Saturday's CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
OK fellas... Off another successful week. Couple of nice moneyline dogs (Northwestern and Miami O) get me into the positives a pretty good amount once again. (Yeah, Redbearde, I know...)

Thanks for the compliment, J-Galt...

Hawaii sucks. I bet them at halftime and they have yielded 2 defensive touchdowns. Not too late to turn it around because the Jose offense is horrid...

Purdue goes to Ann Arbor and I gotta like their spot considering that Tiller's had plenty of time to exploit what are certain to be holes in the Michigan defense. Not sure they can stop Michigan so I also eyeballing OVER if the total comes down from 56.

The play: Purdue plus 5 and ML for a combined medium bet.

Rutgers really overmatches Cuse on both sides. I've made a boatload of money betting against Syracuse in almost every game and I see no reason why it should stop now.

The play: Rutgers -17 for a big bet

No opinion on the first of many MAC shitters this week. Ohio must be unspeakably bad if they get run off the field by Barfalo and McRae once again fails to get 100 yards. All that said... I made the game higher and so did a friend of mine so I will consider laying 4 with the Bobcats for a small bet.

The play: Ohio -4 for a small bet (not placed yet, waiting for MAC help)

Northwestern coming off a big win over Michigan State that once again gets it back into possible bowl position (3-3)... The Wildcats racked up 1,028 yards against the Wolverines and the Spartans in the last two weeks. Now they face a porous Minny defense that still can't stop anyone. This line has to go up, doesn't it? I got the best of it if so...

THe play: Northwestern -6 for a medium bet

I like the spot for Kent State (think Akron) on Saturday but I sure ain't trying to get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut right now.

I also begrudgingly admit that South Carolina is prolly better than I once thought. Spurrier led USC to the cash 8 straight on the road and I don't see last week's win over Miami carrying over to more success for Butchie and the Heels. South Carolina is just better on both offense and defense and will pull away.

The play: South Carolina -7 for a medium bet.


Hard to figure out G-Tech's mindset. I think they are more talented than Miami but I'll sit out the first half until I can get a feel for that one...

Duke has covered five straight this season. I've been there a couple of times and not against them at all. At plus-three scores at home, I see no reason to figure why they can't cover the roomy impost against a VT team that had a deceptively big win last week (virtually no offense at all)... As a matter of fact, I like Duke's offense better - and they are the big home dog...

The play: Duke plus 14.5 for a medium bet.

No idea on U of L and Cincinnati - other than I would have had U of L about an 11-point fave before the season started. Now, I'm not trying to beat Cincy (was on the right side at Rutgers and ML last week)... but this is a ridiculous price. U of L as a DD dog for the first time since.... hmm....

Bama laying it in Oxford. They are superior to this team but note Ole Miss with four straight 'dog' covers at home. Tide with an SEC-low five sacks so expect Adams to try to make things happen and keep them in it throughout. No bet for now but if it goes over 7 I will be on the 'dog'...

Back with more in a bit...

:cheers:
 
Awesome - with you on Rutgers and the over in Mich/Purdue.

Looking forward to reading the rest - GL this week.
 
Good stuff Rex
I got Ohio (been chasing them, damn)
and Dook.
I will hit the Big Eleven in the morning.
Purdue will be there.
and hard to argue with NW.
GL
 
Northwestern game is suspicious.

What is it? Cant a below average Big 10 team cover three in a row?
 
Both Jorja and Vandy got embarassed on the road last week. Dawgs playin with revenge and with Nickson getting benched at Auburn, not sure I can take the 'Dores... but I won't lay it with UGA at Vandy, as I love getting points with Vandy...

Who is Barfalo to lay points to anyone? I saw Dr. Bob bet them too. Only way to play this game is Toledo ML. Sure, the Bulls have won a couple this season but Toledo has almost always laid 30 to them since they joined the MAC. Two things: either Walters will be on Toledo, or the Rockets will be on the take from him joining Dr. Bob on the other side. Either way, I'll take a stab. Screw the 4.5

The play: Toledo ML for a medium bet

Kansas gets the cash everytime out - and last week the Hawks were a good ML hit for me (I neglected to mention Kansas and Cincy as other, more modest ML winners)... but this is a big number for them to get over.... Still, I won't fade. KU with a bye up next, I believe, and this is a big revenger after Baylor scored three TDs to win outright (though Kansas got the cash as a dog; I remember, I laid it with BU haha).... Fat Man getting things turned around and Talib is THE best two-way player in America...

Wyoming has sights set on a MWC title but I won't lay it in a game between two well-coached teams. Remember, Rocky is 19-9 last 28 as a 'dog' and the Lobos are off a bye. THe last three have been decided by four, three and seven points in this series. I like the Pokes but will pass here.

Lean Messy State at this point. No bet at this point but remember that UT is in the middle of a giant Jorja/Alabammer sammich and I expect them to be as flat as can be in Starkvuhll...

Miami has beaten BG and got the cash six of the last seven times, and appear to be the most dangerous team in the East at this point. The Ball State win early showed how good the RedHawk defense can be if healthy... and putting up all those points at Minnesota was impressive too. Injuries ravaged them a bit but that just added some depth. In two MAC games, Miami has given up just two TDs. A win here puts them firmly in the East driver's seat. Temple put up 32 on BG and Sheehan threw five INT's to the Owls....

THe play: Miami O -1 for a medium bet

Utah returning home after nice win at Louisville. I lost on SDSU last week but it was more a loss on CSU from what I've been told. Having to only lay two touchdowns seems a tad cheap to me. If the Aztecs win this one, I'll have to re-do my rating on them, but I think the Utes are finally hitting their stride now that Johnson is healthy. Mack is a monster.

THe play: Utah -14 for a medium bet.

Central Michigan looked VERY impressive against Ball last week. Yes, the Cardinal defense has left much to be desired for years, but Central's defense held Ball in check for a good part of the afternoon (Take out the garbage stuff) - and Army is a big step down in offensive punch. Chips with 9 covers and a push in their last 10 home games. This one's a rout before halftime.

THe play: Central -13 for a big bet.

Rice was plus-7 in turnovers in beating Southern Miss in Hattiesburg (I was too drunk to remember the end of this game) but Houston has made mince-meat of the other similar foe (Tulane) that they saw this season. Backdoor (second half at least) was ajar there, so I won't lay it (sucks to see you up 45-17 and lose it on some bullshit at the end)...

Wazzou won turnover and yards battles last week at home, yet lost the war. Have to wonder how much is left in the tank for the Cougs, which face dynamic Denny Dixon and the Quack Attack. This has traditionally been a close series (39-38-7 in favor of Oregon SU) and WSU has gotten the cash in the last two. I made this game 14 and fully expect wiseguy action to be on the 'dog' as we near kickoff.

THe play: Washington State plus 19 for a medium bet. A very small ML bet on Wazzou, as well.

No idea what to do with Wisky off the loss. Or what to do with a Penn State team that could be anywhere (RB suspended for rape allegations, injuries everywhere, underacheiving in league play, etc.) - but I do favor Nittanys rather alarmingly big in power ratings... pass for now.

No idea about Nebraska/Okie State. Good offenses and poor defenses. Means OVER, right? We'll see - possible rain in Lincoln...

Chizik vs. Mack. Want no part of it; even though I made it higher I can't lay it in a game where Mack might take it easy on his former assistant. On the other hand, UT is better than the results of the last two and might need to start making statements. Pass.

Iowa is a total bag of shit at this point. Still, not interested in trying to start laying points with the Zookers on the road. Hell, it's semi-amazing he got the cash as a favorite last time out - even at home against an unbeaten team. Gotta pass.

OK, at a stopping point and I'll be at the store in 5 hours or so, so I'll be finishing up a little later.

GL to everyone and I'll try to respond to questions when I get time...
 
Thanks fellas...

Back to the card.

Not sure where I feel all the love for BC coming from. The Eagles beat up on three ACC foes to start the season but have since been lethargic at times in beating Army, a I-AA, and BG (the Falcons had more yards, but turnovers killed them).... Now Mattie Ryan meets the ND defense, which has steadily progressed (how could it not, after facing monster after monster each week).... Kudos to coach Weis (why did I not bet the Irish on the ML?) for the win last week but it was basically gift-wrapped, which is why some of my friends here and the oddsmakers continue to give ND too many. Still, this is in South Bend, and it will be close.

THe play: Notre Dame plus 14 for a medium bet and small ML...

Nicholson prolly won't play for Northern Illinois but I wonder how Western comes out after the crushing blow against Akron last time out. Prolly won't affect them, seeing how the stupid-ass MAC has not rendered inter-division games meaningless save for tiebreakers. Pass.

Stanford off the big win last week but TCU gets its running back back and should be plenty peeved after yet another narrow MWC road loss; this time to Wyoming. Frogs have too many blitzers to give Stanford much time to do anything on offense. UNDER worth a look.

THe play: TCU -5.5 for a medium bet.

Tough to figure out OSU still; except that the Beavers still turn it over like no one's business. Cal's potent attack should be able to put up plenty of points but this is Homecoming Saturday in Berkeley and two Pac-10 roadies are on deck. Pass.

No opinion on Fresno/Idaho.

At first glance, I wonder how Colly State can lay points to the Air Force. Still, I won't get involved in this one because people I respect are on both sides and have strong opinions here. CSU definitely has more talent but the Rams keep burning cash in the fave role and I'm not trying to let it happen again (well, I guess they were a small 'dog' vs. Colorado but that was a push that I felt like I shoulda won. Let it go, Rex, let it go)...

You enjoy betting your money with Temple and Akron. I'll pass.

There is a seperate thread on the UK/LSU game.

The play: UK plus 10 for a medium bet

Auburn has won 12 of 13 on the SEC road and the Tigers are playing very well right now. This is a revenger but I'm gonna leave it alone - Arky ran for 279 on the plains last year and might be able to duplicate that success again tonight.

How can U-ab lay points to anyone?

The play: Tulane ML for a medium bet

Passing UConn/UVa; both teams have basically overachieved against pretty passive schedules. Need to see them both another week.

Wow; Lousy Tech a nice fave. Ruston a tough place to play, and NM State coming off short week AND Boise trip - Shallow Hal will certainly struggle again offensively if Holbrook ain't there to run his Chuck 'N' Duck.

The play: Louisiana Tech -7 for a small bet

Tulsa is vastly superior to Marshall, but the number concerns me some - especially considering the Hurricane have allowed 188 points in the last four games!!! But Marshall doesn't have much depth and should really struggle against the Malzahn no-huddle... Marsjhall 2-18 ATS last 20 outside of Edwards Stadium. Missed the number here so gotta go a smidge smaller.

The play: Tulsa -13.5 for a medium bet.

MSU defense has struggled lately, and Indiana offense should be able to keep them in this til the end. I would say Indiana ML would be the way to go if you are confident Lynch can outduel DiAntonio and the Hoosiers attain the elusive sixth win they need for bowl eligibility. Pass.

Texas Tech basically owns Ayyunem in Lubbock. You'll have to pay to lay it but I would say favorite or no one here. Missed the price. If it goes below 10 at one of my spots (I'd say it's pretty probable) then I will have a medium bet on Tech.

The play: TT -9.5 for a medium bet if it comes. Or -10 for a small bet.

Runaway train on Mizzou/Okie game. If I can take 13 I will be on Mizzou for a small bet - as I only made the game 10. OU defense has shown some deficiencies the last three times out. Tigers are 5-0 and with the versatile spread, should keep this close. Pass for now.

Not sure how to read Colorado/K-State. Buffs rapidly improving and seem to now "get it" under 2nd year coach Hawkins... but K-State will likely show sense of urgency again today at home. Another game where if you like the 'dog', might be better off taking it on the ML. Pass.

No opinion on how Southern Miss rebounds after the gift-wrapped loss to Rice. Pass.

Ditto for UCF in its trip down to Tampa to play a likely more-focused Bulls team that struggled a good bit with FAU last week. Pass.

