Saturday's CFB...

[CollegeKingRex]

OK, so I ain't been around too much as of late, and I apologize for that. Had some issues at the shop but the good news is that I was able to spend some more time looking at the card.

Another successful week last time out, highlighted by Minnesota's near-miss in a game they dominated (for the most part) against Wisconsin...

Some notes about this week's games... by conference...

Rivalries...

Georgia has beaten Jorja Tech 6 straight.

Clemson is 8-2 in the last 10 against USC. The 31-28 USC win last year was the first time each team scored 28 in the series since 1996.

Florida has beaten FSU three straight.


SEC -

The LSU/Arkansas game has been each team's season finale every year since the Hogs joined the league in 1992.

Aubbie has beaten Bammer five straight. The Tide have not scored a first quarter touchdown in the series since 1996!

Missy State had 114 more yards last year than Ole Piss, yet lost 20-17. Big revenger here?

Tennessee has beaten UK 22 straight times. That's the longest active streak of any annual series now that Navy won in South Bend earlier this season.

Big 12

A&M beat Texas 12-7 last season catching 13.

Nebraska beat Colorado 37-14. The Buffs are just 3-19-1 since 1962 against the Cornshitters at home.

The Kansas/Mizzou game has been decided by double-digits in 12 of the last 14 meetings.

ACC

BC hasn't beaten Miami since 1984, when Flute's pass to Phelan was caught; perhaps the biggest hail mary (Kordell to Westbrook perhaps notwithstanding) in CFB history. BC also is playing with big revenge, as Miami rallied to win Coker's last game and deny the Eagles a trip to Jacksonville.

Virginia had just 112 yards of offense vs. VT last season.

Duke/UNC played to a 45-44 thriller last season. The Heels have won every game since 1990 (except in 2003).

Maryland led 20-0 last season against NC State despite being outfirstdowned and yarded (two-zero turnover edge). The Terps are 5-2 last seven in the series but the average margin of win is just four points.

Sun Belt

U-La-La's loss to Monroe last season denied the Cajuns a probable bowl bid.

C-USA

This is UTEP's first game ever in the state of Florida. The Miners have lost all of the last 18 season finales!!!

Tulsa HC Graham was the Rice coach last year. He signed a contract extention in Houston, then left to take Kragthorpe's job the NEXT DAY.

Bradshaw had 242 yards rushing against UAB last season in the Thundering Turd's 31-24 win in B-Ham (+6).

Pac-10

Wazzou has lost seven of nine against Washington. Amazingly, the Cougs have led or been tied at the half in each of the last five years. They had yardage, first down and TO edges last season and somehow still lost.

Stanford has lost 5 straight to Cal for the first time since 1919-1923!

Big East

UConn had just 210 yards against West Virginia last season.

South Florida is 1-5 when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder.

Cuse had just 79 yards of offense against Cincy last season after 3 quarters.

WAC

Boise has beaten Hawaii six straight times. The teams have averaged 79 ppg in the last five years. Hawaii had 556-430 yard edge two years ago in Honolulu but lost because Boise scored three TD's on returns.

Reno has won five straight against Jose State - the average margin of victory is 16 ppg.

Idaho was down 21-0 before storming back to win 41-21 last year.

MAC

Toledo is 3-0 last 3 and 9-3 last 12 vs. BG. But the visitor is just 1-8 in the last 9 of the series.

Northern has beaten Ball 7 of the last 8. But BSU has won 10 of 13 in DeKalb. More telling, the teams have averaged 65 ppg in the last six years.

Kent was up 14-0 vs. UB on the road last season but five turnovers did them in, as the Bulls crushed, 41-14. Starks had 162 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, and the Bulls have won two straight in the series.

McRae had 180 yards rushing against Miami last season but OU is just 3-14 since 1990 against Miami.

MWC

BYU outscored Utah 19-7 in the fourth quarter last season and capped the rally with an 11-yard TD pass as time expired. Nine of 10 have been decided by seven points or less in the series, and Utah had won four in a row before last year. Utah HC played backer at BYU from 78-81.

Colly State has won 10 of 14 from Wyoming but the Pokes blanked CSU 24-0 last season; the first shutout in the long-running series since 1959!

San Diego State had just 87 total yards last season in a 52-0 pasting at the hands of TCU.


:cheers:

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Turnover disparities last week...

Georgia Tech was quite impressive, winning by two (no cover) despite having three more turnovers than UNC.

Arkansas had +5 vs. Messy State in a narrow cover.

Houston had -2 turnovers against Marshall and won by just seven. Turnovers have been a constant problem for the Kolb-less Cougar attack this season.

