Scarf 2019 Season Long Props and Week 0/1 CFB

scarf31

scarf31

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Hey gang,

Going to post plays this year and try to give some insight into why I push line shopping and having multiple outs so strongly. Just wanted to get a thread going here as I am in the process of making my initial plays for the year and will attempt to keep all of them in the first post, which I will continually edit to track everything. Less than 2 weeks away from kickoff and you can almost taste the beautiful scent of football season.

Also, I am going to try to give the book I play these at for transparency purposes or post my screenies of what I've played. If you've read my Bitcoin thread, I have a LOT of outs, so I'm going to try to take advantage of that.

Summary

Minnesota to Win the Big 10 (+5500) (0.5/27.5) - MyBookie
Penn State Under 8.5 Wins (-105) (2.1/2) - BetOnline
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins (-125) (2.34/1.87) - Nitrogen
Travis Etienne Over 1350 Rushing Yards (-115) (2.3/2) - BetOnline
Clemson/Georgia/Michigan to win the CFP v. The Field (+115) (1/1.15) - Sportsbook
Hawaii Over 5.5 Wins (-140) (1.4/1) - Bovada
Indiana Under 6.5 Wins (-124) (1.24/1) - Bookmaker
California to win Pac-12 (+5000) (0.5/25) - 5Dimes (Added 9/13)

Week 0 Plays

Florida 2H -6 (-115) (1.15/1) W

Week 1 Plays

Utah/BYU Under 47.5 (-110) (1.1/1) W
Clemson 1H -24.5 (+106) (1/1.06) W
Texas State Over 12.5 Points (-105) (1.05/1) L
Cincinnati 2H -1/2 (-115) (1.15/1) W
UMass +17 (-110) (1.1/1) L
Boise State +7 (-125) (1.25/1) W
Alabama 2H -14 (-120) (2.4/2) W
UC Davis +15.5 (-110) (1.1/1) W
SMU Pick (+100) (1/1) W
Georgia -23.5 (-110) (1.1/1) W
LT+19.5/Wyo +16.5/GaSo +27 (0.5/3) Parlay L
Auburn LIVE ML (-105) (1.05/1) W

Week 3 Lookahead - Will Include In Next Week's Thread

Oklahoma -13 @ UCLA (-120) (2.4/2) - BetOnline
 
Last edited:
So here we go...first play of the year...

Minnesota to Win the Big 10 (+5500) (0.5/27.5) - MyBookie

1565288333172.png
 
I am a STRONG believe in betting prices, not teams. To be 100% honest, I think this number is way, way off. Continuing in my honesty, I think that there is a snowball's chance in hell that Fleck wins a B1G Ship game in Indy...but at this price, he doesn't have to.

I'm just not ready to drink the Nebraska Kool Aid just yet as while Martinez is a stud, I still have questions about that defense. The Gophs arguably have the easiest schedule in the B1G West and it is a total crapshoot for who is going to come out of that side of the conference.

The bet here is basically a number that is insanely off in comparison to almost every other shop I saw.

If they make the Championship game here, I don't care what the money line is on the surely favored East champion, I'm going to have a solid arbitrage situation.

Could I have bet them to win the West? Sure, but I think playing it this way will give me better value if they get to Indianapolis. Nothing huge, but a play on a bad number, more than anything.
 
FYI, if you aren't familiar with MyBookie, they are one of CTG's newest sponsors...if you're interested in checking them out, click on the banner at the top of the page, or just follow this link.

I've used them quite a bit personally the last year as they often offer very fair prices and have an enormous initial deposit bonus. If anyone's interested, like I said, sign up with them through the link at the top of the page or you can follow this link. Well worth your time to find value selections like this. I couldn't find the Gophs less than 2500 anywhere else.

mybookie.ag

Premiere Sports Betting, Sportsbook Sign Up Bonus

Our goal is to provide our players with the widest range of products in the industry. It is our goal to provide a safe place to bet.
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More to come, guys and girls...
 
Interesting to see somebody not want to hand the BT West to Nebraska. BOL on this play and all my friend :) excited to follow your progress and always love to hear your reasoning.
 
Thanks, gang. Been going through some RSW and finally decided to pull the trigger on my first...

Penn State Under 8.5 Wins (-105) (2.1/2)

Honestly, I’m not even as down on Penn State as a lot of the publications and sources I’ve been reading. But considering the fact that there’s going to be a new QB at the helm, that Franklin “has his moments” in big games and that it will take 9 wins to beat me, I have to play this.

