SDQL Thread Week 13

[JROCK1966]

Here we go....gonna try again posting this stuff for a 3rd week. The first post is a review from last week for dogs, of less than 10pts, season is 2017 & 2016, worse QB efficiency than opponent, and both dog & favorite have negative turnover margins. After EMU & Coastal covered ATS last week, the results are now 32-6 ATS and 26-12 SU on the year. This trend, unfortunately, is not active this week.

 

[JROCK1966]

We do have a couple active teams when we remove QB out of the equation and enter worse defense in its place. This post is for dogs, of less than 10pts, season is 2017, worse total defense than opponent, and both dog & favorite have negative turnover margins. After EMU, Coastal, & Rice covered ATS last week, the results are now 16-2 ATS and 12-6 SU on the year. This trend is active on Vanderbilt and UConn on this Saturday. Good luck in what you decide Gents!

 

[JROCK1966]

Away dogs in Week 13, lost their previous game, line less than 10 pts, and both teams with negative turnover margins since 2010 are 11-13 SU (45.8%) and 18-6 ATS (75%). Active on Navy, UConn, Vandy, and Idaho this week.

 

[JROCK1966]

Same thing as in post #3 but I changed the line from 10pts. to 5pts. Records are 8-3 SU (72.7%) and 8-3 ATS (72.7%). Active on Navy and Vandy this week.

 

[JROCK1966]

Continuing my Week 13 queries, here's one for away favorites who won their last game, opponent lost theirs, both teams have positive turnover margins, fav has better QB efficiency and better defense. I wasn't too thrilled with the SU & ATS records but then I noticed the O/U record which is 5-1. Furthermore, if you tease it by -6 pts, you reach the Over at 6-0 (100%). This trend is active on two rivalry games this Saturday...Louisville @ Ky and VTech @ UVA.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Idaho deserves a special mention this week on a situation that should be important to them and have them sky-high. One I don't recall ever existing in college football in the history of the game.

It is the last game the school will play in the FBS. After this game they drop to the FCS.

Seems to me that should have them fired up, but I guess there is also a chance they will be distracted.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Continuing my Week 13 queries, here's one for away favorites who won their last game, opponent lost theirs, both teams have positive turnover margins, fav has better QB efficiency and better defense. I wasn't too thrilled with the SU & ATS records but then I noticed the O/U record which is 5-1. Furthermore, if you tease it by -6 pts, you reach the Over at 6-0 (100%). This trend is active on two rivalry games this Saturday...Louisville @ Ky and VTech @ UVA.

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[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the work...

Interesting angle Tahoe...

 

[JROCK1966]

Idaho deserves a special mention this week on a situation that should be important to them and have them sky-high. One I don't recall ever existing in college football in the history of the game.

It is the last game the school will play in the FBS. After this game they drop to the FCS.

Seems to me that should have them fired up, but I guess there is also a chance they will be distracted.

Can they keep up with that NMSt offense without Linehan?

 

[JROCK1966]

Continuing on with my Week 13 Queries...Away favorites with lines>10pts, better QB efficiency, better total defense, positive turnover margin & opponent has negative turnover margins have done really well since 2010. SU record of 12-0 and ATS record of 8-4 for 66.7%. This trend is active this week on Florida Atlantic, Georgia, Wyoming, Northwestern, and Wisky. This info, combined with your own methods, may help you make a decision on these games...Good Luck!

 

[JROCK1966]

Same query as above but both teams with negative TO margins...historically, in week 13, it has a 2-5 ATS record and is active on Miami (OH) and North Texas this week. My thoughts on this one are (taking into account the situation of the only two ATS wins) Central Michigan needed that win in 2012 for a 6th win and bowl eligibility. In 2015, Kansas State needed that win, and a win in their last game, for bowl eligibility which they ended up earning. This trend is active on Miami (OH) tonight and North Texas Saturday. Miami (OH) only has 4 wins and is mathematically eliminated from bowl contention. I have to wonder what their motivation is for tonight's game? North Texas already has a bowl lined up. Will they ease up off the pedal @ Rice??

 

[JROCK1966]

Managed to get hits on the Bama/Auburn, Clemson/USCjr, and ND/Stanford games. These are away favorites with worse QB efficiency, better total defense, and both teams have positive turnover margins. SU record of 10-5 and ATS record of 9-6 for 60%. Went back to check out the teams that lost (Temple, NCSt., Rutgers, Ark. St., La. Tech) and found they were middle of the pack games where the favorites did not have much to gain by a win and/or the favorite had already clinched the division title. Keep reading.....

 

[JROCK1966]

Set the line equal to and less than 5pts and really it becomes a toss-up for Bama and ND....recommend you research the situations for the teams that won and are below. 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.

 

[JROCK1966]

This one is really interesting and grabbed me the moment I saw the line. I have done so much SDQL the past few weeks to know a line > 10pts, for a favorite, normally have very high winning percentages. This one, granted the small sample size, does not. FWIW, I'll be on South Carolina ATS and ML on Saturday.

 

[JROCK1966]

Heading away for the holiday and will not be around so here are my SDQL pics for the week fwiw!! All Full Game unless otherwise noted....

Bowling Green +7 1st Half & +300ML 1st Half
Ball State +17.5
Navy +4.5 & +170ML
UVA/VTech Over 49.5
Ky/Louisville Over 68
Vandy -102 ML
Georgia -11
Northwestern -16.5
Rice +13
FAU -21.5
Wyoming -20
Wisconsin -17
Stanford +110 ML
South Carolina +14 & +425 ML
Idaho +8 & +270ML
Auburn +4.5 & +170ML
Texas Tech +10 & +315ML (Will add 1st Half on Gameday)
UConn +5.5 & +180ML
West Virginia 1st Half ATS & ML on Gameday


BOLTA!!


:abouttime: