CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Small winner last week, and another small winner Thursday. Looks like TCU was the slightly better outfit, but like its done most of the year, Utah finds a way to make big plays in clutch situations. Say what you want to, but at some point that stops being accidental.
Onto today...
Not sure how they can just throw up Rutgers two touchdowns over anyone. The Raiders threw all over a hapless Pitt defense two weeks back but that's the first signs of life that the RU offense has shown all season. Meanwhile, the Orange have quietly improved each week the last month, culminated by a SU win again over Louisville last week. I'll ride the Orange train again in a game I made only 8.
The play: Cuse +14 for a big bet.
The Big 10's got me all fucked up right now. No clue about half of the ratings of those teams.
Going with a lukewarm recommendation on Georgia Tech today.
Here's the thing: North Carolina has trailed in all six of its wins this season. In three of those games, the Tar Heels have come back from deficits of 10 points or more. That won't happen today against a well-coached Jacket team that starts 16 of 22 freshman or sophomores - at this point in the year, those guys are improving almost weekly.
The Jackets also are moving Cox to B-back (from A-back) to give Dwyer a break. That move is do-able partly because of increased depth at the A-back spot. Losing all-ACC left tackle Gardner (48 straight starts in 4 years) hurts immensely in a gap-responsible O-line and it won't be easy to just plug in someone. But I still like GT to win it on the field.
The play: GT plus 4 for a medium bet.
Western Michigan catches Illinois in the middle of a Iowa/Ohio State sammich. The Illini were lucky to win last week. The Broncos are not in a bad spot here and won't be intimidated; they beat Iowa on the road in November last year. That Illinois desperately needed a 12th game is the only reason they're in Motown. Illinois has some physical advantages. Not enough, though, if the Illini overlook Western.
The play: Western plus 8 for a small bet.
I made Oklahoma State and Texas Tech a PICK with the home field factored in, but I'm not sure how good my rating on Tech is. I had the Red Raiders as a 4-point dog last week and despite the score inside the last minute, they were the far superior team for most of the evening. I will certainly watch the first half of this one, and I have these two teams in the top 5 of my national power ratings, making this a very entertaining matchup. Can this be the year that Tech finally climbs over the hump? Even if they win tonight, they travel to Norman next week... though looking at the OU defense, Harrell will likely have a much easier time of it next weekend than he will tonight.
No bet. I might get involved at halftime.
Vandy in a great situation, but they've been outgained in just about every game this year and Florida is just much more talented. Still, with 24 points in my pocket at home, I'll bite.
The play: Vandy plus 24 for a medium bet.
I'm not sure where South Carolina can get off laying 13 to anyone. Arkansas has improved by the week and the good win over Tulsa last week is going to be like a walk in the park when they face the pedestrian USC offense today. This goes to the wire.
The play: Arkansas plus 13 for a big bet.
Kentucky outclassed by Jorja, but I'm not too enthusiastic about laying it with likely deflated Dawgs, who are now playing for secondary bowl. Too bad as well, as I thought that last week's game was NOT indicitive of how close the game was/shoulda been. UGA got hosed by the whistle a few times, made a few mental mistakes, a couple of turnovers, and all of a sudden Moreno becomes a non-factor. I lowered Jorja's rating less than most, and Florida's I raised fewer than most - hence why I like Vandy and UGA today. No bet on mentally-challenged Dawgs today, though, especially with Grandpa Richie continuing to find ways to win games without an offense.
BG vastly out-talents Ohio U. A little nervous about laying points on the road in this league, especially to solidly-coached Bobcats. Inexcusable home losses to Eastern Michigan and Miami O also make me wary of laying it - but this is a revenger for the Falcons... OU ruined BG's title chances last year when a series of turnovers led to the Bobcats' 38-27 win in 2007. I'll keep it small, though - the last time BG faced a run-around QB, it did not turn out well. Kent's Julian Edelman rushed for a career-high 170 yards against the Falcons
The play: BG -2.5 for a small bet.
I don't see any way that Ayyunem is ever going to stop Oklahoma. Ever. They will play hard but the talent gap is too much to overcome.
The play: Oklahoma -25 for a medium bet. The line is now 27 most spots. I would advocate a small to medium bet at anything less than 28.
I'm betting against the steam on a total - Army has struggled to score all year, but Rice's defense could be just what they need today. The Owls have lost three senior starters to season-ending injuries. The senior-laden offense should give Army all sorts of trouble, as that defense has been great for a month but against all pedestrian offenses.
The play: OVER 54 for a medium bet in Houston.
Florida State I made 7 today against Clemson. This will be the first time Bobby can get down to business and try to win the game rather than "not" trying to lose it (to save his son's job?) in years. Big advantage. Also note Noles have been resilient off a loss this season and
The key to the game will be when FSU has the ball - Christian Ponder should have time to throw. FSU quarterbacks were sacked five times last week, and 12 times in the last three games. But the Clemson defensive line simply has not been able to pressure QBs at all this season. Through eight games, the Tigers have just seven total sacks and no individual has more than one! Somehow, Clemson is yielding just 17 ppg. But the Nole receivers should work their way open with the time Ponder is expected to have.
Despite the talents of both Spiller and Davis, Clemson ranks just eighth in the ACC in rushing yards per game. If Florida State can get pressure on Harper, it should have a chance to create some turnovers; the Tigers are 111th in the nation in turnover margin. Florida State is far and away the best team in the nation in third-down conversion defense and still ranks fifth in the country in total defense.
Bobby Bowden celebrates his 79th birthday in style.
The play: Florida State -3.5 -106 for a big bet.
Not sure how Nebraska can lay points to Kansas. I remember last year's game; Kansas would still be scoring if they were playing. I think the final tally was 76; it might as well have been 176. There's not that much of a dropoff in the Jayhawk offense. The precipitous drop in the total has me confused; despite the possible weather deal I am gambling that the Jayhawks are able to get at least half of what they got last year. Can't lose both that way!
The play: Kansas plus 2 and ML medium and OVER 61 medium.
I laid 7 with Penn State the other day for a pretty big bet (made it 10)... The JoePa's continue to cover every week and to try to beat them now with any of these raggity big-10 teams would be foolish. Yes, Greene is a stud RB and the Hawkeyes are far better than their record shows. But I'll bank on at least a touchdown win in what is the last major test before the BCS Title game for PSU.
The play: PSU -7 for a big bet. I would not advocate playing it at 7.5 - maybe for a medium bet all the way to 9.5...
How can Tennessee lay 27 to anyone?
The play: Wyoming plus 27 for a medium bet.
Leaning LSU today in the big battle in the Bayou but passing for now. That looks like a game where LSU's defense is finally NOT overmatched by an offensive foe - and the Bama defense should be able to slow LSU as well. UNDER looks good but I missed the initial number and won't go under anything less than 48. I expect it to go up. I am drowned to Alabama $$$ here at the shop, even laying 3.5... that's fine with me.
Constant rain today at Autzen coupled with two fairly stout defenses makes it easy for me to go UNDER today in Eugene.
The play: UNDER 56.5 at Oregon.
Washington can't score - there's going to be a lot of rain there - and the total has gone up. I'll bite.
The play: UNDER 51 in Seattle.
New Mexico State is in the tank. The Bows are still fighting
After leaving Hawaii after the 1999 season, Rainbow HC McMackin spent three years in west Texas coaching with Mike Leach as D-Coordinator at Texas Tech. That offense is the same one Mumme runs at NMSU, so he should have UH prepared for it. UH QB Alexander has completed 62 percent of his passes and tossed three touchdowns and no interceptions since the last series of the Boise State game and will start again. The Rainbows have won all four meetings vs. NMSU.
The play: Hawaii -3.5 for a small bet.
Here goes Houston trying to lay three-plus scores again. The Cougars have averaged just 8.5 points in the first half of their last six games. I might hedge out at halftime, but that spells trouble against a Bob Toledo-coached team, even one banged up like this one.
The play: Tulane plus 16.5 for a medium bet.
Can Southern Miss suddenly start laying three after winning one game against a shit team last week? I say no - not in Orlando.
The play: Central Florida ML and plus 3 for a medium bet.
Texas in a tough spot today - they usually own Baylor (though there have been exceptions; I remember three or four years ago when Baylor was absolutely the right side but an avalanche of turnovers did them in and they ended up not holding on to get the cash as big dog).... The Bears have Briles and the electric QB and will not just lay down for the Horns. I expect a flat start and a close game for at least a half.
The play: Baylor plus 28 for a medium bet.
I took a flier on West Virginia. I will note Pike's success last week and Kelly's ATS success since his Mount Pleasant days, the Mountaineer defense should provide a lot of resistance (only yielding 16 ppg) and WV has quietly won five straight while positioning itself atop the Big Least. At less than a touchdown, there's value.
The play: WV -6.5 -105 for a medium bet.
I know USC is pretty solid, but can it really lay more than three touchdowns to the only other team in the Pac-1 (yes, I said 1, not 10) with a pulse? USC's defense is great, granted. But Cal's offense actually is two-dimensional and DC Gregory is very familiar with the Trojan offense; he's helped hold them to 24 and 23 points the last two years - that won't do it today.
The play: Cal plus 22.5 for a medium bet.
Florida Atlantic hasn't laid DDs very often, but North Texas still blows, despite what happened in Bowling Green last week (deceiving final, though they did deserve to win).
The play: FAU -22 for a small bet.
Missed the value on Arky State/FIU UNDER, so passing.
Can Middle really lay 4.5 to Weatherbie's Injuns? Even without a healthy Lancaster, me thinks not. I made this game a flat pick even with the HFA so taking points looks to be the only way to go - especially since Stockstill continues to play QB Craddock over the more electric Dasher rot on the bench.
The play: UL-Monroe plus 4.5 for a medium bet.
GL today fellas; I'll try to pop in with halftime stuff....
:cheers:
Onto today...
Not sure how they can just throw up Rutgers two touchdowns over anyone. The Raiders threw all over a hapless Pitt defense two weeks back but that's the first signs of life that the RU offense has shown all season. Meanwhile, the Orange have quietly improved each week the last month, culminated by a SU win again over Louisville last week. I'll ride the Orange train again in a game I made only 8.
The play: Cuse +14 for a big bet.
The Big 10's got me all fucked up right now. No clue about half of the ratings of those teams.
Going with a lukewarm recommendation on Georgia Tech today.
Here's the thing: North Carolina has trailed in all six of its wins this season. In three of those games, the Tar Heels have come back from deficits of 10 points or more. That won't happen today against a well-coached Jacket team that starts 16 of 22 freshman or sophomores - at this point in the year, those guys are improving almost weekly.
The Jackets also are moving Cox to B-back (from A-back) to give Dwyer a break. That move is do-able partly because of increased depth at the A-back spot. Losing all-ACC left tackle Gardner (48 straight starts in 4 years) hurts immensely in a gap-responsible O-line and it won't be easy to just plug in someone. But I still like GT to win it on the field.
The play: GT plus 4 for a medium bet.
Western Michigan catches Illinois in the middle of a Iowa/Ohio State sammich. The Illini were lucky to win last week. The Broncos are not in a bad spot here and won't be intimidated; they beat Iowa on the road in November last year. That Illinois desperately needed a 12th game is the only reason they're in Motown. Illinois has some physical advantages. Not enough, though, if the Illini overlook Western.
The play: Western plus 8 for a small bet.
I made Oklahoma State and Texas Tech a PICK with the home field factored in, but I'm not sure how good my rating on Tech is. I had the Red Raiders as a 4-point dog last week and despite the score inside the last minute, they were the far superior team for most of the evening. I will certainly watch the first half of this one, and I have these two teams in the top 5 of my national power ratings, making this a very entertaining matchup. Can this be the year that Tech finally climbs over the hump? Even if they win tonight, they travel to Norman next week... though looking at the OU defense, Harrell will likely have a much easier time of it next weekend than he will tonight.
No bet. I might get involved at halftime.
Vandy in a great situation, but they've been outgained in just about every game this year and Florida is just much more talented. Still, with 24 points in my pocket at home, I'll bite.
The play: Vandy plus 24 for a medium bet.
I'm not sure where South Carolina can get off laying 13 to anyone. Arkansas has improved by the week and the good win over Tulsa last week is going to be like a walk in the park when they face the pedestrian USC offense today. This goes to the wire.
The play: Arkansas plus 13 for a big bet.
Kentucky outclassed by Jorja, but I'm not too enthusiastic about laying it with likely deflated Dawgs, who are now playing for secondary bowl. Too bad as well, as I thought that last week's game was NOT indicitive of how close the game was/shoulda been. UGA got hosed by the whistle a few times, made a few mental mistakes, a couple of turnovers, and all of a sudden Moreno becomes a non-factor. I lowered Jorja's rating less than most, and Florida's I raised fewer than most - hence why I like Vandy and UGA today. No bet on mentally-challenged Dawgs today, though, especially with Grandpa Richie continuing to find ways to win games without an offense.
BG vastly out-talents Ohio U. A little nervous about laying points on the road in this league, especially to solidly-coached Bobcats. Inexcusable home losses to Eastern Michigan and Miami O also make me wary of laying it - but this is a revenger for the Falcons... OU ruined BG's title chances last year when a series of turnovers led to the Bobcats' 38-27 win in 2007. I'll keep it small, though - the last time BG faced a run-around QB, it did not turn out well. Kent's Julian Edelman rushed for a career-high 170 yards against the Falcons
The play: BG -2.5 for a small bet.
I don't see any way that Ayyunem is ever going to stop Oklahoma. Ever. They will play hard but the talent gap is too much to overcome.
The play: Oklahoma -25 for a medium bet. The line is now 27 most spots. I would advocate a small to medium bet at anything less than 28.
I'm betting against the steam on a total - Army has struggled to score all year, but Rice's defense could be just what they need today. The Owls have lost three senior starters to season-ending injuries. The senior-laden offense should give Army all sorts of trouble, as that defense has been great for a month but against all pedestrian offenses.
The play: OVER 54 for a medium bet in Houston.
Florida State I made 7 today against Clemson. This will be the first time Bobby can get down to business and try to win the game rather than "not" trying to lose it (to save his son's job?) in years. Big advantage. Also note Noles have been resilient off a loss this season and
The key to the game will be when FSU has the ball - Christian Ponder should have time to throw. FSU quarterbacks were sacked five times last week, and 12 times in the last three games. But the Clemson defensive line simply has not been able to pressure QBs at all this season. Through eight games, the Tigers have just seven total sacks and no individual has more than one! Somehow, Clemson is yielding just 17 ppg. But the Nole receivers should work their way open with the time Ponder is expected to have.
Despite the talents of both Spiller and Davis, Clemson ranks just eighth in the ACC in rushing yards per game. If Florida State can get pressure on Harper, it should have a chance to create some turnovers; the Tigers are 111th in the nation in turnover margin. Florida State is far and away the best team in the nation in third-down conversion defense and still ranks fifth in the country in total defense.
Bobby Bowden celebrates his 79th birthday in style.
The play: Florida State -3.5 -106 for a big bet.
Not sure how Nebraska can lay points to Kansas. I remember last year's game; Kansas would still be scoring if they were playing. I think the final tally was 76; it might as well have been 176. There's not that much of a dropoff in the Jayhawk offense. The precipitous drop in the total has me confused; despite the possible weather deal I am gambling that the Jayhawks are able to get at least half of what they got last year. Can't lose both that way!
The play: Kansas plus 2 and ML medium and OVER 61 medium.
I laid 7 with Penn State the other day for a pretty big bet (made it 10)... The JoePa's continue to cover every week and to try to beat them now with any of these raggity big-10 teams would be foolish. Yes, Greene is a stud RB and the Hawkeyes are far better than their record shows. But I'll bank on at least a touchdown win in what is the last major test before the BCS Title game for PSU.
The play: PSU -7 for a big bet. I would not advocate playing it at 7.5 - maybe for a medium bet all the way to 9.5...
How can Tennessee lay 27 to anyone?
The play: Wyoming plus 27 for a medium bet.
Leaning LSU today in the big battle in the Bayou but passing for now. That looks like a game where LSU's defense is finally NOT overmatched by an offensive foe - and the Bama defense should be able to slow LSU as well. UNDER looks good but I missed the initial number and won't go under anything less than 48. I expect it to go up. I am drowned to Alabama $$$ here at the shop, even laying 3.5... that's fine with me.
Constant rain today at Autzen coupled with two fairly stout defenses makes it easy for me to go UNDER today in Eugene.
The play: UNDER 56.5 at Oregon.
Washington can't score - there's going to be a lot of rain there - and the total has gone up. I'll bite.
The play: UNDER 51 in Seattle.
New Mexico State is in the tank. The Bows are still fighting
After leaving Hawaii after the 1999 season, Rainbow HC McMackin spent three years in west Texas coaching with Mike Leach as D-Coordinator at Texas Tech. That offense is the same one Mumme runs at NMSU, so he should have UH prepared for it. UH QB Alexander has completed 62 percent of his passes and tossed three touchdowns and no interceptions since the last series of the Boise State game and will start again. The Rainbows have won all four meetings vs. NMSU.
The play: Hawaii -3.5 for a small bet.
Here goes Houston trying to lay three-plus scores again. The Cougars have averaged just 8.5 points in the first half of their last six games. I might hedge out at halftime, but that spells trouble against a Bob Toledo-coached team, even one banged up like this one.
The play: Tulane plus 16.5 for a medium bet.
Can Southern Miss suddenly start laying three after winning one game against a shit team last week? I say no - not in Orlando.
The play: Central Florida ML and plus 3 for a medium bet.
Texas in a tough spot today - they usually own Baylor (though there have been exceptions; I remember three or four years ago when Baylor was absolutely the right side but an avalanche of turnovers did them in and they ended up not holding on to get the cash as big dog).... The Bears have Briles and the electric QB and will not just lay down for the Horns. I expect a flat start and a close game for at least a half.
The play: Baylor plus 28 for a medium bet.
I took a flier on West Virginia. I will note Pike's success last week and Kelly's ATS success since his Mount Pleasant days, the Mountaineer defense should provide a lot of resistance (only yielding 16 ppg) and WV has quietly won five straight while positioning itself atop the Big Least. At less than a touchdown, there's value.
The play: WV -6.5 -105 for a medium bet.
I know USC is pretty solid, but can it really lay more than three touchdowns to the only other team in the Pac-1 (yes, I said 1, not 10) with a pulse? USC's defense is great, granted. But Cal's offense actually is two-dimensional and DC Gregory is very familiar with the Trojan offense; he's helped hold them to 24 and 23 points the last two years - that won't do it today.
The play: Cal plus 22.5 for a medium bet.
Florida Atlantic hasn't laid DDs very often, but North Texas still blows, despite what happened in Bowling Green last week (deceiving final, though they did deserve to win).
The play: FAU -22 for a small bet.
Missed the value on Arky State/FIU UNDER, so passing.
Can Middle really lay 4.5 to Weatherbie's Injuns? Even without a healthy Lancaster, me thinks not. I made this game a flat pick even with the HFA so taking points looks to be the only way to go - especially since Stockstill continues to play QB Craddock over the more electric Dasher rot on the bench.
The play: UL-Monroe plus 4.5 for a medium bet.
GL today fellas; I'll try to pop in with halftime stuff....
:cheers:
