CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. This is the most difficult card of the season, from what I gathered.
I am also under the gun with time constraints - the Nuba starting this week keeps me very busy here with all the early moves that might or might not be real (Spiro keeps us all guessing)...
So it'll be like last week. I'll post what I got and if you got questions, fire away and I'll do my best to get to them...
I had a few people ask me about Ball State. The Cards are 12-1 last 13 on the road ATS and now that they are plus-7, I would only go that way. But IU is one win from bowl eligibility and Lewis - in the first playing time of his career, battled the Hoosiers back from 16-down in Muncie in the season opener last season. He will give BSU problems. Pass.
Weather deals in Connecticut. I like Rutgers too but the value is gone.
The play: UNDER 43 for a medium bet.
Following the group on Md/Carolina. Looking forward to hearing Tim's take on the Terps as well.
THe play: Carolina -2.5 for a small bet.
Florida coming off a loss but there are enough chinks in their defensive armor that I have no problem taking more than two touchdowns with a spunky Vandy team that always plays the Gators close.
The play: Vandy plus 14.5 for a medium bet.
Not sure where everyone giving South Carolina all the love. Sure, they outplayed the Vols last week but Arky won in Columbia last season and now they get the Cocks at home. USC better against the pass than the run; not good news for Jones and McFadden duo that should explode. Watch out for now-healthy Monk at wideout on the jumpballs if the Cocks try to crowd the box. Dr. Bob starting to heat up, and only missing 4.5 to 5.5 doesn't bother me.
The play: Arkansas -5.5 for a big bet.
UTEP and Rice are two decent offenses and two godawful defenses.
THe play: OVER 72.5 in Houston for a small bet.
Not sure where anyone can make UCLA a favorite on the road the way they are playing lately. Willie T getting very comfy with the Dykes Texas Tech spread, and he led a great rally in Seattle last week. Confidence brimming from Cat offense and I don't like UCLA's team at all.
THe play: Arizona ML for a medium bet.
Arizona State (especially 2H) has been a cash-cow all season for me and I'm thinking that continues again. If they can withstand any kind of Oregon rush early, then they should impose their will later - especially after Erickson makes his second-half adjustments (153-29 they've outscored foes after the break this season). The big and experienced ASU offensive line should give Rudy C. plenty of time to pick on the smallish Duck DB's...
THe play: Arizona State plus 8 and ML for a combined big bet.
Marshall still sucks despite its win last week and now it goes to UCF - the Knights have been impressive in their new Orlando digs, winning three straight by 25 per contest. Marshall 5-17 last 22 ATS away from Huntington.
The play: UCF -14 for a medium bet
New Mexico is a cash cow as a road dog (16-4 last 20) and TCU's error-prone offense makes it tough to back them (1-6 last 7 ATS). Aware that the TCU defense is finally healthy but the Lobo offense and Rocky's 3-3-5 makes UNM the logical choice.
THe play: New Mexico plus 3.5 for a medium bet.
Wake has quietly won six straight, while Virginia's stroke of good fortunes (four of seven wins by less than 3!) finally ended last week. Deacons' defense and special teams make enough plays again to make the difference here.
THe play: Wake PICK for a medium bet.
Pretty sad when your biggest bet of the day is a total, but they really didn't estimate the weather when they came up with the FSU/BC total. It's low to begin with but there's a reason for that ... both defenses are far better than the offenses. When you add 40 mph sustained winds, it will make it virtually impossible to pass. Fewer plays, and a live dog = low scoring slugfest. FSU should relish its role in national prominence (though on the wrong side) once again.
THe plays: UNDER 41.5 in Chestnut Hill for a big big bet.
Florida State plus 7 and ML for medium bets.
Not sure where USC has the right to lay three scores to an Oregon State team that has already beaten a top-5 team this year. The play-calling just isn't there from first-year OC Steve Sarkisian and OSU should be able to keep this one low-scoring, especially now that Canfield is being much more careful with his passes. This goes to the wire.
THe play: Oregon State plus 15 for a medium bet and ML for a small bet
Lean to U-La-La but think I'll pass for now.
Also lean to MTSU as they have been good to me as of late but tough to buck Weatherbie as a SBC home dog. THe pecker-in-a-jigsaw theory that Razor relates to is good enough to keep me "passing" here...
