SEC Bowl Discussion

The only thing I can imagine aTm could offer that LSU couldn't is some money. I imagine the line for guys wanting to coach the defense at LSU would be a long one
 
Jimmydafreak said:
What of your thoughts on Ole Miss' chances against TCU? It seems not many people are giving Ole Miss much of a chance.
Click to expand...

I'm sure Freeze will use that as motivation, but with the injuries to their top 2 WRs, I'm not sure if my Rebs can keep pace. I don't think TCU has played against a defense as good as this one all year, but I also don't think they will need to put up many points to win.

Freeze found a way to manufacture points in the Egg Bowl, but I don't think you can count on a halfback pass TDs and 90 yard runs from your backs to consistently score. If TCU can't cover Engram Ole Miss will hang around, but without turnovers or a defensive score I think TCU wins a close one.
 
Really like Louisville +7.....just seems like a "who gives a shit" game for UGA where as it could be a big statement game for Ville.
 
I had the miss st season wins over and i like their team and qb but do we really know how good they are gps?

[TABLE="class: game-log, width: 819"]
<tbody style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TH="class: date, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: opponent, bgcolor: #616161"]Opponent[/TH]
[TH="class: surface, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Surface[/TH]
[TH="class: result, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Result[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-att, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Att[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-yard, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Yards[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-avg, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]Avg.[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-td, bgcolor: #616161, align: center"]TD[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]08/30/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Southern Miss.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 49-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]71[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]09/06/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]UAB[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 47-34[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]113[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]09/13/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ South Ala.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Turf[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 35-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]09/20/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ 22 LSU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 34-29[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]10/04/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Texas A&M[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 48-31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]161[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.19[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]10/11/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]19 Auburn[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 38-23[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]232[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.40[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]10/25/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 45-31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]11/01/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 17-10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]163[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.29[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]11/08/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Tenn.-Martin[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 45-16[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]151[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.97[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]11/15/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ 1 Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]L 20-25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]124[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.88[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]11/22/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Vanderbilt[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]W 51-0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.81[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC"]
[TD="class: date, align: center"]11/29/14[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ 9 Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Turf[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]L 17-31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]205[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.61[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date totals, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: opponent totals, colspan: 3"]Totals[/TD]
[TD="class: totals, align: center"]410[/TD]
[TD="class: totals, align: center"]1518[/TD]
[TD="class: totals, align: center"]3.70[/TD]
[TD="class: totals, align: center"]11[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I don't think Miss St is any world beater, but I do think they are more talented than Georgia Tech, and I think they are motivated. I'd have to check to make sure, but I'm pretty sure they've never had an 11 win season. They've shown up in the bowls since Mullen has been there
 
Yeah just checked. Never had 11 wins. Only 3rd time they've had 10. Chance for them to go out as greatest team in school history. Plus, even with the DC leaving, a month of prep mitigates the option advantage angle IMO
 
aplous said:
Really like Louisville +7.....just seems like a "who gives a shit" game for UGA where as it could be a big statement game for Ville.
Click to expand...

Think it could be similar to Louisville vs Florida in the Sugar Bowl a couple of years ago. UGA still whining that they should have won the East
 
Grovehard said:
I'm sure Freeze will use that as motivation, but with the injuries to their top 2 WRs, I'm not sure if my Rebs can keep pace. I don't think TCU has played against a defense as good as this one all year, but I also don't think they will need to put up many points to win.

Freeze found a way to manufacture points in the Egg Bowl, but I don't think you can count on a halfback pass TDs and 90 yard runs from your backs to consistently score. If TCU can't cover Engram Ole Miss will hang around, but without turnovers or a defensive score I think TCU wins a close one.
Click to expand...

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Ole Miss pulls it out. Not sure I'll bet it, but just a feeling. SEC bias I guess
 
gps_3 said:
Move to aTm never made sense to me. No offense to Aggie, but that's not even a lateral move. That's why I said it would have to be money that would get him to jump
Click to expand...

I should clarify the deal is on the table, not yet signed though.....he wants to be paid and rightfully so
 
Grovehard said:
I'm sure Freeze will use that as motivation, but with the injuries to their top 2 WRs, I'm not sure if my Rebs can keep pace. I don't think TCU has played against a defense as good as this one all year, but I also don't think they will need to put up many points to win.

