Saturday Discussion Thread

Let them fuck around and make nats dogs again, I won’t pass again. You gotta be out your mind to be laying chalk w Phillies against these guys. Nats are flat out playing better ball than them (whether the pen blows game 1 or not!). Ppl who understand bases and don’t fudge records with pretend 25 unit chase bets realize laying -170 with Phillies was terrible whether they win or lose!! If they don’t give nats plus money I’ll def be interested in Gore k prop. Another guy with good stuff who walks too many but again Phillies will swing at all kinds of trash out of the zone!
 
I don’t know if Lorenzen has the stuff to be able to see the same lineup b2b starts and pitch well? If he could do it vs anyone it probably these loser white Sox! I just can’t understand how cease laying -150s? He hasn’t been very good, tigers just ran him from last start in 4 innings. Tigers ate better than the chisox yet perception has the odds all out of whack. I don’t even know if anyone other than the books still think cws is good?
 
Who the hell is Bryan woo? That who pitching for seattle? I thought we were gonna get fantastic pitching matchups all series but I dunno anything bout this kid. I’ll have to read some scouting reports and look at his pitches, hopefully I can find something worthwhile. Heaney should punch out a lot of mariners.
 
Please let them come too low with my guy Eury vs A’s! This gonna be a strikeout clinic all weekend I believe!
 
I passed on o’s in game one even tho that line felt redic high, I really don’t understand why they being lined like this vs giants but I’ll almost for sure take the plus money with bradish!
 
I made a late night trip to Illinios for this one Boys!!

Eury perez ov 5.5 k’s -120

Didn’t want to wait for this cause I’d be shocked if the juice didn’t rocket, I kinda thought they might hang 6,5 here and I woulda def considered it. Like I said I fully expect a strike out fest this whole series. This a bad spot against nasty pitchers for a young struggling A’s team. I’m not great at knowing where these will move sometimes I can only go off my numbers and I think this a gift.
 
Berrios will probably bite me in the ass but I dunno how ya don’t play him to punch out 5 the way Mets swinging the bats? Only -105 also? Dude has fanned 5+ in 8 of 11 starts! Dunno where the fuck they came up with this number? Did they not just see freaking Bassitt punch out 8? Granted he more consistent but he don’t have the swing and miss stuff berrios has.
 
Beware of strider 2mRfo, I know he a beast but far as I can tell he has never pitched in zona. Some guys struggle with grip there, you never really know till they pitch there how it will go. He could be fine but I wouldn’t be laying freaking -200 when snakes playing some great ball, and I’m sure his k’s be 8.5, he usually hits that I’d just take a wait and see approach at this venue.

Nevermind I was wrong, he has pitched on e here and once at coors and he wasn’t great at either place. I think he better this year but if it a grip issue in the dry air that don’t change. He didn’t get thru 5 at either place and walked quite a few. Just be careful, the juice too high and while normally I wouldn’t fault anyone for playing his k’s at 8.5 I would pass here.
 
Wow. They did make Phillies favs again, they smoking crack. Nats have the better starter and believe it or not they taking way better at bats than all the talented dudes in Phillies lineup who flailing at everything, I’m sure they pressing, trying harder doesn’t work in baseball! The Celtics should play baseball since they couldn’t be bothered to try hard! Nats have one the highest batting averages in the league and they better against lefties. Stram been ok but dude still a converted reliever and I think gore gonna make Philly look bad. Nats have a combined .295 batting avg against lhp! Who the hell saw that coming? Doesn’t matter what ya thought, adjust or look dumb!
 
Hell strahm hasn’t even Started and pitched more than a few innings in over a month! I think gore is gonna do a number on these dudes. They don’t have a k prop up for him yet, I’d kill for a 5.5 but we see. This one the stranger things I’ve seen, despite being dogs nats Ff is -125, that happens but what really odd is nats Ff +.5 is also -125! Why in gods name wouldn’t you take the half run? Lol
 
I see one out total I like a lot, wasn’t posted yet when I was over there, im not going back out now, hopefully it won’t move much overnight, probably be fine, I’ll get up early and post it after I play it.
 
Man, these Stros pitchers and Stros in general just own laa. Wasn’t sure I wanted to play Javier needing to fan 7 but damn, look all the k’s he has vs this team last 2 years! He had a 14 k performance, he had one game he only pitched 3.2 innings and struck out 10! That every out but 1 by k! He faced them earlier this year, punched out 11 over 6 innings with a swinging strike rate over 20%!! Wasn’t sure when I saw the number, he has only fanned 7+ 3x this year but you almost have to play him over 6.5 I think considering the history vs this team!
 
2daBank said:
Who the hell is Bryan woo? That who pitching for seattle? I thought we were gonna get fantastic pitching matchups all series but I dunno anything bout this kid. I’ll have to read some scouting reports and look at his pitches, hopefully I can find something worthwhile. Heaney should punch out a lot of mariners.
Click to expand...

I can’t find enough about him, he hasn’t pitched past double a, he was raw with a supposedly electric heater and not much else. His double a numbers look promising as they say he developing a slider but this seems early to be called up, he wasn’t projected to see the bigs till ‘24, not having pitched yet in triple a seems risky to skip a step, guys often fall off from double to triple and now he getting thrown in vs a really good hitting rangers lineup. Im def interested in where they put Heaney k prop but I assume it be 6.5 and think I rather just lay the half run for the Ff with rangers, even money for them to beat this kid for 5 innings seems like a great freaking deal quite honestly. If he beats me I can live with it. Rangers Ff -.5 def a play for me.
 
I can’t believe I went back out last night to get the Perez play in and his price ain’t changed, lol. Even worse Medina price got cheaper!! I swear I don’t understand the way some these lines move or don’t! Had I waited the juice be crazy by now or it woulda went up a k !! The good news is I see a few others I didn’t bet yet that I like the way they moving so im gonna give them a few hours and see what happens as ppl wake up. I’ll prob go back across river around 10-11, I’ll post everything I played after that.
 
I know I said bout 11 but I didn’t see anything I had to run over and get right away, I won’t have anything on the 2 earlier games. Think most plays will be the 3 o’clock central and later time slots. Ill prob have everything up by 1:30 or 2
 
Vapster said:
DET +140

PITTS +126

BALT +120

CUBS +145

ARI +1.5 +115
Click to expand...

I have no clue why in gods name they have giants as favs over o’s this series? There no world where giants are even on the same level as O’s let alone being favs over them, freaking nuts. Bradish actually has some nice reverse splits so he shouldn’t have any problem with giants lineup.

I don’t think im betting snakes today but that line is crazy high, can’t blame you at all, that only way I’d play it.
 
Rangers Ff -.5 is absolutely a play for me when I go back. If a kid who by all accounts is still very raw and has never pitched above double a beats me so be it. I think rangers can prob hit a guy with a plus heater and still developing secondary stuff. Then of course there the putrid mariners offense who bottom the league ops vs lhp and fans over 30% the time! Rangers score 2-3 runs I’d think they have the lead after 5.
 
I see they corrected that shit where they had nats Ff +.5 same price as ml, guess I shoulda known that line wouldn’t last, it was really dumb. I like nats Ff ov 1.5 but not sure I like the -155 price tag, I think gore will be good so probably better to go with the Ff ml at -115.
 
It kinda baffling to me those k props hardly moving at all today, most this week they been bouncing around all over the place. The one night I go and grab them early and it was all for naught, lol. I know had I waited they woulda moved!

I think after I got back home sometime late last night I saw Logan Allen at 3.5, I thought surely I had to be seeing things cause that number was really stupid. I still like him at 4.5, the only game I recall he didn’t fan 5 was against these twins but I don’t think that likely to repeat itself considering they strike out a lot! He punching out almost 10 per 9 with a swinging strike rate over 13%, he shouldn’t ever be lower than 5.5 w those numbers!
 
They lining that balry series so wrong, even yesterday if you want to make the case for webb I would listen but it was def too high. When I went over to bet they early k props it was 2-2 and I got o’s even money live! I don’t know much about giants pen but I know balty has one the filthiest groups going out the pen so even money in that spot was insane to me, before I even got back across the river o’s had taken lead and then they marched out 3 relievers 2 of which struck out the side!! Their k to walk ratio and era’s are off the chain! I don’t understand what books missing w them but I say keep it up assholes!
 
2daBank said:
It kinda baffling to me those k props hardly moving at all today, most this week they been bouncing around all over the place. The one night I go and grab them early and it was all for naught, lol. I know had I waited they woulda moved!

I think after I got back home sometime late last night I saw Logan Allen at 3.5, I thought surely I had to be seeing things cause that number was really stupid. I still like him at 4.5, the only game I recall he didn’t fan 5 was against these twins but I don’t think that likely to repeat itself considering they strike out a lot! He punching out almost 10 per 9 with a swinging strike rate over 13%, he shouldn’t ever be lower than 5.5 w those numbers!
Click to expand...
Twins have to be like Top 5 In K's @2daBank ?!
 
I was hoping for a 4.5 on bradish but they hung the right number on him, although with +105 I don’t think over 5.5 a terrible play, I just think taking balty at bout same price the better play. 4.5 wouida been pound town so if you see him get bet down a k grab it, he has sick reverse splits so he should do really well vs all the lefty bats in giants lineup. As of now tho I prefer just playing o’s ml.
 
Vapster said:
Since you are talking MINN AND Gnts... Guess Which 2 Teams Lead The League In K's...

@2daBank


MLB Stats - MLB Team Strikeouts per Game | TeamRankings.com

MLB strikeouts per game, by team.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com
Click to expand...

I didn’t realize giants were up there, I knew seattle and twins were probably, I woulda guessed Braves been closer to top, they swing and miss a lot, I play lot of k props against atl! Lot against yanks too but I’ve backed off them a little. Usually has a lot to do with how I think a pitcher matches up with a lineup but there def teams I pick on more than others. Far as matchups I been saying I think fish gonna put on a strikeout clinic vs your a’s this weekend, just lot of filthy stuff vs young kids who struggling. I never really look at k’s per game im more interested in k% and swing and miss numbers. They typically go hand and hand tho.
 
Crazy the nats the least k’s per 9 but it very rare I play a k prop vs them, them and cle make lot of contact. I have to get really favorable numbers like Lopez with 4.5 the other day to try and hit them against guardians. Nats you never hardly see a favorable number cause they get no respect despite being one the better hitting teams in the league!
 
You would probably do very well playing top emd pitchers k prop unders against nats!! I can just never bring myself to play unders, lol.
 
You gotta respect what Daniel lynch did his 1st start of the year fanning 6 against nats with 13% swinging strike. They hit lefties very well! Now he gets a Rockies team at bottom the league in ops vs lhp!
 
Rox also with a 28% k rate vs lhp, prob worse away from coors. They have lynch out total at 17.5, I’d say if he pitches that deep it almost a given he punches out 5+ and he sitting there with a 4.5!
 
Javier is such a tough case, I really think he more a 5.5 guy but his results vs laa justify the extra k. It just insane what he has done to the halo’s, he has punched them out like 47% their ab’s vs him! And that over 140ish at bats, plenty of a sample! That is just crazy!
 
I’m heading across river now. I’ll post’em as I play them. Not gonna repost the ones above, you will have to do little work to find them all today @KJ ! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I’m heading across river now. I’ll post’em as I play them. Not gonna repost the ones above, you will have to do little work to find them all today @KJ ! Lol
Click to expand...
Lol I'm too busy live betting hole by hole in golf to search, like if I sneeze I miss a bet at times
 
Ok here what Im rocking with, pitcher props card:

Eury perez ov 5.5 k’s
Medina ov 3.5 k’s
Berrios ov 4.5 k’s
Lynch ov 4.5 k’s
Logan Allen ov 4.5 k’s

Smyly ov 15.5 outs
Bradish ov 16.5 outs
 
Sides:

Rangers Ff (I was gonna do -.5 but I used the 50% boost so it made the ml +103). But that not enough for me so the total boost play is rangers Ff ml/smyly ov 15.5 outs, 50 max paid 222, boost added like 47 to the payout!

Nats Ff ml

Balty ml

They offered a “sweat free” SGPx where they refund 15 bucks if it loses so I did this. Didht pay a ton but whatever it free!!!

Rangers ml/Heaney 5+ k’s
Stros ml/Javier 6+ k’s


Think that all folk. Although feel like I need a few totals! Lol
 
Stros just freaking own the halo’s and we already discussed what Javier does against them! I liked the idea of making him 6+ instead of 7. Same with rangers, I think they just better and loved the idea of 5 k’s cashing with Heaney. That one seemed bout as strong you can get having to combine 2 separate sgp’s! Tried to make it least risky as possible! lol
 
2daBank said:
Ok here what Im rocking with, pitcher props card:

Eury perez ov 5.5 k’s
Medina ov 3.5 k’s
Berrios ov 4.5 k’s
Lynch ov 4.5 k’s
Logan Allen ov 4.5 k’s

Smyly ov 15.5 outs
Bradish ov 16.5 outs
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting, bro.
 
