Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 10 Sat 2021

12:10 PM
901Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+241O 7
-115
902New York MetsJ. Degrom -R-270U 7
-105
12:10 PM
915New York YankeesD. German -R-125O 8½
-110
916Tampa Bay RaysC. Archer -R+115U 8½
-110
1:10 PM
917Seattle MarinersY. Kikuchi -L+170O 9
-105
918Minnesota TwinsM. Pineda -R-185U 9
-115
1:10 PM
919Kansas City RoyalsM. Minor -L+136O 9½
-105
920Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R-147U 9½
-115
1:15 PM
903Milwaukee BrewersA. Houser -R-110O 8½
-115
904St. Louis CardinalsC. Martinez -R+100U 8½
-105
3:05 PM
905Colorado RockiesC. Gonzalez -R+139O 8½
-115
906San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R-150U 8½
-105
3:05 PM
923Oakland AthleticsF. Montas -R+131O 9
-120
924Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-142U 9
+100
5:10 PM
925Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+163O 9
-120
926Cleveland IndiansA. Civale -R-177U 9
+100
5:35 PM
907Chicago CubsZ. Davies -R-157O 8½
+105
908Pittsburgh PiratesM. Keller -R+145U 8½
-125
6:05 PM
927Boston Red SoxG. Richards -R-133O 9½
-115
928Baltimore OriolesB. Zimmermann -L+123U 9½
-105
6:05 PM
929San Diego PadresC. Paddack -R-170O 9
-120
930Texas RangersJ. Lyles -R+157U 9
+100
6:20 PM
909Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Eflin -R+136O 8½
+100
910Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R-147U 8½
-120
 
Mutts /Fish ff total 3.5
Lowest # this season?
I know I had 4 with the Tribe Wednesday.
 
In 5 starts with o’Nora calling balls and strikes Degrom has only allowed 5 runs, 2 of those came in a start in ‘14, 1 run each in his next 3, and 6 shutout innings this season as O’nora called degrom’s 1st start. He has always been fantastic during the day and just can’t see the fish lineup getting anything off him!!

So that just leaves us with what Rogers will do? Once he settled in and stopped walking guys in his 1st start vs cardinals he was pretty much unhittable. His 29-5 k:bb ratio in spring makes me think it coulda just been 1st start of season nerves plus fish were trying to have him pitch backwards with off speed early in counts which I’m assuming was based off scouting reports of cards hitters.

I think Rogers can give us 5 innings of no more than 2-3 runs. Don’t expect fish to get anything off degrom so Ff u3.5 the play.
 
2daBank said:
In 5 starts with o’Nora calling balls and strikes Degrom has only allowed 5 runs, 2 of those came in a start in ‘14, 1 run each in his next 3, and 6 shutout innings this season as O’nora called degrom’s 1st start. He has always been fantastic during the day and just can’t see the fish lineup getting anything off him!!

So that just leaves us with what Rogers will do? Once he settled in and stopped walking guys in his 1st start vs cardinals he was pretty much unhittable. His 29-5 k:bb ratio in spring makes me think it coulda just been 1st start of season nerves plus fish were trying to have him pitch backwards with off speed early in counts which I’m assuming was based off scouting reports of cards hitters.

I think Rogers can give us 5 innings of no more than 2-3 runs. Don’t expect fish to get anything off degrom so Ff u3.5 the play.
Click to expand...

Cubs again vs Bucs IMO.. Kelller hasn't been able to find strike zone and been walking batters too much which usually ends up in Runs scored. I forgot about all these early games. Damn you MLB! Well plus my Fantasy Bball draft is going on at hte moment as well.

Also Thinking about Toronto as the play with Matz starting. Getting good pitching might help to right the ship for them.
 
lfhlaw said:
Cubs again vs Bucs IMO.. Kelller hasn't been able to find strike zone and been walking batters too much which usually ends up in Runs scored. I forgot about all these early games. Damn you MLB! Well plus my Fantasy Bball draft is going on at hte moment as well.

Also Thinking about Toronto as the play with Matz starting. Getting good pitching might help to right the ship for them.
Click to expand...

man I dunno, I was just looking at that one and feel like it kinda tough to not like halo’s at plus anything. Matz on 4 days rest aint the best time to back him. He only had 1 start with Jerry lane but it wasn’t good, and laa just hitting lefties better than jays are at the moment. I doubt it be like that all year but they freaking rolling over on everything right now, think it sets up well for Quintana to have a solid start. I guess jays gotta win at some point but I just can’t lay any juice on them vs a way hotter team.
 
IDK what it is with the Rays and NYY, but they seem to play well vs them and have their number. The nice thing typically is that due to them being the Yankees You're almost always getting + Money...on the ML
 
lfhlaw said:
IDK what it is with the Rays and NYY, but they seem to play well vs then and have their number. The nice thing typically is that due to them being the Yankees You're almost always getting + Money...on the ML
Click to expand...

I feel like I missed the boat not playing rays this series, they have owned nyy going back to last year!
 
Was thinking Ff under in Atl but hate the ump. Eflin has actually been good with Marquez tho so def lean Philly at +125ish.
 
lfhlaw said:
Yea I think the Bats and Offense of NYY always makes you think twice about taking the Rays.
Click to expand...

a lot of it I just wasn’t high on the way rays been playing coming in. Apparently seeing those yanks makes them flip a switch! Another part of it was I can’t stand Rich hill who pitched yesterday and had no idea what archer had left today.
 
Looks like some possible storms during the laa/jays game also. Don’t like that for any play. Fairly strong wind blowing in, lefty vs lefty the Ff under 6 kinda interesting.
 
2daBank said:
a lot of it I just wasn’t high on the way rays been playing coming in. Apparently seeing those yanks makes them flip a switch! Another part of it was I can’t stand Rich hill who pitched yesterday and had no idea what archer had left today.
Click to expand...
True Archer got whacked his first start out....so in this case you'd be playing gut feel.
 
2daBank said:
In 5 starts with o’Nora calling balls and strikes Degrom has only allowed 5 runs, 2 of those came in a start in ‘14, 1 run each in his next 3, and 6 shutout innings this season as O’nora called degrom’s 1st start. He has always been fantastic during the day and just can’t see the fish lineup getting anything off him!!

So that just leaves us with what Rogers will do? Once he settled in and stopped walking guys in his 1st start vs cardinals he was pretty much unhittable. His 29-5 k:bb ratio in spring makes me think it coulda just been 1st start of season nerves plus fish were trying to have him pitch backwards with off speed early in counts which I’m assuming was based off scouting reports of cards hitters.

I think Rogers can give us 5 innings of no more than 2-3 runs. Don’t expect fish to get anything off degrom so Ff u3.5 the play.
Click to expand...
O'nora used to be a great over guy but has done the rare 180 in that respect
 
KJ said:
O'nora used to be a great over guy but has done the rare 180 in that respect
Click to expand...

rogers has been fantastic today, kinda expected that, cards really couldn’t hit him last start he was just walking guys all over the place early on. His spring k/bb was really good so thought that 1st outing might have been a blip.
 
Feel like gotta keep riding these tribe Ff unders. Only thing I don’t like about today is reasonably warm temps and a decent wind blowing out and Skubal for tigers is a fly ball pitcher. Considered tigers Ff but Civale has excellent splits vs left handed hitters for which he will see a bunch of in this game.
 
Be interesting to see if fish pen can make that 1-0 lead stick for 6 more outs? Muts just never give degrom any support! Dude has to throw 9+ innings of shutout ball to have a chance! 1 solo Jack and he in line to take a loss!! That gotta suck! This after the pen blowing his 2-0 lead in 1st start! Dude gonna be 0-1 after pitching 15 innings of 1 run ball! Lol
 
Man...I don’t know if I really like anything today. May take the day off and enjoy the big Vols baseball game tonight. Unless @2daBank wants to give me a play
 
2daBank said:
Feel like gotta keep riding these tribe Ff unders. Only thing I don’t like about today is reasonably warm temps and a decent wind blowing out and Skubal for tigers is a fly ball pitcher. Considered tigers Ff but Civale has excellent splits vs left handed hitters for which he will see a bunch of in this game.
Click to expand...
I'll quit when it loses
 
pressitup said:
I'll quit when it loses
Click to expand...

one loss won’t stop me from betting them, just dunno if they gonna be a auto play or not? Im having a ton of success with Ff unders overall to begin this year, I really wonder how much if any effect the new balls contributing? I think I’ve seriously still only missed the one in the cards/reds opener where it appeared both starters struggled with the cold, and I’ve bet a bunch of them!!!!

I passed yesterday but didn’t matter cause the pitching change, I’m super curious if tribe could have scored 6 off Teheran seeing him a 2nd time so soon? I am gonna play it tonight tho cause the only thing I don’t like about it as I mentioned Skubal being a fly ball pitcher and we have a 10mph wind blowing out to center. Everything else looks solid, just gotta hope if he does give up a Jack or 2 they solo shots!
 
lfhlaw said:
Cubs again vs Bucs IMO.. Kelller hasn't been able to find strike zone and been walking batters too much which usually ends up in Runs scored. I forgot about all these early games. Damn you MLB! Well plus my Fantasy Bball draft is going on at hte moment as well.

Also Thinking about Toronto as the play with Matz starting. Getting good pitching might help to right the ship for them.
Click to expand...

Keller def has some serious control issues. Walked 4 last week in 3 innings vs Cubs and had the same problem all spring, it was a terrible issue last year also. His stuff seems to play, usually has a low babip against and has a pretty decent hard hit rate against. Guys don’t chase his slider tho and he obviously don’t throw enough strikes, hasn’t even sniffed 50% 1st pitch strikes the last 2 years and we know how drastically the edge goes to the hitter when ahead in the count!! Strong wind blowing in at pnc tonight so I don’t think we see many bombs after the walks.

Cubs hitters are off to a really atrocious start this year, collectively they only have a .448 ops vs righties. Bryant the only guy in lineup hitting above the Mendoza line right now!! I think a great deal their 10 home runs have come off lefties, the 10 bombs does rank 8th in baseball but with a strong wind coming in from right tonight not sure they can count on homers? Could be a game Keller can pitch around the walks but that obviously playing with fire. At some point if you putting guys all over the bases someone gonna come thru with a hit! I was kinda hoping for a 5 on Ff but no such luck.
 
lfhlaw said:
I don't understand that bet? or you mean overall Under for game?
Click to expand...
overall

team = Cubs and season = 2021

SU:4-3 (0.14, 57.1%) avg line: -147.8 / 135.1 on / against: -$20 / -$15 ROI: -1.9% / -2.1%
RL:3-4 (-1.36, 42.9%) avg line: 133.8 / -154.4 on / against: -$20 / -$40 ROI: -2.9% / -3.6%
OU:1-6-0 (-2.50, 14.3%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$558 / +$500 ROI: -71.7% / +65.6%
 
2daBank said:
their bats been pretty lifeless, nice wind blowing in also. I was very tempted to play the Ff under but Keller walks scares me off.
Click to expand...

Yea when you start walking batters, pitchers start throwing right down the middle which can lead to runs...Maybe they fixed him up between starts... IDK.
 
lfhlaw said:
Yea when you start walking batters, pitchers start throwing right down the middle which can lead to runs...Maybe they fixed him up between starts... IDK.
Click to expand...

yea I dunno either but seeing how it been a ongoing problem with him I dunno what they woulda fixed they apparently wernt able to during the spring or before his 1st start? The way scrubbies swinging the bats it wouldn’t shock me if they stranded a bunch of runners and under came in but that really playing with fire as the flood gates could open at any point! If you made me play it I’d play Ff under but there were plenty of other things I liked more.
 
Rox won the Ff before giving the lead up. Kinda be glad to see a favorite or 2 come in since I’m on 3 dogs tonight! Lol
 
lfhlaw said:
Yea when you start walking batters, pitchers start throwing right down the middle which can lead to runs...Maybe they fixed him up between starts... IDK.
Click to expand...
THis game has been played already. Keller v Davies 4/4. under by a run n 1/2. They posted same line. Doesn't mean it's a guarantee.

Either way, I was pointing out the 1-6 trend to the over/under.
 
pressitup said:
THis game has been played already. Keller v Davies 4/4. under by a run n 1/2. They posted same line. Doesn't mean it's a guarantee.

Either way, I was pointing out the 1-6 trend to the under.
Click to expand...

I dunno what wind or temps were like at wrigley that day but think most the time pnc plays more pitcher friendly than wrigley does. These quick turn arounds with starting pitcher rematches are tough imo. Seems like ya rarely get same kind of game as the 1st.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno what wind or temps were like at wrigley that day but think most the time pnc plays more pitcher friendly than wrigley does. These quick turn arounds with starting pitcher rematches are tough imo. Seems like ya rarely get same kind of game as the 1st.
Click to expand...
shrugs
 
Shit. Delayed start in the laa game. I knew there was a chance but one place I looked showed only like 25%, I hate being involved in games with delays, better before the game starts than during but still leads to some goofy results after guys sit around for hours.
 
Damn, I think every dog has won so far today, a’s up a bunch, Giants could be 1st fav to win. That nuts. Hope it keeps up.
 
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