SEC Pre-season Thread

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I couldn't jump straight to week 0/1 like BAR did for the B1G thread (make sure you check that thread every week because it is probably the best weekly thread in this forum), because I'm not ready yet. So we'll use this thread to chat about RSW, thoughts on some of these teams heading into fall camp, etc. I'll start a new one for week 0/1, though be forewarned, the SEC slate is pretty pathetic to start the season. Almost like the SEC/SoCon challenge week the week before the end of season rivalry games. Full disclaimer for anyone new here, I am an Alabama homer. I will try my best to be as impartial as possible, but I fail a lot. Especially during the in-game threads once primetime rolls around and I'm on my 4th vodka drink of the day. I do think I have a pretty firm pulse on the team that resides in Tuscaloosa, and I hear some things about several other programs in the conference. I will do my best to contribute toward us all taking it to the books. I also use a local, so I won't be much help with openers

Here are what I currently see for RSW with my local for SEC teams. Feel free to comment, argue, call me an idiot, just please be respectful.

Alabama 10.5 +150/-190
Arkansas 7 +130/-160
Auburn 6.5 -150/+120
Florida 5.5 -130/EV
UGA 11.5 +120/-150
Kentucky 6.5 -160/+130
LSU 9.5 -115/-115
Miss St 6.5 +110/-140
Mizzou 6.5 +110/-140
Ole Miss 7.5 -105/-125
South Carolina 6.5 EV/-130
Tennessee 9 -120/-110
aTm 7.5 -175/+145
Vandy 3.5 -165/+135

I don't have any huge qualms with any of those numbers. I think the only side I have a strong-ish feeling about is Kentucky over, but that's why it's juiced the way it is. I did take Alabama over 10.5 (of course), mainly because we haven't been + juice on the over in forever, plus I think 11-1 or 12-0 are pretty reasonable records this season. I don't discount the chance of 10-2 or worse, but I'll pay to see it.

It's kind of a low-key exciting or unpredictable season in the SEC. Like everyone, I still expect it to come down to UGA and Alabama/LSU, but when you look deeper, there are a lot of questions to be answered by all of the teams expected to be in the top 3rd of the league. I mean, as of today, Spencer Rattler is one of the two most accomplished QBs in the league.

I'll give some brief thoughts on each team in the conference and look forward to reading what the rest of this community has to say. I may post a long-form on Alabama, but I worry that I start trending into fan-site info instead of wagering site info.

SEC EAST:

UGA - Clear favorite, schedule is as favorable as it can be. I think there are a lot of questions that need to be answered, but they get the benefit of the doubt to start the season. Will be shocked if they don't win the East and make the CFP regardless of what happens in ATL

Tennessee - How do they follow up last season? Full confidence the offense will be great, but can they do it against an elite defense? Can they make the stops they need to against other elite teams? If they are rolling through November and Neyland is anything close to what it was last year on the 3rd Saturday in October, I think they can knock off UGA. Probably not enough to win the East, but you never know

Kentucky - If Leary plays to potential, they can make some noise, but I fail to see any path to contending for the East. Coen coming back could be huge.

S. Carolina - Lot of momentum heading into the season, if Rattler plays well they can play with most teams on the schedule. Road schedule is pretty brutal, and Clemson will always be tough

Mizzou - I'll admit, I know nothing about this program and still don't feel like they are a real SEC team. Nothing against them, but they are just a blind spot for me

Florida - This roster is pretty poor, especially for Florida standards. I think Napier is a good coach, but he has his work cut out for him. I'd lean under on RSW

Vandy - I think I like the O on RSW. Lea knows the program, both it's limitations and potential.

SEC WEST:

Alabama - This will be a telling year on the status of the Saban run. I think the roster is better set up for 2024 season, but there's no such thing as a rebuilding year for Saban. The talent is there, I think/hope that the new coaches/philosophy shift will yield a better on-field result

LSU - I am on record here as to the ability of Brian Kelly as a head coach. I don't think the roster is there yet from a depth perspective, but they will be a really good team this year. If they stay pretty healthy, I'd buy that they can win the West. I'm not sure I buy that they are a CFP candidate this year, but I'm pretty sure they will be moving forward with their current trajectory.

Texas A&M - Not exactly sure how to view the Aggies this year. On the one hand, their talent takes a back seat to very few teams in the country. On the other, that's been true for a few years and they've largely disappointed. I can honestly say that them going 11-1 or 5-7 will not surprise me

Ole Miss - I question how successful a program can be that relies so heavily on the portal in this league. Lane is a genius as a play caller and game plan developer. His in-game decision making can be questionable, particularly on 4th down.

Arkansas - I like KJ Jefferson at QB and I like Sam Pittman, just not sure they have the talent level to compete with that brutal schedule

Miss St - Not sure how to cap this team, but I have to believe there will be growing pains with a roster recruited for Air Raid and going to a new system. Rogers is obviously very experienced, so it should help the transition

Auburn - Freeze is a massive upgrade at HC. But Harsin decimated that roster, probably will take some time to rebuild, even with the portal. Though it wouldn't shock me if they knock off either Alabama or UGA at home this season
 
You can pencil Georgia into Atlanta and pretty much the playoff. That schedule is ridiculously easy sans the trip to Neyland. They are damn good as is, but this feels like Clemson for a few years where there was literally no chance they'd miss conf ship game and playoffs.

To your point, this feels like such a weird SEC season coming up...

Love seeing the thread started. Juices officially flowing!
 
Good write up! Can’t wait either. Does anybody have any feeling who starts at quarterback for Ole Miss? Not sure why Spencer Sanders transferred there unless he was sure he could win the job? Dart is the incumbent but I think Walker Howard has the highest ceiling of all three.
 
twinkie13 said:
I know you said the SEC slate sucks week 0/1 but LSU/FLA St going to be a banger
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Yeah I should have excluded LSU/FSU and SCAR/UNC. I guess Florida/Utah could be interesting. Tenny/UVA probably looked pretty even 3 years ago. Week 2 looks a bit better with Alabama/Texas, aTm/Miami, Ole Miss/Tulane, AU/Cal and even Vandy/Wake.
 
B.A.R. said:
You can pencil Georgia into Atlanta and pretty much the playoff. That schedule is ridiculously easy sans the trip to Neyland. They are damn good as is, but this feels like Clemson for a few years where there was literally no chance they'd miss conf ship game and playoffs.

To your point, this feels like such a weird SEC season coming up...

Love seeing the thread started. Juices officially flowing!
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Yeah I just don't see much that can trip them up before they get to Atlanta. I guess if Tenn beats them convincingly and wins the East, then Tenn loses to the West champ, I could see SOS coming into the discussion, but being 2 time defending champ will probably carry them even in that scenario
 
Charles0619 said:
Good write up! Can’t wait either. Does anybody have any feeling who starts at quarterback for Ole Miss? Not sure why Spencer Sanders transferred there unless he was sure he could win the job? Dart is the incumbent but I think Walker Howard has the highest ceiling of all three.
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I feel like it's Dart's job to lose, but Lane has no problem shaking up the QB room. I still get chapped that he started Cooper Bateman against Ole Miss in 2015, benching starter Jake Coker in what ended up as our only loss that year
 
gps_3 said:
Yeah I should have excluded LSU/FSU and SCAR/UNC. I guess Florida/Utah could be interesting. Tenny/UVA probably looked pretty even 3 years ago. Week 2 looks a bit better with Alabama/Texas, aTm/Miami, Ole Miss/Tulane, AU/Cal and even Vandy/Wake.
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Some heavy hitters there. Ole Miss coming to Yuleman off the biggest season pretty much in Tulane history or at least 2nd is sneaky one in there.
 
Yeah as an Ole Miss fan, I am a bit nervous about that one. Tulane is the favorite to win the AAC. Pretty tough non conference game on road.
 
Charles0619 said:
Good write up! Can’t wait either. Does anybody have any feeling who starts at quarterback for Ole Miss? Not sure why Spencer Sanders transferred there unless he was sure he could win the job? Dart is the incumbent but I think Walker Howard has the highest ceiling of all three.
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would be weird if sanders isn't the guy. if not, he prob hops back in the portal.
 
I am baffled as to why Sanders didn’t end up somewhere else. That being said, I think he is well suited to run Lane’s offense especially if he can limit turnovers. I agree he will hit the portal again if it is apparent he is not the starter.

Things went badly sideways at some point with Gundy and Okie St. Not sure what happened but he allegedly had 400k plus in NIL deals there that he walked away from. I can’t imagine a 2nd tier SEC school like Ole Miss with a fairly small endowment could offer more than that? There is definitely more to the story on why he left?
 
Have a saying that you don't get rich betting against Brady, LeBron, etc. Saban there too and have made nice money with him over the years. This year they have to replace 3 T12 picks including Young obviously. And doesn't sound like the QBs were great in Spring hence bringing in the Norte Dame kid.

So im doing a slight fade. Played LSU +7 (down to 5.5) and Texas +6.5 (cant buy to 7 yet and i think its going down since -115 now). Just 1u. Both at bama but i think they both will have the better QB on field.

Think i read you saying this will be a key year to judge if bama fading some. Agree. Gl
 
Charles0619 said:
Good write up! Can’t wait either. Does anybody have any feeling who starts at quarterback for Ole Miss? Not sure why Spencer Sanders transferred there unless he was sure he could win the job? Dart is the incumbent but I think Walker Howard has the highest ceiling of all three.
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How’s he looked? He looked like he would be having a seat for a while at LSU and at Ole Miss some pretty good guys in front of him too.
 
Howard looked very good in the spring game and I think he definitely throws the best deep ball of the 3. He still has 4 years of eligibility remaining so unless he is amazing in August practices, I think he sits for a year. I do think that his arm and mechanics translate best to an NFL future of the 3 guys.
 
Charles0619 said:
Yeah I have season tickets and drive down to most of the home conference games in Oxford. It is a fun environment for sure. Hoping with the playoff expansion to 12 next year we can start making the field at least occasionally.
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Where do you drive from? I’m going to try to make it to a few home games this year myself.
 
lvmike32 said:
Have a saying that you don't get rich betting against Brady, LeBron, etc. Saban there too and have made nice money with him over the years. This year they have to replace 3 T12 picks including Young obviously. And doesn't sound like the QBs were great in Spring hence bringing in the Norte Dame kid.

So im doing a slight fade. Played LSU +7 (down to 5.5) and Texas +6.5 (cant buy to 7 yet and i think its going down since -115 now). Just 1u. Both at bama but i think they both will have the better QB on field.

Think i read you saying this will be a key year to judge if bama fading some. Agree. Gl
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My thoughts on the Alabama situation are that the last 2 season's "failures" were largely a product of coaching/philosophy. Though if we don't lose our top 2 WRs and both starting CBs in 2021, we likely win the national championship that year, so it can't have been that bad. Regardless, I think on offense, the pendulum swung too far to the spread-type offense, and we lost any semblance of an offensive identity by the time Bryce took over. The OL became a little soft and a little small, and that carried over to the defense since that's what they practiced against every day. The OC/DC hires appear to indicate that Saban recognized this as well, especially watching UGA last year field an offense that was tough enough to grind out yards and steal the will of the defense, but also was plenty explosive. Bill O'Brien basically let Bryce be the offense, and it's not necessarily a bad thing given how good he is, but we saw what happened when he was hurt, and the one or two times he had a bad day. On defense, the Pete Golding experiment was proven to just not work. He may do good things over in Oxford, but nobody was sad to see him leave Tuscaloosa. The defensive game plan and adjustments (or lack of) against LSU should have been enough to fire him, but that's not Saban's style. Steele may be uninspiring, but I think he signals a return to some of the things that made Alabama what they are/were.

The QB situation is obviously what most people are talking about, and it is the most important position on the field, but I don't think it's as dire as most of our fans seem to think it is. It is true that the QBs on campus for spring did not perform as well as the coaches were hoping, thus the Buchner transfer. I think the competition will result in having a very capable player at that position, based on having beat out 4 highly talented and recruited players. And at this point, I don't discount any of the QBs winning the job, even the freshmen. Remember, Jalen Hurts ultimately beat out several highly rated and more experienced QBs by halftime of his first game in college against USC. However, I still expect Ty Simpson to be the guy

If QB works out, the rest of the roster is pretty strong. A little thin on OL past the first 6 guys, and not much star power at the DL spot as of yet, but overall will rate very highly on the talent composite. The OL has some legit star power on the right side with JC Latham and Tyler Booker, and true freshman Kadyn Proctor looks like he will be one in short order. Center is solid, just need to solidify the left side of the line. Again, some good candidates and competition, so I expect an OL that is improved from the last 2 seasons. Can probably withstand one injury on the line, past that could be an issue. Need a WR to step up as a true #1, and there are some good candidates there, we just need to see it. After a couple of seasons without a typical Saban RB, I like the look of the RB group this year. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are likely too good too keep off the field, so I expect them to take snaps from Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams pretty early in the season. TE has a lot of bodies that collectively make the position stronger as a unit, though I'm not sure there's a guy who's going to be all-conference caliber this year.

On defense, already mentioned that the DL doesn't have that certified badass that was a hallmark of past Saban defenses, though I think that freshman James Smith will eventually be that guy, just maybe not this season. A lot of really "good" players, so it's a deep unit that will be more solid than spectacular, unless someone like a Jaheim Oatis can build on his really solid season last year. At OLB, I know we lose Will Anderson, and you can't replace that, but we've recruited very well at that position the last few years. I know most people disagree, but I'm not sold on Dallas Turner being "that" guy. He will be good. no doubt, but he seemed to disappear in some games last year, even with Anderson drawing so much attention. He also made some mental errors that cost us points, and could have cost us some games. Most folks I follow are sky high on true freshman Keon Keeley, but he didn't enroll until summer, so he was one of the few incoming recruits that missed the spring. I don't have high expectations of him this season, but I don't discount it either. Most previews will tell you we lost both starters at ILB, and while technically true, Deontae Lawson played a ton last year, and would have been the starter if not for some injuries. Trez Marshall, the UGA transfer, also saw injury take away his playing time. So there's experience there, and the JUCO guy Jefferson has reportedly been really good, even if he is a little undersized. Also a couple of younger guys who may end up being too good off the field, especially Jihaad Campbell. The defensive backfield should be the strength of the defense. Kool-Aid McKinstry is likely the top CB in college, and Terrion Arnold on the other side is really solid. Safety was the main concern going into spring, but Caleb Downs was very impressive and will likely be a starter by game 1. Malachi Moore has played a ton of football, so he at minimum will be a steadying influence. He is at his best in nickel or dime when he moves closer to the line of scrimmage, so we'll see how the lineup changes. Earl Little Jr is a name to look out for

Special teams should be pretty solid. Will Reichard is already the leading scorer in Alabama history. Kool-Aid led the nation in yards per punt return last year. The punter, who didn't start playing football until very late, has improved each of the last two years, so I expect him to be in the middle to upper half of SEC punters this year. Not sure who will return kicks yet, but there's no shortage of candidates there.

As far as the season outlook, I think we will be a better team this year than last, despite losing Bryce Young and Will Anderson. We won't be able to replace their production per se, but I think the overall team will be stronger. If that results in a better on field result remains to be seen. The lack of mental toughness, particularly on the road, last year was very concerning, and I'm not 100% that's the kind of thing that can just be fixed in short order. I do think getting back to a more physical style on both offense and defense should hopefully help. They will need that mental toughness, because at least half of our schedule feels they can beat us. It's a fairly favorable schedule given the teams we play, but it will still be tough. My expectation is to win the West and compete for a CFP spot. The talent is there, not many excuses heading into fall camp. From a gambling perspective, I haven't necessarily found an angle just yet. May need to see a few games before I do, if at all. Unfortunately I think the days of blindly taking Alabama 1H, 1H TT over, and 1H over, are gone. They were fun while they lasted, but I think we will be going back more to what we see UGA do, and what Alabama did pre-2018, and that's just hammer away at a team until all of the sudden it's 45-6 by the start of the 4th quarter.

I would be more likely to bet Texas at the current number than LSU, given that it's early in the season and there will still be several position battles to sort out. I think we saw last year how much attention Sark gave this game all off-season, and I think it will be the same. LSU doesn't have that luxury, and by November, both teams could be completely different than what we thought pre-season. I trust our depth more than LSU's and think unless there's a catastrophic injury, we're unlikely to see LSU under the current number and far more likely that they're catching more than a TD by November. But I'm not much of a futures guy so I could be way off

Sorry for the long post, hope it's not too much sunshine pumping, but I do think we will be better than a lot are predicting. We are the second lowest odds to win the title for a reason, despite the toughest schedule of any of the favorites
 
great write up. As a casual fan I do think Bama has slipped a little the last few years but not a whole lot. Think Georgia has just risen up to their level now. Yeah, lot of hype on LSU and Texas this season while many down on Bama. Actually that's what gave me the most pause. But I think a TD probably a little too much in each game. We shall see. LSU went down to 4 and now back up to 5.5. I think Texas will come down to 6 or lower but I'm lousy at futures too. BOL doesn't allow buying the 1/2 yet so couldn't get 7. Like I said, rarely bet against Saban. But just think a TD a little too much i.e. books still shading lines to Bama. GL
 
