CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Took a flier on Central Florida in Chestnut Hill. Don't think the UCF offense can generate a ton of offense but the Eagles and new QB Crane (only 248 yards passing in two games) is a significant dropoff from their signal caller last year. The experienced UCF defense and the tech edges (UCF 5-1 last six as a dog, BC 4-9 last 13 laying it) have me on the dog.
The play: UCF +10.5 medium
Vandy might not be able to win in Oxford, but I'm not trying to bet against Nickson and Hawkins. 'Dores are 9-3 last 12 as an SEC dog and has beaten Ole Miss twice in a row. Sneed is mistake-prone enough that one of his mistakes could well lead to a score the other way. Vandy turnover margin is certainly worth noting - it's consistent thus far despite them being outgained by a significant amount.
The play: Vandy +7 small
LSU/Auburn... Corso nailed it. First one to 10 wins - defenses far exceed offenses thus far. Total looks way high.
The play: UNDER 38 for a medium bet.
I'm a little concerned that Bama has won exactly one road game by more than a touchdown since 2005 but the Tide look to be rolling again after the sputter against Tulane's better-than-advertised defense. Arkansas could easily be 0-2 rather than 2-0 and even the bye and Petrino's coaching expertise can't mask the talent disparity here. With Hogs being unbeaten, the line appears 2-3 points lower than it should be.
The play: Bama -8.5 even for a medium bet.
Notre Dame's fraudulent pair of South Bend wins will rear its ugly head today as the defense puts its head on the swivel trying to stop bullish MSU RB Ringer. Sparty seems to be gathering steam and if they can throw it a little bit, they should be able to name the score. Sparty coming off a shutout of FAU (weather-aided) but who's to say that the Owl offense isn't further advanced at this point than ND?
The play: MSU -8.5 for a medium bet.
Maryland's schizophrenia should continue today as Eastern Michigan has the offensive weaponry to trade punches, even without starting QB Schmitt (backup might be better?).
THe play: Eastern Michigan +21.5 for a small bet.
East Carolina physically outclasses N.C. State - those who had the Wolfpack last week at a good price were fortunate to escape after the early 7-0 lead on a defensive touchdown. The Pirates were in a potentially flat spot last week in a conference opener after beating two top-25 teams to open up. No so this week, as they travel less than 100 miles to Raleigh to meet another BCS foe. NC State's defense might be able to contain Pinckney for awhile, but the woeful Wolfpack offense has scored just 3 points in its last 13 quarters against I-A competition.
The play: ECU -7 for a big bet.
Fresno in a big flat spot travelling to Toledo after the loss to Wisconsin last week. The win against Rutgers has lost some luster after seeing the Scarlet Knights play a couple of times. Toledo ran into Zona buzzsaw in week one but steadied the ship last week and now look to extract some revenge for last year's laugher that was aided by defensive and special teams scores for the Bulldogs. Rockets win this one outright.
The play: Toledo plus 7 for a medium bet. I will take 7.5 for more (to equal a big bet) if I see it - I missed it the first time around.
Not sure where people are interested in betting Iowa State tonight. Sure, the 'Clones have slick new coach Chizik's system slowly being implemented and that defense will keep them competitive. But I really liked UNLV's resolve last week in Tempe. Sanford was running out of time in Vegas and after watching him interview after their win last week, he was nearly in tears because he knew how significant that win was. There are two ways to go but I'd like to think that bruising Summers and improving Clayton (see true frosh receiver Payne, who had the big catch to tie it last week) have enough firepower to draw off late.
The play: UNLV -2 for a medium bet.
Injury-riddled Jose was blasted by Stanford 37-0 last year and did little right. But those who pay attention to what's going on know that this is not your father's (or even older brother's) Spartans. Tricky Dick's boys starting to play with confidence after outplaying Nebraska for a good part of the game and then dismantling San Diego State last week. Linesmakers have not adjusted, but these two teams are very very similar at this point. Tree could be a bit banged up after these Pac-10 wars early. With Cal transfer QB Reed calling the shots and Yonus Davis getting things done in the trenches, that offense should be able to keep up with an inconsistent Stanford unit. I line up with Doctor Bob for the first time all year! (and considering that he lives in the Bay area, that's not a bad thing in this spot, in my opinion)...
