Saturday, October 7th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Not too bad of a week this week. Honestly a bit more than I expected to the good. Feel almost SMODODish on that Illinois call...lol. Miami Florida was a dissapointment indeed.

Week 1: 12-17-1 (2.20)
Week 2: 11-4-0 +6.74
Week 3: 16-3-1 +17.67
Week 4: 8-6-1 +4.65
Week 5: 9-5-1 +6.57
Overall: 56-35-4 +33.70 Units :)


Heres whats locked in for next week as those tricky fucks at Pinny decide to release them way early.

TCU Pk -105 (Thursday Night)
TCU ML +123 (Thursday Night)
Miami -13.5 -110
Texas AM -1 -107
Michigan State +17 -102
Oregon +7 -104
Oklahoma +7 -105
Michigan State +15 -105
Pittsburgh -7 -104
Hawaii -11 -108 (3 units)
Oklahoma St -2.5 -109
Kentucky +4.5 -104
LSU +1 -108(2 units)
Maryland +14 -112 (2 units)
Texas -3.5 -105
Tennessee -2.5 -101
Purdue +10 -107
Wisky 2ND half -9.5 -126
Purdue 2ND half +4 -112
Auburn 2ND half -7.5 -115 (3 units)
Kentucky +5 -110(with local...I know line is 3 now)
Mind you, I could hedge off any of these as wekk progresses. Discusion will start in the morning and plays added as the lines come up.

All insight welcome as always.:cheers:
 
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Hey man thanks for the insight this week.

I'm feeling the Oregon play a lot. I'll see how the week progresses but this one will be a lot like the Oklahoma game in terms of the intensity and score.
 
Alright...back to work on the card this week. Pinny kinda suprised us with introducing the lines Saturday night. Luckily caught em right before I went to bed. Its conference play time. This is a whole different ballgame. Tread carefully all month fellas.

Wow, I am quite glad I got this Hurricane line so early. Obviously the porous Cane effort Saturday night at the Orange Bowl helped us get this soft opening line.

Looks like a lot of us including myself were way off on the Houston-Miami affair. Shit happens. But, we always learn a few things.

First, the Miami defense did very well, especially in the second half. Thats a potent Cougar attack they faced. For Kolb and Co. to only put up 13...and that was by early 3rd stanza..that says something.

Second, the key was Miami got the WIN. Does this sound stupid? It may..but think about it. If they had lost, this was gonna be a helluva week down there. A firing perhaps. The whole teams mindset would be shot. Now, they can take a small dose of confidence away from that game and get back to Hurricane football.

Its helps they are facing a tarheels squad that is dreadful. I have a feeling that when they play Duke it will be 0-0 entering the third OT(LOL). This team is pitiful. Thye looked okay against RU in the opener and even played well against VT for almost a half. Its been downhill since. They were lucky to beat the Paladins.

The 13.5 spread is a joke. I honestly cannot believe that I didn't hit this bigger. I am upset with myself but I was a bit thrown off with the early lines coming out so early.. I think this is safe up to 3 TD's though.

Hurricanes 37-10
 
Miami's offense is comparable to Temple, Buffalo, etc. Wright is a bad QB who is over thinking everything too much right now. I think they SHOULD win by 35. However, Miami couldn't put up 35 against Temple. So they'll need a shut out to cover.
 
with you on oklahoma and MSU chief...

both are getting way too many for rivalry games, and you know trannon barely played last game and Crick will get the brunt of the carries this week and I like that because I think he is better than Ringer..Stanton will be up for this one, he has made too much money so far.

looking at LSU first half and louisville first half too.
 
I like TCU. They're not as good as people thought they were but not as bad as people think they are now. They lost to an underrated BYU team.

I dunno about A&M -1. Sure KU is nothing to write home about but the Aggie nation has just about had it with Fran at this point. Does A&M answer the bell? I don't think so and I think the downward spiral has begun again in College Station. Tech is their big rival now (since UT is light years ahead of them at this point) and this was a crushing loss for them. Think MSU last week coming out flat against Illinois. Maybe I'm wrong and they come out like gangbusters but theres enough of a chance that they'll lay another egg that I wouldn't put money on the Ags. Oh yeah, and their defense is still terrible. If you like numbers A&M is 3-9 SU under Fran in Big 12 road games and before this year they were 3-12 ATS in all road games under Fran.

I'm a Longhorn but I agree that 7 points is a lot to give up in a rivalry game. These teams aren't as mismatched as it seems.

This Oregon line keeps dropping and if it drops anymore I'm thinking about taking Cal. At what point do you think the value shifts to Cal? Personally, I think this could be a 10 point Cal win. They've been tearing teams apart and the two times I've watched Oregon (Fresno State and OU) I saw their run defense get torn apart. 154 yards for Wright and 211 for Peterson. Lynch ain't too shabby and this is a home game for a surging Cal team.
 
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Updated plays up top..another unit on Sparty..added Hawaii as a 3 unit play and Panthers as well.

Full analysis of all throughout day and evening:cheers:
 
Get em BAR...

Where's the Hawaii bet comming from? That's a very big play for you and I think your money thus far on them this season... well I remember UL/Miami and Michy/ND.
 
I will get into it more later today...

Other than the Miami-Houston one last week I think my record on big plays is pretty awesome. Its something like 7-3 before the game last night on 2 and 3 unit plays plus one was a 4 unit overall w/UM ML
 
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Well...absolutely getting crushed in college football this week. Down over 5 units and frankly this is the week or two that seems to happen every OCT for me. I am half tempted to go the other way on all my weekend plays but won't.

Utah has looked like garbage all year but much credit to them tonight. TCU is just bigger garbage. Congrats to Utes backers.

Fade away..hehe
 
btw...Imma about to get tanked..so my write-ups tonight will contain 36% more spelling errors and 12% more general confusion
 
GL man... Lookin forward to NBA, we gonna do our thang over there?
 
No doubt on that, lol... We run shit in NBA, map out plays weeks in advance and shit like we did last year lol... Remember when we got Spurs as a dog at Phoenix without Nash?? So beautiful lol
 
Killa said:
No doubt on that, lol... We run shit in NBA, map out plays weeks in advance and shit like we did last year lol... Remember when we got Spurs as a dog at Phoenix without Nash?? So beautiful lol
Click to expand...

shit..we planed that on a Sunday night..Spurs played at LAL on a Tuesday..we hit that..and came back huge on a Thursday night..it was Sexy as hell indeed:cheers:
 
You're only up +33 UNITS on the season?? Damn, you suck!!
evillol.gif


Give 'em hell this weekend, Big Al, and I hope you're not having a hang over this morning!
beer.gif
 
Added a few to top. Heres some brief discussion and much more later...Slept to long last night..hehe
 
Michigan St @ Michigan

Obvious rivalry game. Its also a revenge game for MSU. The Spartans should be unbeaten right now but stand at 3-2 because they are the Spartans. They are gonna fight hard as hell in this one. This is basically the season for them. Drew Stanton has had 2 heartbreaking losses to Big Blue and I expect a helluva game from him. Now, Michigan defense is incredibble and they are versatile on offense but State will do just fine IMO. I would have made this line more 10-12 honestly. Michigan St offense can move ball against any team in country. They will do enough oif that. Sparty has been talking shit in papers this week so no doubt UM is ready but this will be a war where UM pulls away late

Michigan 34-24
 
Maryland-Georgia Tech

Tech is the same kind of school as Michigan State. They cannot handle prosperity. What an overeaction by the linesmakers on this line. I am not a huge Terp fan but they can move ball better than previous campaigns and I see a major letdown spot here for GT. Two weeks ago this line is 5-6 points less IMO. I think Maryland will have a chance to win this on field. i really do. GT is still a garbage club IMO. They beat a overated team and now they are best thing since sliced bread. I'll gladly take 2 TD's here.
 
The Okie State pick is mostly a Tail of Denfulks(aka SoonerBS). I likec the game but his and JimmyD's thoughts put me over top on that one.
 
Pitt @ Syracuse

Nice little recovery year for Cuse. They look better than they are though due to competition. Illinois had Brasic starting then...so don't judge that as a good win. Wyoming had to travel to UVA..back home for a game and right to East Coast again. The funny thing is they should have won that game too. Orange is a better squad but Pitt is mightily improved. The loss to MSU was no accident. That Spartan offense just rolled over them.

Not a big fan of laying a TD on road but I think Palko and the boys get out early and win 31-16 or so.
 
Note that I have went other way and bet Texas at 3.5..leaving a nice little middle opportunity.

Also added Tennessee.

May hedge off Pitt...furiously looking now.
 
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