s--k's plays week 8

STEED said:
Good luck.
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Thanks. You have any thoughts on Buckeye's vs Iowa? Leaning that way, seems like Iowa will have hard time both containing tOSU O and then keeping up. Like Buckeyes minimum in 40s, Iowa maximum in 20s type game. What you think?
 
I agree. I love us off byes but clearly I'm bias.

Urban said this week he wants to score more points regardless of what the score is...if he can (nice way of saying he will run it up if possible).

Secondary is still a concern for me but just gotta roll with the punches at this point. Needless to say I don't anticipate any slip ups versus this Iowa team.
 
Ohio St, Northern Illinois, Arizona are on the radar now.

Don't like where that UCLA line is going. If line keeps climbing I might take a look at Auburn.

Should have more time to post later this week.
 
I feel it could be an upset week.. There always is a week with a lot of upsets and its usually somewhere between week 8-10.

I will be looking at dogs this week, last week I was on all faves pretty much.
 
North Carolina

I've been on or against UNC the last 3 games and gone 1-1-1 in those. Just missed vs GT, took ECU against them and took a shot +10 vs VT.

They invested alot in the GT game and when several breaks didn't go their way they came back home with the preverbial hangover vs an ECU team off a bye hungry to atone for their 2012 failure. The game was ugly. ECU has not played that well before or since and UNC has not been beaten so badly before or since. Clearly UNC was not up for that game while ECU was off a bye and sky high. Renner was scratched from the VT game and UNC started slow only gaining 1 FD on their first three drives while falling behind 14-0. After a 2nd and goal at the 5, UNC kicked a FG to trail 10-21. Late in the 4th qrt a fumbled punt set up VT for a 17y TD 'drive' and then Heels went 89y for a garbage TD to lose by 10. I think all things considered playing the bu QB in Blacksburg that result is not all that bad. Heels out FD'd, out gained (including out rushed) and sacks were even at 2 for each team. In the second half UNC limited VT to just 64 yards. Once the O got some rhythm they held them own vs one of the best defenses in the country.

Miami does not have a VT caliber defense. Miami does not have a unique and troublesome offense like GT. Offensively Canes can be a better version of what ECU did, which at face value is concerning, but the variables are different for this game. UNC is not hung over from a disappointing game the week prior, they shouldn't be lacking focus and aren't playing a highly motivated instate team wanting to prove something.

According to Jeff Sagarin, UNC has played the 8th toughest schedule to date, while Miami just the 96th. Preseason this line would be UNC pk to -3...now it is Miami -8', a big swing. So what has changed? No major personnel changes are present, no major injuries. Just one team living up to their potential and another not playing to their's. Is Miami really , that much better to now be favored by more than TD on the Thursday night road?

Looking at who Miami has played

The 21-16 win over Florida jumps out. Miami did benefit from 5 FL TOs and 6 FL trips into the RZ only resulted in 10 pts. FL also racked up 413 yards, just 2 shy of their season high. The maligned Driskel did pass for 67% and 291 yards (career high). UNC does not have a D close to FL's caliber, but Morris was just 48% and Johnson ran for just 2.8 ypc. It wasn't really Miami winning this game as much as it was Florida losing it, which some people will take exception to, but generally this game is considered a misleading win for Miami.

A 45-30 win over GT would appear impressive. In the context of the matchup this week, a win over GT is something that UNC could not accomplish. However, Miami trailed for almost the entire 1st half vs GT, at one time by 10 and only tied it on a late FG 17-17 halftime. GT missed a game tying x-pt early 4th qrt and the game was just 24-23 Canes. A competitive game unraveled from there. After Canes went up 31-23, Tech went to the passing game with plenty of time left with 5 out of their next 7 plays being passes and INT was result. Canes tacked on another O score and then back up Tech QB fumbled which was ret TD to blow it open. The 15 pt margin wasn't indicative of how close the game was.

Otherwise Miami has padded their stats vs lesser competition. With Florida's offense being what it is and with GT running the option, the UNC O is actually the best all around offense they have seen to date. And unquestionably the best QB and receiving threats to test their pass D.

UNC O

Renner is going to start. Not playing vs VT means he will have had almost 3 weeks to heel from an ankle sprain that kept him out vs VT. His absence allowed Marquise Williams to be more than just a shotgun running QB and his strong play vs VT has lead to coaches creating more packages for him, not just one-off run plays, but perhaps full series with a threat of both run and pass. We'll see how this plays out Thursday.

TE Ebron leads w/ 23r-333y and he is going to be a tough matchup for everyone. Jack Tabb is also back in the lineup at TE after not playing vs GT or ECU. Quinshad Davis is #2 and has 11r-205y the last two weeks (8r-93y first 3 gm). Tapley and Thorpe also figure into the receiving rotation.

The OL has been bad. There are two rFr starting, although the entire OL has started together all 5 games this year. Due to the OL struggles, the running game has been poor. Morris and Blue appeared to be plenty capable of stepping into the feature role this season, but the loss of 3 OL from last year have had a bigger than expected impact. They have given up 11 sacks already this season (11 all of 2012) and Miami does have 18 sacks to their credit, although 10 of those have come vs lowly USF and Sav St and 4 more came vs FAU. So not sure that UNC OL and QB release is as bad as those 3 teams so I take some of Miami's sack production with a grain of salt when applying it to this matchup.

