Saturday, September 29th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
CFB: 36-30-2 +10.25


Well, that was one helluva rollercoaster ride last week. Started out on a high note with Okalhoma and Saturday was just a lot of emotional highs and lows. I typically hate the start of conference season and it showed in the results. Losing LSU,Wisky,PSU,Texas Tech, etc is all part of that. Typically week 4 is great but at same point a lot more conference openers than usual. Some tough losses and some just bad plays. Overall though, lost only 1.70 units last week. That I can accept when it was looking really bad at some points.

I really do not like much on this card this week. I studied the games yesterday afternoon before lines came out and nothing jumped out at me like usual. One thing I noticed when the lines did come out was the shift to early money goinmg on underdogs. Its getting to be that time of year. I will post a lot less chalk. Basically to get my capping started, I will go with the big chalk I like before I lose anymoe value. I like OSU,OU as well but have not played yet. Something is making me slightly leery on those.


Tulsa -18.5 -110
Purdue -21 -110



Both those plays are for one unit. Tulsa has playd two big games in a row at home. Otherwise the play would be elevated slightly. I still think they just murder this team. UAB will have zero answers for Paul Smith. I see a score in the 51-24 range.

Purdue is a machine on offense. Their defense is not good but its nothing Notre Dame will be able to take advantage of. ND forced the run last week alot and it worked somewhat. Michigan State left a good 10 points off the board and coulda won 41-14 easily. Painter and company owe ND quite a bit of payback. This one gets ugly. Boilers 50-21.
 
Random Thoughts:

Anyone want to fill me in on how Iowa will do defensively against a QB like Lewis? Line dropped 4 points and I think IU could give them trouble but Iowa features a pretty nasty defense as well.

Me thinks Syracuse is getting a bit too much credit this week. Line moved them to a favorite position but I do not agree. Only fear is that now they have confidence and it spreads.

Alabama and Florida State UNDER? It opened at 45. I bet BM shows about a 42 tomorrow afternoon.

Cal and Oregon total opens 72. I think this could be 77 when we see it tomorrow.

I know everyone is on Clemson..and I agreed intially. Would have loved to had that +1 instead of -3. I have an iffy feeling about that game though right now.

Tell me about La Tech. Line went from +17 to +12.5 against Fresno St.
 
Anyone want to fill me in on how Iowa will do defensively against a QB like Lewis? Line dropped 4 points and I think IU could give them trouble but Iowa features a pretty nasty defense as well.
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.
Their front is their strength and they have good motor..their secondary is their weakness...they'll pressure em alot though...moving the ball won't be easy...I made this 8, so I think it's way too high..

Not interested in it under 14.5 though.

Me thinks Syracuse is getting a bit too much credit this week. Line moved them to a favorite position but I do not agree. Only fear is that now they have confidence and it spreads.
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No doubt...I was laughing w/ RJ on this one and asked him how in the hell they would set a line on this game...so what do they do, release it a PK..LOL..

SYR shouldn't be favored on the road against anyone in the nation..but Miami has been beyond brutal the last couple weeks and are beat up..

Alabama and Florida State UNDER? It opened at 45. I bet BM shows about a 42 tomorrow afternoon.
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YUP...don't see how anyone can take either side in this game..I think FSU wins though.

Cal and Oregon total opens 72. I think this could be 77 when we see it tomorrow.
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Yup again..can't make it high enough.

I know everyone is on Clemson..and I agreed intially. Would have loved to had that +1 instead of -3. I have an iffy feeling about that game though right now.
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Betting Clemson as a fave w/ Tommy Bowden as coach in back to back road weeks is just a BAD idea...they lose one or two of these games a year...and GT's defense isn't NCST's....QB is still green and GT's Coordinator I think can take Spiller/Davis outta the game to a certain extent and confuse him...one or two turnovers and GT wins...if Choice is healed, i like that side.

Tell me about La Tech. Line went from +17 to +12.5 against Fresno St.
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:36_11_6:
 
B.A.R. said:
Random Thoughts:

Anyone want to fill me in on how Iowa will do defensively against a QB like Lewis? Line dropped 4 points and I think IU could give them trouble but Iowa features a pretty nasty defense as well.

