SEC Bowl Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
SEC Bowl games:

12/27:

South Carolina (+3/61) vs Miami

12/29:

aTm (+3'/67) vs West Virginia

Arkansas (-6/45') vs Texas

12/30:

LSU (-7/52') vs Notre Dame

UGA (NL) vs Louisville

12/31:

Ole Miss (+3/56') vs TCU

Miss St (-7/61') vs Georgia Tech

1/1:

Auburn (-6'/61') vs Wisconsin

Missouri (-6/48) vs Minnesota

Alabama (-9/58') vs Ohio St

1/2:

Tennessee (-3'/51') vs Iowa

1/3:

Florida (-7/57) vs East Carolina


Discuss....
 
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One of the hardest things to cap in bowl season is motivation level. I think that you can only assume max effort/prep/focus for the four playoff teams. I like to try to figure our motivation level for teams to help steer my wagers. My first thoughts on this for each SEC team:

Alabama - obvious

Auburn - would think after last season and losing to Alabama and firing a Def Coord, motivation is not high, but Auburn has historically gotten up for all bowl games

Arkansas - think the motivation will be high- first bowl in a few years against a traditional rival and big name

LSU - lean toward good motivation, as Notre Dame still gets your attention

Florida - low motivation

UGA - medium to poor motivation IMO.

Miss St - I could make an argument for either, as they are no doubt demoralized losing 2 of 3 after being #1, and not a real sexy opponent, but got to be the biggest bowl in their history, chance for 11 wins for first time in school history, and Dak a chance to impress NFL scouts before deciding to leave or stay, I can see them motivated

Ole Miss - think they've got to be on the upswing of the roller coaster they've been on this season

Missouri - Not sure. Just lost SEC CG, but nobody expected them to win, and they weren't playing for a spot in the playoff, so I can't say they'll be unmotivated. I'll give Pinkel the benefit of the doubt to get his team up

South Carolina - think this is a season to forget for them and lean toward them wanting to get it over with. Spurrier probably pissed that he's not in Florida for better golf weather

Texas A&M - medium to low motivation.

Tennessee - high motivation
 
What will Wisconsin's psyche be like after being nationally embarrassed and shut out? That would tend to lead me to believe they will be fairly motivated rather than flat off of what could've been. Losing 59-0 in your biggest game of the year with everyone watching has a way to eat at one's soul would it not? Coach spin would be luckily they get to play one game, they don't have to end their season with that game. Gordon won;t win the Heisman, something he spoke openly about dreaming of and as a goal. Maybe he tries to prove something?

Still I'd probably only be interested in Badgers if they were catching about 10. I see it at 7/6 now.
 
Im not sure what effect the new coach has on UF, if they like him they will play hard for him.
 
Troutman said:
Im not sure what effect the new coach has on UF, if they like him they will play hard for him.
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He won't coach the bowl. I think aub will score a ton in Wisconsin. And Wisconsin will have about 500 yards rushing. Interested in the total there
 
gps_3 said:
I have been thinking they'd be my biggest play ever since they got bowl eligible.
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I had the same thought, but their match-up against Texas has tempered my enthusiasm quite a bit. Like Arkansas, Texas will be a highly motivated team, and I can't quite forget what a Charlie Strong-coached Louisville team did to Florida a few years ago. Both teams have been getting better every week, and both have played pretty good football down the stretch. I lean slightly to Arky here, but I see this game as a proverbial coin-flip game. I firmly believe this will be a very close game that will go down to the wire.

This should be a boringly low-scoring game, so you can bet I will be all over the 1st half UNDER.
 
gps_3 said:
And Wisconsin will have about 500 yards rushing
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That would be my first impression as well, but Auburn has faced a couple of teams similar to Wisconsin in Arkansas and LSU and fared pretty well against both teams. Moreover, the strength of Auburn's defense is clearly their defensive line. Because Wisconsin has zero passing game to speak of, Auburn should be able to load up against the run. Thus, I actually think Auburn's defense will do a pretty good job in limiting Wisconsin offensively. On the other hand, I think Auburn's offense should be able to get into the 40s here without too much trouble. Much like Arkansas did, I think Whisky will hang tough in the 1st half, but that Auburn will distance themselves in the 2nd half. In fact I'll go ahead and predict the exact same score in this game as the Arky/Auburn game . . . 42-21 Auburn.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Highly touted "D" line vs. Cutblocks. How many draft eligible players on Miss St line?
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Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech is an intriguing match-up, but extra preparation time usually spells doom for triple option teams. If Mississippi State is motivated, they should win this game pretty easily.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I had the same thought, but their match-up against Texas has tempered my enthusiasm quite a bit. Like Arkansas, Texas will be a highly motivated team, and I can't quite forget what a Charlie Strong-coached Louisville team did to Florida a few years ago. Both teams have been getting better every week, and both have played pretty good football down the stretch. I lean slightly to Arky here, but I see this game as a proverbial coin-flip game. I firmly believe this will be a very close game that will go down to the wire.

This should be a boringly low-scoring game, so you can bet I will be all over the 1st half UNDER.
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Agreed. Texas was not the matchup I wanted to see
 
Arkansas offense is the dream match up for the University of Texas ... Texas Offense is the dream match up for Everyone University,
 
captjohn67 said:
haven't dug into anything, but at first blush i would take Louisville and Ga Tech.
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I agree on Louisville because Mark Richt is Georgia's coach. And even though the Bulldogs should win this game comfortably, Richt will figure out a way to lose it. I think Georgia's lack of interest in this game will also help keep this one close.

Strongly disagree On Georgia Tech. Tech will definitely keep this game close for a little while, but Mississippi State will pull away at the end. I look for a 42-27 type of final score.
 
I think Wisconsin will be able to move the ball pretty well against Auburn. I'm thinking that game ends up in the 45-38ish range. Current total (at Cantor anyway) is 61.

Will probably be on TCU if -3 or lower is still available when I'm able to actually place wagers in two weeks. Always risky to back the jilted lover in these types of situations, but I have followed TCU for a long time and from what I know about Patterson, he'll get those guys up for that game.
 
Maybe it's my SEC bias, but I feel like most teams get up to some degree to play teams from that conference. I guess it's because ESPN tells us all year how great Tennessee really is
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I agree on Louisville because Mark Richt is Georgia's coach. And even though the Bulldogs should win this game comfortably, Richt will figure out a way to lose it. I think Georgia's lack of interest in this game will also help keep this one close.

Strongly disagree On Georgia Tech. Tech will definitely keep this game close for a little while, but Mississippi State will pull away at the end. I look for a 42-27 type of final score.
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think someone brought it up, not afraid of the cut blocks and potential for injury in a "meaningless" bowl
 
Just read your post about prep time, even with prep I could see some of these players not going all out with paycheques waiting for them on the otherside
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe it's my SEC bias, but I feel like most teams get up to some degree to play teams from that conference. I guess it's because ESPN tells us all year how great Tennessee really is
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I totally agree. All teams seem to get up for bowl games when matched up against a SEC team. I wonder if we'll see the anti-SEC officiating we've seen the past few years?
 
gsro said:
think someone brought it up, not afraid of the cut blocks and potential for injury in a "meaningless" bowl
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That's a great point no doubt. Personally I don't think that'll be an issue because this is ground-breaking territory for Mississippi State. I think they really want to prove to the world that they are one of the best teams in the nation, and that being ranked at #1 for several weeks wasn't a fluke. I think if Mullen gets a chance to run the score up in this game he won't miss the opportunity to do so. Mississippi State will try to win this game as impressively as possible.
 
I must be out of it. So I went to the Rusty Nail in NO for 1st half of the SEC Ship(I had to leave at half, had enough). Nice enterprise my comrades have built there...I couldn't believe how many people drove in from out of state to watch the game there...Anyhow...I am sitting there and Dixieland Delight comes on. Like Katy Perry and the corndogs, I swear I never knew what the fuck these people were saying...

Spend my dollar (ON BEER),
Parked in a holler ‘neath the mountain moonlight (ROLL TIDE),
Hold her uptight (AGAINST THE WALL),
Make a little lovin’ (ALL NIGHT),
A little turtle dovin’ on a Mason Dixon night (**** AUBURN),
Fits my life (AND LSU), oh so right (AND TENNESSEE, TOO),
My Dixieland Delight.




I guess I should feel honored we have moved past Tenny in hatred
 
gps_3 said:
SEC Bowl games:

12/27:

South Carolina vs Miami

12/29:

aTm vs West Virginia

Arkansas vs Texas

12/30:

LSU vs Notre Dame

UGA vs Louisville

12/31:

Ole Miss vs TCU

Miss St vs Georgia Tech

1/1:

Auburn vs Wisconsin

Missouri vs Minnesota

Alabama vs Ohio St

1/2:

Tennessee vs Iowa

1/3:

Florida vs East Carolina


Discuss....
Click to expand...