Freeze found a way to manufacture points in the Egg Bowl, but I don't think you can count on a halfback pass TDs and 90 yard runs from your backs to consistently score. If TCU can't cover Engram Ole Miss will hang around, but without turnovers or a defensive score I think TCU wins a close one.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your response. Your feelings are much like mine. IMO this will clearly be the best defense TCU has faced all season, and for Ole Miss to have a shot, their defense will have to keep them in it. The wide receiver injuries are obviously a big problem for a team that really doesn't run the ball very well. You have to think that Gary Patterson will have a solid defensive game plan to limit Ole Miss' scoring opportunities.

My thoughts are that when you have a defense as good as Ole Miss', you will always have a shot to win. But as you say, will the offense be able to score enough points to pull it out? I also lean TCU to win the game, but will probably play the points if I decide to get involved.
 
Matchups favor tcu just about everywhere imo .. I just don't see how they are motivated to play this game. Also, I don't understand how TCU coach can get coach of the year when he probably has the best team in the nation and can't even make the playoffs. How does
Pinkel, Mullen, Fisher, admiral, Cum, Snyder, or any number of other guys not beat him out in that voting?

I would go with Pinkel personally.... since he had a top 50, maybe 40 team and won a division of the best conference in football, I would think he deserves some respect.
 
Any thoughts on today's (or the remaining) SEC games? I already bet aTm before the Trickett announcement was made. Like I mentioned earlier either in this thread or elsewhere, I was prepared to make Arkansas my biggest bet of the bowls until they got matched up with Texas. Very similar teams. Think motivation will be good enough for both teams. Under seems obvious, but 44' can get over in a hurry with a fluky score or two, as we've already seen this bowl season. Lean Ark to win, but not sure I will lay the 6'
 
Looking for any noteworthy news for the SEC.

Here in state, there is quite a bit of rumor surrounding Duke Williams at Auburn. Malzahn announced a week or two ago that they weren't counting on him to play due to injury and/or illness, which seems like a long time ahead of the game to rule someone out, unless it was a significant injury. Since that time, it has been rumored that he would be ineligible due to not going to class, or that he had signed with an agent. He didn't travel with the team to Tampa, but did arrive later with some kind of "eye issue." The last I heard from one of my AU buddies is that he got in a fight with a teammate and got knocked the F out. All that to say that it appears highly unlikely that Williams will play for AU, probably ever again. Without Williams, the AU passing game takes a huge hit. Coates is inconsistent, and if you can double him, he is largely ineffective. AU's offense looked pretty bland without Williams against aTm and UGA. I don't think it changes my mind that AU runs away from Wisky, but something to think about. Certainly not a 2-3 unit play anymore
 
I agree with you on the Arkansas matchup. I think I'm gonna take Texas. No clue what I'm gonna do with the early game yet but I'll do something
 
WVU back up QB isn't too bad. I don't expect much decline in the offense. I would expect WVU to run the ball more, similar to their game with ISU late in the year without Trickett. Texas A&M run D is bad -- ranked 111th in the nation. WVU is the pick.
 
Also looking for thoughts on Alabama vs Ohio St. I don't want to clutter Capping Genius' pick thread with my thoughts or general discussion on the game, so I'll post it here.

It seems nearly everyone here is on Ohio St + the points, and I can't argue that. I'm not sure any of the top 6-8 teams are 10 points better than any of each other. When I cap bowl games, especially between highly ranked teams, one thing I look at is who has more good players, or better said, more future/potential NFL players. I am a firm believer that jimmy's and joe's matter more than X's and O's. Doesn't mean that scheme can't win, but over a long period of time and a ton of games, talent is going to win more often than not. That said, Ohio St is one of the few teams that can match up with Alabama athlete to athlete. I think the difference there is negligible. I would much rather be facing Oregon, Baylor, or TCU to be honest. That alone will keep me from taking Alabama ATS.

One thing to keep an eye on is that TJ Yeldon hasn't been able to practice full speed yet, and he might not be 100% by Thursday. That will be somewhat mitigated by Henry and Tyren Jones, but when the game has been on the line this season, TJ has gotten the carries. Almost (should have) cost us the LSU game.

Things I'm trying to figure out: How will the 3rd string QB do on this big of a stage? How does Alabama's experience in these games help them? How does the familiarity between Meyer and Saban play out? How will Alabama OL fare against Ohio St DL? And same for OSU OL? Will OSU try to single cover Amari? Will Kiffin be able to move Amari around to get one on one matchups? Can Alabama secondary cover the deep ball? Will either team be able to run the ball effectively?