Washington had +3 vs. Cal and won by 14.

LSU had +4 against Ole Miss but only won by 17 in a hard-fought game.

Jorja had -3 turnovers against Kentucky yet still got the cash as both defenses played outstanding.

Mizzou had +3 to's and that was a big part of the 17 point win.

Va. Tech had +3 turnovers against Miami in 30-point rout.

Oregon State had a whopping +8 turnover advantage in the 35-point stomping of the inconsistent Cougs of Wazzou.

U-La-Mo had +4 turnovers in its outright upset in Tuscaloosa.

 

[J Galt]

'an_horse'

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Can't wait to see what you're playing Rex, GL this week.:cheers:

 

[Jasper11]

Can't wait to see what you're playing Rex, GL this week.:cheers:

I wouldn't wait much longer if I was you. He has indicated that he has more important things to do and I respect that. I am thankful for the helpful pics in previous weeks but it looks like we must venture on without Rexy.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Another interesting Saturday in the final full card of the season.
<O</O
South Florida laying a hefty tariff against a Pitt team that has made me good cash as a dog all season. Will pass, however, as Bulls own the more formidable offensive weapons.
<O</O
West Virginia now owns inside track to play for all the marbles with two more wins. Expect convincing rout of UConn team that has overachieved since day 1. Spread suggests rout and I'll buy.
<O</O
The play: Mounties -19 for a medium bet.
<O</O
Central Florida and UTEP a story of two teams going in opposite directions. Knights have been impressive in their new stadium all season, while Miners have lost five straight and are 1-4 ATS in those games. Smith should have his way against a tired UTEP team that will no doubt wilt in late November Florida heat (first game ever in the state).
<O</O
The play: UCF -20.5 for a medium bet.
<O</O
No real opinion on the Mizzou/Kansas game. A case can be made for both sides. I like Mizzou's QB a little better with his big-game experience, and I also think Pinkel is a better coach than most of you guys want to give him credit for. But the fat guy has done little wrong all season and I sure don't want to try to start beating him now, especially with all the $ he's made me the last couple of months.
<O</O
Not sure which team has made me the most money this season but it could well be a "go-against"... and that's Greg Robinson's Orange. The Cuse have not gotten more than two TD's in seven straight, and the Carrier Dome is no home-field edge these days. Meanwhile, Cincy's defense forces turnovers by the bunches and the Bearcat offense should be able to find ways to turn them into quick scores. This should be a cover by halftime.
<O</O
The play: Cincinnati -20 for a big bet.
<O</O
Some things just don't look right. Kentucky being a favorite against Tennessee in football happens to be one of them. Even if the Cats win today, they will still own the longest active losing streak against one team in all of college football (21 straight to Florida)... but it's been 23 years since the Cats beat UT. And now they are trying to lay points to a team most likely headed for title-clinching tilt against disappointed LSU? Can't see it. Too much offensive firepower for Vols.
<O</O
You can bet I'll be watching this one with a Woodford Reserve in hand and rooting for the Cats but they are going to likely struggle today.
<O</O
The play: Tennessee +3 -115 and ML for a combined medium bet.
<O</O
I ain't been betting a lot of totals these days but one of them stood out today.
<O</O
The Battle for the Beehive Boot shows most technical trends favor Utah (visitor 12-3 last 15 and 'dog' is 9-1 last 10 ATS), which has covered in each of its last six games. Johnson has played well as of late and the defense has given up just one touchdown in the last 14 quarters. BYU is ranked again and at 8-2, will likely sew up the league title in San Diego next week. But compelled to take here in what should be a low-scoring game.
<O</O
The play: UNDER 45.5 for a medium bet and Utah +4.5 and ML for a combined medium bet.
<O</O
Not sure where everyone gets off loving Memphis this week. Sure, Tigers have won and covered four of five, but SMU playing final game for lame-duck HC Bennett and the Stangs have been competitive in nearly every game, despite losing some in bizarre come-from-ahead fashion. QB Willis is better than his Memphis counterpart and the Tigers have taken advantage of a laughably easy schedule to earn C-USA bowl eligibility.
<O</O
The play: SMU +7.5 and ML for medium bets.
<O</O
Missed the six on Bammer earlier in the week and I am furious about it. While Auburn might win, I do not expect Bammer to roll over and play dead, especially with first-year coach Saban eager to atone for last week's debacle against Monroe. Passing for now, as I missed the price.
<O</O
Florida State has been a double-digit dog on the road exactly two times since 1997. I'll take a stab at the Noles in this one, as Weatherford figures to continue to improve here late in the season, while Gators already know they are headed for some kind of New Year's Day bowl but have little else to play for.
<O</O
The play: Florida State +14.5 for a medium bet. Also will stab at ML small.
<O</O
Willing to forgive -8 turnover disparity last week for Wazzou, as they look to be the more talented team today in the Apple Cup. Line surprisingly high for this one. A first half play might be in order (see my trends at the top of the thread)..
<O</O
The play: WSU +7 and ML for a combined medium bet.
<O</O
BONUS - One college basketball game so far.
<O</O
Getting good reports out of Muncie that say the Cards are really fighting for new HC Taylor. Despite three home losses to open the season; they appear to be in better shape than Evansville, even with just seven healthy scholarship players. Losing to Butler and Georgetown by about 20 points combined with this roster and the heartbreaker (up 17 second half) in OT to UWM nothing to be ashamed of. Take Ball State at a PICK today.
<O</O
GL!<O</O

