Patience, fellas...
Tennessee/Florida should be interesting. Vols have played two solid teams to open up with, while Gators have been impressive at times, not so much so in others, in two tuneups for this one. I like Fat Phil's dog record in league games dating a few years, and I also like Tennessee's class when looking at the first two foes. It could certainly come in handy here.
THe plays: Tennessee plus 8 and ML small. ALSO NOTE THE TOTAL HERE - IT SEEMS HIGH TO BEGIN WITH AND RAIN IS FORECAST...
Notre Dame and Mishitgan. I suppose if I had to bet here, I would lay it. But it's go-against vs. go-against from what I've seen in the last 2 weeks. Tough to lay points in that spot.
Utah State has certainly improved but I'm not interested in getting in front of the OU Steamroller that plowed right over me with the Canes being victimized and sodomized last week. Norman machine hitting on all cylinders early.
Fresno came up in a valiant effort in Texas last week and meets a similar foe in Eugene this weekend. Tough to tell whether Oregon is that good or Mishitgan is that bad. I lean heavy to the dog but my number is nothing extraordinary so I'll watch a half and perhaps play the last 30 minutes.
I still don't understand the fascination with Mishitgan State. Sure, the Spartans have started 2-0 by beating up on a couple of inferior foes, just like Pitt. Sure, the Spartans beat Pitt up front badly last season (I had them ATS and ML, I believe)... And yes, D'Antonio has proven that he most likely was the right hire for the job.
But do they really need to start laying more than 11 to a Big East team that has enough talent to go out there and compete for 60 minutes on national television? Me thinks not.
Some of you guys are big on Caulcrick and Ringer, so let's see what they have today. With that massive O-Line giving them room to run, I expect big days. And they better have them, because I think Pitt can rack up chunks of yards in the air. Michigan State has shown hints of its youth at cornerback. The Panthers can expose that weakness with a big, solid receiving corps. Pitt has a good enough secondary to make the Spartans one-dimensional. I expect this to come down to the final minutes, and it will fall inside of one possession.
The plays: Pitt ML small and plus 11.5 for a total of a big bet.
Not sure what to make of Ohio State/Washington. The Huskies have impressed so far; I was on them 2H at Cuse and then ML against Boise. I like the young QB Locker; he's got a lot of talent and is not afraid to mix it up. The Buckeye defense was awesome last week against Akron but only getting 20 in that one doesn't bode well against an opportunistic Husky defense that held Boise in check much of last week. Ty Willingham is doing an excellent job and this should come down to the wire as well.
The plays: Wash plus 4 and ML for a combined small bet. Will up the stakes some if I can take 4.5
No value in Central Florida now that the price has gone down to 17 (thanks Bob) but I only made it 15.5 so not really looking like a bet anyway. Besides, the UT offense got untracked in the 2H last week and UCF's defense isn't in the class of TCU. Pass.
All the UCLA love is rather sickening; especially here at the shop where I wrote my first two bets at -13... the injury situation from the Utes appears to have most steering clear from them. I made the game much lower but it's tough to bet when you don't have many horses - and UCLA has been solid ATS last 3 years under Dorrell...
Tough to gauge which is the right side of Ball/Navy. The homer in me says Ball has more offensive weapons and talent than Navy can defend; but the Cardinals should struggle with the Navy option. Still, the BSU defense has looked as stout now (and last four of 2006) than it has since the late 90s and the Vegas Bowl days... Pass.
Indiana really laying DD's against Akron? Well, the Zippies have struggled on offense, whereas the Hoosiers have really excelled on both sides under Lynch thus far. But not interested in laying it in a spot where IU has traditionally spit the bit.
East Carolina catching points at home? Southern Miss is solid, but Skip Holtz always seems to have his team ready for spots like this, and now that the sting of the first loss is fully out of the way, his side looks like the right one. Not sure why North Carolina is getting all the love at the windows this week coming off a loss to ECU - but the Pirates continue to be overlooked. Pinckney has been impressive thus far and even though Fletcher gives USM a big edge there, the rowdies at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium should help propel the hosts.
Not sure if Western Mishitgan has the offensive firepower to stay within the number in COlumbia. If they can avoid turning the ball over, I think it's possible but this is another in a line of brutal contests to start the season for the Broncos - none of the teams they've played has even come close to sniffing a loss.
Not interested in border skirmish up in Pullman. Ex-Wazzou DC Akey is the new Vandal HC; they were competitive at USC and I think they get the cash if the gun was to my head, but Brink revved it up last week.
Houston laying an astonishingly low number at the Superdome. My number shows it should be 17. It has gone up, however, from the 12.5 that I nabbed at CRIS last Sunday. The Cougs dominated Oregon at the point of attack for much of the game two weeks ago, and have now had time to make adjustments and prepare for a Tulane defense that allowed 38 to Mississippi State (???)... Aldridge should have his way before being subbed out.
The play: Houston -12.5 for a big bet. - I WOULD LAY UP TO 14 (doesn't exist now) for a big bet and up to 15.5 for a medium bet....
There's enough UK/U of L talk around here that you don't need my 2 cents. It's sucker city anyways; I agree with my sportswriting buddies from back home...
The play: OVER 76 for a big bet in Rexington.