My thoughts (homer alert) on Alabama are that while not the most talented team under Saban, this is the most tight knit one. Blake Sims winning the QB job, and then doing so well, has really given this team something that has been missing. McCarron was great at Alabama, but Sims is certainly more respected around the program, and is a much better leader than AJ ever dreamed of being. I think Alabama wins along the lines of 34-21
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
WVU back up QB isn't too bad. I don't expect much decline in the offense. I would expect WVU to run the ball more, similar to their game with ISU late in the year without Trickett. Texas A&M run D is bad -- ranked 111th in the nation. WVU is the pick.
Click to expand...

Somewhat telling that after Trickett ruled out, line only moved to WVU -2. I'm sticking with aTm +3', but I don't really like it
 
Update on Duke Williams, per Malzahn, he is suspended for Outback Bowl for breaking team rules
 
I have a feeling Wisky shows up after that embarrassment in Big 10 final....Auburn run D suspect and we know Wisky can run it.
 
aplous said:
I have a feeling Wisky shows up after that embarrassment in Big 10 final....Auburn run D suspect and we know Wisky can run it.
Click to expand...

A lot of angles to consider on Wisconsin. Blowout loss, lose coach, Alvarez coaching bowl game. Could definitely play with a chip on their shoulder, or pack it in completely. AU is definitely better at run defense than pass defense. On a yd/g basis, would be about 5th in big 10. Not an apples to apples comparison, but I think AU has decent to good DL talent. Not sure Wisconsin can take advantage of AU pass D. Wisky will get theirs more than likely, but AU offense probably near the equivalent of Ohio State's
 
Just took Texas +7'. Everything I looked at says these are pretty much equal teams. Will take the points.
 
I made a bad error in regards to my handicapping of the texas ark game. A vast majority of my focus was on the matchup between the texas defense and arky offense which I felt I largely got correct. I had the under as well so I obviously didn't think texas rated to score a ton either but

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
ARK[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
TEX[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]9-17[/TD]
[TD]3-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]351[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]12-23[/TD]
[TD]13-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]7.0[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]191[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]2-15[/TD]
[TD]5-34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]41:10[/TD]
[TD]18:50[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
24 pts from ark offense while while holding texas to 59 yards tells me the bulk of my reasoning was ok ,,,, meaning that number is probably 17 or lower if Texas does anything at all on offense.

big12 today ... wow
 
I need TCU to cover for the pool I'm in, but I have this feeling that Ole Miss pulls it out. Not to get into the conference rah rah, but the SEC has looked pretty good while the Big 12, hasn't. Not betting other than maybe half or live. I am on Miss St tonight. Don't think Ga Tech can keep up
 
Big 12 has looked like a steaming pile of shit......though all year Ive thought it has been TCU and Baylor....then K-State....then OU/WV/Texas in terms of tiers. Here's to hoping the top teams have better success....I've got TCU in a number of plays and Baylor in a couple -2.5 and +3.5. And obviously will be rooting for my alma mater.

PAC 12 has been quite impressive thus far though....4-0 SU.

TCU offense is well balanced which should help them today...and I do think their D is solid as well. I think they will have a decent crowd today as well with this being their biggest bowl game besides the Rose Bowl a few years ago. I do think Boykin will be the best QB that the Ole Miss D has faced this year.
 
gps_3 said:
I need TCU to cover for the pool I'm in, but I have this feeling that Ole Miss pulls it out. Not to get into the conference rah rah, but the SEC has looked pretty good while the Big 12, hasn't. Not betting other than maybe half or live. I am on Miss St tonight. Don't think Ga Tech can keep up
Click to expand...

can't wait to see Dak's props, they'll be skewed out of sight
 
What is TCU's run game like? Do they run between the tackles? Or do they run around the ends with a lot of speed? If it's speed, I like Ole Miss' defense to do a pretty job of containing them. They struggle more with the run right at you teams like LSU and Arky. If Alabama had just run Yeldon and Henry 35+ times, we may have won that game
 
gps_3 said:
What is TCU's run game like? Do they run between the tackles? Or do they run around the ends with a lot of speed? If it's speed, I like Ole Miss' defense to do a pretty job of containing them. They struggle more with the run right at you teams like LSU and Arky. If Alabama had just run Yeldon and Henry 35+ times, we may have won that game
Click to expand...


Little bit of both...typical spread O with 1 back. They'll run up the gut, off tackle.
 
We’ll write more about the game in the coming days, but for now I want to address another very concerning topic - the fact that defensive coordinator John Chavis appears to have one foot out the door. Texas A&M has reportedly offered Chavis a three-year contract worth $5 million with a fourth-year option. LSU, on the other hand, has reportedly offered a three-year contract worth $4 million that includes a provision that Chavis doesn’t like - one stating that if Les Miles were no longer the head coach, Chavis would be compensated for only the next six months. According to the Advocate, LSU has also offered Chavis a two-year contract that does not include the “Miles clause.”
At this point it appears likely that Chavis will take the A&M job and that an announcement will be made soon, but that is far from certain. Coach Miles danced around the question in his post-game press conference, and Coach Chavis became testy when asked about it and refused to comment. If Chavis does leave, there’s a good chance that defensive line coach Brick Haley will go along with him, and that could be devastating for LSU’s 2015 recruiting efforts. As for who would replace Chavis should he leave, two men being mentioned are Alabama linebackers coach Kevin Steele and Louisiana-native Ed Orgeron, an assistant at USC and head coach at Ole Miss from 2005-07.
 
Wish I wouldve known he was out the door and his defense wouldn't show up yesterday before I teased LSU twice
 
Glad I didn't bet on my feeling. The Bo Wallace we all love and know showed up today
 
Hey guys, what's up? Anything happen while I was gone? Been at the beach, only watched one game after the Peach Bowl. I'm sure y'all can figure out which one. Props to the Buckeyes and their backers, esp Capping Genius for the SU win. Ohio St was the better team that night. You could sense it in pregame and they played to win while it looked like Alabama played not to lose, especially after getting up 21-6. Will never understand why we didn't continue to run the ball. Our OL held up great and even dominated their DL in the run game. I won't even mention the defensive effort put up by Alabama. Brutal. But hey, our punter is a badass. Might only have 2 more seasons of him (g). Anyway time for the next batch of players. Hope Saban and Co figure some things out. Not sure on coaching staff changes, but I'm hearing that Kevin Steele is almost certainly out of here. Maybe to LSU. Hope nobody followed my thoughts on the SEC. Who would have guessed that the East would go 5-0 and the West 2-5? Level of competition was certainly different, but nice bowl season for the lesser side of the conference.

Hope everyone at CTG had a great holiday season. I'm not as active during the offseason for NCAAF, but I enjoy the conversations here, so I'll try to keep the site part of my daily web routine.
 
I am watching this replay of the tOSU/Bama game on ESPNU. With about 7 minutes to go, 2nd and 7, Bama driving for would have been the go-ahead score on a tiring defense, Kiffin breaks out one of the worst playcalls I have ever seen. It was so poor I cannot actually identify what the play was intended to be. All I know is that it was an unnecessary and ill-fated pass play that resulted in Sims running for his life before gaining a single yard. Then on 3rd and 6 they came back with either another horrific pass play that he bailed on or it was just an ill-conceived QB draw that gained nothing and resulted in a punt. If those 2nd and 3rd down plays are runs I am literally 100% certain they keep the drive going and likely take the lead with under 5 minutes to go.
 
TheGarfather said:
I am watching this replay of the tOSU/Bama game on ESPNU. With about 7 minutes to go, 2nd and 7, Bama driving for would have been the go-ahead score on a tiring defense, Kiffin breaks out one of the worst playcalls I have ever seen. It was so poor I cannot actually identify what the play was intended to be. All I know is that it was an unnecessary and ill-fated pass play that resulted in Sims running for his life before gaining a single yard. Then on 3rd and 6 they came back with either another horrific pass play that he bailed on or it was just an ill-conceived QB draw that gained nothing and resulted in a punt. If those 2nd and 3rd down plays are runs I am literally 100% certain they keep the drive going and likely take the lead with under 5 minutes to go.
Click to expand...

Sadly, there were several drives like this. Again, it may be a matter of Kiffin trying to be too smart, or the players not executing, or both. Same thing happened in other games, namely Ole Miss. Like I mentioned earlier, hopefully the coaches are doing a lot of self evaluation this offseason
 
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