The play: San Jose State plus 8 for a medium bet.
Other leans are Southern Miss (will lay 7 flat) and Florida Atlantic (will take plus 7 flat if I see it).
Good luck all!
:shake:
The play: UCF +10.5 medium
Vandy might not be able to win in Oxford, but I'm not trying to bet against Nickson and Hawkins. 'Dores are 9-3 last 12 as an SEC dog and has beaten Ole Miss twice in a row. Sneed is mistake-prone enough that one of his mistakes could well lead to a score the other way. Vandy turnover margin is certainly worth noting - it's consistent thus far despite them being outgained by a significant amount.
The play: Vandy +7 small
LSU/Auburn... Corso nailed it. First one to 10 wins - defenses far exceed offenses thus far. Total looks way high.
The play: UNDER 38 for a medium bet.
I'm a little concerned that Bama has won exactly one road game by more than a touchdown since 2005 but the Tide look to be rolling again after the sputter against Tulane's better-than-advertised defense. Arkansas could easily be 0-2 rather than 2-0 and even the bye and Petrino's coaching expertise can't mask the talent disparity here. With Hogs being unbeaten, the line appears 2-3 points lower than it should be.
The play: Bama -8.5 even for a medium bet.
Notre Dame's fraudulent pair of South Bend wins will rear its ugly head today as the defense puts its head on the swivel trying to stop bullish MSU RB Ringer. Sparty seems to be gathering steam and if they can throw it a little bit, they should be able to name the score. Sparty coming off a shutout of FAU (weather-aided) but who's to say that the Owl offense isn't further advanced at this point than ND?
The play: MSU -8.5 for a medium bet.
Maryland's schizophrenia should continue today as Eastern Michigan has the offensive weaponry to trade punches, even without starting QB Schmitt (backup might be better?).
THe play: Eastern Michigan +21.5 for a small bet.
East Carolina physically outclasses N.C. State - those who had the Wolfpack last week at a good price were fortunate to escape after the early 7-0 lead on a defensive touchdown. The Pirates were in a potentially flat spot last week in a conference opener after beating two top-25 teams to open up. No so this week, as they travel less than 100 miles to Raleigh to meet another BCS foe. NC State's defense might be able to contain Pinckney for awhile, but the woeful Wolfpack offense has scored just 3 points in its last 13 quarters against I-A competition.
The play: ECU -7 for a big bet.
Fresno in a big flat spot travelling to Toledo after the loss to Wisconsin last week. The win against Rutgers has lost some luster after seeing the Scarlet Knights play a couple of times. Toledo ran into Zona buzzsaw in week one but steadied the ship last week and now look to extract some revenge for last year's laugher that was aided by defensive and special teams scores for the Bulldogs. Rockets win this one outright.
The play: Toledo plus 7 for a medium bet. I will take 7.5 for more (to equal a big bet) if I see it - I missed it the first time around.
Not sure where people are interested in betting Iowa State tonight. Sure, the 'Clones have slick new coach Chizik's system slowly being implemented and that defense will keep them competitive. But I really liked UNLV's resolve last week in Tempe. Sanford was running out of time in Vegas and after watching him interview after their win last week, he was nearly in tears because he knew how significant that win was. There are two ways to go but I'd like to think that bruising Summers and improving Clayton (see true frosh receiver Payne, who had the big catch to tie it last week) have enough firepower to draw off late.
The play: UNLV -2 for a medium bet.
Injury-riddled Jose was blasted by Stanford 37-0 last year and did little right. But those who pay attention to what's going on know that this is not your father's (or even older brother's) Spartans. Tricky Dick's boys starting to play with confidence after outplaying Nebraska for a good part of the game and then dismantling San Diego State last week. Linesmakers have not adjusted, but these two teams are very very similar at this point. Tree could be a bit banged up after these Pac-10 wars early. With Cal transfer QB Reed calling the shots and Yonus Davis getting things done in the trenches, that offense should be able to keep up with an inconsistent Stanford unit. I line up with Doctor Bob for the first time all year! (and considering that he lives in the Bay area, that's not a bad thing in this spot, in my opinion)...
The play: San Jose State plus 8 for a medium bet.
Other leans are Southern Miss (will lay 7 flat) and Florida Atlantic (will take plus 7 flat if I see it).
Good luck all!
:shake:
