Saratoga Race Course Week #7 Discussion.....

R9:

the big muscular Tapit filly #1 Tap to It was one of the most impressive 2YO debut winners at the meet, 8/16 R6 Spa - took $, not the best start, steady check taken up early and shuffled back , angled around horses through stretch, very explosive run, 2nd place finisher was sitting 2nd and looked home free when made the lead , and 3rd place finisher was sitting 3rd so it's not like it was a pace collapse.

#3 is speed and taking off blinkers should really be gunning early and #5 should also be pace factor

#6 tough wide trip in last, which was her first start vs fillies, previous two were vs the boys
 
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R10:

Projects to be a lot of early speed #2,4,6,8 and I'll be against the speed types and look for someone off the pace.

I had #5 last time he ran and considering his trip and the dynamics of that race told myself I can't wait to bet him back, especially if I get a race with some pace, well I get my wish and I'm 15-1 ml. 8/9 R9 at Spa - spotted field 12 lengths after slow start vs wire to wire winner (#4 in this race), had to steady alter widest stretch while making very strong late run, ran 35 feet more than winner and 44 more feet than 3rd place finisher according to Trakus.

#1 and #7 both also figure for Jimmy Jerkens, and should have good pace setups
 
Play2win said:
Saturday @ The Spa 9/5

R1:

#7, Rudy is going good as of late and this one is off the claim, ran vs better in last and 3rd place finisher came back to win

#6 exits two tough trips

#3 is 15-1 ml but has a chance and also exits two tough trips
Click to expand...

#2 for Pletcher on the cut back from 9 furlongs, ran a strong 7 furlong race in May. Can't dismiss a horse that's shown a winning style for that quirky distance.

#7 looks like a wire candidate but the class drop off the claim could be suspicious.

#1 entry, especially Tax Package for Chad, could be ready to run well going turf to dirt, 2nd off layoff, dropping in class.
 
Play2win said:
Saturday @ The Spa 9/5

R2:

#8 goes dirt to turf and stretches out for Donegal Racing (Paddy O Prado and Travers winner Keen Ice) for best stretch out trainer in the game. Turf breeding is there , 2nd dam Possibly Perfect was a six time G1 winner.

#9 big time turf breeding and Clement is 3 for 7 $10.77 ROI L5 years @ Saratoga with 2YO 1sters in turf routes.

#6 stretching out for Motion figures, 2nd place finisher won on Thursday

#2 is a capable 1ster for Weaver
Click to expand...

Agree that #9 is the prime firster of the group and the lean on the two with experience. Otherwise its a crapshoot.
 
Play2win said:
R3:

#1 I'm against the likely favorite, exits race vs suspect field and Chad is awful with these types, 1 for 17 last 5 years 2nd time starter, won debut dirt

#2 is live at a price imo, as mentioned Rudy is going good. .turf to dirt and 2nd off layoff, prior two dirt races were respectable finishes in stakes company, tough trip last dirt race (2 back)

#4 figures for Godolphin/McLaughlin

#6 had early trouble and not much pace to run into in last
Click to expand...

Pace setup appears to benefit #4 and #6.
 
Play2win said:
R4:

#9 Shug coming back on short rest and going turf route debut to 7F dirt likely means he just wanted a distance race for debut and they don't run these longer dirt sprints for 2YO until the end of the meet, Shug is much better 2nd out than he is with his 1sters.

#3 2nd time starter just missed in debut, $575k yearling purchase is half to G1 winner Justin Phillip , half to Keyed Entry, full to G3 Algorithms

#2 $210k 2YO in training purchase debuts for Rice, and should show speed with Jose Ortiz

#7 has three winners of $100k or more in 2nd family

#4 can't count Rudy out, especially at a price
Click to expand...

#3 looks tough in here, #9 should be fit and move forward.

The Gio Ponte colt #7 interests me, seems to be working well. Nicks knows how to get them ready.
 
Play2win said:
R5:

#6 appears to be the lone speed

#7 is off the claim for Joe Sharp, he's 4 for 15 $3.05 ROI off the claim on turf. Win on Spa turf and 2 for 3 at the distance.

#1 also off the claim, tough trip in last and now adds Lasix. Serpe is just under 30% off the claim on turf last 5 years ($3.42 ROI)
Click to expand...

Agree with all points.
 
Play2win said:
R8:

#3 is a likely short price winner for Chad/Irad/Klaravich

But another Chad/Klaravich #1 is like a trip horse of all trip horses, 7/18 R7 @ Delaware - banged around at the start, widest turn 1, wide rush up move on backside and forced to check, lost more ground, wide whole way, lost tons of ground while racing wide around turn 2, very strong stretch run and just missed by half length vs winner that had a jump on him, considering trip and fact he galloped out way past winner he was tons the best.
Click to expand...

The way this turf course is playing I think #8 is a must use as the dominant early speed.

#4 should also get a better showing with the jockey switch and 2nd time running on US soil.
 
Play2win said:
R9:

the big muscular Tapit filly #1 Tap to It was one of the most impressive 2YO debut winners at the meet, 8/16 R6 Spa - took $, not the best start, steady check taken up early and shuffled back , angled around horses through stretch, very explosive run, 2nd place finisher was sitting 2nd and looked home free when made the lead , and 3rd place finisher was sitting 3rd so it's not like it was a pace collapse.

#3 is speed and taking off blinkers should really be gunning early and #5 should also be pace factor

#6 tough wide trip in last, which was her first start vs fillies, previous two were vs the boys
Click to expand...

I'll take your word on this race because it looks like an ALL race to me. Thank god there's only 6 running. Great field.
 
Play2win said:
R10:

Projects to be a lot of early speed #2,4,6,8 and I'll be against the speed types and look for someone off the pace.

I had #5 last time he ran and considering his trip and the dynamics of that race told myself I can't wait to bet him back, especially if I get a race with some pace, well I get my wish and I'm 15-1 ml. 8/9 R9 at Spa - spotted field 12 lengths after slow start vs wire to wire winner (#4 in this race), had to steady alter widest stretch while making very strong late run, ran 35 feet more than winner and 44 more feet than 3rd place finisher according to Trakus.

#1 and #7 both also figure for Jimmy Jerkens, and should have good pace setups
Click to expand...

Agree with your idea of a pace collapse, will be using #5 and #7 to hopefully cash a nice pick 3 starting in race 8: 3,4,8 / ALL / 5,7
 
Play2win said:
R4:

#9 Shug coming back on short rest and going turf route debut to 7F dirt likely means he just wanted a distance race for debut and they don't run these longer dirt sprints for 2YO until the end of the meet, Shug is much better 2nd out than he is with his 1sters.

#3 2nd time starter just missed in debut, $575k yearling purchase is half to G1 winner Justin Phillip , half to Keyed Entry, full to G3 Algorithms

#2 $210k 2YO in training purchase debuts for Rice, and should show speed with Jose Ortiz

#7 has three winners of $100k or more in 2nd family

#4 can't count Rudy out, especially at a price
Click to expand...
#11 draws in off AE list and has to be considered, Asmussen is great with his 2YO 2nd time starters at Saratoga
 
#1 made his own hole there, but I don't think he cost anyone a placing. Thought he should have stayed up.
 
Had to go All to guarantee getting the favorite. Nice race for both Rachel and Tap, should be fun to watch them progress.
 
Too many Pletcher's in there. Looked almost like they were running a blockade for Liam's Map.
 
I will be trackside tomorrow, going for AM works and whole nine. I'll try to post some Sunday thoughts aka good fade material, also will be involved in low roller contest.
 
10 was best but 5 was a good horse but jock never was in position to let the horse go
 
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