So let’s even be conservative and assume PSU wins it’s first 5 (which I don’t think is for sure a lock as I can see them tripping up vs. one of Pitt, @Mary or Purdue)...but let’s just give them 5-0 for the sake of the argument...not even going to question Indiana or Rutgers at home, so that gets them to 7.

Here’s where this wager lies...the four-game stretch after Purdue in the 5th game...

@Iowa
v. Michigan
@ Michigan State
@ Minnesota

And the final road game of the season is @Ohio St.

Can they go 2-2 in these road games? Or 1-3 in the roadies and beat Michigan at home? Just think this looks more like a 7-5 or 8-4 team than a 9-win squad...if they get big-time play at the QB position and a lack of boneheaded Franklin moments, they absolutely can get to 9...but I’ll pay to see it.
 
Looking at the PSU bet...

The game versus Michigan has a pretty strong rumor of being a NOON game now instead of at night. Fox is pushing for more marquee noon games instead of night time this year so you will see some interesting starting times for games that have differed from the past few years. That is a pretty strong rumor coming from both sides. A white-out at noon is MUCH different than UTL's.

The game the next week at Michigan State will be very difficult for them either way. I have that as a Sparty win.

The Ohio State game later in the year obviously could come down to if Fields is still in one piece.

Iowa is going to be a thorn to many teams this year. Two years running now with late heartbreak for the Hawks vs PSU

I'd say 1-3 in those four games as of now.
 
I like the PSU play. Having to roll with a different quarterback than they envisioned since Stevens hopped ship. Two NFL players are gone from an o-line that allowed pressure to McSorley 34% of the time. The wide receiving crew has major drop issues. In sum I think the offense will really hold the team back.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I like the PSU play. Having to roll with a different quarterback than they envisioned since Stevens hopped ship. Two NFL players are gone from an o-line that allowed pressure to McSorley 34% of the time. The wide receiving crew has major drop issues. In sum I think the offense will really hold the team back.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the QB situation and having to have the inexperienced kid win these road games is a huge problem for the Over side of this bet IMO.

This is a number I wouldn't bet at 8...but 1/2 win discrepancies are so big in thes CFB RSW market, that I jumped at a 2-unit play at the 8.5 and the minimal juice. Winning 9 games is damn hard.
 
Grabbed another one that was in the wheelhouse just now...

Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins (-125) (2.34/1.87)

37BE45FB-DBA8-4CA0-9826-DF21BAC55B4E.jpeg

Played this one at Nitrogen (click on the banner at the top of the page if you’ve never explored their site before).

Gundy didn’t win 7 in the regular season for only the 2nd time in the last 11 years as the HC at OSU. Last year’s team lost 4 games within 7 points and were a failed deuce away from potentially upsetting playoff-bound Oklahoma last year.

Enter new QB and new OC...Spencer Sanders looks to be the guy to start the year but former Rainbow QB Dru Brown isn’t the worst of backups if that’s the route Gundy goes.

The Pokes offense and the real wild card is going to be new offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson from Princeton. If you’ve never heard of this guy or seen some of the YouTube footage of the innovative pre-snap movement and use of misdirection, along with the ability to be multi-dimensional keeping the defense on its toes while not being predictable...

Go grab a chair and go watch some old Tigers’ clips. Putting this guy together with Gundy and matching them against the softness of B12 defenses should be fun to watch.

Asking for 7-5 is not too much at all and if the defense gives them anything, I don’t think 8 or 9 wins is out of the realm of possibility.
 
This one popped earlier today...

Travis Etienne Over 1350 Rushing Yards (-115) (2.3/2)

With the softness of the ACC schedule and Lawrence and those WR to play with for 12 full games...I just think this number is 100 yards too low. Firing away and obvious hoping for full health all year.
 
Like the value on this one as I think one team for sure is in the Ship...which gives me outs if I don’t like my position...

Clemson/Georgia/Michigan to win the CFP v. The Field (+115) (1/1.15)
 
Hawaii Over 5.5 Wins (-140) (1.4/1)

Healthy McDonald...a good coach, a manageable schedule and oh by the way, 13 games. Worth a play IMO.
 
Need to see Miami give me a full 60 minutes to believe...will pay to find out if they can...

Florida 2H -6 (-115) (1.15/1)
 
Utah/BYU Under 47.5 (-110) (1.1/1)

Holy War is a real thing...think most know I'm a Ute grad...worked in sports media in SLC for 5 years...I was at Utah when Whitt was a defensive coordinator for Ron McBride, who was there before Urban Meyer...bottom line is this guy gets this rivalry...he played for BYU for god's sake. This is real the disgust for these 2 teams.

Utes D Line is top notch...they're rotating 11 guys according to KW, which is stupid deep and filthy. But this is a danger opener and its on the road...and these 2 teams don't like each other...and Sitake is absolutely clueless and unworthy of being a head coach...he's only there because Bronko bailed on his alma mater and he is of the LDS faith...sorry but that is a major factor in BYU coach scouting...

Utes have every major advantage on paper here...but the BYU QB is gutty and I could easily see a backdoor cover...better way to play this is on the total as I'd be shocked if Utah play wide and open...and they should control the D line, which will make Wilson's life hell. Utah 23-17
 
what an interesting game. Utah looks real good this year and I like them to win the division. They also could at least create a discussion in terms of getting in the playoff, but of all their games this is one of their toughest and a very tricky spot. If Utah pulls it off, look out for them for the rest of the season
 
scarf31 said:
Grabbed another one that was in the wheelhouse just now...

Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins (-125) (2.34/1.87)

View attachment 42164

Played this one at Nitrogen (click on the banner at the top of the page if you’ve never explored their site before).

Gundy didn’t win 7 in the regular season for only the 2nd time in the last 11 years as the HC at OSU. Last year’s team lost 4 games within 7 points and were a failed deuce away from potentially upsetting playoff-bound Oklahoma last year.

Enter new QB and new OC...Spencer Sanders looks to be the guy to start the year but former Rainbow QB Dru Brown isn’t the worst of backups if that’s the route Gundy goes.

The Pokes offense and the real wild card is going to be new offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson from Princeton. If you’ve never heard of this guy or seen some of the YouTube footage of the innovative pre-snap movement and use of misdirection, along with the ability to be multi-dimensional keeping the defense on its toes while not being predictable...

Go grab a chair and go watch some old Tigers’ clips. Putting this guy together with Gundy and matching them against the softness of B12 defenses should be fun to watch.

Asking for 7-5 is not too much at all and if the defense gives them anything, I don’t think 8 or 9 wins is out of the realm of possibility.
Click to expand...
Reading between the lines in offseason, gundy likes this team some
 
RetroVK said:
Reading between the lines in offseason, gundy likes this team some
Click to expand...

One of the most underrated coaches in CFB over the last decade, @RetroVK. Think this team will be one of the most fun to watch in the country...the opener is must watch TV for me to see the looks they give...love innovative thinkers in this sport and the HC and OC are certainly in that category.
 
Like Dabo Swinney and Les Miles, Gundy was hired by Terry Don Phillips, former A.D. at OSU and later Clemson. That makes Phillips 3-3 in my book, but what else would you expect from a guy whose initials are TD?
 
That is a phenomenal little factoid, @M.W.

Always interesting to me to see how some of these guys (good or bad) are connected by other more (or less in this case) over/under the radar people in sports. Talk about an ability to judge coaching ability...almost ridiculous with those 3 for Okie State and Clemson in the span post-Ford...
 
Think this is the last of my adds...

Indiana Under 6.5 Wins (-124) (1.24/1)

Indiana has won 7 games once (not counting bowls) in the last 25 years. 2007. And in that year, they upset Iowa in Kinnick to get to 7-5.

For them to get to 7 this year they will not only need to win the games they are supposed to win, but they will also likely need to pull at least one or two games out of their hat and not slip up at all. Case of a play where I understand the optimism, but think this should be lined 6, and in that extra half-win buffer, I will make it a play.
 
scarf31 said:
That is a phenomenal little factoid, @M.W.

Always interesting to me to see how some of these guys (good or bad) are connected by other more (or less in this case) over/under the radar people in sports. Talk about an ability to judge coaching ability...almost ridiculous with those 3 for Okie State and Clemson in the span post-Ford...
Click to expand...
How you find a successful coach:

www.espn.com

Clemson fans need to thank Terry Don Phillips for this title

Eight years ago, Clemson's AD took a chance and hired an unknown receivers coach. He stuck with him through some tough times. On Monday, he was rewarded with the school's second national title.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

As an old defensive lineman who played under Frank Broyles at Arkansas, Phillips jokes that he never used to watch receivers in practice until Swinney showed up at Clemson.

"I just kept hearing about this energetic receivers coach we had and found myself wandering over to his side of the field," Phillips recalled. "I liked the way he coached his players, how he was tough on them, but was always teaching them and always there for them outside of football. It's not a facade with Dabo. He genuinely cares, and his players sense that."

So over time, Phillips began making mental notes. He noticed how the players were always milling around Swinney's office when they weren't on the practice field or in class.

"And not just receivers, but players from all positions," Phillips said. "Kids migrated to this particular coach, and that caught my eye."

With Swinney as the point man, the Tigers started signing high-profile recruits, including C.J. Spiller, whom they had struggled to even get to campus for visits in the past. After Swinney took over the Clemson summer camps, the number of players also began to explode.

"Everything he touched was successful," Phillips said. "There was just something about him, and when Tommy [Bowden] resigned, it was the perfect opportunity to let Dabo audition for the job the rest of that year."

Clemson fans should forever be grateful to Phillips for sticking to his script eight years ago, when he took a chance on a 38-year-old receivers coach, a guy who had never even been a coordinator.

That guy was Dabo Swinney, who was so under the radar at the time as a legitimate head-coaching candidate that Phillips admits some of the Clemson board of trustee members didn't even know who he was.

"It's a good thing that I had a president [Jim Barker] who trusted me and had a wonderful relationship with our trustees," Phillips said. "I'm pretty sure there were reservations, because on paper, Dabo didn't have the credentials that a lot of these other folks we talked to did. But Jim accepted my recommendation, stood behind it with the trustees, and the rest is history."
 
Clemson 1H -24.5 (+106) (1/1.06)

First game, totally new set up on both sides for GT...can see Dabo stepping off the gas 2nd half after game is out of control...28-3 isn’t too much to ask at half...
 
scarf31 said:
Clemson 1H -24.5 (+106) (1/1.06)

First game, totally new set up on both sides for GT...can see Dabo stepping off the gas 2nd half after game is out of control...28-3 isn’t too much to ask at half...
Click to expand...
In the past, I would look at a TT here hoping for a flat 27 but they have it painted 29 right now.

No thanks.

This seems like the safer route.
 
Cincinnati 2H -1/2 (-115) (1.15/1)

Remember what those Chip Kelly Oregon teams looked like going so fast? Well someone tell Chip because this team doesn’t even resemble the pace, skill or flow of an offense that has rhythm. This is a guy stealing a paycheck. This team doesn’t look well coached at all. Cincy moronic TO’s keeping this close.
 
Shout out to @CrimsonK for pointing this was still hanging out there on the market still...might leverage position but think I can easily hedge some off at a better number after watching the shit show Chip Kelly is vs. Lincoln Riley talk about top vs. bottom of CFB coaches right now...

Week 2 Oklahoma -13 @ UCLA (-120) (2.4/2) - BetOnline
 
UMass +17 (-110) (1.1/1)

If I had any balls I’d play the money line too...I need to Rutgers to prove to me they can blow anyone out with that roster.
 
Oh UMass...21-7 lead getting 17 and then soil your underpants the rest of the evening...meh.

Onto today...

Think this is too much of a correction for a team that was putrid last year.

Boise State +7 (-125) (1.25/1)

Like Briles a lot, but not convinced in Game 1 all of the woes that O line had last year go away. This became a play at 7, wouldn’t dive in lower than that.
 
scarf31 said:
Oh UMass...21-7 lead getting 17 and then soil your underpants the rest of the evening...meh.

Onto today...

Think this is too much of a correction for a team that was putrid last year.

Boise State +7 (-125) (1.25/1)

Like Briles a lot, but not convinced in Game 1 all of the woes that O line had last year go away. This became a play at 7, wouldn’t dive in lower than that.
Click to expand...
Boise has faced this scheme of Briles. I would say the talent at Baylor was better than what we will field offensively. Noles D SHOULD be strong, as there are a number of blue chip type players on that side of the ball. I say SHOULD, b/c we FSU had talent last year and squandered a season away with it. With the departure of Burns, the only player that seemed to give a damn, Nole defense will not have the same luxury of a player to count on. Someone is going to have to step up to fill that void. D backfield is loaded. They will not make it easy on the fresh QB today. Not playing, but until I see improvement, I think you are correct with this pick. GL, Scarf. Hoping for a Nole victory, but I am okay with you covering.
 
scarf31 said:
Oh UMass...21-7 lead getting 17 and then soil your underpants the rest of the evening...meh.

Onto today...

Think this is too much of a correction for a team that was putrid last year.

Boise State +7 (-125) (1.25/1)

Like Briles a lot, but not convinced in Game 1 all of the woes that O line had last year go away. This became a play at 7, wouldn’t dive in lower than that.
Click to expand...

LFG
 
Alabama 2H -14 (-120) (2.4/2)

I even grabbed some smaller at 14.5 and 15, but for record purposes -14 was my biggest hit.
 
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