UNC D

It hasn't been pretty. Say they did a good job vs VT, although that isn't a huge accomplishment. ECU more than doubled their best rushing game on the Heels (227).

The DL is badly missing the presence of NT Williams. The BANDIT position is producing more with Norkeithus Otis (3.5 sacks, 5 tfl, 3 qbh, 2 pbu). But the rest of the DL has not showed up and is a concern.

The LBs and Secondary has not be good either. They've started the same 4 CB/S combos (all of which has good experience except for tFr S Green), but are searching for answers at RAM.

Let's just say there isn't much positive to write about the defense.

Series history
The average score the last 6 games is Miami 25.3 UNC 24.3. No team has scored more than 33 (UNC 2x, Mia 1x). The average margin of victory is 8.6 (largest 23, smallest 4 twice). The average line 5.6 (highest 7'). The favorite has only covered 1 of 6 and there have been 4 upsets. Home team is 4-2 ATS. It has been a one possession game 4 out of last 6 with the others being a 9 and 23 pt margin.

Butch Davis understandibly always did well in this series vs his former team winning his first three games outright as 7, 7' and 3 pt underdogs. Miami then won back-to-back 2010 33-10 (home -6') and 2011 30-24 (road +2').

2012: 18-14 UNC (-7')

UNC 30-26 FD, 486-415ty, 272-180ry, +1 TO edges

Last year Heels won behind Bernard's running. Both QBs struggled to some degree, Renner was 24-40-214-0TD-1INT and Morris was 12-26-155-0TD-2INT.

Heels opened up 7-0 and took their 2nd drive 9p-72y, but thew INT at the 1. They also had a 12p-56y drive end in a missed 33y FG (1 of 2 misses). Morris' first INT was near RZ, his other on a deep throw.


Conclusion

One common opponent in GT. UNC on the road allowed GT to 428ty, 324ry (4.6) and Miami at home allowed GT 401ty, 335ry (5.4). Not much you can take away from that. Miami statistically ranks higher in all D categories, but it is reflective of who they've played. Miami's Pass D is #1 ncaa, but again you look at who they've played and it is easy to see how they could be #1. We should remember that Miami was the ACC's worst defense last season.

Bye weeks can be good or sometimes bad. Some might say that a team on a roll and hot entering a bye can hurt momentum. So whether or not Miami having 11 days off will help or hurt them I do not know. It is safe to say that UNC definitely needed this bye week. I think they used their last bye well vs GT, which didn't result in a cover, but I think it did show on the field in how they played in some challenging weather.

I have a hard time seeing the talent on the field for Miami being 8+ pts better than UNC and I also have a hard time rationalizing them being such a large road fav vs a team they are comparable to talent wise. For context Miami has been a road fav just three times in their last 12 away games dating back to 2010. -17 @ USF '13 (won by 28) and -2' @ BC '12 (won by 9, allowed 537y) -6' @ Duke '12 (won by 7, allowed 583y).

The Chapel Hill football crowd has often been critized, but for Zero Dark Thursday, you'd have to expect a full house giving them a home field advantage they typically don't benefit from. This ESPN game has been hyped since the uniforms were released this summer.

I think the value is on UNC. Can't make too strong of a case for ML play, but an UNC upset wouldn't be all that surprising to me.
 
Northern Illinois

I'm a little leary of this game for a few reasons.

1) the line is a little inflated. Since the Chips have sucked after Kelly and Jones left these lines have hovered around 10 past 3 meetings and there was also an upset in 2011, last time in Mt Pleasant. This line has been coming down from 17 to 15' currently. I'd like to see it fall a little further.

2) NIU D is hard to trust laying too many pts. Last 3 games vs Purdue, Kent and Akron NIU D has allowed just 22.7 ppg, which is pretty good for them compared to how things were going after their first 3 (33.7). The yards allowed have also improved; from 491 ypg allowed first 3, to 429 ypg the last 3. Purdue did gain 524, which is never good. Purdue moved the ball, but failed to cash their drives and NIU scored on ST and D enroute to that 55-24 game.

3) CMU is gaining some confidence having won back-to-back road games at Mia, OH and now Ohio and return home and have a bye on deck. Will the enthusiasm lead to a let down, or sustain them to play over their heads again?

So laying over 2 TDs here may not be for those with weak stomachs.

CMU O vs NIU D

CMU rFr QB Cooper Rush went 20 of 28 (71%) for 224 and 3-1 TD-INT last week at Ohio, which is great for him because in 4 previous games vs IA teams he passed for a combined 51% with a negative TD-INT ratio in each game (3-8 total). NIU has 10 INTs on the year (5 shy of ‘12 total) and while it was aided by 4 vs Purdue, 8 of those INTs belong to S tandem Jimmy Ward and Dechane Durante who have played together last 3 years. Add 13 pass def between them. Both S are 1 and 3 in team tackles, which isn’t out of the norm for NIU, last season S position was 1 and 4 in tackles. Jimmy Ward is a stud and both him and Durante are NFL prospects.

Not sure if it speaks to OL weakness, inexperience QB or lack of awareness and mobility, but CM has been sacked 10x in their 3 MAC games this year and 22x on the year (3.1 pg)...bad enough for 121st nationally. NIU’s t-6th ncaa 20 sacks were boosted greatly by 9 at Idaho, but 3 a piece vs Purdue and Akron’s inexperienced QBs could provide some foreshadowing.

RB Saylor Lavalli has rushed for 160 ypg vs MAC, including 184 last week. Akron tried to lean on Chisolm last week with 20 att, but he gained only 70y. Akron however is not a strong running team. NIU did allow Kent's Durham 72y (5.2) while holding Archer to just 13y on 4 att. Weisman gained 100y in week 1 (5.0 ypc). I don't think we can expect NIU to totally shut down a hot Lavalli this week.

WR Titus Davis is arguably CMU's best player on O right now and he missed last week. Other receivers stepped up, but Davis is a big player for them. If he is in this O has a go-to guy. NIU is allowing the most yards passing in the MAC, but also the lowest completion %.

Whether or not the young QB Rush is a one week wonder and more like his previous 4 games, or if he can duplicate the one-off game vs Ohio will go a long way in determining how this game will shake out.

NIU O vs CMU D

You have to start with Lynch. His role running has decreased, which is ultimately a good thing (more on that below), but he is still the all-everything. He is off a 45% completion game vs Akron. While we're asking what CMU QB will do on the heels of his best game, I am going to assume that with Lynch's track record a bounce-back is expected off his worst game. The weapons are there...Da'Ron Brown has come through this year to lead in yards 424 on just 28r. Tommy Lee Lewis leads with 40r (346y). There are role players after them, but in total 8 players have caught TDs this year including RBs.

You can generally do whatever you want vs the CMU D.

Toledo ran for 252 (5.9) and converted 75% 3rd down, Ohio passed for 332 (season high) and converted 50% 3rd down. Hell even Mia, Oh had their most yards gained and best ypp avg vs the Chips 2 weeks ago.

Lynch has passed for 1333, 60.5% and 13-4 ratio w/ 616ry (5.8) and Stingley has 656ry (5.5).

NIU has the MAC's #1 scoring O [#20 ncaa], total O [#14 ncaa], rushing O [#9 ncaa], and #4 passing O. CMU counters with ncaa #99 scoring D, #79 total D, #83 rush D and #111 pass eff D.

NIU has allowed just 4 sacks, CMU is a good tfl team and does have 15 sacks (18 all '12), but nearly half of those came vs UNLV and New Hamp.

NIU RB emergence helps more ways than one

A month ago there the RB situation was a little cloudy with the #1 RB from '12 gone and the #2 guy (assumed to be #1 this year Akeem Daniels injured). Converted LB Cameron Stingley to the rescue.

As his role in the offense has grown, Stingley has given the O creditable play action capabilities they lacked when the running game was all Lynch all the time early in the season.

Also, Lynch had over 20 carries in each of the first 3 games and come the Purdue game it was getting hard to imagine how Lynch would survive the season with the beating he was taking. Stingley has helped here too, he has recorded more carries than Lynch in each of the last 3 games and Lynch has only had to carry it avg 12.5 pg in that span while still averaging over 5 ypc. Stingley's best effort was a 37-266 performance at Kent.

CMU beats Ohio 26-23

As nearly a 3 TD underdog Chips shocked OU with Enos calling it one of his biggest win as a player or coach.

OU did lose 4 TOs to CMU's 1. OU had 3 consecutive 1st half drives end in TO at the CM 28, 20, and EZ, yet they only trailed 3-10 at halftime. The final TO was the most costly, a muffed punt by OU set up CM for a short TD drive and the game winning TD with just :22 left. OU had more FDs and more yards. While CM played well enough to cover the high spread, the outright win was all but gift wrapped.

Recent history

2012 NIU (-10) 55-24
NIU 32-20 FD, 622-462 ty, 407 (7.4) - 130 (4.2) ry and +2 TO edges. CM 332-215 py edge.

2011 CMU (+9') 48-41 in Mt Pleasant
NIU 31-19 FD, 587-563 ty, 217-176 ry edges, but -2 TO deficit. CM 387-370 py edge.

2010 NIU (-10) 33-7
NIU 26-19 FD, 420-305 ty, 282 (5.0) - 94 (3.5) ry and +5 TO edges. CM 211-138 py edge.

Last year NIU came home off their noncovering win at Kansas and had previously beat Army by just 1 and 1 pt loss to Iowa. CM had just beaten Iowa by 1 as a 14 pt dog the week prior. It was just 24-14 at halftime and 34-24 end of 3rd qrt. NIU scored 3 4th qrt TDs for the 55-24 margin aided by CM TOs.

Kicking Questions?

CMU K Coluzzi was 5 of 5 in Sept, but has hit a slump missing 4 of his last 6 and also missing an extra pt last week.

NIU All MAC K Sims was a late scratch last week and his replacement had two FGs blocked. Sims' status for this week is not known.

Conclusion

Again, there are things to not like about this matchup which I already touched on in one way or another. Here are some things I do like. NIU struggled last week vs Akron, this should lead to better focus and prep this week to improve play [side note, that was the Akron team I expected 2 weeks ago vs Ohio]. CM beating Ohio last week undoubtedly got NIU's attention on top of the fact that Huskies were upset last time they traveled to Mt Pleasant. I'm not sold on CM being good. They played a pretty good game last week vs Ohio, but on the season I think they've shown to not be all that good and I'm sure they will be out coached and should be out manned as well. They had a 4.5 win total coming off a 7 win 2012 for a reason. NIU should top 40 and approach 50 pts unless the Akron game is signaling an oncoming slump which I do not expect. Not sure this CM team can get much more than mid 20s. Any past success CM had vs NIU last 3 years was with Radcliff who finished as #2 all time passer there, now they have rFr QB who has been poor in all but 1 game this year. It might be just a .5u play unless the line continues to drop at which point I could see it as a 1u play.
 
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Terrific write up on game this evening. I have watched almost all of the games you mention. Ebron is a big time tight end. UNC played USC tough opening night. If not for getting down early I believe the outcome would have been much more interesting. Renner is a strong passer. I believe that we see lots of points tonight as Miami does stretch the field but Morris is prone to the TO. UNC and Over tonight look good to me.Raining in ATL now, I cant imagine it will be a big factor this evening as it should taper (unlike the FED). GL dude.
 
UNC +9 2u

I rarely step out on Thursday / Friday games and generally don't even like to play them as they are just typically games I don't have much of an opinion in and bet just for the hell of it. But tonight, this is probably my favorite game of the weekend so letting the double unit fly. Don't think 10 will show up for me, but will wait until late minute to call it in just in case.
 
gynecologist said:
I feel it could be an upset week.. There always is a week with a lot of upsets and its usually somewhere between week 8-10.

I will be looking at dogs this week, last week I was on all faves pretty much.
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Maybe starting tonight you think?

I bet 15 games last week, all dogs. I'm a little concerned that I do not like that many dogs this week as that is typically what my card is full of.

agree UCF and UCLA, BOL this week :cheers:
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Sounds good. Maybe two straight up winners there as well?

Enjoyed that write-up, s--k and plan to be with you on this one.
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Thanks, enjoyed typing it. A win with a write up feels better and a loss with a write up feels worse. Just nice to be rewarded for the time invested. We'll see what happens.

Terrific write up on game this evening. I have watched almost all of the games you mention. Ebron is a big time tight end. UNC played USC tough opening night. If not for getting down early I believe the outcome would have been much more interesting. Renner is a strong passer. I believe that we see lots of points tonight as Miami does stretch the field but Morris is prone to the TO. UNC and Over tonight look good to me.Raining in ATL now, I cant imagine it will be a big factor this evening as it should taper (unlike the FED). GL dude.
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Glad you chimed in with the agreement. Time to play to your potential Heels!
 
Silkydiamonds said:
Nice writeups & good call
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Thanks. Wish we both could have won with the number you had.

I think UNC O can do some good things, Ebron was amazing last night. Overall their O played ok, but they had more 3-and-out possessions than I would have liked and the 4th qrt game management by players and coaches was awful, for that alone they deserved to lose SU.

To me the blocked FG ret Canes TD more than makes up for their early RZ failures...a perfect bounce on the block leads to a 10 pt swing vs leaving 8 points off the board by their early RZ FGs instead of TDs.

Having said that, not sure I want to be on Heels too many more times. Think their D looked better than it is because of Johnson's injury and some play calling perhaps. UNC O can be good, but are not consistent at all. But last night they were better than the inflated spread atleast, that is what I was counting on.
 
Central Florida

Had marked UCF as a play around 10 and am more interested now with it over 2 TDs.

Last week considering Rutgers, I was worried that with limited opportunities to impress the nation that LV and Bridgewater would put the hammer down. I was reminded that 'need to' and 'want to' doesn't mean it will happen. Rutgers provided enough resistance to keep them from impressing much of anyone. So this week, they will again 'need to' and 'want to' have a good game in front of the national TV audience, one problem for them is they play a better team in UCF and the spread is getting close to what they laid vs Rutgers. This week I'm in.

UCF probably could have used a bye after the S Carolina game. Instead they survived vs Memphis, undoubtedly UCF had some hangover effects from jumping out on SC and a late comeback bid fell short. And Memphis continually is proving to be quite the defense themselves. So no problem for me to look past their 24-17 win at Memphis. UCF got their bye, just in time for arguably their most important game of the year, the game that will determine whether or not they can win the All American Conference. Games vs BCS level schools are big, but winning the conference is THE goal, it's what they expect. They've competed in the CUSA title game 2 of the last 3 years (winning in 2010).

Examining the UCF vs Penn St and S Carolina

at Penn St 34-31 (+4')

UCF's most yards gained on the year (507), it was also however, the 2nd most yards allowed (455).

UCF jumped out 21-7 and led 21-10 halftime, extending it to 28-10 in the 3rd before PSU made it 28-17. UCF had 1st and goal at the 5, but settled for 22y FG. 31-17. PSU outscored UCF 14-3 in the 4th, one of those TDs came with under 1m left. There is no question that UCF controlled the game throughout and was clearly the better team on the field no matter what just a 3 pt margin implies.

While UCF sacked Hackenberg just once, PSU did not record any sacks (only game they didn't have atleast 2 sacks) and just 2 tfl (a fraction of their season avg).

UCF 58% 3rd down O (2nd best on the year) and vs Syracuse, Indiana and Michigan PSU D only allowed 26.3% conversions!
PSU 25% 3rd down O (typical for their avg).

Bortles 20-27-288-3TD-1INT
Hackenberg 21-28-262-TD
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Johnson 17att-117y (6.9) TD
*PSU 3 RBs 31-196y (6.3) 3 TD
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Worton 7r-101 (14.4) TD

vs S Carolina 25-28 (+7)

UCF's 3rd highest yardage output on the year (427), but also their most allowed yards (490).

UCF takes opening drive for TD (75y 4 FDs on drive, two 3rd down conversions), then gets 2nd qrt FG (80y 4 FDs, two 3rd down conversions) for 10-0 lead at half. SC got their O going in 2nd half, UCF started slow including a big INT and fumble on back-to-back possessions that set SC up for 34y & 31y TD 'drives', 28-10 SC. With the score 28-17 SC had 1st and goal at 3, but fumbled and UCF got their 2nd 70+y TD strike of the quarter to only trail 28-24 before SC took a knee.

UCF 54.5% 3rd down O - vs the 5 other BCS teams that SC played they allowed just 34.7%
SC 55.5 3rd down O, about avg for them.

SC had a 2-1 sack advantage, 6-5 tfl

Bortles 25-36-358-2-2
SC QBs 16-34-265-0-1INT
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Johnson 16att-64y (4.0)
*SC top 2 RBs 31-198y (6.3) 3TD
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Hall 8r-142y (17.8) 2 TD
Perriman 3r-109y (36)

In those two Bortles was combined 71.75% for 546y and 5-3 ratio. If we look back to 2012 vs tOSU and Mizzou he went 54 of 84 for 516y and a 4-1 ratio. He did struggle with compl % in two games vs Tulsa’s very good 2012 D, but he did have 3 TDs and 0 INTs in those games. Bortles won’t beat you with his legs, but he will run. He ran for 80y vs Ball in the bowl and ran for 60 in the ECU and one of the Tulsa games as well. He's run for just 35y this year, 10 combined vs PSU and SC, but atleast it wasn't negative yardage vs those two.

Johnson's run for 181 (5.45) vs these two teams. In 2012 Johnson ran for 75y (6.25) vs tOSU and also 93y (6.2) vs Mizzou. He can get it done.

And they have a host of WRs to throw to, they are all capable of getting open and making plays.

If there's any concern it would be UCF D

Looking at the games vs PSU and SC it is clear that UCF isn't going to stop many good running teams. They ran for 394 on the Knights. If LV wants to run it a bunch, they will find alot of success.

UCF D also isn't especially good at getting to the QB with just 10 sacks on the year and 5 of those vs Memphis last week...take those away and they avg just over 1 pg. 1 sack and 0 hurries vs PSU and 2 sacks with 3 hurries vs SC isn't great. LV's improved in their protection this year.

Contrast that with LV's sack production...8 last week vs Rutgers plus 5 more hurries. While that number is an outlier, LV does have 3 other games this year with 4 sacks (vs poor teams albeit). UCF has held up well in the sack allowed department so far, their OL pretty good with 3 players receiving CUSA honors in their career. How this equation ends up will be a big determining factor.

The secondary has done well, but I'll say that Bridgewater does present perhaps their toughest test (with or without Parker). UCF is ncaa 34th pass eff D (by comparison Bama 30th, LV 11th) The top 2 CBs are good, rFr J Glenn and Jr J Ozerities, but the next 2 are tFr.

Conclusion (kind of wrapping up quick running out of time)

You wouldn't think the UCF D is good enough to beat Louisville, especially on the road. But Bridgewater hasn't been great in games vs Rutgers and Kentucky and UCF D should be similar to those teams.

On the other hand, the UCF O should certainly be good enough to hold up their end of the bargain...potential QB pressure from LV being a large x-factor.

I think UCF warrants a 1u play with my line of thinking. Maybe they win SU, I tend to doubt it though, and am very aware that LV D stepping up and Bridgewater being on his 'A' game could lead to a comfortable win vs UCF, but even in that scenario the backdoor could be open unless some unforseen blunders befall UCF. I'm not a big totals guy, infact I might play a half dozen a year...my mind just doesn't seem to work that way, but an over might be a good play. Like I said, I'd be surprised if UCF D stops LV and UCF O should have success. Maybe a 35-27 type game?

Opinions on the total?
 
No time for much depth on the rest. Need to go and be productive this afternoon.

Thinking about Ohio State, their O hasn't had much of a breakout since Miller has been back at the helm. I see that changing this week. Respect Iowa front 7, more their LBs than the DL, but I don't see them having an advantage in the trenches or near the LOS. Think that secondary can be had as well.

Iowa's passing game isn't going to beat any quality team. They might be able to grind out some drives and first downs, but see them having a hard time cashing them in for points. Envisioning Iowa in the 13-20 range and certainly feel the Bucks can top 40.

Then there is the Meyer factor. I think the guy is a prick, but he is excellent coach and he will put the hammer down when given the chance. And taking into account what the remaining schedule is and what the public perception of the team will be, I think Meyer will want his team to have some flashy plays and scores vs the lesser teams, such as Iowa. Add the bye week into the mix and it makes the difference for me to play Ohio St here. If they faced Iowa immediately after Wisky and NW I'd stay away probably. Batteries recharged..hard to not see a blow out in the Shoe this week and get some second half momentum and buzz going.
 
Respect many of the people I see on WVU this week and I completely understand. So seeing line drop is welcomed by me as I didn't want to lay many here. I think Tex Tech is superior O and D, but will take pause at the travel and Holgerson off bye week. Still, don't believe this team is good enough at QB or D to really beat Tech. Intangibles maybe. I probably make it a .5u unless the bottom falls out of the spread.

Gut call on Oklahoma. I've seen a good bit of Kansas games this year (unfortunately). Against them vs LT, against them vs TT, on them vs TCU and I just see a team that is really struggling to do much of anything good. This is a very lazy pick by me, but Oklahoma, even in a let down spot after Texas, could potentially shut Jayhawks out. Don't see anything about KU D I like unless OU beats themselves. Think OU scores 28-45 and KU 0-13.

Arizona hasn't played a good 4 qrt game vs anybody worth a damn this year. They do now get a home game though for first time in a month and after this they travel to back-to-back roadies again. Maybe they figured out some things vs USC late...or maybe USC lost interest. Utah D is not USC. Also playing against Utah in light of the Stanford win. Didn't Anderson or somebody say that beating Stanford felt like winning the national championship? Yeah, I'll take Zona at 0-2 in conf with desperation in their eyes vs the team that just celebrated their biggest win in any of those players' college careers.
 
I think Indiana might deserve a look as well.

The only effective offense Mich has is Gardner's running...and Funches. They can't run the ball with their RBs (unless Green can emerge maybe?) and Gardner throwing down field or in pocket has to make all Mich fans nervous.

IU O should be able to find some spots vs Mich pass D. I know that few teams have had a big deal of success against the D, but IU O can present some problems. Hoosiers had a decent game vs Mich St offensively relative to the kind of D Spartans have. The going should get easier this week for them.

Didn't like it when the line fell to 7, but near 10 I'm interested again. Michigan has not followed up disappointing games with better games so far this year, not sure why I should expect it to start now. That was a tough loss last week and the same problems they had all year have not gone away.
 
Oklahoma State

Going against the grain with Oklahoma St. I’m betting on the fact that they get some things figured out during the bye week.

Ok St

What are the Cowboys missing 2013 compared to 2012? QB JW Walsh is off and the running game has struggled to replace Randle. 3 OLs depart (although Phil Steele lists 3 ret starters) and expected starting LT Devin Davis is out. Jeremy Smith should be a good enough RB and all the top receiving options return.

Frosh K Ben Grogan has been shaky, missed 2 FGs at WVU, but did hit 4 of 5 in the K St win (named Big 12 ST POW).

Last game vs K St, yards were even at 330, and Ok St did benefit from a 5-1 TO ratio. K ST did ret a blk’d FG 65y for a TD and Ok St kicked FGs from the 13, 26 (blk’d), 17 (after KSt fum), 6 (after KSt fum) and 11 (after KSt INT). Those all those K St TOs didn’t end up hurting as bad as they could have. In 9 RZ attempts vs Big 12 Ok St has just 3 TDs (4 FG). It is a point of emphasis during the bye.

Side note as it relates to OK ST, is Kansas St D as bad as maybe we thought it was, or could be? Played pretty well vs Baylor last week only allowed 114 rushing yards (3.08 ypc).
​

TCU CB Jason Verrett may be the Big 12’s best CB, but Ok St has a top CB of their own in Justin Gillbert. Kipper has Verrett the #7 CB, Gillbert #9. LBs Caleb Lavey and Shaun Lewis have each been named B12 D POW (vs Miss St and WVU respectively) and DT Calvin Barnett (Big 12 Newcomer of year ‘12) is said to be mid round NFL prospect. It’s a solid DL in atleast 3 of 4 starting spots. Cowboys think they have a pretty good D, Gundy thinks it is his best and vs TCU’s struggling O it wouldn’t appear one need to be elite D to slow the Frog O.

TCU

Lot’s not to like about this O. Just 380y vs KU which is below the avg KU allows and well below what La Tech and TT put on Jayhawks. Only 210y vs OU and 335 vs SMU – nearly 100y below the avg both OU and SMU give up. Vs OU their first 7 drives were all 3-and-out! It wasn’t until they drove to kick a FG into the 3rd qrt then recover an onside kick that the O showed any signs of life. Offensive struggles continued the next week vs KU. A few weeks back vs SMU Frogs only had 126 1st half yards (trailed 7-10 halftime). Their O did get going in the 2nd half, but the eventual 48 pts for the game were boosted by a 66y INT ret and an onside kick returned for TD. Their 16.5 FGs pg are bad enough to rank 116th nationally among the likes of UMass, Purdue, UConn – not good.