GL today!
:cheers:
I am also under the gun with time constraints - the Nuba starting this week keeps me very busy here with all the early moves that might or might not be real (Spiro keeps us all guessing)...
So it'll be like last week. I'll post what I got and if you got questions, fire away and I'll do my best to get to them...
I had a few people ask me about Ball State. The Cards are 12-1 last 13 on the road ATS and now that they are plus-7, I would only go that way. But IU is one win from bowl eligibility and Lewis - in the first playing time of his career, battled the Hoosiers back from 16-down in Muncie in the season opener last season. He will give BSU problems. Pass.
Weather deals in Connecticut. I like Rutgers too but the value is gone.
The play: UNDER 43 for a medium bet.
Following the group on Md/Carolina. Looking forward to hearing Tim's take on the Terps as well.
THe play: Carolina -2.5 for a small bet.
Florida coming off a loss but there are enough chinks in their defensive armor that I have no problem taking more than two touchdowns with a spunky Vandy team that always plays the Gators close.
The play: Vandy plus 14.5 for a medium bet.
Not sure where everyone giving South Carolina all the love. Sure, they outplayed the Vols last week but Arky won in Columbia last season and now they get the Cocks at home. USC better against the pass than the run; not good news for Jones and McFadden duo that should explode. Watch out for now-healthy Monk at wideout on the jumpballs if the Cocks try to crowd the box. Dr. Bob starting to heat up, and only missing 4.5 to 5.5 doesn't bother me.
The play: Arkansas -5.5 for a big bet.
UTEP and Rice are two decent offenses and two godawful defenses.
THe play: OVER 72.5 in Houston for a small bet.
Not sure where anyone can make UCLA a favorite on the road the way they are playing lately. Willie T getting very comfy with the Dykes Texas Tech spread, and he led a great rally in Seattle last week. Confidence brimming from Cat offense and I don't like UCLA's team at all.
THe play: Arizona ML for a medium bet.
Arizona State (especially 2H) has been a cash-cow all season for me and I'm thinking that continues again. If they can withstand any kind of Oregon rush early, then they should impose their will later - especially after Erickson makes his second-half adjustments (153-29 they've outscored foes after the break this season). The big and experienced ASU offensive line should give Rudy C. plenty of time to pick on the smallish Duck DB's...
THe play: Arizona State plus 8 and ML for a combined big bet.
Marshall still sucks despite its win last week and now it goes to UCF - the Knights have been impressive in their new Orlando digs, winning three straight by 25 per contest. Marshall 5-17 last 22 ATS away from Huntington.
The play: UCF -14 for a medium bet
New Mexico is a cash cow as a road dog (16-4 last 20) and TCU's error-prone offense makes it tough to back them (1-6 last 7 ATS). Aware that the TCU defense is finally healthy but the Lobo offense and Rocky's 3-3-5 makes UNM the logical choice.
THe play: New Mexico plus 3.5 for a medium bet.
Wake has quietly won six straight, while Virginia's stroke of good fortunes (four of seven wins by less than 3!) finally ended last week. Deacons' defense and special teams make enough plays again to make the difference here.
THe play: Wake PICK for a medium bet.
Pretty sad when your biggest bet of the day is a total, but they really didn't estimate the weather when they came up with the FSU/BC total. It's low to begin with but there's a reason for that ... both defenses are far better than the offenses. When you add 40 mph sustained winds, it will make it virtually impossible to pass. Fewer plays, and a live dog = low scoring slugfest. FSU should relish its role in national prominence (though on the wrong side) once again.
THe plays: UNDER 41.5 in Chestnut Hill for a big big bet.
Florida State plus 7 and ML for medium bets.
Not sure where USC has the right to lay three scores to an Oregon State team that has already beaten a top-5 team this year. The play-calling just isn't there from first-year OC Steve Sarkisian and OSU should be able to keep this one low-scoring, especially now that Canfield is being much more careful with his passes. This goes to the wire.
THe play: Oregon State plus 15 for a medium bet and ML for a small bet
Lean to U-La-La but think I'll pass for now.
Also lean to MTSU as they have been good to me as of late but tough to buck Weatherbie as a SBC home dog. THe pecker-in-a-jigsaw theory that Razor relates to is good enough to keep me "passing" here...
GL today!
:cheers:
