25-21-1 +10.95 units
Very interesting week to say the least. I ended up hammering Texas Tech as STEED posted the rest of the play for me right before gametime. I also played a bit more on Hawaii and Florida over so I posted down one unit but was about even when I put the local stuff together with offshore. It definetly could have been a better week but shit happens. The biggest thing I learned is to keep with instinct and have patience. Hunt and myself loved that Florida over but got discouraged when it went to 58 after opening at 52. Patience paid off and it slipped back to 55 and that was playable. I can't complain after three weeks being on pace for a solid season. I have left some money out there though and its time to tie up the loose ends and keep the ball rolling into conference play.
Washington @ UCLA
Well, the Bruins sure stink-bombed one last week didn't they? I liked the game early in week but just felt weird about it. It makes no sense for Utah to win 44-6 but this is college football. Anything can happen on any given day. I still regard the Bruins pretty highly although not top-10 highly anymoe. Just a very good team that couldn't do anything right last week. The stats for the game were basically the same. Yes, it got closer in garbage time but not an overwhelming difference. Once it rained, it pourd on UCLA. Turnovers and penalties killed them. The six points is not reflective of the offense either.
Washington had a huge game at home against the Buckeyes. Despite some great play at times from Jake Locker he made the errors you would expect from a youngster against great defense. Washington showed some chinks in their defense as well in the second half. It has to be tough for the young Huskies to have been driving up 7-3 to start the 2nd half and then get blitzed by 24 consecutive points. They got humbled by the OSU team.
This is a classic over-reaction to a game early move on a line. It opened up 9 and when I played it last night was at 5. It stands at 5.5 currently. UCLA simply needs to avoid turnovers and run it down UW's throats. They ran well last week but had to play catch-up all second half. Before the games last week I think we would have seen a line in the 10 range. Well, it basically was at open but the push has put it under 7 which makes it a play for me. Motivated Bruin team against a Husky team perhaps in an emotional letdown. UCLA 31-17
UCLA -5 -110 2 units
Washington +6 -110 2 units
(I had to hedge here with the injury issues. Will take loss of juice or hopefully push on one)
Kentucky @ Arkansas
Both teams played huge rivalry games at home last week. Both games came down to basically a final play/drive. Kentucky won while Arkansas saw a valiant comeback wasted. I know that many will point out that these could be letdown spots here. I totally understand. Teams can react in so many different ways but you have to go on gut, instinct and the feel you get from the teams.
We know what Arkansas is all about. They are gonna use Felix and D-Mac as much as possible and try and wear teams down. What we have learned a lot of so far this year is the pass defense is very poor. I think the comeback and subsequent last minute loss took a lot out of this team. Thats what I have gathered so far and my gut tells me as much. They were getting stomped. They gave up 330 to Parker-Wilson and almost 5.0 yards per carry. Those are ominous signs entering this week..
Kentucky, this is a team I wanted to hit against UL but never touched because I got "scared" of the line. Thats what I said earlier in the thread about sticking with your gut. Great win late in a very entertaining game. Woodson was terrific as was the whole offense. They "held" UL to 34 points. Not too bad of a feat in itself. I think that win just elevates this team. I don't see a letdown here at all. I think this team is going to win a game it shouldn't down the stretch and perhaps really mess up this SEC race.
This game, the line dictates that Arkansas would be favored at Kentucky. I personally would have UK by 3-4 at home and thats a 10-11 point swing. I just don't see it. I think Knetucky has a great shot of winning staright up here. Yes, Jones/D-Mac will cause problems but UK is simply too good on offense and should score at will. Kentucky wins on a late FG 36-34.
Kentucky +7 -110 2 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin
Iowa lost a rivalry game last week to the Cyclones. It was quite the ugly loss in fact. This team had high hopes entering the season due to an easy Big-10 schedule but cannot be happy with how the team is rounding into shape so far. Ioas St is horrible and its not like they did anything impressive to win here. Wisconsin meanwhile, didn't seem to interested on defense in the first half against the Citadel but played much better in the 2nd half.
How I see game playing out. Wisconsin offense should be very efficient. Iowa has a solid defense but not dominating. I think the Wisky defense will limit this offensively challenged at times Hawkeye squad. I didn't think I would get a TD spread here but will gladly play it. Wisky 27-10...
Wisky -7 -110 2 units
Penn St @ Michigan
I will go into this game in much more detail throughout the week. I figured line would be higher obviously. The x-factor is UM is going to play better defense against pocket passers. At the same point this is the first good to great defense UM has faced. Almost a decade of frustration is built up for PSU. I think it could be tight early but PSU pulls away in second half. More to come on this game...Penn St 24-13
Penn St -3 -110 5 units
(disclaimer...Mallett starts I still love this as a top play...Henne starts but isn't 100 percent still really like it...Henne starts and looks great in practice all week I will hedge off 50-60 percent of this play)
East Carolina @ West Virginia
I was hoping this line would pick up some steam and get back towards 27 but it doesn't look like that will be possible. Its pretty simple with West Virginia. They run the ball well(duh). Some teams in the country can control them slightly. I think ECU is that type of team. They certainly did last year and were able to move ball through air. Yes, ECU is a different animal at home rather than away but I think they will be competitive in this game. Its my simply philosophy with WVU. Take em when they play teams that are bad against run and fade em the other way. Its simple, yet effective. WVU 38-21...
East Carolina +24.5 -110 1 unit
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
This line got driven up right away after finally opening and has settled into a comfortable spot. I intially did not like this game but after talking with a few guys and diving into things quite a bit I certainly do like it a lot. Before the season I thought that Okie St would be a team like Missouri. Great offense and bad defense. Well, they have been maddeningly inconsistent and this is a team in turmoil now. Who the hell knows what is up with Bobby Reid, a very good QB. He isn't starting it looks liek Saturday. They also have injuries on the o-line and that will not help matters. Yes it is a conference home game and a tough venue but I think OSU is turning into a wrecked team and will be a good fade for the rest of the season..Texas Tech 49-28
Texas Tech -5.5 -110 4 units
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Was waiting for the line to hit ten..that was my max number on this game..small bet...Will discuss more tomorrow morning
Michigan St -10 -109 1 unit
Very interesting week to say the least. I ended up hammering Texas Tech as STEED posted the rest of the play for me right before gametime. I also played a bit more on Hawaii and Florida over so I posted down one unit but was about even when I put the local stuff together with offshore. It definetly could have been a better week but shit happens. The biggest thing I learned is to keep with instinct and have patience. Hunt and myself loved that Florida over but got discouraged when it went to 58 after opening at 52. Patience paid off and it slipped back to 55 and that was playable. I can't complain after three weeks being on pace for a solid season. I have left some money out there though and its time to tie up the loose ends and keep the ball rolling into conference play.
Washington @ UCLA
Well, the Bruins sure stink-bombed one last week didn't they? I liked the game early in week but just felt weird about it. It makes no sense for Utah to win 44-6 but this is college football. Anything can happen on any given day. I still regard the Bruins pretty highly although not top-10 highly anymoe. Just a very good team that couldn't do anything right last week. The stats for the game were basically the same. Yes, it got closer in garbage time but not an overwhelming difference. Once it rained, it pourd on UCLA. Turnovers and penalties killed them. The six points is not reflective of the offense either.
Washington had a huge game at home against the Buckeyes. Despite some great play at times from Jake Locker he made the errors you would expect from a youngster against great defense. Washington showed some chinks in their defense as well in the second half. It has to be tough for the young Huskies to have been driving up 7-3 to start the 2nd half and then get blitzed by 24 consecutive points. They got humbled by the OSU team.
This is a classic over-reaction to a game early move on a line. It opened up 9 and when I played it last night was at 5. It stands at 5.5 currently. UCLA simply needs to avoid turnovers and run it down UW's throats. They ran well last week but had to play catch-up all second half. Before the games last week I think we would have seen a line in the 10 range. Well, it basically was at open but the push has put it under 7 which makes it a play for me. Motivated Bruin team against a Husky team perhaps in an emotional letdown. UCLA 31-17
UCLA -5 -110 2 units
Washington +6 -110 2 units
(I had to hedge here with the injury issues. Will take loss of juice or hopefully push on one)
Kentucky @ Arkansas
Both teams played huge rivalry games at home last week. Both games came down to basically a final play/drive. Kentucky won while Arkansas saw a valiant comeback wasted. I know that many will point out that these could be letdown spots here. I totally understand. Teams can react in so many different ways but you have to go on gut, instinct and the feel you get from the teams.