This is a big revenger for Bammer, and if they play the way they did last week in Nashville it should come up roses. But Arky a bit more physical than the Commidorks - and even without Monk, should be able to compete all the way. Tough to lay it in these games. I expect it to be low-scoring and the total would look more appealing if I weren't concerned with the possibility of it going into overtime tied at 17, for example.. Might be worth looking at 1H UNDER.
Tech looks like world-beaters early now that Ball has moved on (somewhere) but the luster has been knocked off the Notre Dame win now that Penn State proved that the Irish, indeed, stink. Ryan has an advantage in the QB matchup and BC has picked NINE passes in two games. Maybe Jag knows what he's doing. Will wait and see how the day is going. If the line continues to push downward, I would be interested in laying less than 6.
No thoughts on Puke/Northwestern in the Brain Bowl from Evanston. The Cats had a nice come-from-behind win last week but seem to be overvalued once again. But the Cats have much more offensive weaponry than the sorry Devils.
If Rice gave up 63 to Baylor, then what might Harrell and Leach and Co. do to them?
The play: Texas Tech -27.5 for a big bet.
Getting the opener is key when you can lay 5 points on a game you make 8.5.... Now it's Saturday and I've patiently been waiting to take Nebraska plus 11. But it doesn't look like it's gonna happen. Now I'm considering a buyback at 10. Gut tells me that more money comes for the favorite today. I have zero opinion on the game and will be on both sides... but it's more fun to have 6,7,8,9,10 and 11 as possibilities instead of just 6,7,8 and 9. If it gets to 7.5, I will have to take the buy-back and call it a loss. No opinion at all and a medium bet on both sides coming.
Not sure who NM State is to lay points when Shallow Hal proved once again last week that he refuses to stop anyone. The Ags ain't beat a major team outside the Sun Belt since 2002!
The play: UTEP ML for a small bet
Biggest bet of the week was on Wyoming. The Cowboys are for real, folks. Now that the air has been let out of the Boise Balloon, expect a deflated effort from the Broncos. Wyoming's defense has been stout so far this season (see Virginia) and it's not an accident that Joe Glenn's unit held Boise to its lowest output in 2006 (246 total yards, 17 points). The balanced Wyoming offense (411 yards rushing, 433 yards passing) should keep Boise off-balance and this is a let-down spot if there ever was one for a smaller conference team that had more unbeaten aspirations dashed last week. Tharp is a fifth-year senior but has made only 2 starts at QB for the Broncs, while Sween has been strong for Wyoming (please stop throwing interceptions). Wyoming has allowed foes to rush for just 2.2 yards per carry thus far, so they can down Ian Johnson and make Boise try to beat them in the air. This is a huge tariff and one I gobbled up early.
The play: Wyoming plus 14 for a big bet and ML for a small bet. WOULD PLAY A BIG BET ALL THE WAY DOWN to 11.5, which exists worldwide.
BYU very unlucky to not get the cash and the outright win last week despite outplaying Bruin for 50 of the 60 minutes. Will they letdown? Tough question. Tulsa has been off for 16 days since thrashing Monroe on the road to open up. I like Smith and am not willing to lay a touchdown against him away from Provo.
What to think about the GSFW's? Not sure, but I won't lay it this week if they barely can escape Ruston with a win. Let me watch a half.
I made Florida State much higher and expect the line to go up; but the Noles have not performed near expectations thus far and Hawkins is as clever as they come. ASU outclassed the Buffs last week but FSU hasn't shown those signs yet. Passing for now.
Not sure just how bad SDST is but I am very impressed with Arizona State. Erickson got off the gas last week and I didn't like that one bit - hard to lay four scores when the coach pulls that stunt, lol.
I'm not quite ready to start laying it with Arizona and their "JV Texas Tech" offense just yet. Let's see them do it against a decent D-I defense. Rocky Long and his 3-3-5 should provide a good test for young Wilbur. Porterie got a confidence-boosting 342 yards against Aggie last week and expect him to keep them in it throughout.
The play: New Mexico plus 10 for a small play.
SJST is banged up. Good news is that tackle Booker is going to go, as is QB Tafralis (shoulder) who has healed and will play. Bad news is that Stanford looks just a little better at this point. I know someone asked for my thoughts here but both teams look like go-against material at this point. I only made Stanford 4 so if I had to bet, it would be on the dog and I would guess the smart money would be there too, if it got involved.
To the shit games...
No thoughts on Miami/FIU. Coaches worked at Miami last year so normally I would side with dog cause of "mercy factor" but Miami needs to establish itself as a bully once more after getting ass-pounded at Oklahoma.
Lots of sharpies on Monroe and OVER in Aggieland but not so fast. I think Ayyunem will establish itself up-front and cruise after avoiding crushing upset last week.
Lots of love for Arkansas State but I need to see a game after the postponement last week. Rating might be off (I made Injun 1.5)...
Florida Atlantic has yet to really get a breakthrough win against a big-timer under Howard the Pipe. But would beating this Minny unit qualify? Perhaps not, when you consider Miami O threw for 2 times as many yards against Gopher than it did against previously-porous Ball State. Only reason I'm keeping this small is that FAU is 0-8 in last 8 outside of SBC, but 7 of those were on the road; this one is at semi-neutral Dolphin Stadium. Also note Middle Tenny erupted for 42 at Louisville after FAU virtually shut them down. Try my luck here...
The plays: FAU plus 8 medium and ML small...
No opinion on MTSU and LSU.
GL all!