lvmike32 said:
great write up. As a casual fan I do think Bama has slipped a little the last few years but not a whole lot. Think Georgia has just risen up to their level now. Yeah, lot of hype on LSU and Texas this season while many down on Bama. Actually that's what gave me the most pause. But I think a TD probably a little too much in each game. We shall see. LSU went down to 4 and now back up to 5.5. I think Texas will come down to 6 or lower but I'm lousy at futures too. BOL doesn't allow buying the 1/2 yet so couldn't get 7. Like I said, rarely bet against Saban. But just think a TD a little too much i.e. books still shading lines to Bama. GL
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It's true that Alabama has slipped some, but I think that's relative to prior Alabama teams. Against the current teams in 2023, I think we still match up pretty favorably with anyone. I make my own PR #s for the SEC only, and I have Alabama -7.5 against LSU currently. I may do some tweaking during fall camps due to injuries or something, but I figure that's where I will enter week 1. So I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment. I was just saying that if you like LSU, I think you can wait because it's far more likely IMO that Alabama is a bigger favorite than a smaller one than the current #, unless there is a significant injury(s) for Alabama.
 
What worries me most about bama is when you go to such a qb centric offense because the qb is that good and then that qb leaves, what happens the next year. I think about 2001, where nebraska just left the ball in Eric Crouch's hands the entire year and they rode that to a title game appearance. The next year, they went 7-7, which was basically a decade's worth of losses. Now there's no way the falloff is that hard for bama and it probably helps that BoB is gone, but their offense is a huge concern at this point.
 
cubsker said:
What worries me most about bama is when you go to such a qb centric offense because the qb is that good and then that qb leaves, what happens the next year. I think about 2001, where nebraska just left the ball in Eric Crouch's hands the entire year and they rode that to a title game appearance. The next year, they went 7-7, which was basically a decade's worth of losses. Now there's no way the falloff is that hard for bama and it probably helps that BoB is gone, but their offense is a huge concern at this point.
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That's a valid concern. I don't know enough about that Nebraska team to compare, but I'll take your word for it. Did Nebraska try to run the same offense with a QB that wasn't suited for it? Rees clearly won't be asking the QB to have the same responsibilities that O'Brien gave Bryce. A solid running game will be the new QBs best friend for sure, and I expect us to lean on that more than we have in the last couple of seasons. I imagine the QB that wins the job will be the guy that protects the ball the best and makes the best decisions. Ironically, I bet Milroe would have been a Heisman candidate in those vintage Nebraska offenses. From what I've seen of him, the ability is there, but he hasn't put it together yet. I kind of feel the same way about Buchner, though I haven't seen a bunch of him, just highlights (and lowlights). Simpson seemed to be the guy, but I've heard he is still a little bit too turnover-prone. His dad is the HC at UT-Martin and having a coach's son at QB is usually a positive. I'm hoping it is narrowed down to 2 guys early in fall camp, and then we can see what they have against MTSU. I'm glad we aren't playing in a marquee week 1 game for this reason. And I'm doubly glad the Texas game is at home.
 
It's hard to just switch back on the hand the ball to the RB offense. Nebraska went away from a RB/FB centric offense with QB runs thrown in there to a QB centric offense with RB being the change of pace. Even with Tommie Frazier, Nebraska was not a QB offense.

Once Crouch was gone, too much was in the hands of his replacement and the rest of the team was unable to execute the plays necessary to diversify the offense. That diversity wasn't needed with Crouch against all but the best competition, but it was needed once he was gone. The end result is your offense has no identity - the new QB isn't capable of handling such a big load and the other guys can't make the other stuff work, especially against the top teams.

Just for aesthetic purposes, I wish bama would go 75/25 run/pass with Milroe. Think that would be fun as hell to watch.
 
cubsker said:
It's hard to just switch back on the hand the ball to the RB offense. Nebraska went away from a RB/FB centric offense with QB runs thrown in there to a QB centric offense with RB being the change of pace. Even with Tommie Frazier, Nebraska was not a QB offense.

Once Crouch was gone, too much was in the hands of his replacement and the rest of the team was unable to execute the plays necessary to diversify the offense. That diversity wasn't needed with Crouch against all but the best competition, but it was needed once he was gone. The end result is your offense has no identity - the new QB isn't capable of handling such a big load and the other guys can't make the other stuff work, especially against the top teams.

Just for aesthetic purposes, I wish bama would go 75/25 run/pass with Milroe. Think that would be fun as hell to watch.
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I agree it would be awesome to see them run like 60 times a game with Milroe as the quarterback. They’d average more rushing yards per game than the service academies.
 
Think the West could be wild? Bama, LSU, TAMU gotta be faves in that order yea? Wonder if we get a surprise team?
 
