faith in Muschamp and his staff to develop much offensive talent, and he certainly has a long way to go. QB issue is huge right now. You have 4 legit weapons in Samuel, Edwards, Hurst and Turner but underwhelming line and QB play so it's just kinda squandered. I'm sure it hasn't helped that QB has been revolving door and Samuel has been injured most the year also. I hate to say it but I'm just not a fan of your coaching staff and have very little faith in the future.

 

[Grovehard]

As CK mentioned, Arky and Alabama are in pretty bad spots. As for Alabama, thankfully we got out of those two road games without any major injuries or having to grind out a win in the 4th quarter. I don't think Alabama will suffer any let down emotionally or in preparation this week, the leadership seems pretty strong. As good as he is and will be, I'm not sure Hurts can carry the offense with his arm, so we'll need the run game to be efficient. aTm looks to be pretty average stopping the run, but they have some absolute beasts on the DL. This game will likely cost Cam Robinson even more NFL money because I don't think he can come close to stopping Garrett in pass protection

My initial thought when I saw AU -9 was that the line was way too high. Like I've mentioned, I still don't know what to make of AU this season. They've looked really good against the 3 terrible teams they've played. They looked pretty pedestrian against the 3 good teams they've played. Being a night game off a bye, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game, but Ark seems to play AU tough historically

Ole Miss-LSU is very intriguing to me. LSU has looked like a new team since losing to AU, but it was against Mizzou and S Miss. Ole Miss at 3 losses could be a team teetering on the edge of going off the rails. I know one thing, the LSU fan base is really energized as is the team, so Red Stick is going to be a madhouse these next 2 home games. This smells like an LSU blowout to me

There's no way I could back Ole Miss right now after that shit show in Arkansas. Freeze seems to be good for one of those a year, and though his teams have rallied in the past, this feels different. Fans are calling for staff changes and players are bitching on social media. Not that it wasn't already going to be a tough game, but Orgeron desperately wants this W. I found Orgeron's comment about Ole Miss amusing: "I don’t have any memories of that place I want to remember. I’m glad to be an LSU Tiger.” The feeling is mutual Ed.

 

[ksimpsc]

I think Champ has to just build for the future. This year is a throw away so I wouldn't burn a red shirt. Mc could grow into the QB of the future, however, I have very little faith in Muschamp and his staff to develop much offensive talent, and he certainly has a long way to go. QB issue is huge right now. You have 4 legit weapons in Samuel, Edwards, Hurst and Turner but underwhelming line and QB play so it's just kinda squandered. I'm sure it hasn't helped that QB has been revolving door and Samuel has been injured most the year also. I hate to say it but I'm just not a fan of your coaching staff and have very little faith in the future.

Haha thank you for reinforcing my stark outlook. Makes me feel great! :hang:but yes i agree completely with everything you said. First off Debo Samuel has been less than impressive with all the hype he got pre season. Hurst Edwards and Turner are definitely weapons and as you say the QB play has been awful. McIlwain looks about as green as I expected, Perry is mediocre and will show flashes of good throws until he throws the guaranteed interception, and they moved Nunez off QB officially to WR after they realized he wasn't that good.

Coming into the season my biggest concern or question mark was Roper at OC. I personally am not a fan of what he has been doing so far, and I have tried to take it with a grain of salt knowing that the talent is low but I am starting to get a bit more worried as the season progresses.

Agreed we need to build for the future but there has still been a lot of Bentley talk and Muschamp even did a press conference to discuss it and then said pretty much nothing.

 

[M.O.T]

My lines for the week:

Auburn -2.5
Missouri -7
Kentucky +3
LSU -7
Alabama -14.5
South Carolina -18.5

Tiger Stadium is nothing like it used to be, but this weekend should be an exception with the rebs in town, perfect weather, and the 8:00 local kick. I suspect Orgeron wants this one pretty bad as well.

The pace against Southern Miss was concerning to me. USM slowed things down and drained the game, and LSU never made an effort to pick it up. Obviously the big plays made it a moot point in the 3rd quarter, but it really had the feel of a one possession / 10 point game or so. I'm not sure if they wanted to just run it and get out of there, if it was just a reaction to the TOP which was heavily skewed to USM following the first drive, or if it may be how they're planning to approach Ole Miss to try and keep Kelly off the field. Their pace will never be confused with that of the air raid teams, but it felt way more deliberate than normal and was quite a bit different than the Missouri game.

DJ Chark has emerged as a legitimate big play threat after being the talk of off-season camp for two years. He never really had a chance under Miles/Cameron as the touches were limited to a few players. Desean Smith is also a nice matchup at TE. I look for him to get more targets if Moreau's injury lingers as they've run a lot more 12 personnel in the last two games since the change.

I'll post injury news following the press conference at lunch. If I had to guess I would say Fournette tries to give it a go.

 

[gps_3]

Quick Week 7 review:

Here’s a look at the SEC action from the seventh Saturday of the season.

[h=3]ALABAMA 49, TENNESSEE 10[/h]The top-ranked Crimson Tide (7-0 overall, 4-0 in the SEC) jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and didn’t let the host Vols (5-2, 2-2) back in it in the rout. Alabama outgained Tennessee 594-163. The Tide’s rushing attack rolled up 439 yards on 49 carries – 8.9 yards per attempt; the Vols, meanwhile, had 32 yards on 32 carries. It was Alabama’s first 400-yard day on the ground since 1992 against Tulane. The Vols were 3-of-16 on third down and punted 10 times. Alabama scored two more non-offensive touchdowns, giving the Tide 11 this season; Ronnie Harrison returned an interception for a score and Eddie Jackson took back a punt for a TD. The Tide now has scored a non-offensive TD in nine consecutive games. Alabama QB Jalen Hurts ran for three TDs, and RB Bo Scarbrough rushed for one score, on an 85-yard run. It was Tennessee’s 25th consecutive loss to a top-10 team.
[h=3]ARKANSAS 34, OLE MISS 30[/h]The host Razorbacks (5-2, 1-2) beat Ole Miss (3-3, 1-2) for the third season in a row, thanks to a 6-yard run by Jared Cornelius with 2:24 left in the game. Arkansas scored first, then led until Chad Kelly scored on a 17-yard run with 9:00 left in the game to give Ole Miss a 30-27 lead. Arkansas’ game-winning drive started at its 44 with 6:59 left, and Austin Allen was sacked for an 8-yard loss on the first play. Austin kept the drive alive with a 10-yard pass from midfield on fourth-and-4, and Cornelius scored the game-winner six plays later. Arkansas sophomore Rawleigh Williams III ran for a career-high 180 yards; it was his fourth 100-yard game of the season. Kelly accounted for 342 total yards and three TDs, but he was just 18-of-39 for 253 yards, a TD and an interception against a shaky Arkansas secondary. The Hogs ran 83 plays, the Rebels 70.

​

[h=3]VANDERBILT 17, GEORGIA 16[/h]The Commodores (3-4 overall, 1-3 in the SEC) managed just 171 total yards, but that was enough to shock the host Bulldogs (4-3, 2-3). Vandy's win spoiled Kirby Smart's first homecoming as Georgia's coach. Georgia rushed for just 75 yards, though QB Jacob Eason threw for 346. The Bulldogs took a 16-10 lead early in the fourth quarter, but Vandy responded with its lone sustained drive of the game, going 75 yards on eight plays; the drive was capped off by a 2-yard run by Khari Blasingame with 9:43 left and the Commodores held on from there. Georgia's last chance came on a fourth-and-1 play from Vandy's 41 with a bit less than a minute left. The Bulldogs had Nick Chubb lined up at fullback and WR Isaiah McKenzie at tailback, and a pitch sweep to McKenzie was stopped by Vandy LB Zach Cunningham for no gain. Cunningham had 19 tackles. It was the first league road win for Vandy coach Derek Mason, who now is 1-9. In addition, Georgia had won 19 of the past 21 in the series. It was Vandy's first win in Athens since 2006.
[h=3]FLORIDA 40, MISSOURI 14[/h]The host Gators (5-1, 3-1) moved into first place in the SEC East, thanks to three non-offensive TDs. The Gators got pick-sixes from starting CBs Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson in a span of 2:05 in the second quarter en route to a 20-0 halftime lead, and they cruised from there. The third non-offensive TD came on a return of an onside kick by Antonio Callaway with 1:17 left in the game. Florida rushed for 287 yards, with Lamical Perine (106 yards) and Jordan Scarlett (101 yards) rushing for more than 100 each. QB Luke Del Rio, though, struggled, going 18-of-38 for 236 yards, a TD and three interceptions; Mizzou could've have two more picks, but dropped them. Missouri was 4-of-15 on third down and punted 10 times. The Tigers went three-and-out on their first six drives; the next two ended with the pick-sixes. Drew Lock was 4-of-18 for 39 yards and the two interceptions.
[h=3]LSU 45, SOUTHERN MISS 10[/h]Danny Etling completed just 11 passes, but his completions went for 276 yards and three TDs as the host Tigers (4-2) pulled away from a 10-10 halftime tie to hammer the Golden Eagles (4-3). Derrius Guice ran for two TDs in the first five minutes of the second half, and Etling connected on an 80-yard TD pass to D.J. Chark and a 64-yarder with Malachi Dupre later in the quarter to blow things open. Etling connected with Dupre for another TD with five minutes left in the game. Southern Miss took more than eight minutes to go 65 yards for a TD on the game's initial drive, but it finished with just 242 total yards on 73 plays. LSU ran just 42 plays in the game, but gained 459 yards.

 

[gps_3]

My lines for the week:

Auburn -2.5
Missouri -7
Kentucky +3
LSU -7
Alabama -14.5
South Carolina -18.5

Tiger Stadium is nothing like it used to be, but this weekend should be an exception with the rebs in town, perfect weather, and the 8:00 local kick. I suspect Orgeron wants this one pretty bad as well.

The pace against Southern Miss was concerning to me. USM slowed things down and drained the game, and LSU never made an effort to pick it up. Obviously the big plays made it a moot point in the 3rd quarter, but it really had the feel of a one possession / 10 point game or so. I'm not sure if they wanted to just run it and get out of there, if it was just a reaction to the TOP which was heavily skewed to USM following the first drive, or if it may be how they're planning to approach Ole Miss to try and keep Kelly off the field. Their pace will never be confused with that of the air raid teams, but it felt way more deliberate than normal and was quite a bit different than the Missouri game.

DJ Chark has emerged as a legitimate big play threat after being the talk of off-season camp for two years. He never really had a chance under Miles/Cameron as the touches were limited to a few players. Desean Smith is also a nice matchup at TE. I look for him to get more targets if Moreau's injury lingers as they've run a lot more 12 personnel in the last two games since the change.

I'll post injury news following the press conference at lunch. If I had to guess I would say Fournette tries to give it a go.

Didn't watch much of the game, but from what I've read it sounds like the big plays made LSU a much larger winner than maybe it should have been. Was it just LSU having superior athletes? Great execution and play calls? Busted coverages? Looking forward to seeing how they look when the talent levels are a tad more equal

 

[M.O.T]

Also a bit of an offseason look ahead from the LSU perspective as I had this discussion over the weekend. I think most are writing off next season because of the coaching change and expected personnel losses. There are a lot of unknowns. I'm not convinced the admin isn't going to completely botch the hire, and I wouldn't be surprised if the new coach discovers there are a lot of conditioning and practice habit type issues to address.

But speaking strictly from the personnel perspective I don't think the drop is going to be nearly as bad as expected a couple months ago after the way injuries have impacted the two deep this year. On the OL they'll lose a couple seniors who are currently starters, but return 5 who have started this year and 7 of the 9 who have played significant snaps.

The DL will probably lose Godchaux to the NFL early, but may get LaCouture back unexpectedly after his injury in the preseason. Valentine should be improved with an offseason to get in shape after arriving a week into fall camp. He has shown flashes but hasn't been able to play extended snaps to this point. The two biggest bright spots are freshmen Lawrence and Alexander. They will be the difference makers we've been missing the last few years. Overall they will return 6 of the top 9 DL, if you consider the Buck LB a DL, with a wildcard in LaCouture.

I think it's a pretty solid foundation when coupled with a returning starter at QB. Etling is limited but he can complete the short/intermediate throws to keep the chains moving, and appears to understand the game. It sounds simple enough and isn't earth shattering, but has been missing for a while.

Anyway, maybe just something to revisit for those who like to prepare for and play win totals early in the offseason.

 

[M.O.T]

Didn't watch much of the game, but from what I've read it sounds like the big plays made LSU a much larger winner than maybe it should have been. Was it just LSU having superior athletes? Great execution and play calls? Busted coverages? Looking forward to seeing how they look when the talent levels are a tad more equal

All of the above at various times. The first half was sloppy and USM kept the ball for the first 8 minutes of the game on a TD drive that was twice extended by penalties. LSU went three and out on the first drive and scored on the second. It was obvious they had a lot of matchup advantages, but it was almost like they were deliberately slowing the game down. Maybe the perception was made worse by some pre snap penalties, but it was frustrating to watch either way.

They didn't appear to really pick it up in the second half either, but they just started to hit on huge plays. Guice had a massive hole on a 3rd & short and went untouched for 60+. USM fumbled on the next possession to set up a short field TD. Later in the 3Q Chark hooked up for about 12-15 yards in a zone off a first down play action, slipped a tackle, and took it 80 for a score. The next possession was another one play TD on a long play action pass to Dupre. Not sure if it was a true "bust" or if his guy was lulled to sleep and bit too hard on the run fake, but the only defender near Dupre was a DB from the other side of the field who almost made it over to break it up once he realized what was going on and bailed on his guy.

After the way the first half was played I never would have expected them to hit 40, and if not for the chunk plays they wouldn't have. But I also had the feeling it was there for the taking whenever they wanted. That's why the pace and lack of urgency was so frustrating and confusing. They did say last week they wanted to hit more deep balls, so maybe they were intentionally trying to set up some of the play action shots. I don't know, it was just a weird game.

ETA: Just went back to check the drive chart. They scored four TDs on the first 10 plays of the second half, which included a three and out.

 

[Timh]

I bet a few sides this week. This tends to be point in season for me where I'm not betting as big a card unless Alabama plays Tennessee and I can bet everything they offer and set myself up for early retirement.

VT -3.5
Indiana +4.5
UVA +10.5
Mizzou -4
Penn St +21

LOL Crimson, glad you nailed it and wish I had played more on it. I thought maybe we would get a decent 2h line, but was surprised it opened at 7 and that didn't make any sense to me with original side bet.

 

[gps_3]

Not a good look Tennessee:

Shoop: "I hear they honor officials of the week in Alabama, too. They were the guys that called our game on Saturday."

 

[CrimsonK]

Prob just read this subtle dig from Saban:

[FONT=&quot]"We have to keep improving in the passing game and get Jalen comfortable, because when we play really good teams, some of these runs aren't going to be quite so easy. The plays that are there to be made in the passing game, we're going to need to make."[/FONT]

 

[ProV1Colt]

Not a good look Tennessee:

Shoop: "I hear they honor officials of the week in Alabama, too. They were the guys that called our game on Saturday."

Ridiculous quote. I understand we had 15-20 starters injured but come on.
I just hope we can win out and get a rematch with this weeks winner. (That is if Florida loses one)
And again I will bet the house and EVERYTHING in it on the Bama. Very profitable week me.

 

[ProV1Colt]

As for the Vols this BYE week is much needed.
We got pushed around on both lines. Couldn't tackle, no run defense.
Just a shit show on Sat.

We got Carolina, TnTech, KentLucky, Mizzu & Vandy left. There could be 1 loss in there if they play like they did on Saturday

Vols have lost 26 straight to top 10 teams, dating to 2005. Loses by coach: Butch Jones 11, Derek Dooley 8, Lane Kiffin 2, Philip Fulmer 5

 

[M.O.T]

Update following the presser, Fournette and Clapp will practice and play this week but how much will depend on what they look like during the week. Weathersby and Moreau still sound doubtful. Sorry there isn't more, the Baton Rouge media is pretty worthless when it comes to asking questions of substance. We don't know why the pace was what it was last week, if the guys playing through injuries are getting better or worse, etc. But we know what Orgeron thinks about his role in The Blind Side and how he decided to change his style after being fired at Ole Miss. The latter has been discussed for three weeks but since they're playing Ole Miss this week I guess everyone needed to hear about it again.

 

[twinkie13]

As CK mentioned, Arky and Alabama are in pretty bad spots. As for Alabama, thankfully we got out of those two road games without any major injuries or having to grind out a win in the 4th quarter. I don't think Alabama will suffer any let down emotionally or in preparation this week, the leadership seems pretty strong. As good as he is and will be, I'm not sure Hurts can carry the offense with his arm, so we'll need the run game to be efficient. aTm looks to be pretty average stopping the run, but they have some absolute beasts on the DL. This game will likely cost Cam Robinson even more NFL money because I don't think he can come close to stopping Garrett in pass protection

My initial thought when I saw AU -9 was that the line was way too high. Like I've mentioned, I still don't know what to make of AU this season. They've looked really good against the 3 terrible teams they've played. They looked pretty pedestrian against the 3 good teams they've played. Being a night game off a bye, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game, but Ark seems to play AU tough historically

Ole Miss-LSU is very intriguing to me. LSU has looked like a new team since losing to AU, but it was against Mizzou and S Miss. Ole Miss at 3 losses could be a team teetering on the edge of going off the rails. I know one thing, the LSU fan base is really energized as is the team, so Red Stick is going to be a madhouse these next 2 home games. This smells like an LSU blowout to me

Hope you are right, but not sure it will be. Ole Miss defense looks awful, so we will have that. But Ole Miss has hung with some pretty good teams, only to fuck it up. Magnolia Bowl, they will be up for.....

If I am Ole MIss, I throw at Donte' Jackson more often then not....

Is Toliver back yet?

 

[Grovehard]

[video=youtube;g9n_N-GCd3k]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9n_N-GCd3k[/video]

Following up on our Mullen conversation from last week, does this guy look like he's going to be around for much longer?

 

[M.O.T]

Toliver played on special teams last week, didn't play defense because of team rules violation. Valentine didn't play either because of practice effort. I expect both to be back this week.

 

[twinkie13]

Toliver played on special teams last week, didn't play defense because of team rules violation. Valentine didn't play either because of practice effort. I expect both to be back this week.

Need Toliver

Like Donte', but boy he has been over commiting quite a bit......I know Toliver was suspended, we will need him

 

[twinkie13]

[video=youtube;g9n_N-GCd3k]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9n_N-GCd3k[/video]

Following up on our Mullen conversation from last week, does this guy look like he's going to be around for much longer?

wow

 

[gps_3]

[h=1]BIGGEST WEAKNESS ON EVERY TOP-10 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAM[/h]Which looming issues could potentially hurt the teams at the top?

STEVE PALAZZOLO | 8 HOURS AGO

(Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

​

It’s difficult to hide weaknesses as the sample size of the season increases, and usually in big games, even the best teams will have their weakest links exposed. That’s not to say that every team is destined to lose along the way, but there are elements to each team that run the risk of holding them down in any given week. Is the passing game being protected by a strong running game? Is the pass rush being helped by strong coverage on the back end?
While it may be hard to find weaknesses on many of the top teams, if we dig deep, there are always potential issues looming — especially if the rest of the team is unable to overcome in any given week.
Here’s a look at the biggest weaknesses for each of the top teams in the nation:
[Editor’s note: The ranking of the top 10 is based off PFF’s Top 25, which you can read here.]
[h=3]1. Alabama: Passing under pressure[/h]It’s not an easy task finding a weakness for Alabama, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they’re loaded at every level. It’s also difficult to highlight a weakness on an offense that has rarely been slowed down this season. However, if there is something that might slow the offense it’s true freshman QB Jalen Hurts’ work under pressure. While the entire body of work has been impressive this season, especially for a freshman, Hurts has a massive drop-off when pressured as his completion percentage drops from 75.4 percent to 25.6 percent. Hurts is a dynamic runner, but he’s shown the usual freshmen inconsistency when throwing the ball down field, so it’s something to monitor as the season progresses.
[h=3]2. Ohio State: Pass game[/h]While QB J.T. Barrett is coming off one of his best games as a passer against Wisconsin, he’s also one week removed from a 9-for-21, 93-yard effort against Indiana. Barrett has been outstanding as a runner and he brings a dynamic threat to the Ohio State offense both in the designed running game and as a scrambler. However, he’s still inconsistent as a passer and despite his impressive passing stats, he’s as much a product of the downfield ability of WR Noah Brown and after-the-catch skills of RB/WR hybrids Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson. There’s nothing wrong with being a distributor in that offense, however there are games in which Barrett will need to be relied upon as a passer and his No. 40 passing grade (out of 80 qualifiers) against Power-5 competition may get exposed along the way.
[h=3][/h][h=3]3. Clemson: Turnovers[/h]Clemson is doing their best to through old football adages out the window as they continue to lose the turnover battle while still finding a way to win. Only four teams have turned it over more than Clemson’s 16 as they’ve lost eight fumbles and thrown eight interceptions. The turnovers nearly cost them against Louisville and more recently they were a field goal away from losing to NC State, so while they’ve survived to this point, they’ve been playing with fire all season. The timeliness of the turnovers has made them even worse, whether a goal line fumble, red zone interception from QB Deshaun Watson or the pick-six Watson threw at the beginning of the second half against NC State. Clemson has survived the sloppiness for now, and perhaps they have it all out of their system, but their undefeated goals likely can’t survive the turnovers for much longer.
[h=3]4. Michigan: Quarterback[/h]There’s little to complain about on the Michigan defense as they rush the passer as well as any team in the country and cover on the back end just as well. Coming into the season, we expected that kind of elite defensive performance, but the questions always surrounded the offense, particularly the quarterback position. Wilton Speight won the heated battle in training camp, but the position still remains the biggest weakness on the team and perhaps a hurdle they’ll have to clear along the way in order to keep their undefeated season intact. Look no further than the Wisconsin game to see Speight struggle against a good team as he threw a number of dangerous passes into coverage. Speight’s 63.9 season grade is concerning, even with a defense as good as Michigan’s.
[h=3]5. Washington: Pass blocking[/h]Not only is Washington one of the top stories of the season with their surge toward the College Football Playoff, they’re also a well-rounded team with few areas to nitpick. If there’s a place to highlight, it’s pass protection as QB Jake Browning has been pressured on 33.2 percent of his dropbacks, the 39[SUP]th[/SUP]-highest rate out of the top 136 qualifiers. Even with Browning ranking as one of the nation’s best quarterback when pressured the last two seasons, it’s not a recipe for success and one that Washington will need to shore up against better pass-rushing teams.
[h=3]6. Louisville: Offensive line[/h]The beauty of having an efficient running quarterback is that the offensive line does not have to dominate in order to succeed offensively. The mobile quarterback allows the offense to outnumber the defense in order to gain yards, so the offensive line doesn’t even have to win in order for players like Heisman front-runner QB Lamar Jackson to succeed. That’s been the case this season where Louisville’s offensive line has struggled in the run game and in pass protection. While Jackson will always be there to protect the line, getting better movement at the point of attack and doing a better job of keeping Jackson clean (completion percentage drops from 61.6 percent in clean pocket to 46.2 percent under pressure) will make life easier for Louisville down the stretch.
[h=3]7. Texas A&M: Tackling[/h]No team had missed more tackles than Texas A&M’s 90 coming into Week 7 and they have whiffed on 21.3 percent of their attempts, third-highest in the nation. Their 31-miss effort against Tennessee in Week 6 nearly cost them their undefeated season. Safeties Armani Watts and Justin Evans lead all safeties with 15 and 14 missed tackles respectively, and while both players have played well overall, the tackling must be better on the back end. Overall, the Texas A&M defense has had an excellent season behind a strong defensive front, but the tackling woes have led to far too many big plays.

[h=3]8. Nebraska: Pass game[/h]Despite his experience, QB Tommy Armstrong still experiences far too many ups and downs as a passer. Look no further than last week against Illinois as he finished with a 41.5 grade for the game and now sits at 63.0 for the season. Accuracy has never been Armstrong’s strength and his adjusted completion percentage of 65.1 percent ranks 101[SUP]st[/SUP] out of the top 136 qualifiers, so while Nebraska has strong enough pieces to win games without a top-notch passing game, a more efficient attack would go a long way for the Huskers.
[h=3]9. West Virginia: Pass rush[/h]As impressive as the defense has been this season, they’ve done it largely without pressuring the quarterback. Much of this is scheme-based as West Virginia’s 3-3-5 attack sends only three rushers 50.0 percent of the time, but they’ve only pressured the quarterback 22.3 percent of the time this season (NCAA avg is 29.5 percent) and the three-man rush has picked up pressure only 6.5 percent of the time. While the scheme is certainly limiting, and the quick-passing attacks of the Big 12 make it difficult to get to the quarterback, West Virginia could stand to get to the quarterback more efficiently.
[h=3]10. Baylor: Deep ball[/h]This may come as a surprise as Baylor’s passing game is predicated on screens, curls and go-routes, but the deep ball has been less efficient than it was a year ago at this time. Losing first-round wide receiver Corey Coleman certainly hurts, but through seven weeks in 2015, QB Seth Russell ranked fifth in the nation with an adjusted completion percentage of 51.1 percent and his 751 deep passing yards also ranked fifth. Russell also led the nation with 12 touchdowns on the deep ball. This season he now ranks 66[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 120 qualifiers with an adjusted completion percentage of 37.8 on deep passes and his 557 yards rank 16[SUP]th[/SUP] while his four touchdowns are tied for 37[SUP]th[/SUP]. The deep pass is such a major staple in Baylor’s offense, the drop-off is concerning and one that Baylor needs if they’re going to make a run at staying undefeated.