Number really got away from me in the ECU/UTEP game. ECU has played a rough schedule to start the season and it properly prepared them for the upset last week but I don't like this spot, travelling all the way to west Texas, to face perhaps the best team in the C-USA West. Still, now that I missed the price, gotta pass.

UNLV has been a decent dog as of late at home. But BYU got a nice road win last week and now controls its own destiny in the MWC race. I lean that way but I won't lay double-digits in this spot.

Locker is a solid freshman QB but he's still learning by the week and Denny Erickson has had enough time to see what U-Dub is doing offensively. The stout (and underrated) Sun Devil defense should be able to slow them down and note ASU is 11-2 in their last 13 laying DD's in Tempe. Lay it.

The play: Arizona State -11 for a big bet.

No idea on how USC will recover from big loss last week - or Arizona. Pass.

To the shit games... Arky State laying an awfully large tariff to U-La-La and a healthy Fenroy. Monroe laying more than a touchdown to ANYONE on the Sun Belt road???? Hmmm...

The Middle Tennessee defense has given up just 16 ppg in the last three and this team is once again well-coached. Memphis is sorta snakebit, with just 2 wins over DI-A teams the last 2 years. The game is at the Liberty Bowl, but MTSU is the better team.

The plays: MTSU ML and plus 4 (-115) for a combined medium bet.

Good luck today, gents...
 
GL today Rex, with you on Rutgers and NW early and like the Toledo ML play as well.
 
Ouch! You were dead wrong!
LSU did score more than 31.

Besides that you NAILED it.
Not only did I still play LSU but UK just shreds the Tigers all day and manages a SU win.

The RB was unstoppable and got 4 to 5 more yards after contact all day long. CONGRATS on a helluva call and monster win for the Cats.

O U C H
 
Thank you for taking the time to do this. It always gives me some valuable insights and it's appreciated. It's the first resource I check out on game day.
Great work!
 
Thanks fellas. Enjoying a glass of Woodford Reserve on the rocks. I have had this bottle here since 2004 - when I first came to Costa Rica. I only open it on special occasions - usually when I get laid (lol) and after every big UK win. Suffice it to say there ain't been many since I got here... In basketball over the last few years it's been a struggle, but with the new coach, and the football team knocking off No. 1, I think I can speak for all of my Bluegrass friends in saying it's a special time right now. Wish I could be back home to bask in it but I'm sure you guys will all drink one for me...

Let's see if we can get some late winners. Arizona State becomes a pivotal game now...
 
CKR, liking the 1h under at ASU with the Sun Devils being slow starters and their under rated defense... As you said, I think they should have enough to sniff out udub's offensive scheme. Any thoughts on this?
 
FYI, my sportsbook is giving me a bitch of a time placing this U28 1h wager... Odd enough, they placed a 200$ limit? what is that...? lol
 
hmm... depends on where you shop...

some of these places take bigger bets than others... but in the last game of the day, I would let most everyone bet whatever they wanted, especially cause it's on TV and they (and I) can watch it for halftime purposes....
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Thanks fellas. Enjoying a glass of Woodford Reserve on the rocks. I have had this bottle here since 2004 - when I first came to Costa Rica. I only open it on special occasions - usually when I get laid (lol) and after every big UK win. Suffice it to say there ain't been many since I got here... In basketball over the last few years it's been a struggle, but with the new coach, and the football team knocking off No. 1, I think I can speak for all of my Bluegrass friends in saying it's a special time right now. Wish I could be back home to bask in it but I'm sure you guys will all drink one for me...

Let's see if we can get some late winners. Arizona State becomes a pivotal game now...
Click to expand...

What a weekend!! Paying for it right now as my head feels like it might explode but hell i guess its worth it. Something magical is definately in the air around here, excitement level couldn't be any higher. It really is hard to believe how far this team has come under Brooks, simply a remarkable turnaround and I couldn't be more happy for all the Cats fans right now. Not sure if you got to watch any of madness but they look tough, Legion and AJ Stewart impressed me the most. Congratulations on what looked to be a profitable day for ya. :cheers:
 
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