I know A&M has 4 and 5 star kids from top to bottom but outside of 2020, Jimbo has done nothing too remarkable in the conference. The guy makes 10 million a year and has gone just over .500 in conference play. I just don’t get all the love for an A&M team that went 5-7 last year.
 
And I think even with the obscene buyout, Jimbo could be on the hot seat. If any university could write a check for 85 million and not bat an eye, it is A&M.
 
I think Jimbo and aTm are definitely in a prove it season this year. It's hard to ignore the on-field issues, but also hard to ignore the talent on hand. I have my doubts as to how the Bobby Petrino experiment will end, but it wouldn't be a shock at all if they improve fairly significantly on the offensive end. I agree that Jimbo's seat is getting increasingly warm, and I don't think the buyout will get in the way if the school wants to move on
 
gps_3 said:
My thoughts on the Alabama situation are that the last 2 season's "failures" were largely a product of coaching/philosophy. Though if we don't lose our top 2 WRs and both starting CBs in 2021, we likely win the national championship that year, so it can't have been that bad. Regardless, I think on offense, the pendulum swung too far to the spread-type offense, and we lost any semblance of an offensive identity by the time Bryce took over. The OL became a little soft and a little small, and that carried over to the defense since that's what they practiced against every day. The OC/DC hires appear to indicate that Saban recognized this as well, especially watching UGA last year field an offense that was tough enough to grind out yards and steal the will of the defense, but also was plenty explosive. Bill O'Brien basically let Bryce be the offense, and it's not necessarily a bad thing given how good he is, but we saw what happened when he was hurt, and the one or two times he had a bad day. On defense, the Pete Golding experiment was proven to just not work. He may do good things over in Oxford, but nobody was sad to see him leave Tuscaloosa. The defensive game plan and adjustments (or lack of) against LSU should have been enough to fire him, but that's not Saban's style. Steele may be uninspiring, but I think he signals a return to some of the things that made Alabama what they are/were.

The QB situation is obviously what most people are talking about, and it is the most important position on the field, but I don't think it's as dire as most of our fans seem to think it is. It is true that the QBs on campus for spring did not perform as well as the coaches were hoping, thus the Buchner transfer. I think the competition will result in having a very capable player at that position, based on having beat out 4 highly talented and recruited players. And at this point, I don't discount any of the QBs winning the job, even the freshmen. Remember, Jalen Hurts ultimately beat out several highly rated and more experienced QBs by halftime of his first game in college against USC. However, I still expect Ty Simpson to be the guy

If QB works out, the rest of the roster is pretty strong. A little thin on OL past the first 6 guys, and not much star power at the DL spot as of yet, but overall will rate very highly on the talent composite. The OL has some legit star power on the right side with JC Latham and Tyler Booker, and true freshman Kadyn Proctor looks like he will be one in short order. Center is solid, just need to solidify the left side of the line. Again, some good candidates and competition, so I expect an OL that is improved from the last 2 seasons. Can probably withstand one injury on the line, past that could be an issue. Need a WR to step up as a true #1, and there are some good candidates there, we just need to see it. After a couple of seasons without a typical Saban RB, I like the look of the RB group this year. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are likely too good too keep off the field, so I expect them to take snaps from Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams pretty early in the season. TE has a lot of bodies that collectively make the position stronger as a unit, though I'm not sure there's a guy who's going to be all-conference caliber this year.

On defense, already mentioned that the DL doesn't have that certified badass that was a hallmark of past Saban defenses, though I think that freshman James Smith will eventually be that guy, just maybe not this season. A lot of really "good" players, so it's a deep unit that will be more solid than spectacular, unless someone like a Jaheim Oatis can build on his really solid season last year. At OLB, I know we lose Will Anderson, and you can't replace that, but we've recruited very well at that position the last few years. I know most people disagree, but I'm not sold on Dallas Turner being "that" guy. He will be good. no doubt, but he seemed to disappear in some games last year, even with Anderson drawing so much attention. He also made some mental errors that cost us points, and could have cost us some games. Most folks I follow are sky high on true freshman Keon Keeley, but he didn't enroll until summer, so he was one of the few incoming recruits that missed the spring. I don't have high expectations of him this season, but I don't discount it either. Most previews will tell you we lost both starters at ILB, and while technically true, Deontae Lawson played a ton last year, and would have been the starter if not for some injuries. Trez Marshall, the UGA transfer, also saw injury take away his playing time. So there's experience there, and the JUCO guy Jefferson has reportedly been really good, even if he is a little undersized. Also a couple of younger guys who may end up being too good off the field, especially Jihaad Campbell. The defensive backfield should be the strength of the defense. Kool-Aid McKinstry is likely the top CB in college, and Terrion Arnold on the other side is really solid. Safety was the main concern going into spring, but Caleb Downs was very impressive and will likely be a starter by game 1. Malachi Moore has played a ton of football, so he at minimum will be a steadying influence. He is at his best in nickel or dime when he moves closer to the line of scrimmage, so we'll see how the lineup changes. Earl Little Jr is a name to look out for