We know what Arkansas is all about. They are gonna use Felix and D-Mac as much as possible and try and wear teams down. What we have learned a lot of so far this year is the pass defense is very poor. I think the comeback and subsequent last minute loss took a lot out of this team. Thats what I have gathered so far and my gut tells me as much. They were getting stomped. They gave up 330 to Parker-Wilson and almost 5.0 yards per carry. Those are ominous signs entering this week..
Kentucky, this is a team I wanted to hit against UL but never touched because I got "scared" of the line. Thats what I said earlier in the thread about sticking with your gut. Great win late in a very entertaining game. Woodson was terrific as was the whole offense. They "held" UL to 34 points. Not too bad of a feat in itself. I think that win just elevates this team. I don't see a letdown here at all. I think this team is going to win a game it shouldn't down the stretch and perhaps really mess up this SEC race.
This game, the line dictates that Arkansas would be favored at Kentucky. I personally would have UK by 3-4 at home and thats a 10-11 point swing. I just don't see it. I think Knetucky has a great shot of winning staright up here. Yes, Jones/D-Mac will cause problems but UK is simply too good on offense and should score at will. Kentucky wins on a late FG 36-34.
Kentucky +7 -110 2 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin
Iowa lost a rivalry game last week to the Cyclones. It was quite the ugly loss in fact. This team had high hopes entering the season due to an easy Big-10 schedule but cannot be happy with how the team is rounding into shape so far. Ioas St is horrible and its not like they did anything impressive to win here. Wisconsin meanwhile, didn't seem to interested on defense in the first half against the Citadel but played much better in the 2nd half.
How I see game playing out. Wisconsin offense should be very efficient. Iowa has a solid defense but not dominating. I think the Wisky defense will limit this offensively challenged at times Hawkeye squad. I didn't think I would get a TD spread here but will gladly play it. Wisky 27-10...
Wisky -7 -110 2 units
Penn St @ Michigan
I will go into this game in much more detail throughout the week. I figured line would be higher obviously. The x-factor is UM is going to play better defense against pocket passers. At the same point this is the first good to great defense UM has faced. Almost a decade of frustration is built up for PSU. I think it could be tight early but PSU pulls away in second half. More to come on this game...Penn St 24-13
Penn St -3 -110 5 units
(disclaimer...Mallett starts I still love this as a top play...Henne starts but isn't 100 percent still really like it...Henne starts and looks great in practice all week I will hedge off 50-60 percent of this play)
East Carolina @ West Virginia
I was hoping this line would pick up some steam and get back towards 27 but it doesn't look like that will be possible. Its pretty simple with West Virginia. They run the ball well(duh). Some teams in the country can control them slightly. I think ECU is that type of team. They certainly did last year and were able to move ball through air. Yes, ECU is a different animal at home rather than away but I think they will be competitive in this game. Its my simply philosophy with WVU. Take em when they play teams that are bad against run and fade em the other way. Its simple, yet effective. WVU 38-21...
East Carolina +24.5 -110 1 unit
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
This line got driven up right away after finally opening and has settled into a comfortable spot. I intially did not like this game but after talking with a few guys and diving into things quite a bit I certainly do like it a lot. Before the season I thought that Okie St would be a team like Missouri. Great offense and bad defense. Well, they have been maddeningly inconsistent and this is a team in turmoil now. Who the hell knows what is up with Bobby Reid, a very good QB. He isn't starting it looks liek Saturday. They also have injuries on the o-line and that will not help matters. Yes it is a conference home game and a tough venue but I think OSU is turning into a wrecked team and will be a good fade for the rest of the season..Texas Tech 49-28
Texas Tech -5.5 -110 4 units
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Was waiting for the line to hit ten..that was my max number on this game..small bet...Will discuss more tomorrow morning
Michigan St -10 -109 1 unit
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