It’s crazy how all a sudden these past 3-4 days with full cards im coming up with 6-7 prop plays! Sometimes there stretches where lucky to find 2 or 3, just weird how I’ll see perceived value in bunches. Might as well play them all while the getting is good!!
 
I’ll write a bit on the ones I havnt discussed when I get back home if anyone interested in the why? I like to share that but I know over the years some guys have said they could care less just give them the plays! Lol. Not really my style, personally I wouldn’t blindly tail someone just cause they said so, there been guys over the years in different sports I’ve learned from by reading their reasoning and then doing some my own work. I much rather guys do that than just blindly tail, It your money after all and capping is the fun part to me! (Winning money is def nice too!!).
 
if you look at smyly he hasn’t went deep in his starts at wrigley but he has cleared 5.1 in every road start other than cincy which another band box. He shouldn’t have any problem in pitcher friendly petco against another hugely underachieving lineup, I have no clue why pads have been so bad? I really thought they were primed to challenge lad after finally knocking them off in playoffs last year but out of nowhere the snakes have flew past these dudes and I don’t see it changing.

Not related but Soto gonna go down as one the biggest morons in history passing up that 450 mil the nats offered him!! he wanted more and allegedly to play on a winner, lol, I got news for ya soto, the nats are better than your current team and no winning team is gonna give you 450 mil with way you have played since being traded, you did help rebuild a nice little team in Washington tho!!

Anywsys smyly shouldn’t have a issue pitching to contact in this park, the biggest key will just be throwing k’s and not letting them get his pitch count up. He has a really high 1st pitch strike percentage which should play great here agsinst a pads team who stares at early strikes! He not looking to punch a bunch out and he doesn’t walk many. I expect he will get ahead in counts and get pads to hit his pitches. I think he will cruise into the 6th.
 
Think I talked bout most the others. Medina 3.5 k’s is just stupid low, despite the 0-4 record and the 6 something era I actually think he one the potential bright spots on the A’s. I love playing young kids who have better stuff than the results have bared out to this point, he has a plus plus fastball and a very good curve. He does walk too many and the 6+ era bad but I see plenty of good, he has went past 5 innings in every start, rangers were his only start he didn’t fan 4+, the A’s have been giving him a long leash which is without a doubt the best thing about this bet, as long he not getting totally roughed up they gonna let him pitch 5+ innings and why not? Rather let my young starter learn than go to that atrocious pen early! Fish not the crazy high swing and miss team they been in previous years but that why it key we should expect him to see most the lineup 3x around, the heart fish order has a lot of k potential, I think he gets solar, de la Cruz, and Sanchez 1x each, that just leaves one other k to cash and there enough potential at bottom the order for him to get 1 more! Really feel like he have to get run from this game very early not to get 4+ and that just hasn’t been what happing in his starts vs much better lineups than this fish team.
 
2daBank said:
if you look at smyly he hasn’t went deep in his starts at wrigley but he has cleared 5.1 in every road start other than cincy which another band box. He shouldn’t have any problem in pitcher friendly petco against another hugely underachieving lineup, I have no clue why pads have been so bad? I really thought they were primed to challenge lad after finally knocking them off in playoffs last year but out of nowhere the snakes have flew past these dudes and I don’t see it changing.

Not related but Soto gonna go down as one the biggest morons in history passing up that 450 mil the nats offered him!! he wanted more and allegedly to play on a winner, lol, I got news for ya soto, the nats are better than your current team and no winning team is gonna give you 450 mil with way you have played since being traded, you did help rebuild a nice little team in Washington tho!!

Anywsys smyly shouldn’t have a issue pitching to contact in this park, the biggest key will just be throwing k’s and not letting them get his pitch count up. He has a really high 1st pitch strike percentage which should play great here agsinst a pads team who stares at early strikes! He not looking to punch a bunch out and he doesn’t walk many. I expect he will get ahead in counts and get pads to hit his pitches. I think he will cruise into the 6th.
Click to expand...

Soto lost 200 million and is in dumpster fire of an organization who will never overtake LAD
 
Inspekdah said:
Soto lost 200 million and is in dumpster fire of an organization who will never overtake LAD
Click to expand...

Snakes are close to passing them both! They have a lot of young talent, need to add something to the pen and another starter but their front end rotation solid, they have super athletic d, and still have some studs coming from what I understand.
 
Eury strikes out the side in the 1st inning!

Heaney does also but that don’t matter a ton, luckily he only gave up 1 run, hopefully rangers can get to this kid from double a!
 
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