Not sure - something tells me that Indiana covers as long as they avoid mistakes. Iowa has no semblance of an offense outside of Young.
Me thinks Syracuse is getting a bit too much credit this week. Line moved them to a favorite position but I do not agree. Only fear is that now they have confidence and it spreads.

I would lean toward Miami OH, as hard as it is given their last two weeks.
Alabama and Florida State UNDER? It opened at 45. I bet BM shows about a 42 tomorrow afternoon.

It would definitely be nice to get mid-to-high 40s here.

Cal and Oregon total opens 72. I think this could be 77 when we see it tomorrow.

You are probably right, but sometimes crazy stuff happens between now and when they open online on Tuesday.
I know everyone is on Clemson..and I agreed intially. Would have loved to had that +1 instead of -3. I have an iffy feeling about that game though right now.

I think GT could win, though I have no statistical back-up as to why. Just a gut feeling.

Tell me about La Tech. Line went from +17 to +12.5 against Fresno St.

I thought that -14 was the fair line, so this doesn't strike me as too odd.
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GL this week BAR - keep up the good work. :cheers:
 
I think Clemson is a different team this year, I don't see how GT will score much on them. Harper makes good decisions and the coaches are smart enough to give the hb's a lot of tosses to the outside. I like the way the receivers block o the edges and frees those rb's for more yardage.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I think Clemson is a different team this year, I don't see how GT will score much on them. Harper makes good decisions and the coaches are smart enough to give the hb's a lot of tosses to the outside. I like the way the receivers block o the edges and frees those rb's for more yardage.
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I can't believe I have to admit this but yes, I believe it is a different team as well. Tammy can not fuck this game up
 
I love Notre Dame, but Purdue is gonna name their score, this line should seriously be more like 28 ... would anyone play ND? No way. Especially after Weis' press conference his first year where he said, "the days of losing to the Purdue's of the world are over." They want to kill them, its gonna be really, really bad. I've been dreading this for weeks.
 
ATLHawksBandwagon said:
I love Notre Dame, but Purdue is gonna name their score, this line should seriously be more like 28 ... would anyone play ND? No way. Especially after Weis' press conference his first year where he said, "the days of losing to the Purdue's of the world are over." They want to kill them, its gonna be really, really bad. I've been dreading this for weeks.
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Thank you for adding that in. Thats huge. Sometimes teams may have a motivational situation but not the talent to expound upon it. In this case, Purdue has plenty.
 
Goopster24 said:
Like what you are thinking on Purdue BAR. I am also leaning Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. Any thoughts?
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I can't even touch a VT game as big chalk. Tyrod isn't psing any better than Glennon. Just do not trust that offense.

I like OU. It makes sense and I may still add it. Stoops knows they need to keep piling on as they could be odd team out of LSU-USC for BCS due to the weak conference they play in.
 
vegaskyle said:
BAR , we getting a michigan write up this week ?
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I'll whip something out tomorrow. Been doing a lot of reading on the in-state chools tonight to try and help get some more information to all of you. Heres a few tidbits.

Mallet is listed as starter on depth chart released on Monday. That being said Henne has been cleared to play. Michigan gave Mallett much more to work with playbook wise against PSU than ND and despite a few shaky things he handled it pretty well against a very good defense.

A lot of guys on defense are just developing as the weeks have went by. After two weeks of vanilla offenses they played though they are back to playing one of 'these' teams..lol.

Tyrell Sutton should be a go. Tough running back.

Michigans special teams coverage units were outstanding last week. PSU had been averaging a preposterous 45 yards per kickoff return but UM shored that up.
 
brewer said:
thoughts on NC st please?
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As always, I would refer you to redbearde for the best State thoughts..

This I know..there is no way to back UL right now. There season is shattered, their defense is horrid and Brohm is out of Heisman race. I think NC St may be a live dog here and the early line movement would reflect as much. The wolfpack has played some good defenses(Clemson, BC) so its a tad tough to rate their defense. Evans came in last week and did lead them to a few scores. The first was a 99 yard KO return FWIW. If Suckacuse can move the ball against UL then anyone can.
 