 

[biggoob]

Sir Rex,
Can you please provide your thoughts on Ball State foots...They should pound northen ill today, right ?????

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Goob: Cards are 13-3 ATS last 16 road games but have only won outright by DD's two times. That tells me that laying this many points can be dangerous.

That being said, BSU wins today and it puts itself in great position to get a bowl bid. And with Northern's season-long injury problems and turnover issues (BSU should excel on both sides of the ball in that department in this matchup) and you have the makings of a possible cover.

Pass for me.

 

[Seabass]

Good thoughts as always Rex...I do disagree with the UConn/WVU look, but I'm a homer...just think that no one is giving UConn any respect, and they know it. The LSU game was the worst thing that could have happened to UConn, though, because now they have every incentive to run it up. Still, UConn has added a lot of lateral speed on D, and I hope that can slow the WVU offense. Question is whether UConn O can provide the points...they will need to grind it out and shorten the game up...

TENN I had the same exact thought as you, but thought I was too dumb and missing something. SO I went back and played it. CF gets shit because people say the pollsters pick on which teams have been good in the past, but its also the one sport where making picks based on history is usually a real good thing.

Good luck to you----I have a feeling my UConn Huskies will be seeing your Ball State boys in the International or Car Care Bowls...

 

[Cruzer0210]

gl rex

 

[Marsski]

Rex: It caught my eye that Theo Scott is returning at QB for the Bobcats in Athens today.
McCrae is playing in his last game for OU and has a chance to set school TD mark today and Miami has clinched the East...

Whatcha think about Frank's team to win?

 

[biggoob]

Thank you Rex !!!!! I always appreciate your effort !!

 

[CollegeKingRex]

It would be OU or no one for me today in Athens...

GL fellas; good thoughts Seabass...

 

[ljc_267]

always good stuff.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

GL Rex. What do you think of UGA -4?

 

[CollegeKingRex]

I like Tech. UGA does somehow still have slim national title hopes, though, and a good start by UK up in Lexington could positively affect their performance. But I note Tech's resilliency last week despite all the turnovers and I think they lose by no more than three today if they don't win the game on the court (a Redbearde ML special no doubt)...

 

[Vapster]

Good stuff CKR! bol today:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

You're dead on with your thoughts on the beehive rivalry (utah/byu). Expecting a low scoring affair myself with Utah getting over the top with special teams play.

 

[3wiggler]

<O</O
The Battle for the Beehive Boot shows most technical trends favor Utah (visitor 12-3 last 15 and 'dog' is 9-1 last 10 ATS), which has covered in each of its last six games. Johnson has played well as of late and the defense has given up just one touchdown in the last 14 quarters. BYU is ranked again and at 8-2, will likely sew up the league title in San Diego next week. But compelled to take here in what should be a low-scoring game.
<O</O
The play: UNDER 45.5 for a medium bet and Utah +4.5 and ML for a combined medium bet.
<O</O
<O</O

What do you make of the late line movement? 47.5 and rising fast. My guess is money comning in pounding the recent history of high scoring games....

 

[Kmacc]

any update on Justin Willis saw he was questionable for SMU don't like em with him not under center

 

[Jasper11]

Just want to say thanks for all your incredible picks. I thought the under in oregon vs Ucla looked extremely good. Could this be some kind of trap? If it is it's too late for me. Best of luck!

 

[Jasper11]

How about the cinnci cover. They scored while killing the clock with 1.25 minutes to play to cover by a half. A little luck never hurt. Great pics today.
You are one heroic figure!

 

[ghostnmyhead]

nice hit on cinc.. i had them with you.. wins like that keep me gambling..