 

[CrimsonK]

Auburn steaming like crazy. Just grabbed Hogs +10.5 -111

 

[CrimsonK]

Some totals I bet:

Nc State/Louisville UNDER 68
UMass/USCe OVER 43
ULM/New Mexico UNDER 71.5
Wazzou/ASU UNDER 70
Memphis/Navy UNDER 58
Oregon State/Washington UNDER 61
MTSU/Mizzou OVER 69.5

 

[ksimpsc]

I was thinking the MTSU total would be a good look but I am seeing 74.5 lol

You like the cocks over? Number is lower than I expected but surprised to see you on that one. BOL

 

[UTSUX]

Auburn steaming like crazy. Just grabbed Hogs +10.5 -111

AUBURN favored by that much seems crazy.

 

[CrimsonK]

I was thinking the MTSU total would be a good look but I am seeing 74.5 lol

You like the cocks over? Number is lower than I expected but surprised to see you on that one. BOL

Re: Cocks - If it was 56.5 I would have bet the under. It was shockingly 43 so I bet the over. That certainly wasn't a total I expected them to release so I was surprised I bet it also but I have it as a 35-17 type game and at 43 I've got some wiggle.

The more I was looking at MTSU/Mizzou the more my initial opinion at 70.5 was prob a tad low and I think 74.5 prob a better forecast. I'll say this, there isn't a number they could realistically hang where I would bet under, I don't think. I'll give thoughts on all the games throughout week.

 

[CrimsonK]

AUBURN favored by that much seems crazy.

Agree. Not that long ago they were +3 to LSU and +4 to aTm at home. Now they are -10.5.... This is the same Auburn team that has one home win versus SEC teams in like their last 8 or so tries and that was the game that LSU won but then lost and then canned Miles lol. I get it's a bad spot for Arky and Aub is improving but just like Vandy is a thorn in the ass to UGA, Arky is that to Aub. I'll take my chances that Aub isn't a top 10 team yet

 

[CrimsonK]

I was thinking the MTSU total would be a good look but I am seeing 74.5 lol

You like the cocks over? Number is lower than I expected but surprised to see you on that one. BOL

It's settled back dow at 72 now if you're still interested. My gut says that may be best price from here on

 

[CrimsonK]

Here are the rest of my P5:

Rutgers @ Minn (Noon) -17.5/44.5 (Assuming Leidner - Gut says Rutgers)
Wisconsin @ Iowa (Noon) +2.5/42.5
Indiana @ NW (Noon) +3/54
Illinois @ Michigan (3:30) -35/54 -Who knows who Illini will field at QB
Purdue @ Nebraska (3:30) -21.5/55 - Hazell fired - I dont care about game. No clue
Michigan State @ Maryland (7:30) PICK/48 -Not sure what to do with this/these QBs - under or nada
Ohio State @ Penn State (8:00) +14.5/54 - Great spot for improving PSU - I circled game pre-season to take +


Ok State @ Kansas (Noon) +23.5/64
Texas @ Kansas State (Noon) -4/56.5 (Assuming Ertz)
TCU @ WVU (3:30) -2.5/65 -Gut says TCU
Oklahoma @ TT (8:00) +14/76.5 -Hard to say what happens here with TT - Mahommes doesn't look right and OK should score as many as they want despite it being a good spot for TT


Oregon @ Cal (Fri) -6.5/84.5 (Assuming healthy Webb and Hansen)
Colorado @ Stanford (3:00) PICK/48.5 -Colorado much better team right now but game feels weird - they decimated ASU)
Utah @ UCLA (4:00) +2.5/45.5 (Assuming Rosen Out - backup wasnt bad though)
Oregon State @ Washington (6:30) -39.5/49 (Oregon St 3rd string QB)
Wazzou @ ASU (10:00) +6.5/62.5

 

[cubsker]

I feel like this has turned into a cfb discussion thread, not an sec thread, which is a good thing. i'll give some thoughts on a few of these games. I'd like to state again that I don't have PRs, did a shitty job of preseason prep, and am not following near as closely as years past. However, I am still watching quite a bit on Saturday and follow the major conferences pretty well.

I bet:

Wisky -3 - I view Wisky having the edge when they have the ball and when they don't. Iowa OL isn't up to par and they're beat up as well. They lack any skill players that you fear. Wisky with an improving offense and the Iowa D can be had. You're getting a better version of NDSt. basically with much, much better skill players. Bit of a bad spot for wisky, but this is a rivalry game - I think they'll be ready and they're just the significantly better team.

Arky +10 - enough said on this one.

Other thoughts, no bets on these yet.

I think Michigan names the score vs Illinois. Illinois offense just can't do anything here and their defense is nothing special at all. OLB is really bad.

Mahomes is hurt, but he isn't really any good either way. The OU pass D can be had. They're worse than WV right now at defending the spread type stuff, so their defense is the big concern here. On offense, OU is going to do unspeakable things to the Tech D. OU offense playing at a high level with Westbrook in there. They lose SP at RB, but Mixon is just fine.

Neb is beat to hell. Bunch of injuries on the OL led to probably the worst 2 qtrs (2nd and 3rd) of OL play I've ever seen in a major college game. Armstrong is very good at eluding the rush. If you put even just an avg mobility QB back there, Indiana would have had like 10 sacks and that's not an exaggeration. Neb was that bad. Westy and Carter prob still out. Ozigbo and Moore each played only a couple of snaps vs Indy. Next two weeks after this one are at wisky and at ohio st, so this is a total throwaway game. just make sure you win it and get the game over with as soon as possible. Neb Defense is making significant improvements. DL played great. Secondary is very good. LB are good enough so far. Under is def interesting here.