TCU vs. Ole Miss feels like Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss in 2008. Highly touted offense vs. Salty defense. Ole Miss will be without their top 2 WRs and I don't expect much of a running game from them.
 
Grovehard said:
TCU vs. Ole Miss feels like Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss in 2008. Highly touted offense vs. Salty defense. Ole Miss will be without their top 2 WRs and I don't expect much of a running game from them.
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What is the wide receiver situation at Ole Miss? How do you feel about the TCU matchup?
 
I can't get the image of Swoopes vs TCU out of my head. Probably the worst QB play I have ever seen above the high school level. Don't see Tex doing much on offense here.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
What is the wide receiver situation at Ole Miss? How do you feel about the TCU matchup?
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There's some talent in the WR corps., but consistency has been an issue without Treadwell. Sanders going down was a big blow, but Engram stepped up against State. If TCU can't cover the TE spot Engram will burn them.

I think Ole Miss' D is built for these types of offenses. There's not a better secondary in the country. Having said that I expect TCU to put up some points. That's just the nature of the modern game. I am concerned about Ole Miss' ability to answer with points even if the D holds TCU to 21, 24, 27. I don't know much about TCU's D, but I respect Patterson, and I'm sure he will have them ready. Bottom line - I think the number is about right, and I will likely sit this one out.
 
Grovehard said:
There's some talent in the WR corps., but consistency has been an issue without Treadwell. Sanders going down was a big blow, but Engram stepped up against State. If TCU can't cover the TE spot Engram will burn them.

I think Ole Miss' D is built for these types of offenses. There's not a better secondary in the country. Having said that I expect TCU to put up some points. That's just the nature of the modern game. I am concerned about Ole Miss' ability to answer with points even if the D holds TCU to 21, 24, 27. I don't know much about TCU's D, but I respect Patterson, and I'm sure he will have them ready. Bottom line - I think the number is about right, and I will likely sit this one out.
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Both injuries were big blows. The circumstances of Treadwell's injury was heartbreaking. I felt awful for him and the entire Ole Miss organization. Absolutely tragic!!!

I also feel bad for Ole Miss going into the TCU matchup. If they were at full strength, I would be supremely confident they would take down Ole Miss. At it is, it probably a coin-flip game.

I have some interest in the 1st half UNDER.
 
Added lines to the top post

Could mean something, could mean nothing, but Ohio St OC Tom Herman is new Houston HC. Will coach against Alabama, but will also be preparing for his other job one would have to assume. Could be a distraction, could be a rallying point too. Rumors that he won't coach the next game if they win
 
I think the SEC teams are really going to be up for their games against the ACC given the ass whooping they took this season, specifically the 0-4 final week

Gotta think Spurrier doesn't want to finish 0-2 against the ACC and have his first losing record
Georgia should really be fired up to try and have a winning record against the ACC as well
Not sure about Miss St but you have to think they want to try and prove the SEC is superior to the ACC as well
 
I could see the coaches doing that, but have a hard time buying in that college kids take that macro conf vs Conf viewpoint.
 
My only point was that these players watch sports center. They know the reputation the SEC has. Whether they are the strongest conference or not is immaterial. The whole country is force fed sec dominance and I would guess most teams would consider it a feather in their cap to knock off the almighty SEC. Maybe I'm wrong.

Dwight, I assume your post is sarcasm. I assume every year that uga won't show up for their bowl because they feel they deserve better because of their unmet potential and expectations. I also don't think Spurrier gives two shits about playing in Shreveport. Miss St I feel will be up for their game, but not for conference superiority
 
gps_3 said:
Dwight, I assume your post is sarcasm. I assume every year that uga won't show up for their bowl because they feel they deserve better because of their unmet potential and expectations. I also don't think Spurrier gives two shits about playing in Shreveport. Miss St I feel will be up for their game, but not for conference superiority
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Yes it was a total troll. I don't think that Spurrier cares but I don't really think Miami does either. I certainly don't think Miami is excited about a game in Shreveport against a 6-6 squad just because that shitty team happens to be from the SEC. Louisville will probably be up for their game to win one for Grantham. Georgia Tech already won their SuperBowl by beating UGA and is mentally drained from a heartbreak against the Noles. I don't think they really care about playing a Miss St squad anymore than Miss St cares about playing them. Though my post was in sarcasm I think its pretty rare that another FBS level team gets up for playing a middle of the road SEC team.