Kyle,

I also wanted to answer this question from the PM yesterday.

This is a perfect road scenario for UM if Mallett starts. Its not the shoe, MSU or Madison..its a nice queit enviroment that will have plenty of UM alumni at it.
 
RJ Esq said:
Thank you for betting tOSU. I felt lonely.
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I liked it intially but was 21.5 going to 22...so It gave me time to look at it more...bjorks write-up is great and I looked over it for final time this morning and pulled the trigger.
 
B.A.R. said:
Sweet. Just saw line is twenty. Alos saw your buddys at the Empire are all over it too.
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Not sure if this comment carried any ill-sentiments, so I won't respond in a negative manner. I'll just say that I have always thought the "war" between the two sites is childish. I don't have time to create enemies with people who post on forums that I don't even know - I've got a lot better things to do with my time. That being said - I love the info that both sites have to offer and I can honestly say that both sites have helped me out in different ways as a capper. :shake:
 
BAR--Adding this here as well as my thread. The hatred of ND by Purdue is palpable this week.

It's Notre Dame Week


So we're a month into the college football season and all seems right with our world -- Purdue is 4-0. Also making this a fun football season is the fact that Notre Dame, led by genius Charlie Weis, is 0-4... for the first time in their history. It took the Domers until week four against Michigan State at home to score an offensive touchdown. So I mean, there's bad and then there's.... bad. Not being able to score for a month is kind of horrendous. And you'd think this would make fans of the Golden Dome a bit more humble. You know, like when Michigan lost to App St. and the guys at MGoBlog turned their site pink and full of kittens for several days. They raised the white flag and admitted they had nothing to say to defend their beloved team's performance. But are ND supporters like this at all? Well, take a look at this post from "Her Loyal Sons" and judge for yourself:

It’s bad enough that ND is 0-4 this season. It’s even worse to know that this is Purdue week - The Most Boring Week In College Football Blogging.

If you guys hear anything that we should know and that we should let other ND fans know about Purdue, please feel free to e-mail us. We’re digging. We really are, but Purdue is simply the most boring college football program in the nation, and it’s hard to keep our attention on the task at hand. I got distracted by some pre-Algebra homework problems earlier when I was trying to pull some facts together about whoever their coach might be. I think he sells diabetes equipment or something.

This would be a vastly more interesting week if we’d dump Purdue from the schedule and take on a team like, say, ITT Technical Institute. Do they have a football team? I often wonder why kids go to play at Purdue. What, hate the difficulty of playing for a team that people might actually look up in the Sunday papers? Have a masochistic love of tedium?

Maybe we’ll do a “look back” on what’s happened in the last 4 weeks since, apparently, nothing much will be happening this week.

Wow. I mean, just... wow. The level of obnoxiously blinding arrogance is hard (nay, impossible) to measure here. Are you guys f-cking serious?? Shall we take things a-hole comment by a-hole comment? Okay.

It’s even worse to know that this is Purdue week - The Most Boring Week In College Football Blogging.

Really? In-state rivalries are that boring to you? I suppose so if you know a beatdown is coming. I hate to break this to Notre Dame, but USC doesn't really consider you guys a "rival" the way you do. They see you as a nuisance from the midwest. You don't matter to them, you're a W on their schedule and then they move on to actually challenging opponents. Your best try still wasn't good enough a couple of years ago. Long grass, home-field, hometown refereeing... and you still lost. So why not embrace an in-state rival that has actually been a good series in recent years?

If you guys hear anything that we should know and that we should let other ND fans know about Purdue, please feel free to e-mail us.

Um, oh, hey, I have something: We're 4-0, bitch. We have a top ten offense... in the nation. We're ranked. Our QB has 16 TDs and one pick. We're averaging almost 50 points a game. Want me to keep going? Or should I have started small? Like with: It didn't take us a month to score a touchdown.

Purdue is simply the most boring college football program in the nation, and it’s hard to keep our attention on the task at hand.

Really? The most boring? With an explosive offense and a suspect defense? You think that's boring? The fact that against any good team we'll probably be playing shootouts? That's boring to you clowns?? Right. So now you're just lying.

I got distracted by some pre-Algebra homework problems earlier when I was trying to pull some facts together about whoever their coach might be. I think he sells diabetes equipment or something.

I love that they're doing pre-Algebra at Notre Dame. Well-played, moron. You just made yourself look brilliant. Pre-algebra is something that's done by seventh-graders... outside of South Bend, I imagine. At ND, you can probably major in it. Unless this blog is written by a seventh-grader. Which, given its quality, actually seems possible. And yes, Joe Tiller looks like Wilford Brimley. We've done that joke a million times and he's our own coach. Do you want me to comment on what your coach looks like?

This would be a vastly more interesting week if we’d dump Purdue from the schedule and take on a team like, say, ITT Technical Institute. Do they have a football team?

I'm sure you boys would love to "dump Purdue" from the schedule -- who wants a team that can beat you and perhaps even steal some recruits? You guys only have 6 or 7 gimme wins a season on your schedule so ITT Tech would fit right in with the plan. That way, you can continue to put up the occasional 8 or 9 win season, secure a nice bowl and then get blasted by a far, far superior program. Oh, hey, did you guys know that the last time Notre Dame won ANY bowl game was when Jimmy Clausen was about six years old?

I often wonder why kids go to play at Purdue.

I don't know, maybe because they like to score points? Play in a conference? Not live in South Bend? Shall I go on?

What, hate the difficulty of playing for a team that people might actually look up in the Sunday papers?

What does this even mean? College football is on Saturdays. But these guys haven't seen something resembling college football in a while so it's easy to see how they might be confused.

Have a masochistic love of tedium?

Again, this irrational shot at Purdue for being boring and tedious. I don't get it. You can certainly take shots at us -- lord knows we take shots at our own program all the time and there's plenty to shoot at. But to call us boring? I just don't get it. Nine bowls in ten years. One losing season since Tiller has gotten here. Was Drew Brees boring? Was it boring when Kyle Orton and Taylor Stubblefield embarassed the Domers in South Bend in 2004?

Maybe we’ll do a “look back” on what’s happened in the last 4 weeks since, apparently, nothing much will be happening this week.

This last line made me laugh. You're going to "look back"? At what? At all the insanely awful play from your team this year? Give me a break. You have fun with your look-back. We'll be looking ahead at the rest of our schedule.
 
Haha great picture of the worst Claussen. He shouldve went to Tenn. like his older bros, at least they would have some talent around him. ND is already getting one of the top QB recruits in the country this year. Claussen may be a backup in a year or two HAHA.

:36_11_6:
 
More from Purdue blogs:

Why does Purdue hate Notre Dame?


It is Notre Dame week, and that means only one thing: It’s time for the Purdue message boards to be rife with anti-Irish rhetoric. This year it seems to be turned up a notch, as there is the rare opportunity available for the Boilermakers to put a serious hurting on the Irish in retribution for the last two years. In scanning the Irish Illustrated boards even many Notre Dame fans seemed resigned to their fate as the Irish are mired in the midst of its worst start in school history. Many of these are the same fans who stated last year that losing to the Boilers was a thing of the past, but this season has brought a sharp wake-up call that things can change quickly.

But this is a Purdue blog, and I am trying to figure out exactly why we hate our neighbors to the north so much. Personally, I hate them because of many members of the fanbase that, while they do not represent the fanbase as a whole, they are so irrational as to think that Purdue is somehow vastly inferior and beneath them that they are shocked if we ever beat the Irish. I recognize Purdue will never have the same tradition, national exposure, or nationwide following that the Irish have, but come on. It’s not like we’re Navy and have never been competitive in the series. The last ten years alone show only a 6-4 advantage for the Irish, and before that our program struggled to score regular wins against anyone, let alone Notre Dame. Four of those six Purdue losses were by less than a touchdown as well.

Secondly, I think that many Purdue fans, at least football-wise, view Notre Dame as our primary rival considering the recent one-sidedness of the Old Oaken Bucket Rivalry. In that same 10-year period we are 9-1 against the Hoosiers with many of those results being one-sided blowouts. We almost tend to view our game with Indiana as a mere formality, much like the Irish viewed us from 1985-1997. Since our program as a whole has improved we have sought out a better team by which to measure ourselves, so it is a bit of a tribute to Notre Dame’s tradition that we view them in this right. Instead of battling Indiana for the #2 slot in the state pecking order we have firmly grasped it and want to naturally go for #1.

Even in year when Notre Dame is down it still is a huge boost to the program for the Boilers to beat them. Simply because they have the name Notre Dame associated with them means that, even this year at 0-4, for one week the nation’s eyes will be on us. Every time we face them we are on national TV and therefore it’s a chance to show the country Purdue football, a chance that we rarely get unless we are at the top of the Big Ten.

Personally, I think we put a little too much into a game that doesn’t even count as a conference win for us. We build up this game like it is the end all, be all of our season too many times. Yes it is an important rivalry for us, even a trophy game that everyone looks forward to, but putting the score of the game on our bowl rings as we have done before is a little too much.

The reality of the situation is that Notre Dame is not nearly as good as they are perceived as being in the eyes of many of their fans and the national media, but neither is Purdue. Notre Dame has and always will have decided advantage in terms of recruiting, exposure, and sheer raw talent. What has made the difference though in this series recently has been coaching. Coach Tiller has found a way to often get more out of a recruit than anyone expects, while coaches Davie, Willingham, and even Weis to an extent this year are finding ways to get less out of more. Is this a case of Notre Dame simply relying on their name too much? Possibly, but I doubt it. As a whole college football has changed and it is more difficult than ever to get to the top, let alone stay there.

In the early part of this decade Miami was being talked about as one of the greatest dynasties of all time while USC was struggling to 6-6 seasons. Now the reverse is true. There will be ebb and flow every year, and even a program as storied as Notre Dame with all the decided advantages it has over the other 119 schools can’t climb to the top and stay there long.

It is also some of those advantages that cause the hatred to flow. I respect the tradition, but it has been 20 years since the last national title. Most of the kids playing weren’t even born yet. The Irish also get oversaturated to the point where the average fan simply wants them to go away, whether they are good or bad. There are currently seven other 0-4 teams right now, but can you name one of them? How about three? Yet we all know Notre Dame is 0-4 and it is made out to be a national tragedy.

The opposite is true if they are 4-0. Suddenly the echoes are awakened, Knute is back on the sidelines, and we are all to pause and honor the greatest team to ever walk the face of the earth. It’s no wonder that many kids find it difficult to play there with these wild swings of emotion. When you couple this with their special BCS rules that only they enjoy and the massive deal they get from NBC it draws even more ire. Who can blame the Irish for not joining a conference though when they would have to give up that sweet deal?

For Purdue fans it is a combination of all of this. Most of us know we will never be on Notre Dame’s level nationally in terms of respect, and for that we are a bit envious. What bothers us is when Notre Dame automatically disrespects us even though we are one of their regular opponents. Obviously there is a good relationship between the two universities because they continue to play each other. More than once we have ruined a potentially good Irish season with a shocking upset. Through all this we are still not respected, yet Navy, a team that has gone nearly fifty years without a victory in the series, is held in awe.

Personally I do see them as our biggest football rival, and I am relishing in the suffering that they are going through right now because it seems well deserved for the false cockiness of the past two seasons. I do know that the Irish will rise again as they always do. Purdue has a long way to go before we can even get to .500 in the series, but it still doesn’t mean we can’t try. As a whole we may put a little too much into the rivalry, and we certainly put more into it than Notre Dame gives in return, but it is the stick by which we have chosen to measure ourselves by. If we beat them it is a feather in our cap because no matter how bad they are, we get the honor of beating Notre Dame nationally.

Like my wife, a University of Miami alum says though, “At least they’ll still play you guys. They say they won’t play us and call us criminals but they’ll still play Florida State.”
 