 

[CrimsonK]

AUBURN favored by that much seems crazy.

Any thoughts on how LDR looked to you coming back? I think I have the ticket of the year for the cocktail party, I have your Gators PICK. I know that game provides no shortage of funky outcomes but my gosh I think that's an abysmal line. 10 points should cash it

 

[CrimsonK]

I feel like this has turned into a cfb discussion thread, not an sec thread, which is a good thing. i'll give some thoughts on a few of these games. I'd like to state again that I don't have PRs, did a shitty job of preseason prep, and am not following near as closely as years past. However, I am still watching quite a bit on Saturday and follow the major conferences pretty well.

I bet:

Wisky -3 - I view Wisky having the edge when they have the ball and when they don't. Iowa OL isn't up to par and they're beat up as well. They lack any skill players that you fear. Wisky with an improving offense and the Iowa D can be had. You're getting a better version of NDSt. basically with much, much better skill players. Bit of a bad spot for wisky, but this is a rivalry game - I think they'll be ready and they're just the significantly better team.

Arky +10 - enough said on this one.

Other thoughts, no bets on these yet.

I think Michigan names the score vs Illinois. Illinois offense just can't do anything here and their defense is nothing special at all. OLB is really bad.

Mahomes is hurt, but he isn't really any good either way. The OU pass D can be had. They're worse than WV right now at defending the spread type stuff, so their defense is the big concern here. On offense, OU is going to do unspeakable things to the Tech D. OU offense playing at a high level with Westbrook in there. They lose SP at RB, but Mixon is just fine.

Neb is beat to hell. Bunch of injuries on the OL led to probably the worst 2 qtrs (2nd and 3rd) of OL play I've ever seen in a major college game. Armstrong is very good at eluding the rush. If you put even just an avg mobility QB back there, Indiana would have had like 10 sacks and that's not an exaggeration. Neb was that bad. Westy and Carter prob still out. Ozigbo and Moore each played only a couple of snaps vs Indy. Next two weeks after this one are at wisky and at ohio st, so this is a total throwaway game. just make sure you win it and get the game over with as soon as possible. Neb Defense is making significant improvements. DL played great. Secondary is very good. LB are good enough so far. Under is def interesting here.

Thanks for sharing, cub. I agree with you about how Wisky should own the trenches. I only caught pieces of last week's game but the parts I saw, they def showed me a lot more on offense than I had seen from them earlier in the year so perhaps I'm not up to speed on their offense. I was really hoping for a decent total to bet under but no surprise it was totaled, IMO, appropriately. Situationally, I think it's a concern if I were to look to back Wisky. To lose in the way they did and then the brunch slot with Beth Mowins, just tough.

I def don't disagree with Mich. Look ahead prob not as pronounced this year with the way Sparty has been playing but again I'm sure Jim hasn't forgotten how that went down last year. I can't bring myself to lay these types of numbers most times but I think a 45-3 is entirely possible.

I'm almost 10 points off on my total in Lubbock and I'm not in a hurry to bet it. Partly because betting under there is dangerous for my heart health and partly because I just don't have a clue. I like Mahomes a good bit when healthy - surprised to hear you don't like him. I think he has been one of the better QB they've had when at his prime. Spread and total reflect 49-35.5. Little known fact to me that I heard today, WVU the #2 scoring defense against P5 opponents behind only Michigan. WVU confuses me as does TT so I really am not sure what to take from that last game? My total is prob bad but I want no part of it

Thanks for the Nebby info. I have seen less of them this year than any other P5 east of Mississippi. I didn't feel confident in my total there really but perhaps under is worth a deeper look. If Purdue hires Les Miles before Saturday I'll lock in the UNDER for sure

 

[CrimsonK]

Thoughts on Mizzou/MTSU:

Mizzou has played WVU, UF and LSU so far. That's you're # 2, 4 and 17th ranked scoring defenses nationally. They scored 11, 7 and 14 against elite defenses. The middle of the pack defense, UGA, they scored 27. Against bad defenses, EMU and Delaware St, they scored 61 and 79. When Missouri can create space with their WR, and they will be able to for sure in this game, they will go nuts offensively. MTSU pass defense has gotten tagged this season against teams that can pass - La tech 36/59 for 504 yards and 3 TD, North Texas 33/54 for 303 yards and 1 TD and last week WKU 29/40 for 391 yards 2 TD 1 INT. So that's good for 64% completions and 399 ypg. Fortunately for MTSU, they have a great offense of their own. They complete 64% of their passes for 366 ypg and have a 19/6 ratio. The Mizzou defense has taken a step back this season but the main issues as I see them are not being able to stop the run when facing superior athletes - I do think they should do fine against MTSU ground game I imagine the tops they give up is 150 but I I think MTSU could get close to their 366 passing average as well. MTSU hasn't faced an offense that I think will run the ball as well as Mizzou should, esp given the pace at which the game should be played. This is an MTSU team that lost 47-24 at Vanderbilt. Those 47 points by Vanderbilt are more than the Dores have scored in their previous 103 games combined dating back to late 1900's. I briefly mentioned pace but this should be played at warp speed for 60 minutes. MTSU was a 3 point dog at Vandy in the aforementioned game this year and now +4 at Mizzou - no way Jose. Mizzou has struggled against exactly who they shoukd have struggled with and showed incredible promise in the Heupel offense when they were supposed to - they are supposed to here and I cant imagine a more significant 4 game roller coaster of class than Del St, LSU, UF, MTSU. I don;t think they score 79 again but I fully expect them to get to the 40's and beyond. 48-31

 

[twinkie13]

Someone make me a Nebby vs. LSU neutral please?

 

[twinkie13]

That would be a really interesting line I think...

 

[CrimsonK]

Thoughts on Arky/Aub:

9-17
19-27
13-20
13-29
16-29
18-13

No, those aren't the top 6 passing performances from LSU QBs the past decade, those are the scores of Auburn home games against SEC teams dating back to start of 2015. Now Auburn is laying 2 scores? This may be a "sucker bet" and if I lose it then so be it, I took 2 scores with a very comparable opponent with a coach/program that is a dirty ol' dog at 11-5 ATS past 3 seasons. The situation is def not ideal for Arky - crushed by Bama at home, huge home win against hated rival and now trip to the plains to play a confident and rested Tiger team. I do buy the Auburn defense I think they are very good. I don't buy the offense. Gus hasn't been great ATS off bye just 2-3 ATS last 3 years as a timing offense like theirs can often be disrupted. The line just has gone too far - AUburn was a dog to both LSU and aTm earlier this season and now -10.5. I really love the Hogs offense and I really do like Allen to have success should Auburn really load up the box. I think the Arky offense can have success against the Auburn defense and Allen has shown even against a good DL like Bama and Ole Miss he can lead this team and score points - they just threw for 400 against Bama in scoring 30 and hogged the ball last week and scored 34 against an OM defense that had realy shown signs of improvement. If it's 31-14 late I feel good about the potential for a back door should that be the route it goes. Last year Arky won 54-46 in 4 OT as 7 point favorites. 30-24

 

[CrimsonK]

Someone make me a Nebby vs. LSU neutral please?

LSU somewhere between -3 and -7, I guess

 

[gps_3]

LSU -4.5 is what I make it

 

[twinkie13]

CK what was the open for Arky game?
Aubbie front 7 as good as anyone as you said.....my one fear would be IF AU has found the QB and rallies around him and plays an a real inspired effort at JH

Is this the game ARK turns into the beast? After ole piss game?
I don't know...I agree it looks high at 1st blush......but something looks off

 

[CrimsonK]

[video=youtube;g9n_N-GCd3k]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9n_N-GCd3k[/video]

Following up on our Mullen conversation from last week, does this guy look like he's going to be around for much longer?

If I wouldnt have known any better I would have thought it was 5 AM and he just ran out of blow and had no more money left.

 

[CrimsonK]

CK what was the open for Arky game?
Aubbie front 7 as good as anyone as you said.....my one fear would be IF AU has found the QB and rallies around him and plays an a real inspired effort at JH

Is this the game ARK turns into the beast? After ole piss game?
I don't know...I agree it looks high at 1st blush......but something looks off

I think 7.5 was the first I saw Sunday. Slowly crept up and got all the way up to 10.5 when I bet it today but got knocked back down within 90 seconds to 10

I def have concerns they are just concerns I can live with. I have lots of concerns with every bet I make!

 

[M.O.T]

I would have that one LSU -3.5

Another potential OL injury situation to monitor, RG Boutte missed practice this afternoon. It isn't believed to be serious but worth keeping an eye on. Reshuffled first 5 today from L to R...Malone, Clapp, Pocic, Brumfield, Teuhema.

I've lost count of how many different combinations this would be, hopefully he'll be back.

 

[cubsker]

depends on if Neb is healthy or not. They lack depth on the OL big time - they're playing a sophomore walkon as the first guy off the bench right now and are trying like hell not to pull redshirts off what was a real good class of OL recruits. They can cover in the secondary and they do a pretty good job of stopping the RB. Getting better each week at pressuring the QB. Mobile QBs can give them some problems as they're not particularly athletic at DE and LB.

If you run out what they did a few days ago, you're probably talking like LSU -6. If Neb gets healthy on the OL and at WR and Armstrong, it's prob like -2.5.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thoughts on UMass/USCe:

USCe coming off hard fought loss at home to UGA two weeks ago and then had the bye last week. UMass coming down the coast after a 56-28 loss to La Tech where they allowed LT 9.8 ypp on 685 yards offense. LT is one of the best big play teams in country right now and USCe certainly has to be considered one of the worst but it's nice to see this could be a game where USCe has the ability to score. Miss St actually traveled to UMass earlier in the year and their anemic offense managed to 47 points, gain 572 yards offense at 6.57 ypp. The good news there, Umass managed to score 35 points on 400 yards offense at 5.80 ypp. Umass is very poor on defense in general but particularly defending the pass and this is a game where I believe the talented trio for the Cocks can get space and actually find the end zone. Carolina's offensive numbers are atrocious - they are about the worst in CFB in ypc and also I believe they may be without a passing TD on the year. Safe to say, it't a good time to do some scoring here and help the fans forget that they hired Muschamp and he decided to hire Roper. Carolina WR's getting healthier and that's big. Carolina has really nice pass defense numbers but have only played two above average passing attacks - ECU and aTm (who was without starting RT and 2 of top WR in game) and the rest they've played are trash. Pace should be average and likely more Umass passing as that is their strength and they should trail most of the game. 35-17