SEC Preseason

[gps_3]

Got my Phil Steele this week, started listening to college sports station on Sirius, starting to get excited. Wanted to have a thread to keep my (and everyone else's) thoughts on the SEC as we get closer to fall camp and week 1. Going to go through the schedules looking for good/bad spots for teams. These are typically, but not limited to, sandwich games, playing teams off a bye, revenge spots, and tough stretches of games. Will try to get some thoughts on each team down and will do my best to post a more comprehensive outlook for Alabama. I'd like as many people that want to contribute here, and would like to keep it on task for gambling purposes, and not a let's trash the SEC or other conference thread. Will be updating and editing as time allows. Can't believe we're in the downhill stretch for the best sport there is. Good luck everyone, looking forward to another season here at CTG.

My local doesn't post lines this early, so I won't have access to updated lines until closer to week 1, so feel free to post lines, win totals, etc.

 

[gsro]

Look forward to your SEC and Bama insight! have a heck of year bud!

 

[gps_3]

Steele's projected finish:

West: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, aTm, Miss St.

East: UGA, Tennessee/Mizzou, UF/SCAR, UK, Vandy

SEC SIDs:

AU vs UGA in SECCG

 

[gps_3]

Look forward to your SEC and Bama insight! have a heck of year bud!

:cheers3: Same to you gsro

 

[gsro]

You think Auburn takes a step back this year?

 

[gsro]

You think Auburn takes a step back this year?

I preface that with the fact that their running game isn't what they are, Coates isn't there to bail them out, I think they get better on D though after last year's learning curve for that line?

 

[gps_3]

Season win totals (from thread on CTG):

Alabama O/U 9.5 -145/+105

Ark O/U 8.5 +120/-160

Auburn O/U 8.5 +100/-140

UGA O/U 9 -135/-105

UK O/U 6 -120/-120

LSU O/U 8 -115/-125

OM O/U 8.5 -110/-130

Miss St O/U 7 -110/-110

SCAR O/U 7 -120/-120

aTm O/U 7.5 -135/-105

Vandy O/U 3 -135/-105

 

[gps_3]

Odds to win SEC (lines from local):

Alabama +180
Arkansas +900
Auburn +250
Florida +1250
UGA +450
UK +4500
LSU +900
MSU +750
Mizzou +1250
Ole Miss +600
SCAR +2800
UT +900
aTm +1500
Vandy +10500

 

[gps_3]

You think Auburn takes a step back this year?

I have been historically very poor at predicting AU, probably because of my inherent dislike for them. Also, they cost my about $4500 in a season long pool last season with their loss to Wisconsin on NYD. But I think they will be good, maybe even very good. I do not understand all the optimism shown by some national writers on them to win SEC and make playoff because they have lost 3 straight conference games, have 7 new starters on offense (including QB), and outside of a few DL, do not have elite SEC-level talent on defense. I expect their offense will be good to great since it seems that it is pretty friendly for inexperienced QBs and RBs. Johnson won't run as much as Marshall, but he should be a more refined passer. Don't really like their WR outside of Duke Williams, but sometimes all you really need is one badass. They really have nowhere to go but up on defense, but I'm not sure the Muschamp hire will yield the results they are expecting and predicting. From an x's and o's perspective, don't think WM is that much better, if at all, than Ellis Johnson. WM is a much better recruiter, but that won't matter much this season. If Lawson is near back to normal, they will have a pretty stout DL, but not impressed by the rest of the defense. Looking at the win total numbers, I think AU has the most variance. They are probably an 8-4 type team, and they have been the last few seasons. But they are certainly capable of double digit wins, and I could also see a losing record.

 

[RetroVK]

Can I get your opinion on UGA QB?

 

[gps_3]

Can I get your opinion on UGA QB?

Don't know much about him. Strong arm, highly recruited. Didn't see him much last year other than garbage time. Handing off to Chubb and Marshall seems like a good gig though. I'd expect him to play like a typical first year starting QB with talent: going to make some mistakes, especially having a great arm trying to do too much, but will make some wow plays too. UGA has typically been good to QBs.

 

[RetroVK]

One of their better "other 21 players" teams in a while imo.

 

[gps_3]

Alabama schedule analysis:

9/5 - Wisconsin(n)
9/12 - MTSU
9/19 - Ole Miss
9/26 - La Monroe
10/3 - @UGA
10/10 - Arkansas (HC)
10/17 - @ aTm
10/24 - Tennessee
10/31 - BYE
11/7 - LSU
11/14 - @ Miss St
11/21 - Charleston Southern
11/28 - @ Auburn

Opponents off BYE: ULM, aTm, Tennessee, LSU

I think this schedule sets up well for Alabama the first 6 games in that pass defense is the biggest question mark on the team (besides QB) while run defense will be stout. None of the first 6 teams figure to be tough pass offense matchups, except maybe UGA. Arkansas is squeezed in between trips to Athens and College Station, and it is homecoming to boot, so it wouldn't surprise me for that to be a really tough game. The trip to aTm looks dangerous coming off the UGA/Arkansas games that will no doubt be physical. They helped us out a little by making those ridiculously stupid t-shirts, but that game and the game against Tennessee will be tough in that Alabama plays two rested teams back to back at the end of a 8 straight game stretch. LSU is always dangerous, even though we've won the last 4. Going to Starkville afterward is usually a good time to fade the line for Alabama as there seems to always be a hangover effect, and I don't expect Miss St to be #1 like they were last year, which helped us not overlook them. Game at AU might be for the West, could depend on who is healthier in that one.

Not sure if it matters much, but the Ole Miss game will kick off at 8:15 PM local time. Hate games that don't end until midnight.

I think the ceiling for Alabama is 11 to 12 wins, with a floor of 9-3. Toughest games in order IMO: @ UGA, @ AU, @aTm, LSU, Wisconsin, Tenn, Ark, @ Miss St, Ole Miss,

Remember, the La Monroe game is a revenge game :rofl:

 

[Schrute]

hahahahahaha at the Monroe revenge angle

 

[gps_3]

hahahahahaha at the Monroe revenge angle

I typed it as a joke, and it is certainly ammo for those who dislike Alabama and Saban in particular, but I think that loss did way more good than most wins did for the program.

 

[gps_3]

Arkansas Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - UTEP
9/12 - Toledo (Little Rock)
9/19 - Texas Tech
9/26 - aTm (N)
10/3 - @ Tennessee
10/10 - @ Alabama
10/17 - BYE
10/24 - Auburn
10/31 - UT Martin (HC)
11/7 - @ Mississippi
11/14 - @ LSU
11/21 - Miss St
11/28 - Missouri

Opponents off a BYE: none

Of interest is the three game stretch, all away from home: aTm (Arlington, I assume Jerry World), @ UT, @ Alabama, leading up to a BYE. Get an extra week for Auburn's visit. Last 4 game stretch determines what kind of bowl, if any, they get to. Steele has Toledo as the top MAC team, could be a tougher game than it appears at first glance. I give the Hogs a ceiling of 8-4 and a floor of 5-7. Would lean to an under 8.5 wins this season

 

[gps_3]

Auburn Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - Louisville (N) Atlanta
9/12 - Jacksonville St
9/19 - @ LSU
9/26 - Miss St
10/3 - San Jose St (HC)
10/10 - BYE
10/15 - @ UK (Thursday)
10/24 - @ Ark
10/31 - Ole Miss
11/7 - @ aTm
11/14 - UGA
11/21 - Idaho
11/28 - Alabama

Opponents of BYE: UK, Arkansas

I think this may be the toughest schedule of the contenders in the SEC. They do get their two toughest games (UGA & Alabama) at home though. I think the Louisville game will be a tough one. Louisville has a pretty good defense, and AU will be breaking in a new QB, RB, and a relatively inexperienced OL. Most teams with a somewhat capable offense will put up points against AU, so it may turn into a shootout. I don't expect AU to lose necessarily, but I don't think it will be easy. Good use of the Thursday game and BYE there in the middle. Ark will be off a BYE, but AU will have an extra few days too, so that advantage may be mitigated. Toughest stretch is the @Ark, OM, @aTm, UGA, Idaho, Alabama to end the season. AU ran out of steam last year in a similar stretch, and their depth is such that they risk the same this season. I put them at a ceiling of 10-2, and a floor of 6-6

 

[gps_3]

Florida Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - New Mexico St
9/12 - ECU
9/19 - @ UK
9/26 - UT
10/3 - Ole Miss
10/10 - @ Missouri
10/17 - @ LSU
10/24 - BYE
10/31 - UGA (N) Jacksonville, FL
11/7 - Vandy (HC)
11/14 - @ SCAR
11/21 - FAU
11/28 - Florida St

Opponents off BYE: UGA

Rematch of bowl game in week 2 against ECU. Road trip to LSU looks to be a bad spot of UF: 7th straight game, week before BYE, second straight road trip. Vandy game is a trap spot between UGA and SCAR both away from home, but Vandy is going to be really bad so probably won't matter. Tough finding sure W's on the schedule. Ceiling of 8-4, floor of 5-7. I'm guessing a 6-6 or 7-5 season and a trip to a shitty bowl

 

[gps_3]

UGA Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - La Monroe
9/12 - @ Vandy
9/19 - SCAR
9/26 - Southern
10/3 - Alabama
10/10 - @UT
10/17 - Missouri (HC)
10/24 - BYE
10/31 - UF (N)
11/7 - UK
11/14 - @AU
11/21 - Georgia Southern
11/28 - Ga Tech

Opponents off a BYE: Florida

To be honest, I can see 12-0 here. I'm not predicting it, but every game UGA has a better than average shot to win. That road trip to Tennessee will be tricky the week after either a huge win or deflating loss against Alabama, and Tennessee will be in search of a program boosting win. Mizzou the week after is another potential let down the week before a BYE and being the 7th straight game. I'll never count out SCAR against UGA, but I don't see it this year. Tech always is a handful due to the offense. Ceiling of 11-1, floor of 8-4 and Richt on the hot seat

 

[captjohn67]

strongly disagree on Muschamp not yielding immediate and successful results, but as you mentioned, they have nowhere to go but up. My major concern is the 60 starts among the returning offensive line. Auburn's schedule is about as favorable as you can get, considering they reside in the west. Those that think they will play for a ring ( or even make the playoffs) are sniffing paint (imo) GL this year.

 

[gps_3]

strongly disagree on Muschamp not yielding immediate and successful results, but as you mentioned, they have nowhere to go but up. My major concern is the 60 starts among the returning offensive line. Auburn's schedule is about as favorable as you can get, considering they reside in the west. Those that think they will play for a ring ( or even make the playoffs) are sniffing paint (imo) GL this year.

It's fair to question my assessment of Auburn. As I mentioned, I'm not sure I can be unbiased. I expect their numbers on defense to be better than last year, but I'm not sure the defense will necessarily be better, if that makes any sense. Muschamp will improve them, but I've heard and read so many people who are making the assumption that they'll be a top 30 defense this year, and I don't see it. I've mentioned many times that in college, having a great x's and o's coach is great, but the teams with the best players generally do better. AU's defense has maybe 2 guys on it's roster that would start at Alabama, LSU, UGA, Ole Miss, etc. They have another 4 or 5 guys who won't start this season who have the possibility of being elite in the coming seasons. The talent is just not there IMO. WM had elite talent at UF, and gave up 30, 42, 9, 30, 42, 20, 10, and 23 in their 8 SEC games last season. I can't see it being any different at AU this year. Certainly not better. Luckily for him, the offense has the ability to outscore teams that UF couldn't.

 

[gps_3]

LSU Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - McNeese St
9/12 - @ Miss St
9/19 - AU
9/26 - @ Syracuse
10/3 - E. Michigan
10/10 - @ SCAR
10/17 - UF
10/24 - WKU (HC)
10/31 - BYE
11/7 - @ Alabama
11/14 - Arkansas
11/21 - @ Ole Miss
11/28 - aTm

Opponents off a BYE: Alabama, Ole Miss

This has to be the easiest schedule in the West, though they do end with a tough 4 game stretch to finish the season. The kind of schedule that gets you a top 10 ranking at the end of October, but finish the year outside the top 25. Possible let down against Syracuse after Miss St and AU. Getting Arky the week after Alabama is tough, as evidenced last year. I can see a 9-3 or even 10-2 for them this year, but could be as bad as 7-5.

 

[gps_3]

Ole Miss Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - UT Martin
9/12 - Fresno St
9/19 - @ Alabama
9/26 - Vandy
10/3 - @ UF
10/10 - New Mexico St
10/17 - @ Memphis
10/24 - aTm
10/31 - @ AU
11/7 - Arky
11/14 - BYE
11/21 - LSU
11/28 - @ Miss St

Opponents off a BYE: Memphis

The obvious thing here is that they play 10 straight weeks before a BYE. I like Arkansas there getting them in the 10th straight, after playing @ AU. Likely a pretty beat up and tired team against a team that's going to punch you in the mouth for 4 quarters. Outside the 10 games in a row, pretty manageable schedule. I'm thinking anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4. Tough to see 9 wins here.

 

[gps_3]

Miss St Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - @ S. Miss
9/12 - LSU
9/19 - Northwestern St
9/26 - @ AU
10/3 - @ aTm
10/10 - Troy
10/17 - La Tech (HC)
10/24 - UK
10/31 - BYE
11/5 - @ Missouri (Thurs)
11/14 - Alabama
11/21 - @ Ark
11/28 - Ole Miss

Opponents off a BYE: Mizzou

They get an extra couple of days to prepare for Alabama, who is travelling to Starkville after the LSU game. Good spot for MSU. Last 4 pretty tough stretch they could easily go 0-4. Think they do no worse than 5-7, no better than 7-5

 

[gps_3]

Missouri Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - SE Missouri St
9/12 - @ Arkansas St
9/19 - UCONN
9/26 - @ UK
10/3 - SCAR
10/10 - UF (HC)
10/17 - @ UGA
10/24 - @ Vandy
10/31 - BYE
11/5 - Miss St (Thurs)
11/14 - BYU (N) Kansas City
11/21 - Tennessee
11/28 - @ Arkansas

Opponents off a BYE: Miss St

Seems like a pretty manageable schedule here. Could be 6-0 going to UGA. Play 8 straight to start, end with a road trip to Nashville. Again, great spot for Vandy, but hard to back them. I could see 9 or 10 wins here, no fewer than 7.

 

[gps_3]

Kentucky Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - UL Lafayette
9/12 - @ SCAR
9/19 - UF
9/26 - Missouri
10/3 - E. Kentucky
10/10 - BYE
10/15 - AU (Thurs)
10/24 - @ Miss St
10/31 - Tenn
11/7 - @ UGA
11/14 - @ Vandy
11/21 - Charlotte
11/28 - Louisville

Opponents off a bye: AU

Odd that Vegas threw a win total of 6 here. I count 4 near certain wins. Not sure I'd have them favored in any of the other 8 games. Get AU, @MSU, UT, @UGA in a 4 week stretch. Have to assume they'll be out of gas by UGA, then beat up on Vandy and Charlotte the two weeks after. To be honest I don't see anything better than 6-6 here. Florida will be the key game for the Cats

 

[gps_3]

South Carolina Schedule Analysis:

9/3 - UNC (N) Charlotte
9/12 - UK
9/19 - @ UGA
9/26 - UCF
10/3 - @ Missouri
10/10 - LSU
10/17 - Vandy (HC)
10/24 - BYE
10/31 - @ aTm
11/7 - @ UT
11/14 - Florida
11/21 - The Citadel
11/28 - Clemson

Opponents off a bye: Vandy

The Florida game jumps out at me. Get them after road trips to aTm and UT. Tough 3 game stretch. UCF sandwiched between trips to Athens and Mizzou. Will need to at least split UGA and Clemson for 8 wins IMO. 7-5 or 6-6 most likely here

 

[gps_3]

Tennessee Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - Bowling Green (N) Nashville
9/12 - Oklahoma
9/19 - W. Carolina
9/26 - @ UF
10/3 - Arkansas
10/10 - UGA
10/17 - BYE
10/24 - @ Alabama
10/31 - @ UK
11/7 - SCAR
11/14 - North Texas (HC)
11/21 - @ Missouri
11/28 - Vandy

Opponents off BYE: none

Bowling Green is not a pushover and Oklahoma is obviously a tough opponent. Tough start to SEC schedule, but BYE before Alabama helps. After that schedule is pretty light and could easily see them winning last 5. Think 9 wins is the most optimistic win total, but can't see them with less than 7 wins. Could see a let down @ UK the week after Alabama.

 

[TheGarfather]

BG better be a pushover to a team like Tennessee. If they're not, its going to be a long year.