Special teams should be pretty solid. Will Reichard is already the leading scorer in Alabama history. Kool-Aid led the nation in yards per punt return last year. The punter, who didn't start playing football until very late, has improved each of the last two years, so I expect him to be in the middle to upper half of SEC punters this year. Not sure who will return kicks yet, but there's no shortage of candidates there.

As far as the season outlook, I think we will be a better team this year than last, despite losing Bryce Young and Will Anderson. We won't be able to replace their production per se, but I think the overall team will be stronger. If that results in a better on field result remains to be seen. The lack of mental toughness, particularly on the road, last year was very concerning, and I'm not 100% that's the kind of thing that can just be fixed in short order. I do think getting back to a more physical style on both offense and defense should hopefully help. They will need that mental toughness, because at least half of our schedule feels they can beat us. It's a fairly favorable schedule given the teams we play, but it will still be tough. My expectation is to win the West and compete for a CFP spot. The talent is there, not many excuses heading into fall camp. From a gambling perspective, I haven't necessarily found an angle just yet. May need to see a few games before I do, if at all. Unfortunately I think the days of blindly taking Alabama 1H, 1H TT over, and 1H over, are gone. They were fun while they lasted, but I think we will be going back more to what we see UGA do, and what Alabama did pre-2018, and that's just hammer away at a team until all of the sudden it's 45-6 by the start of the 4th quarter.

I would be more likely to bet Texas at the current number than LSU, given that it's early in the season and there will still be several position battles to sort out. I think we saw last year how much attention Sark gave this game all off-season, and I think it will be the same. LSU doesn't have that luxury, and by November, both teams could be completely different than what we thought pre-season. I trust our depth more than LSU's and think unless there's a catastrophic injury, we're unlikely to see LSU under the current number and far more likely that they're catching more than a TD by November. But I'm not much of a futures guy so I could be way off

Sorry for the long post, hope it's not too much sunshine pumping, but I do think we will be better than a lot are predicting. We are the second lowest odds to win the title for a reason, despite the toughest schedule of any of the favorites
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Spot on about the spread and getting soft. I remember too many times discussing this with the boys during Bama games.
 
Just a funny side note, our local guy read the names of the likely starting QBs for the league and then ran comparisons. Pretty weak group of names
 
gps_3 said:
I think Jimbo and aTm are definitely in a prove it season this year. It's hard to ignore the on-field issues, but also hard to ignore the talent on hand. I have my doubts as to how the Bobby Petrino experiment will end, but it wouldn't be a shock at all if they improve fairly significantly on the offensive end. I agree that Jimbo's seat is getting increasingly warm, and I don't think the buyout will get in the way if the school wants to move on
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It’s almost like they can’t get out of their own way. Too much talent, is this the year they get kinda lucky?
 
twinkie13 said:
It’s almost like they can’t get out of their own way. Too much talent, is this the year they get kinda lucky?
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There's a story at the Athletic that gives theories as to why aTm hasn't become an elite program. I tend to think their main issue (and the issue for many large, wealthy, and prominent public universities) is that they don't have the administration, the alumni, and the AD always pulling in the same direction. The reason Alabama, Ohio St, UGA currently, and others like Oklahoma are where they are, is because the football program has the complete support from the school itself. That story said something about 3 different major fundraising groups for aTm all having separate BOTs that are completely independent from the school BOT. There was a quote from the former AD that said that he had nothing to do with and wasn't even consulted about giving Kevin Sumlin either of his extensions. Also a lack of stability with multiple presidents and ADs over the last decade.

As far as this season, I don't know what to think, other than I'm not going to believe it until I see it. Schedule looks manageable, but I can see at least 1, maybe 2-3 losses by the time they get to the bye in mid-October.
 
twinkie13 said:
It’s almost like they can’t get out of their own way. Too much talent, is this the year they get kinda lucky?
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luck would have nothing to do with it.
If the qb whisperer groomed a qb, that might help.
Hopefully, it's Conner.
 
SEC Media Days starts today. Schedule here:

Monday, July 17​

Commissioner Greg Sankey (12:35 p.m.)
LSU (1:30 p.m.) -- Brian Kelly | QB Jayden Daniels, RB Josh Williams, DT Mekhi Wingo
Texas A&M (2:45 p.m.) -- Jimbo Fisher | DL Fadil Diggs, DL McKinnley Jackson, WR Ainias Smith
Missouri (3:45 p.m.) -- Eli Drinkwitz | DB Kris Abrams-Draine, OL Javon Foster, DL Darius Robinson

Tuesday, July 18​

Vanderbilt (10:05 a.m.) -- Clark Lea | LB Ethan Barr, S Jaylen Mahoney, WR Will Sheppard
Georgia (11:30 a.m.) -- Kirby Smart | TE Brock Bowers, DB Kamari Lassiter, OL Sedrick Van Pran
Auburn (2 p.m.) -- Hugh Freeze | TE Luke Deal, LB Elijah McAllister, OL Kameron Stutts
Mississippi State (3:25 p.m.) -- Zach Arnett | DT Jaden Crumedy, RB Jo'quavious Marks, QB Will Rogers

Wednesday, July 19​

Alabama (10:05 a.m.) -- Nick Saban | OL JC Latham, DB Kool-Aid McKinstry, LB Dallas Turner
Arkansas (11:30 a.m.) -- Sam Pittman | DE Landon Jackson, QB KJ Jefferson, RB Raheim Sanders
Florida (2 p.m.) -- Billy Napier | OL Kingsley Eguakun, DB Jason Marshall Jr., WR Ricky Pearsall
Kentucky (3:25 p.m.) -- Mark Stoops | OL Eli Cox, DL Octavious Oxendine, LB J.J. Weaver

Thursday, July 20
Ole Miss (10:05 a.m.) -- Lane Kiffin | DE Cedric Johnson, RB Quinshon Judkins, CB Deantre Prince
South Carolina (11:30 a.m.) - Shane Beamer | DL Tonka Hemingway, P Kai Kroeger, QB Spencer Rattler
Tennessee (1 p.m.) -- Josh Heupel | QB Joe Milton III, DL Omari Thomas, TE Jacob Warren

​


I don't expect to learn too much of any importance. I do think that the media will pick LSU to win the West
 
Not to rile @gps_3 up but this Bama team has a ton of uncertainty to me.

I’ve eaten my words a ton on Bama QB play but Tommy Rees and ND transfer has to be telling of what they think they got at QB. Not a huge Rees fan here.
 
twinkie13 said:
Not to rile @gps_3 up but this Bama team has a ton of uncertainty to me.

I’ve eaten my words a ton on Bama QB play but Tommy Rees and ND transfer has to be telling of what they think they got at QB. Not a huge Rees fan here.
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I mean that's certainly a fair take. There is uncertainty. The potential of the team is national championship caliber. But there's a lot that will have to be proven on the field. They will certainly be tested.

Saban was as effusive in his praise of Rees as I've ever seen him when talking about an assistant coach. It certainly sounds like he is more relatable to the players than O'Brien (not a stretch of the imagination there). We'll see how it goes, but I'm optimistic. One thing on Buchner that I didn't realize until this past week: his senior season of HS was canceled because of Covid. Then injuries shortened both of his seasons at Notre Dame. So he hasn't played a ton of football in the last 3 years, but when he does play, it's been good enough to start at a pretty high level program. I don't think he will end up winning the job at Alabama this season, but if he did and stayed healthy, I don't think it would be a bad thing
 
gps_3 said:
Yeah I just don't see much that can trip them up before they get to Atlanta. I guess if Tenn beats them convincingly and wins the East, then Tenn loses to the West champ, I could see SOS coming into the discussion, but being 2 time defending champ will probably carry them even in that scenario
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If we beat Jorga you can mark it down we lose to Vandy

Vandy is Thanksgiving Weekend too

Those Are our last 2 Home Games though
 
Timh said:
GPS any updates on Milroe? Do you expect him to hit the portal?
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Nothing really to update as practice didn't start until today. Milroe exited spring as a shaky #1, but it's still up to the other guys to beat him out of a starting job. That may not happen in camp, or the first game, or at all. I half expect it to still be an open competition leading into the MTSU game, and possibly into the Texas game. The portal doesn't open until after the conference championship games, so Milroe, or whomever, has plenty of time to decide that what they are going to do. I'm still sticking to the job is ultimately won by Ty Simpson, but I don't have much to base that on to this point
 
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