SEC Week 11 Discussion

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Figured I’d go ahead and start it before Twinkie starts one that goes off the rails

LSU @ Alabama

Vandy @ Florida

Arkansas vs WKU

Ole Miss vs NMST

Mizzou @ UGA

SC vs App St

Tennessee @ UK
 
Vandy +25 is one ugly bet but Florida is done. No chance in hell they show up this week.

Buy low is now on Arkansas. Only -2.5 at home vs a team that can't score is enough.

Expecting LSU to be a very popular dog this week and the line to move down all week.
 
LSU TT over ? At least we know how great the LSU offense is this year and how subpar the Tide D is compare to past years.
 
It was 10 in futures as recently as two weeks ago. I’m not sure if the Auburn game was that much of a mover for LSU or if it may be tilted to him not being 100%.

I think it’s a product of the books thinking Tua plays, but not being sure enough to expose themselves to a bunch of LSU +10 bets if he doesn’t. “Game time decision” is not what the books wanted
 
I think it’s a product of the books thinking Tua plays, but not being sure enough to expose themselves to a bunch of LSU +10 bets if he doesn’t. “Game time decision” is not what the books wanted
This
 
Vandy +25 is one ugly bet but Florida is done. No chance in hell they show up this week.

Buy low is now on Arkansas. Only -2.5 at home vs a team that can't score is enough.

Expecting LSU to be a very popular dog this week and the line to move down all week.

I had Vandy last week then thankfully hedged out at halftime.

The only way I could possibly take them is if 1) Mo Hasan is QB (was QB vs Mizzou - been in concussion protocol for 2 weeks) or 2) Riley Neil is QB. I like option 2 less than option 1. The third option and is a no go for me is if Duece Wallace is the QB - awful. Agree that line is huge and situation is bad for Gators, but I need to have Vandy do something on O and Wallace can't do anything.

Agree on Arkansas even though I got burned big time last week, but love that line. Don't see it as a sucker line...because, I mean, this is a team that already lost at home vs San Jose St and lost at home to North Texas last year. So there is precedent for Hogs to lose games like this. Worry is that WKU D might actually be able to slow down this rag tag OL and turnover prone O.
 
You think Burrow goes at Shyheim and Tua at Vincent as many think?

Maybe. I expect LSU to try to isolate the freshmen LBs more than anything. Tua's going to take what the defense gives him. With the 4 WR we have, there will be plays to be made. Will have to block well to keep Tua upright
 
Here's what my PR say:

Alabama -10

Florida -27.5

UGA -17

Kentucky -2.5
 
Looks to be a clean track Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Sunny and mid 50s.

Weather can be dicey this time of year. Good to see it's likely a non-factor.
 
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Well, this isn't good

Chad Morris says Cheyenne O'Grady will 'step away' from Razorbacks football team

A bumpy road for Arkansas tight end CJ O’Grady has come to an end after not playing in Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State.

Author: CBS News, THV11 Digital

Published: 12:17 PM CST November 4, 2019

Updated: 12:40 PM CST November 4, 2019

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — A bumpy road for Arkansas tight end CJ O’Grady has come to an end after not playing in Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State.

When asked about the O’Grady following the game, Chad Morris said O’Grady was suspended and did not mention reasoning. He added the two would meet on Sunday to discuss the future.

On Monday, Morris announced at a press conference that the two agreed the O'Grady would "step away" from the football program.

RELATED: O'Grady selected for Mackey Watch List

Saturday was the third time O’Grady has been suspended in his career as a Razorback. The first came from Bret Bielema, while he was arrested as a true freshman and charged with driving while intoxicated.

Morris suspended him once again for the first two games last season and declined to provide reasoning.

O’Grady was a bright spot for the Hogs during a struggling season as the leading receiver with 33 catches for 373 yards and three touchdowns. The stellar performance comes after his breakout junior year – catching 30 passes for 400 yards and six touchdowns, despite playing in just seven games.

The Fayetteville alum finished his career playing in 36 games with 87 receptions for 967 yards and as the career leader for most touchdowns by a tight end with 12.

The Hogs lost to Mississippi State 54-24 and are now 2-7 this season.

 
Should be a night game
That is their contract.

It was an easy decision before the year to put ND-UGA in prime time above this game.

This will have 2 of the top 4 in the CFP rankings, people will find it at 330 and watch. At least it isn't under the Fox umbrella and a 11am local start.
 
That is their contract.

It was an easy decision before the year to put ND-UGA in prime time above this game.

This will have 2 of the top 4 in the CFP rankings, people will find it at 330 and watch. At least it isn't under the Fox umbrella and a 11am local start.

Andy Staples had an article on the Athletic that did a pretty good job explaining it
 
Andy Staples had an article on the Athletic that did a pretty good job explaining it
Absolutely. It was excellent. And yes they could of made a deal with espn but this game will still get the viewership no matter when it's on.
 
I've thought a lot about the game this weekend, and I can't find any decided advantage for either team, other than LSU's kicking game is much better than Alabama's. I think both offenses will have success. I think for Alabama to win, 2 players in particular have to play well and impact the game: Najee Harris and Terrell Lewis. If Najee can have a good day running and getting the offense into good situations, LSU will be hard pressed to get many stops. If Lewis can impact Burrow, it will make the job of the defense a little easier. I don't know the LSU personnel well enough to use names, but I imagine the same is true on their end. Run the ball effectively enough and impact the Tua on dropbacks. Definitely feels like a game where a turnover can determine the outcome
 
Najee should have a field day.

The OL and RBs have played really well since Brown came back at RG and we moved Dickerson to C. Seems like this is the first year since '08 that the team has actually improved as the season went on. Probably due to all the freshmen playing early, but the timing is good nonetheless
 
I don't watch the sports shows any more. But just by accident, the ones(talking heads) I've seen have all been on LSU. Makes me nervous from a wagering perspective.
 
Is the LSU OL suspect at all? I didn't watch the Aub-LSU game close. LSU got to face UF with the best DLs getting injured.
 
LSU-Bama o63.5 -110 fairly large

Would love to know where your thoughts lie on the overall total vs the TT of the individual teams and why to play it that way versus those? I also love the total at this number but nearly just as confident in each of the individual TT's of each.
 
Would love to know where your thoughts lie on the overall total vs the TT of the individual teams and why to play it that way versus those? I also love the total at this number but nearly just as confident in each of the individual TT's of each.
Well, I will definitely look at individual TT's during the game for potential live bets.

I have one concern here, and it isn't the Tua factor. Bama should run very well here and may try to play a bit more of a ball control game to keep Tua 'good'. I dunno, I'll defer to the Bama people on this.

I had this projected low 70's before the injury. I have watched both offenses...and both defenses. It would be quite the upset to see more than 3-4 punts in this game(factoring in Tua playing obviously). I think he plays and is just fine, fwiw.

The number got hit down this morning, so I will gladly take the discount.
 
Well, I will definitely look at individual TT's during the game for potential live bets.

I have one concern here, and it isn't the Tua factor. Bama should run very well here and may try to play a bit more of a ball control game to keep Tua 'good'. I dunno, I'll defer to the Bama people on this.

I had this projected low 70's before the injury. I have watched both offenses...and both defenses. It would be quite the upset to see more than 3-4 punts in this game(factoring in Tua playing obviously). I think he plays and is just fine, fwiw.

The number got hit down this morning, so I will gladly take the discount.

Spot on...seeing this one similar for sure. I've been tempted to split my $ across the TT's and the full game but haven't settled on how to play it yet. I took at stab at O64 to start as well but I find it hard to see either of these teams holding the other under 30 so clearly I think both the TT's have value as well. A 41-38 final seems more likely here than 31-28 or 31-24.
 
Uneducated hunch from Austin is that he'll be near 90% for the game, if not more.


TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- Alabama coach Nick Saban told ESPN on Wednesday that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has made promising strides this week in practice and that "there's a good chance he will play" Saturday against No. 2-ranked LSU if he continues to make the progress he's made to this point.

"It's still day-to-day, and you don't know what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day, but he's moving around well and throwing the ball with confidence," Saban said. "His mobility will be the big question, but every day that's improved dramatically."

Saban told ESPN that Tagovailoa hasn't experienced the swelling or soreness that he did a year ago after injuring his left ankle. The other thing that helps, according to Saban, is that this most recent injury was not to the left-handed Tagovailoa's plant foot when he's throwing the football.

"He knows what to expect now, and you could tell with his rehab," Saban said. "Sometimes the first time a guy gets hurt, they're even afraid in rehab and are asking, 'Am I doing too much? Am I doing enough? It hurts, should I keep doing this?' But even in rehab, Tua was so much more aggressive because he knew the outcome. He already had it before, and his body also knew what to expect. It's a lot like if you never had a stint before in your heart, you'd be scared to death the first time they did it. But if you had to do it a second time, you'd probably be a lot more at ease."

 
I haven't seen it mentioned much, but it has to be a huge help for Tua's recovery to not be on the awards circuit like he was last year with the other ankle. They probably converted his apartment into a hyperbaric chamber. Only half-kidding
 
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