Boykin has just a 5-4 ratio and just 1-4 ratio in Big 12 play. Good rushing games by him vs TT and KU (172y combined) are offset by poor rushing efforts vs SMU and OU (27y combined).

TCU does field outstanding KO and punt ret units (4th and 18th ncaa respectively).

I don’t want to overstate this, but TCU D, well teams that can run do on TCU. LSU, SE La, Oklahoma all avg 200 ypg (4.6) vs Frogs rushing. Good thing for them that Ok St has not been a good running team so far this year. Pass D is another matter, best unit Frogs faced was LSU who comp just 50% 251y. They did well vs TT (frosh QB) and OU. They are a legit top 20 top 25 pass D by most measures and despite the numbers they’ve allowed on the ground they are still a good unit holding KU to under 200 TY and SMU under 300. 22 sacks, 7 vs SMU.

DE Fields is out, but he’s been suspended / banged up and hasn’t had an impact this year for them (‘12 Big 12 D POY).

2012 36-14 Ok St (-6’)

Holding TCU under 20 points was viewed as quite the accomplishment they had ncaa leading 33 games with 20+ at the time. However, TCU would fail to score atleast 20 pts in 3 more times if you include the bowl. Notably they’ve also failed to reach 20 pts 2x this season.

Frogs jumped out 7-0 on 11y INT ret TD and 14-0 following an 83y drive and that was all she wrote as TCU O sputtered after that (just 14% 3rd down).

471-344 TY, 147-121 RY and 324-223 PY edges for OK St plus a 3-2 positive TO ratio.

Line about the same as last year and Ok St not as good, but TCU appears to not be as well.

Conclusion

Again, I’m betting on Ok St getting their shit fixed, bye week can only do them good here. Also betting that atleast a decent Cowboy D can handle a TCU O that I do not respect much. Misleading SMU final for them, unimpressive games at OU and vs KU. Fearful of Frog D, especially with regard to potential INTs and short field or even Frog scores. OK St has not lived up to hype, not played like a would-be Big 12 Title contender – this everyone on the team and coaching staff knows. Time to right the ship.
 
Homer analysis from Redraiders.com

Tech vs West Virginia Matchups

Posted: October 18, 2013 - 11:22pm | Updated: October 19, 2013 - 12:08am

Stephen Spillman / AJ Media
Texas Tech's Pete Robertson puts pressure on Iowa State's Sam Richardson during their game on Saturday in Lubbock. (Stephen Spillman/AJ Media)

When Tech runs

Tech had three rushers top 80 yards in the same game last week for the first time since 1973. There could be more in store from DeAndre Washington, Sadale Foster and Kenny Williams, considering West Virginia has allowed four 100-yard rushers in six games: Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk (172) and Shock Linwood (126), Oklahoma’s Brennan Clay (170) and Georgia State’s Travis Evans (118). The Mountaineers are 106th against the run, but Tech C Jared Kaster has to neutralize NTs Shaq Rowell and Kyle Rose, who have eight tackles for loss between them.
Advantage: Texas Tech.

When Tech passes

The Red Raiders must keep tall DT Will Clarke (61/2 tackles for loss, 3 sacks) away from QB Davis Webb (965 yards, 9 TD passes), who needs good judgment. West Virginia has intercepted eight passes — four by S Darwin Cook — and returned two for touchdowns. The Mountaineers have to devise a plan for TE Jace Amaro (47-606-1), who had five catches for a career-high 156 yards and a TD in last year’s game. With Amaro, Eric Ward (34-404-3), Jakeem Grant (30-394-3) and Bradley Marquez (25-342-5), the Red Raiders are No. 3 in passing offense, but picks could be poison. Tech’s thrown 10, more than all but nine teams in the nation.
Advantage: Texas Tech.

When WVU runs

Don’t be deceived by West Virginia’s No. 85 rank in rushing offense. Charles Sims (97-480-4 rushing, 19-179-0 receiving) has two 100-yard games, and JC transfer Dreamius Smith has broken runs of 75 and 51 yards. Sims was all-conference caliber during his three years at Houston, and caught 10 passes for 122 yards during the Cougars’ 29-28 win against Tech in 2009. However, Tech has surprised with the nation’s No. 17 rushing defense, led by NG Kerry Hyder (nine tackles for loss) and ILBs Will Smith (38 tackles) and Sam Eguavoen (25 tackles).
Advantage: Texas Tech.

When WVU passes

West Virginia’s new QB-receiver combos have yet to click in a big way. Like Tech, the Mountaineers are choosing week to week from three QBs: Clint Trickett, Paul Millard and Ford Childress, each of whom has thrown for between 400 and 600 yards. Childress (torn pectoral muscle) reportedly is out for Saturday’s game, though the starter hasn’t been named. Edge rushers Branden Jackson and Pete Robertson will try to pressure them into bad passes, giving S Tre Porter and CB Bruce Jones chanches for tide-turning plays. The Mountaineers have spread the ball among four wideouts, led by Daikiel Shorts (19-218-2), Kevin White (17-244-3) and Ronald Carswell (16-330-2).
Advantage: Texas Tech.

