Saturday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

May 22 Sat 2021

1:05 PM
913	Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R		+170	O 7½ +105
914	New York YankeesG. Cole -R+1 Markets		-185	U 7½ -125

3:10 PM
901	Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L		-104	O 11 -105
902	Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+1 Markets		-106	U 11 -115

4:05 PM
915	Houston AstrosL. McCullers Jr. -R		-174	O 8½ -120
916	Texas RangersJ. Lyles -R+1 Markets		+160	U 8½ +100

4:05 PM
925	Baltimore OriolesB. Zimmermann -L		+136	O 9 -120
926	Washington NationalsJ. Lester -L+1 Markets		-147	U 9 +100

4:10 PM
903	Milwaukee BrewersB. Anderson -L		+125	O 8½ -110
904	Cincinnati RedsS. Gray -R+1 Markets		-135	U 8½ -110

4:10 PM
917	Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L		+123	O 8 -110
918	Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1 Markets		-133	U 8 -110

4:10 PM
919	Minnesota TwinsK. Maeda -R		+158	O 7 -120
920	Cleveland IndiansS. Bieber -R+1 Markets		-172	U 7 +100

7:15 PM
911	Chicago CubsA. Alzolay -R		-103	O 8½ -110
912	St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R+1 Markets		-107	U 8½ -110

7:15 PM
927	Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R		-133	O 9 +100
928	Philadelphia PhilliesC. Anderson -R+1 Markets		+123	U 9 -120

7:37 PM
921	Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L		+102	O 9 -120
922	Toronto Blue JaysR. Ray -L+1 Markets		-112	U 9 +100

 

[GWarner27]

May 22	bumgarner
	MIKOLAS
	COLEG
	LYLES
	boyd
	maeda
	mcclanahan
	bassitt
	zimmermannB
	eovaldi

realistic
bum
boyd
maeda
mcclanahan
bassitt (guessed +100)

 

[Big daddy naught]

Yanks tt over. Jays. Rox

 

[CPA-hole]

Bryse Wilson for ATL today.

 

[GWarner27]

not sure if i haven't been that interested in much so far or that i'm hungover (probably both), but McClanahan drifting to a dog interests me. TOR bullpen really struggling and we know TB will bring it at the back even if it's not healthy

 

[GWarner27]

i guess it's not Bassitt-Bundy as he's going Sunday, Sandoval leaves plenty to be desired

 

[GWarner27]

Chatwood, Romano both worked b2b. Romano never b3b before, though he's never been the best reliever in the bullpen like he is currently. Chatwood never before and who knows how he'd perform as he's still trying to turn himself into a reliever after failing as a starter so many times

TB day off thursday should mean everybody can go b2b and that's a big advantage. Certainly will need the pen with McClanahan's season high 5.1 IP coming last start and that park in Dunedin looking like the little league field it is. I worry a bit about him struggling after giving up two dingers to NYM, but the high velocity arm with likely K's probably means even more in this park.

Ray is an enigma, rarely a favorite and surely hasn't paid off betting him giving odds in his career. On the other hand, betting him as a dog has been great. He's figured out his control a bit, impressive to see him with 9+ K in 4 of his last 5 starts since he'd never have been around long enough to achieve that in the past. Pitch. mix and a new organization has likely helped him with all that, worst start of the year was his last one but still got the win.

So it sounds like Ray is the high K guy you want in that park and he'll offer a bit more length than McClanahan if both are at their best. Don't have a TOR lineup yet, but they can load up R against McClanahan. Problem for them is that's probably what they have to do and McClanahan has huge reverse splits this season. Small sample size, sure, but tOPS+ is 85 vs R and 140 vs L which may have been the largest i've seen. No HR allowed to L, but 3/53 plate appearances vs R may suggest that's a weakness (especially since he pitches in no HR park like the Trop).

Ray will have to see 6 R, Lowe hitting 3rd makes me think the Rays don't fear LvL since they would have him hit LOWEr @gsro in the order. Lowe has been coming around after a bad start, Choi on fire since being activated from the IL hits 6th and then call-up Walls is somehow in the order and not Wander Franco.

Guess we wait and see on the TOR lineup, not expecting any absences and Semien has been raking. TB currently priced 48% to win so not a huge difference to a coinflip if that's how we see it

 

[inZane]

What a catch by Tapia with the bags loaded in the Rox game to end the inning.

And he leads off with a base hit...

 

[gsro]

did I read correctly.. Scott Kazmir is pitching today?

 

[Big daddy naught]

did I read correctly.. Scott Kazmir is pitching today?

I saw that too lol

 

[GWarner27]

saving Vladdy's legs at DH with Gurriel playing 1b, not sure he's played there before?

7-9 are very weak for TOR, but probably the stronger lineup. SP may be a wash, but probably leans TOR while bullpen is heavily in favor of TB however that unit is not the perfection it was last year.

I've lost plenty of worse bets, pretty much anything i play in soccer, but the current +104 seems like something i'll struggle to stay away from

 

[gsro]

saving Vladdy's legs at DH with Gurriel playing 1b, not sure he's played there before?

7-9 are very weak for TOR, but probably the stronger lineup. SP may be a wash, but probably leans TOR while bullpen is heavily in favor of TB however that unit is not the perfection it was last year.

I've lost plenty of worse bets, pretty much anything i play in soccer, but the current +104 seems like something i'll struggle to stay away from

He’s played a few games at first but can’t be worse than what vladdy was originally

 

[gsro]

did I read correctly.. Scott Kazmir is pitching today?

Can anyone explain to me why Walker was only -145 ish today against Kazmir?