Great reads, unreal that ND fans say that about Purdue. I hope Purdue kick s the living shit out of them, worst loss of the season.
 
If given the chance would Purdue score 60 on them? IE....Curtis Painter dropping back to pass with 4minutes left in the game up 27+?
 
Another question..


Besides Tammy Bowden fucking this game up on the road, what do you guys like about GT in this game? The fact that it is an absolute must win in the conference or their season is over? That is the only positive I see for them here, they have to win or they are doomed. I despise what they call an offense. They have 1 play maker on offense, who is the 3rd best RB on the field Saturday, where as Clemsux has 4 of them. Their defense is solid but their offense can't help them out. They won't over match Clemson on the L.O.S either like they did to ND. At the end of the day, I understand why a career >50% passer (Reggie Ball) was able to keep his job for 4 yrs, because Bennett sucks too much to take it from him.
 
counselor said:
Who wouldn't hang 60 on ND if they had the opportunity?
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I'm talking bout, how much are they going to run it up if given the chance to name their score. Purdue scores on the arm of Curtis Painter. Most teams with some class, stop throwing the ball with 4minutes left in the game up 4td's. I just want to know like is it, anything goes here? Kick em' while their down?
 
It's a fair question, I just think there's a better-than-average chance this thing gets so out of control by then it won't matter...

I will say this: If ND is throwing the ball trying to score with 4 minutes left, Tiller won't just take a knee....if Weis relents and accepts the defeat, Tiller will call off the dogs...IMHO
 
I won't bet against my teams, but Purdue is going to absolutely shit on ND, the only reason the line is so low is because 28+ would look so shocking on an ND game, but that really is what it should be. If they were going to show up, it would have been last week. Another player, Konrad Reuland (soph TE, #2 TE in HS) just left school. This team is in shambles.
Clearly the team is imploding, which is really annoying since they should be really good in a couple years. The seniors are Willingham's last class, which was awful, and the Juniors are from the turnover year which had basically no recruits. Freshman/Soph are both top 5 classes, and next year is gonna be another top 5. Yet, people are bolting left and right, very frustrating.
 
RambleOn said:
Not sure if this comment carried any ill-sentiments, so I won't respond in a negative manner. I'll just say that I have always thought the "war" between the two sites is childish. I don't have time to create enemies with people who post on forums that I don't even know - I've got a lot better things to do with my time. That being said - I love the info that both sites have to offer and I can honestly say that both sites have helped me out in different ways as a capper. :shake:
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No, I didn't mean it as ill-will. I just saw that they have a lot of confidence on the game. I hope it does very well for them as I am on the same play..lol.
 
California Over 72 -110
UCLA Under 56.5
LSU Over 49

all one unit..for now...will discuss further in a bit.
 
Like em bro..can definitely understand the plays...

will there be a punt in oregon?
 
HUNTDOG said:
Like em bro..can definitely understand the plays...

will there be a punt in oregon?
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I highly doubt it. Look at the Tech-Okie game. Those teams were going for it anywhere because they knew they could not give up possessions and position didnt matter too much
 
Anybody know what the contract situation is for the Purdue/ND series? Purdue would have some real motivation to keep this reasonable if there's any question about ND renewing - and I know they're in the process of reworking several of their long-term relationships. An ND home game helps sell season tickets, and dropping 60 on them when their down won't help. Of course, they won't need 60 to cover the 22, which still seems cheap to me.
 
Hill16 said:
Anybody know what the contract situation is for the Purdue/ND series? Purdue would have some real motivation to keep this reasonable if there's any question about ND renewing - and I know they're in the process of reworking several of their long-term relationships. An ND home game helps sell season tickets, and dropping 60 on them when their down won't help. Of course, they won't need 60 to cover the 22, which still seems cheap to me.
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Inter-state rivalry. It'll always be there, IMHO...
 
A review of future ND skeds confirms this. They're booked through 2016, so Purdue can drop 75 on them. Don't love the noon start. Was thinking this game was later in the day.
 
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