 

[Carolina Guy]

No cake walk sched for the Bams. I like the price for an u9' win total at plus odds

 

[gps_3]

No cake walk sched for the Bams. I like the price for an u9' win total at plus odds

I think it's fair to say that one would pick Alabama to win most or all of their games if in a vacuum, but the cumulative effect could certainly bring 3 losses

 

[gps_3]

Texas A & M Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - Arizona St (N) Houston
9/12 - Ball St
9/19 - Nevada
9/26 - Arkansas (N) Arlington
10/3 - Mississippi St
10/10 - BYE
10/17 - Alabama
10/24 - @ Ole Miss
10/31 - S. Carolina
11/7 - Auburn
11/14 - Western Carolina
11/21 - @ Vandy
11/28 - @ LSU

Opponents off a BYE: Ole Miss

No true road game until October 24th. Wow. 1 game outside of Texas before November 21st. One of 3 road trips is to Vandy. I'd say this is a very favorable schedule. Not sure what to make of the Arizona St game. Possible lookahead with Miss St before Alabama? But bye week in between. Maybe a lookahead to Auburn when SCAR comes to town? Same for trip to Vandy? I dunno. Even with the favorable schedule, I still see this as no better than a 9-3 team, but no worse than 7-5.

 

[gps_3]

Vanderbilt Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - WKU
9/12 - UGA
9/19 - Austin Peay
9/26 - @ Ole Miss
10/3 - @ MTSU
10/10 - BYE
10/17 - @ SCAR
10/24 - Missouri (HC)
10/31 - @ Houston
11/7 - @ UF
11/14 - UK
11/21 - aTm
11/28 - @ UT

Opponents off a BYE: none

Not much to say here. I'd be surprised if Vandy won a conference game. Best chance is UK on 11/14 I guess. I see anywhere from 1-11 to 3-9

 

[gps_3]

Done going through the schedules. Everything I wrote was pretty much my first thoughts as I went through most of those schedules for the first time. Will update thoughts as I look further and welcome any and all constructive conversation

 

[CollegeKingRex]

:shake: good shit brother. Gettin to be that time of year again!

 

[Grovehard]

Ole Miss Schedule Analysis:

9/5 - UT Martin
9/12 - Fresno St
9/19 - @ Alabama
9/26 - Vandy
10/3 - @ UF
10/10 - New Mexico St
10/17 - @ Memphis
10/24 - aTm
10/31 - @ AU
11/7 - Arky
11/14 - BYE
11/21 - LSU
11/28 - @ Miss St

Opponents off a BYE: Memphis

The obvious thing here is that they play 10 straight weeks before a BYE. I like Arkansas there getting them in the 10th straight, after playing @ AU. Likely a pretty beat up and tired team against a team that's going to punch you in the mouth for 4 quarters. Outside the 10 games in a row, pretty manageable schedule. I'm thinking anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4. Tough to see 9 wins here.

I expect the D to be as good or better than last year's. Lost some experience in the secondary but replaced it with better talent. LBs are in the bottom third of the conference, but they were last year too. DL will be nasty again. The WRs are great, but I have no idea if the QB will be able to get them the ball. I don't expect much out of the running game, but the OL can't be worse than it was last year. Best case scenario 10-2. Worst case scenario 6-6.

 

[gps_3]

I expect the D to be as good or better than last year's. Lost some experience in the secondary but replaced it with better talent. LBs are in the bottom third of the conference, but they were last year too. DL will be nasty again. The WRs are great, but I have no idea if the QB will be able to get them the ball. I don't expect much out of the running game, but the OL can't be worse than it was last year. Best case scenario 10-2. Worst case scenario 6-6.

Any word on Tunsil?

 

[Grovehard]

Any word on Tunsil?

I don't get the impression that anybody in the Ole Miss camp is concerned. There was a hearing on Friday and stepdad didn't hold up well. I'm guessing one game suspension at most - UT Martin's DE is licking his chops.

 

[gps_3]

SEC Media Days is this week. Will try to post anything interesting. Please feel free to post in this thread if you catch anything.

If anyone cares, here is the schedule:

[h=2]2014 SEC FOOTBALL MEDIA DAYS SCHEDULE[/h]MONDAY, JULY 13
11:30am - 2:20pm
• COMMISSIONER GREG SANKEY
• AUBURN (Coach Gus Malzahn/Jeremy Johnson/Jonathan Jones/Kris Frost)
2:30pm - 5:30pm
• FLORIDA (Coach Jim McElwain/Jonathan Bullard/Brandon Powell/Vernon Hargreaves III)
• VANDERBILT (Coach Derek Mason/Ralph Webb/Nigel Bowden/Spencer Pulley)
TUESDAY, JULY 14
9am - 12:20pm
• SOUTH CAROLINA (Coach Steve Spurrier/Elliott Fry/Pharoh Cooper/Skai Moore)
• TEXAS A&M (Coach Kevin Sumlin/Mike Matthews/Germain Ifedi/Julien Obioha)
12:45pm - 1pm - SEC Network Announcement (Main Media Room)
1pm - 4 pm
• MISSISSIPPI STATE (Coach Dan Mullen/Dak Prescott/ Taveze Calhoun/Ryan Brown)
• TENNESSEE (Coach Butch Jones/Joshua Dobbs/Curt Maggitt/Cameron Sutton)
WEDNESDAY, JULY 15
9am - 12:00pm
• ALABAMA (Coach Nick Saban/Reggie Ragland/Kenyan Drake/Ryan Kelly)
• KENTUCKY (Coach Mark Stoops/Melvin Lewis/Jordan Swindle/A.J. Stamps)
1pm - 4 pm
• MISSOURI (Coach Gary Pinkel/Kenya Dennis/Maty Mauk/Evan Boehm)
• ARKANSAS (Coach Bret Bielema/Jonathan Williams/Brandon Allen/Keon Hatcher)
THURSDAY, JULY 16
9am - 1:30pm
• GEORGIA (Coach Mark Richt/Malcolm Mitchell/John Theus/Jordan Jenkins)
• OLE MISS (Coach Hugh Freeze/Evan Engram/Mike Hilton/C.J. Johnson)
• LSU (Coach Les Miles/Leonard Fournette/Vadal Alexander/Kendell Beckwith)

 

[gps_3]

Well this will help us break the stereotype that we're all a bunch of dumb, illiterate hicks down in the South: Media picks Alabama to win the West, but Auburn to win the SEC. :rofl:

 

[Schrute]

Well this will help us break the stereotype that we're all a bunch of dumb, illiterate hicks down in the South: Media picks Alabama to win the West, but Auburn to win the SEC. :rofl:

This has made twitter an absolute blast today

 

[gps_3]

This has made twitter an absolute blast today

It's not as bad as it sounds, as the media pick a winner, and they also pick each division 1-7. Auburn had a wider range of where they were picked to finish in the West, so Alabama ended up with the most cumulative points, but not as many 1st place votes. But still hilarious

 

[Carolina Guy]

Anybody hear Spurrier's comments on his team finishing 7-6 last season compared to Tenny and Ark? Always the ass!

 

[gps_3]

Ok, here is my first attempt at making a PR of the SEC, so go easy on me fellas. The numbers represent just the SEC. A lot if things went into my ranking. I started with Sagarin ratings from last season as a starting point and adjusted based on returning/lost starters, returning/lost lettermen, and recruiting. I did cross-reference against some of the conference GOY lines just to make sure I wasn't coming up with something crazy because at this point, I think Vegas is just a tad bit better than me. The second number is the home field advantage boost. These are somewhat arbitrary based on my perception of each school, with no numerical data behind it.

Alabama 100 3.5
UGA 97.5 3.5
AU 92 4.0
Ole Miss 91 3.5
LSU 90 5.0
UT 89.5 3.5
aTm 89 4.5
Ark 88 3.0 (games played in Little Rock get slightly less)
Miss St 87 3.0
Mizzou 85.5 3.0
SCAR 84 3.0
UF 84 3.5
UK 80 2.0
VU 67.5 0.5

I feel pretty good where I have the top 9 teams rated, and Vanderbilt, but think I may be underrating Mizzou, SC, UF, and UK. Would I really make Alabama a 20 point favorite at home against UF or SC? Guess this is why it's a work in progress. Hack away boys.

 

[gps_3]

While I was putting together my PR for the conference, I looked at the recruiting rankings as an indicator of overall talent levels. I know there is much argument over what, if anything, these rankings mean, but I think it's a pretty accurate measure of the overall talent/potential of the 85 scholarship players. Obviously only the top 40 or so players on a team make a true impact, but I think looking at recruiting can give an idea of what teams can withstand injuries/suspension better. I guess an indicator of overall depth. Using the 24/7 team rankings here's the list of "most talented" SEC teams and their national ranking. Since there is certainly some bias toward the conference as a whole, I really only use the ranking relative to other conference teams rather than nationally. I went back 4 years because that encompasses the vast majority of eligible players this year. Not a whole lot of 5th year seniors these days. The rankings are signing day rankings and do not account for attrition. Not perfect, but good enough IMO. Listing the team and average ranking over 4 years.

Alabama 1
LSU 6.75
UGA 8.5
AU 9.25
UF 9.25
aTm 10.25
UT 13.75
SC 18.75
Ole Miss 21.5
Miss St 25.0
Ark 25.75
Missouri 34.50
UK 35.75
Vandy 41.25

Not a lot of surprises there. UF seems to be the biggest underperformer, and their ranking would be much higher if not for the collapse of their class after Muschamp was fired. Could be a quick bounce back if McElwain is up to the task. The Mississippi schools have overachieved, but I think it can be explained a couple of ways. One, players from Mississippi don't get as much national exposure as in other states, and there is intense pressure on those kids to stay in state so oftentimes they commit early on don't go to as many camps. It seems there are also a good number of grade risks from that state (not trying to stereotype) so their rankings suffer due to perceived difficulty in actually being able to enroll. Second, Ole Miss has some very top end talent, but not a whole class of them. They have had a number of guys in the last few years who could start at any program, but the backend of some of those classes brought the overall ranking down. Stability at QB has helped both schools as well.

I'm a big believer that Jimmy's and Joe's beat X's and O's over the long haul, so LSU is running out of excuses. Also, it's time for Tennessee to make the jump to contender. UGA has long been out of excuses, but I think they are the overwhelming favorite in the East.

 

[twinkie13]

On your jimmy and joe comment I agree....LSU is the big ? This year for me...could go 8-5 or win the natty....

 

[gps_3]

Something that came up during my research was the difference in perception and prediction for Auburn vs Texas A&M. The more I look at it, the more similar I think they are, yet AU is widely predicted to be a national title contender and aTm is picked 5th or worse in the West.

Both teams ended last season in similar terrible fashion: AU lost 4 of last 6 against SEC, and last 4 games against FBS competition. aTm lost 5 of last 6 conference games, but won at AU. aTm did win their bowl game against WVU

Both teams are offense oriented and at the top of the conference in yards and points

Both hired big name DC's this offseason to fix horrendous defenses. While Muschamp is a bigger name, I think Chavis is the better coordinator.

They have recruited at similar levels over the last 4 years.

AU's QB has potential, but has minimal game experience. Kyle Allen was the top rated QB out of high school and started the last 5 games last year. I like aTm's WR better, RBs are probably favored at AU due to workload. Both OL lost 90+ starts from last season

Neither defense has elite talent at all 3 levels, but both have some elite pieces here and there.

SOS: Steele has AU at 6th nationally and aTm at 13th. Aggies don't leave state of Texas until October 24th. Only 3 true road games, and one is Vandy. Get AU and Alabama at home. AU gets UGA and Alabama at home, but has to travel to Ark, LSU, and aTm. On paper, aTm has the tougher non-conf game in Arizona St, but don't think Louisville is a pushover for AU.

I'm not saying that aTm will be better than AU, or vice versa, but I think it's fair to say that the difference between the two isn't as great as people would have you believe. I think Gus is a better coach than Sumlin, but I don't think it's a huge difference. aTm has the edge in returning experience as well. I'm probably wrong, but it was something that stuck out to me.

 

[gps_3]

On your jimmy and joe comment I agree....LSU is the big ? This year for me...could go 8-5 or win the natty....

LSU has experience and talent, no doubt. Those last 4 games are the season.

 

[cubsker]

I like the Ags quite a bit too, but I also like Auburn a lot. I haven't put numbers on em and I'll review again, but my first go through ranked em in this order:

Bama
Aub
LSU
Jorja
Ole Miss
Arky
A&M
Tenn
Misery
Piss St
Cocks
Fla
UK
Vandy

 

[RetroVK]

Everyone lower on Ole Miss than me ... I am either gonna get rich or stay broke.