Omitting the games above because I already gave my thoughts
WVU vs TAMU - WVU probably more motivated because they somewhat exceeded expectations. However this isn't exactly a game Sumlin can lose and keep the natives happy coming off a disappointing season after such a great start. I consider it wash personally
Arkansas vs Texas - Arkansas likely much more motivated to get a shot at a big brother type of program. Strong will have Texas ready to play but it ain't because Arkansas is affiliated with the SEC. Motivational edge Arkansas IMO
UGA vs Ville - motivational edge Ville
SoCar vs Miami - motivational edge a wash
GT vs Miss St - motivational edge a wash
Ole Miss vs TCU - motivational edge a wash IMO though I suppose a letdown could be envisioned for TCU as they feel they should be in the playoff and are now facing an inferior squad. They could be the Bama of last year but the difference is that if they lose, it won't be championed as a game where they didn't care.
Auburn vs Wisconsin - I would have given the edge to Wisky if they weren't such a mess but with all that's happened I call it a wash
Mizzou vs Minnesota - motivational edge to Minnesota here
Iowa vs Tennessee - this is like Iowa's 9th straight bowl game against an SEC team it seems like so I'm sure they're over it. It's the Vols first under Butch. Motivational edge to the Vols
ECU vs Florida - major edge to ECU from a motivational standpoint
 
My motivation capping was purely an exercise on the sec side of things. I don't know as much about the inner workings of the other programs, so I appreciate any and all input. Moots only one part of the equation though, and I'm hoping to dive farther into some of the other stuff soon
 
gps_3 said:
My motivation capping was purely an exercise on the sec side of things. I don't know as much about the inner workings of the other programs, so I appreciate any and all input. Moots only one part of the equation though, and I'm hoping to dive farther into some of the other stuff soon
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Totally agree that it's only one part of the equation. More times than not, talent and matchup advantages will prevail.
 
Right now, the only SEC teams I lean ATS are LSU, Miss St, AU, and Tennessee, though I think I saw our resident expert for SGU on the hawkeyes, so it gives me pause
 
gps_3 said:
Right now, the only SEC teams I lean ATS are LSU, Miss St, AU, and Tennessee, though I think I saw our resident expert for SGU on the hawkeyes, so it gives me pause
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No real opinion on LSU yet

Miss St should be fine against the option with a month to prepare just as most teams (sans USC) have been against Paul Johnson's GT attack. GT defense is horrid so Dax could put up video game numbers

Auburn, if they show up, should roll Wisky. Coming off a 59-0 loss and then losing your HC to having the asshole AD man the ship is another 59-0 waiting to happen. It won't be that bad but I think Aubbie by 3 TDs

Tennessee I agree with. They are pumped. They will travel. It will be a de facto home game. As long as the players dont party all week I think they win by a TD
 
gps_3 said:
You disagree?
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Yes. I mean not always ... if it were a Mac team or something, I could see it but they would likely have the same motivation level vs acc, big12, pac12 as the sec ( maybe not bigten since they play and beat them all the tine ).
 
Ole Miss starting OG out with torn ACL. Started 11 games, missed egg bowl
 
gps_3 said:
Ole Miss starting OG out with torn ACL. Started 11 games, missed egg bowl
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Not a huge loss. Depth takes a hit obviously, but Taylor, the back up is better. He's just young. I wouldn't factor that in to my capping.

Also, just saw Collins left State for UF. Does that negate the month of preparation for the option angle?
 
Grovehard said:
Not a huge loss. Depth takes a hit obviously, but Taylor, the back up is better. He's just young. I wouldn't factor that in to my capping.

Also, just saw Collins left State for UF. Does that negate the month of preparation for the option angle?
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What of your thoughts on Ole Miss' chances against TCU? It seems not many people are giving Ole Miss much of a chance.
 
Haven't posted any picks this year, so no record. But here are some plays that I've made for bowls. Some are tails, some are my own

N. Illinois +10
SDSt -2'
Oklahoma -3
LSU -7
Louisville +7
Miss St -6' (-115)
Auburn -6'
Mich St +3
FSU +9 - will likely add some ML
Kansas St +105
ECU +7' (-130)
 
apparently TAMU has reached out to J Chavis for the DC job.....LSU has an extension yet to be signed

pressitup and all.....what up?
 
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