Saturday NBA Thoughts

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Interesting card:

Miami makes the short trip to Orlando:

I doubt Wade plays and Posey should return from the 1 gm suspension . Orlando has proved it needs Turkoglu to have any offense though Hill might be limited. I think we will have a total of something like 183 and Orlando should be at least -9 here... we have -11 and 176.5(was I off!!)...Basically with everyone missing the point about how poor Miami is w/o Wade they are creating value in Orlando. Orlando when all was well and healthy went into Miami laying -1 and won SU which would have put them about -8 in Orl at that time and Wade was playing!!. So how far off is -11 w/o Wade...it sreally where it should be the only question is ORL's overall level of play. Since then they have dropped off but alot of that had to do with Turkoglu's absence IMO. I think last nite in Wash was a great confidence booster and Miami will be hard pressed to duplicate that effort again here. They dont dont have much depth and they needed a career nite from Jason Williams in Chi to keep that from getting early. NJ is not better then Orl at this point and they had a 21-0 RUN against them in Miami's house!!!!!! They were getting crushed by Suns at home before they crawled back in the game and same atWash w/o Wade....I guess 1st Q might be the best avenue.....just check the games w/o Wade ...

A great pass the buck comment:

"In the time between the walk to the locker room and the walk back to the court, I don't know how it happened," centre Alonzo Mourning said. "You'd have to ask some of my teammates."




Charlotte off OT win vs LAL travels to Indy:

Bobcats rough spot playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT sessions with LAL at home. A team missing key players Knight and May could really struggle in such a spot. May's ankle was still sore so he didnt return maybe he does here. Char really only used Carroll and D.Anderson off the bench. Felton and Okefor played over 50minutes each (56 & 51 respectively). Primo Brezec played only 11 minutes so I am thinking he left with an injury??

"I'm hurting, no question," Felton said. "But this was one of the best games in history. I'm glad I was a part of it."

Seems that Indy opened at -11 looks somewhat high but looking for a total...186? Under Charlotte team ?? Keep in mind Char plays well in the past vs Indy 7-1 ATS I believe.. we have a 188 total...

Minny travels to NJ (played+3 -112)

Both playing 4th in 5. However NJ had to actually play where as Minny coasted. Only 2 Wolves played 31 minutes and KG was actually 4 of 15. NJ has struggled on backends going 1-5 SU. So for all the obvious reasons like Minny here....NJ trio played 38 minutes each....take the dogged West vs the East...Situation calls for under based on my research done before Minny last backend game on the road in Tor which broke the streak of unders...

Tor travels to Memphis:

Like Grizz with a new coach , outlook and 2 days rest against Tor playing on a backend having to travel down to Mem...lotta miles inbewteen. Raps seem to still be playing some uptempo ball and allow 107 on backends...over please 197!

Cle travels to Chi:

Bulls 4th in 5 but cavs only 3rd in 4. Bulls looking for revenge and this line seems high but that probably makes Bulls valueable. Would expect a total of around 191....we have 190.....The big knock is Cle and LeBron struggling on backends...

Wash travels to Milw:

Personally I feel that Wash is the better team and both are playing 4th in 5. So I do think Wash as is +3 is a bit high..now that I have looked at it though the fact Wash bench is real thin is something that hurts them. The total is high but you have to expect it to be close to that range...neither team has much of a bench and Jamison and Arenas played 46 minutes..Mo Williams 44 minutes..interesting game as MILW stunk but with Redd out of the picture seemed to rally....after looking at it again would lean Milw in this spot...

NO travels to Dal:

Probably expect a team Under for NO here.....huge line and 4th in 5 nites for the dog....obvious complete mismatch....Dallas 1st Q or 1st H..??

Port @ Utah

Blazers fourth in 5 and Utah on rest. Thinking Utah here after an ugly loss....should see low scoring game...but the total is tight....


Golden State @ Sac

Well the Kings let me down in LAC so no interest in them really....even though they are home....probably an over....Though GS is only 1-7 SU on backends and thin bench with Ellis Out...Kings more desperate...get huge markup for the now defunct Arco advantage...

Hate having to wait ofr team totals and Player props!
 
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couldnt post this is my Saturday Discussion that I started 3 hours ago, huh?
 
Feel free to cut and paste...I am just tired and lazy....takes me forever to scroll through the games and make commnst at this time...BOL
 
Just the one for now...

Timberwolves +3 -112 (5units) ML+120 (2units)

As I said last nite just keeping this simple. Minny is the better team and while they played last nite they coasted where as NJ had to overcome a halftime defecit.

Looking at :
Over Orlando team (94?)
Under Charlotte team (88.5) is a definite play
Under 188 -112 NJN
Over 196.5 -116 memphis
Under NO team (82.5?)
 
NCAAB

West Virginia +1 -112 (4units) Win +4.00
2nd Half HEDGE UCONN -1.5 -125 (1u) L -1.25

Simply put the Huskies have not traveled all season. Whne it gets this late in the season I think that is an extreme disadvantage. Especially factoring the easy UConn schedule and large group of inexperienced players.

Nebraska -2 -109 (3units) Win +3.00

Think that Miami will continue to struggle w/o King and Nebraska despite no road wins persay has played well in its travel games..

Oregon State +8.5 -110 (2units) Win +2 ML +331 (1/2u)-0.25

Looking for the dog to hang around in rivalry game...Ore St has won at home past few...they just hung with LSU as well...

Over 149 -105 Zaga / Nevada (2units)Win +2.00(liked Nevada!)

Temple +12 -104 (2units) ML +620 (1/4u)

One of the biggest rivalries..Big 5 basketball....

Houston -118 (2units) & Over 146-105 (2units)

Houston has shown its inability to play on the road but I think at home they are a different animal. Could be abit of a flat spot for UNLV after winning in TT stopping history momentarily for Coach Knight

1st H:
Kansas -14.5 -111 (2u)
LB State -7 -113 (2u)

Real pissed I passed on Marshall!!!!! Though 3-0 to start banging my best bets is helpful...
 
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Really it blows me away that you are able to do all of this. I think it's a part time job just keeping track of the NBA. You're a machine.
 
great insight SportsNut, I had the same feeling looking at the 197 total in Memphis. First, this isn't Fratello basketball any more, and Toronto lack beef and D, I just don't see this one as a slow paced game. However, it is a rather correctly set number if you look at it, last 7 meetings between these teams went well under this number. This is a different game and I am a situational bettor not a trend bettor, so I'm seriously considering this one.


Utah should roll tonight, but considering this might be a low scoring game, I'm not tempted to takem ATS. I like the Bulls tonight and would pound it if Hinrich was healthy, now hesitating a bit. I liked Milwaukee when the line opened since I believe this might be a good letdown spot for the Wizards, but the more I think about it more I realize the visitors are the better team here, and from a matchup point of view I would take them over the Bucks, so no play here.

-16,5 in Dallas, too big number, again a coin toss, too many factors in the last q to make this a play. GL :shake: :cheers:
 
This is always the time of year I hate posting about games cause I feel repetitive. its like the grind part of teh season where it seems liek everyone is playing everyday or everyother day and the comments just mirror themselves..

Anyway, I was hoping for something below 195 around 193 for this Memphis total. Hopefully we get some downward movement...I might just play Memphis team over instead...not much value in that either though...I agree with ya though this is the *NEW* Memphis Grizzlies past meetings from here on should be thrown out the window...

Off the top of my head I was thinking Portland would be in that 83-88 range offesnively and Utah near 100....Utah 1st Q or 1st Half maybe...

I am with you thinking Wash are the better team what has changed my mind some is the fact Milw is a little more the deeper team. Was relies heavily on Jamison , Arenas and Butler ...the bench minutes are basically 15-20 minutes for Daniels and Hayes (playing the 2/3 spots). Were as Milw has 5 0r 6 contributors Redd , Mo Williams , C.Bell , Patterson , Bogut , Villanueva...

So that factored with Jamison typically disappearing backends I like Milw upon further review....

I agree with Hinrich somewhat less then 100% it makes one rethink Chi but I cant take Cle on the road in a backend either...

Woul only get involved in certain ways with that DAL game...

BOL!

And JPicks you give me to much credit...alot this is off the cuff so to speak...I always say I am blessed with a great memory this is just part of my everyday thinking...wht happened no NY for NYE's??
 
No New York. I was thinking it was going to hapen, but it would have been a rollercoaster of a 72 hours. Fly across the county, meet the girlfriend's parents, meet all of her friends, party for New Years in Manhatten and then catch a flight at 7 am on New Years day. I'm just not young enough to do that kind of stuff anymore. Would have been a blast, but maybe next year. GL with your plays today.
 
Player Props :

KG over 22 -114 (2units)

Off Season low 10 pts in only 31 minutes...thinking bounce back...he has scored 22.2 last 6 in NJ....on no rest he avgs 23.6 ppg this season...but only 21.1on the road...you can basically count on him to get at least 15 shots a nite...look at NJ's roster who is covering KG..Mikki Moore and who else?? Josh Boone..??

Under Ben Gordon 22 -117 (1unit)NO PLAY with Hinrichs status ??

I realize Ben has equaled or topped this number seven straight but the Cavs are his COOLER IMO...last 5 meetings 2 , 16 ,17, 22 ,2 ... ,21,21 ,5 ,21 throughout his career...paging Larry Hughes...Home 21.6 and backends 23.4ppg


Thinking about KG total rebounds over11.5 1-24 as well...not muc standing out as these are not the strongest
 
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JPicks said:
No New York. I was thinking it was going to hapen, but it would have been a rollercoaster of a 72 hours. Fly across the county, meet the girlfriend's parents, meet all of her friends, party for New Years in Manhatten and then catch a flight at 7 am on New Years day. I'm just not young enough to do that kind of stuff anymore. Would have been a blast, but maybe next year. GL with your plays today.

thats a hectic schedule...who would want to flyout at 7AM on New Years Day thats still partytime here in NYC(and sure most places)...though I am bit older at 32 and not exactly the party animal(s) my friends still are I was walking out of Crobar at about 7AM last year....so I am picturing myself then having to fly cross coumtry in that shape...barf bag please...

If you ever do make the trip here let me know...
 
-Orlando should hold some value, and yes Torkoglu seems to be the make or break player.
-I was interested in Charlotte,+11 looks nice. You wonder if they are wore out? G.Wallace was fouled out early.
-Glad to see your output on Minny, that was actually the first game spread that looked hot to me.
-Agree on Dallas call, I played 5 units on the 1q before reading this thread!
-Kind of like Portland and the points.

Good Luck sports and nice layout.
 
MX_259 said:
-Orlando should hold some value, and yes Torkoglu seems to be the make or break player.
-I was interested in Charlotte,+11 looks nice. You wonder if they are wore out? G.Wallace was fouled out early.
-Glad to see your output on Minny, that was actually the first game spread that looked hot to me.
-Agree on Dallas call, I played 5 units on the 1q before reading this thread!
-Kind of like Portland and the points.

Good Luck sports and nice layout.


Hoping for Orlando to settle in at -10..its out there but I want that to be the price across the board...

From that comment I posted in my original post sure seems like fatigue could play a role for Char...50+ minutes and 3 OTs for Okefor and felton. May would be huge here....dont think I am touching a side because other then fatigue it would be a Char play...

Ilike dallas just cant lay -5.5 for the 1st Q maybe -9 1st H for me...seems like much better value...

Portland game is kinda tough I just feel they lack the size and Utah has the rest advantage......
 
SportsNut said:
If you ever do make the trip here let me know...

Ya I was planning on drinking all the way to the airport. Follow that up with work on Tuesday and I'm really not interested.