Special teams

Tech will try to recover from a bad special-teams performance last week that included allowing a kickoff-return TD, a big punt return and a turnover by the punt-return team. PK Ryan Bustin (13 of 16 field goals) remains second in the nation in FGs, but Tech auditioned other punt-return candidates this week after struggles by Sadale Foster and Carlos Thompson. West Virginia hasn’t returned any kickoffs or punts more than 38 yards, but the Mountaineers have a stellar punt team: They’re seventh in the nation in net punting, and P Nick O’Toole averages 44.6 yards with 15 of 50-plus and 13 inside the 20.
Advantage: West Virginia.

How we see it

A-J staff writer Don Williams: Tech 34, West Virginia 24

A-J staff writer Krista Pirtle: Tech 24, West Virginia 20
Click to expand...
 
“Something about Central Michigan is we haven’t won at Central Michigan since 2005,” Volk said. “We really want to go there and show what we can do. We have a chip on our shoulder to really want to push people around.”
Click to expand...

Still a little scared, encouraged by more line movement, down to 14 now. I like hearing a team like NIU saying they have a chip on their shoulder vs a team like CMU.
 
I like NIU today to put up big points. Lavelli will keep Central around for a while but NIU will get their 40 for sure and hard to see Central within 17 when it's all said and done. Good luck, hope all is well in the Valley.
 
Marsski said:
I like NIU today to put up big points. Lavelli will keep Central around for a while but NIU will get their 40 for sure and hard to see Central within 17 when it's all said and done. Good luck, hope all is well in the Valley.
Click to expand...

Seems reasonable.

Things good here. Hope today treats you good Mars.
 
Probably going to have to take a stab with Wash St. Now, I've lost a total of 2.75u betting against Oregon 3 weeks straight and my ass hurts from it. But 40? Last time I took dog vs Oregon getting 40-ish I was beat by the weather (Cal lost by 1) and by .5 pt (Colorado). Wazzou better than both, Ducks in potential let down spot, hopefully the weather cooperates this time. I'm in a rut on this Oregon shit.

The way the lines are set up and the way I am hoping most of them move I will probably be putting in just a handful at a time throughout the day.
 
Two Utes said:
GL! UNC and UCF have been kind so far, keep it rolling.
Click to expand...

Thanks Utes.

Yes 3-0 +3.5u nice way to come into Saturday plays.

Just got a bunch of line movement, most in my favor. So far, will add throughout day:

1u
Ok St -5'
Ohio St -19
UCLA +5

.5u
Tex Tech -5
Cincy -14
WYO -5

Yet to come:
NIU, IND, Okla, Ole Miss, Wazzou, Zona - maybe Mary, Houston, Nev & Nev Ov, Ore St
 
.5u
NIU -14
Houston +10

Got a weird gut feel on NIU. I want it for 1u, but just a little bit scared...
 
Front door covers by NIU and TT today...would have liked OU to help me out. Didn't really deserve it in that one, but could've.

1u
Ole Miss +10
 
1u
Wash St +39

.5u
ILL +14'
Nev +24
Nev O 67
Arz -3'
Ore St -10

Don't know why I like ILL. Didn't know why I liked Aub either so didn't play it. Better for me to play something I think I like and see it lose than not play it and see it win, I'm just that way.

Would maybe put more on Arz, but since that game not on TV for me I don't know.

Should have called it a day after the early games.
 
Now I'm stuck with computer on my lap watching Utah-Arz gamecast.

Is there a way to watch that game online without PAC 12 Network?
 
your early thoughts were dead on
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess they were. But 6 games on a Saturday would never be enough for me, need like triple that to satisfy myself.

+.4u yesterday, woohoo! Good week in all though.

1u (4-4 = -.4u)
W - Ok St -5'
L - Ohio St -19
L - UCLA +5
L - Oklahoma -21
L - Indiana +8
W - Ole Miss +10
W - Wash St +39
W - Arizona -3'

.5u (6-4 = +.8u)
W - Tex Tech -5
W - Cincy -14
L - WYO -5
W - NIU -14
W - Houston +10
L - Maryland -4'
L - ILL +14'
W - Nev +24
L - Nev O 67
W - Ore St -10

Thurs / Fri

UNC, UCF, UCF Ov = +3.5u

+3.9u for the week.

A couple things that stick with me 24 hrs or so later:

The Oklahoma game wasn't too far off from hitting despite surprisingly allowing KU 19 pts and only winning by 15. Huge 3rd qrt INT at KU 25 for Sooners killed some momentum (score there could have made it 19 pt game) and KU also blk'd a 2nd half punt for TD. OU had some chances to break one from the KU 20 as time was winding down. I would bet that game again if they played tomorrow. KU only had 201y offense.

Just too nervous on NIU to go full unit even though I wanted to, looking at box score they shouldn't have needed the late score to get the cover. Blew a couple 1st half scoring opportunities. CM O was nearly nonexistent in the 2nd half.

4th qrt INTs just killed me with Indiana, it was just a 2 pt game early in the 4th qrt before an INT directly led to a short Mich TD and a second INT stopped an IU drive deep in Mich terr and eventually led to another Blue TD. I might bet that game again, but probably only if I got a couple more pts for insurance.

Otherwise I'm cool with most everything, that and I had best NFL day of the year so it was my best week betting of the year.
 
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