I'll definitely look you up when I make it out there next spring. Trying to work somthing out for the first month of baseball season. You, Killa, and I could all roll over to a Yankee game. It'd be good times.
 
7:00 PM

Magic -10 -105 (4units)
Simply put the Miami Heat w/o Wade(& Shaq) have almost nothing but aging veterans. Heat playing 4th in 6 and Orlando 3rd in 4. Quoting BetCrimes the DOG has covered 11 straight games in Orlando matchups....great spot to end that run. Orl goes about 9/10 deep while Miami is closer to 8...just to put this in context New Jersey was -3 in Miaimi which means you would have expected -9 if they played in NJ..so -10/-11 makes sense then...Miami has struggled to score vs Wash , Pho and NJ w/o Wade why would it change here..

Under 188 -102 Indiana (unit)
Charlotte has struggled offensively on the road and historically in Indaina. factor in fatugue against a defense allowing just 41% last 5 from the floor...biggest concern is if Indy puts up 105 here

1st Quarters :
Magic -3.5 -112 (2units)
Pacers -3.5 -108 (2units)

Lean: Und 49 -113 Indy

1st Half:
Over 89.5 -111 Orl(unit)
Under 97 -102 Indy (unit)
 
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Agree, strongly with Garnett prop and Orlando play.

-K.G. should have a big night, who will guard him? Is a very good question. Coming of a 10 point game only creates the probability of a bounce back game.

-Orlando should open this game up fast, I like the favor the first quarter play and also like the 1st half and game spread. Miami has been able to somewhat keep themselves in the game during the 1st half, I think they should slip away early (if Wade is really not playing, I didn't look into it myself but take your word) and also Orlando coming of it's dissapointing loss to Washington should have them motivated to come out here and play some aggresive ball right at the tip off.
 
Team Totals : Pinnacle not showing them?

Under 94.5 -120 NJ (2units)
Under 89 -125 Charlotte (3units)
Under 98 -120 Bulls (unit)
 
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7:30 & 8 PM's

Timberwolves +3 -112 (5units) ML+120 (2units)

Said it all already.

Over 196 -110 Memphis (2units)
Over 100.5 +101 1st H (2units)

Last 7 for Tor allowed 96 to 115 with al but two above 100pts but have also socred at least 97 in that stretch. memphis new coach , new era but 6 straight opponents above 100pts and they managed at least 96 in those.
 
8:30 PM's

Dallas Mavs -9.5 -105 (3units)

Hornets off a SU win just dont have the manpower IMO...

Under 190 -105 Chicago (2units)

Hinrich runs the Offense and is doubtful....Cavs buckling down on D. Chi allowing 90 ppg at home. Cavs have scored just 84 on backends. It is LeBrons BDay here though...

Bucks -4 -110 (3units)

just think the situation favors them here.....

1st Quarters :
Wolves +111 ML (unit)
Cavs +138 ML (unit)
Bucks -1.5 -112 (4units)

1st H :
under 97 -112 Chicago (unit)
Over 112 -125 Milw (2units)
 
For the Portland / Utah game it somewhat simple Blazers either win SU or Lose spreads just dont matter!! Blazers have 1 ATS cover that wasnt a SU win a 2 pt home loss vs ORL catching 4......

Utah in the better spot IMO here with some rest off an embarassing loss and Sloan challenging his team...

Jazz -11 -109 (3units)
1st Q -3.5 -108 (2units)

My big concern is the spread is maybe a little fat DUE to the 4th in 5 spot
 
Hey SN...Thoughts on the Dal/NOK 2H total ? I have U181. It's been a tail of 2 quarters so far. I'm thinking about hedging a little off...
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Hey SN...Thoughts on the Dal/NOK 2H total ? I have U181. It's been a tail of 2 quarters so far. I'm thinking about hedging a little off...

I would ride out its your call obviously. Basically would have expected a high scoring 1st quarter in this one. Really this looks like it will play out just like the Miami-Orlando game.....

High scoring 1st and then as the dog fades so does the offense...I am playing the 2nd H under 88..
 
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