Rugby World Cup - Day 2

[BetCrimes1984]

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DAY 2


Content to watch the first few days. One thing becoming rapidly clear is the Northern hemisphere sides really suck donkey dick (Italy ranked 4th amongst them? oh dear).

I like Canada plus the points for my strongest lean amidst these early games, but I'm struck by a line that seems designed to suck in Canadian money, based on -

Canada beat the USA 51-10 (my memory being right - if not that exact scoreline, something very similar) in a WC build up, while England in a recent match smashed Wales 62-5. So England opens -52.5 vs the USA, but Wales is -28/29.5 vs Canada? The gulf between the USA and Canada (roughly 40 points) says that if the US gets 50 odd vs England, then Canada would be getting no more than 35-40 vs England - so they get around a try less vs Wales?, when Wales is simply not England's equal (even taking into account the variables - venues, etc - involved in the above results), says something doesn't sit right here.

However, I will take a shot at the +1100 I can get for the Canada/Wales halftime/fulltime double. Canada lived with the AB's for a half in New Zealand, and Wales on the road with an ugly build up might just take a half of football to get into this WC. Play this game 10 times, I certainly give Canada the lead at halftime more than once. These odds dont require breaking the bank for a decent return.

 

[rod_steel]

Love the thought process BC, actually took the Canucks +14.5 on the first half handicap myself. Wales with one eye to next Saturday as well.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BOL rod. I think either Wales come out flying, or the Canucks fluke a try somewhere in there and make things interesting. Seems to me this line reflects the books really reading a lot into Wales decent history against the Canucks.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Halftime: Canada 12-9 Wales

Congrats on the easy win, rod. Even the ref whistling Canada off the park couldnt stop them, but Wales have started to put a few of their stronger guys on the park I see.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Alistar - Wales has put on a lot of their first team players (which I noted was taking place in my last post), hence they now lead 23-17, and look a much better team than they did in the first half.

(I'd have replied earlier but I'm watching the game, so I didn't see your post).

 

[rod_steel]

Well done BC, great hit mate :smiley_abcs:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, rod. Wales lead by 25 w/12 minutes to go. The first half was def. where the Dog options were alive.

 

[rod_steel]

BC here is something for you to look into.

Obviously working off a small sample at the moment given we are only in day 3 of the competition but have you noticed that the 'minnow' nation give a full concerted effort in the first half (covering the 1H number) only to fall apart in the second half which is simply down to tiredness..

So hypothetically if you were to back the underdog to cover the 1H and at HT switch sides and get on the favourite to cover the smaller full game number in the second half (assuming the 1H underdog play cashes) I believe you may be able to cash on both sides. Apart from NZ-Italy (where obviously NZ blew away the Italians in the first half) and the USA-England game (where you would have cashed in the 1st half anyway) pretty sure every other match has followed this trend.

EDIT: Of course I forgot about Argentina-France from opening night but assuming you have the in game betting option you could easily have made a bundle if you had Argentina at the + as your starting position.

 

[rod_steel]

Australia-Japan as an example from last night - at HT Australia were laying 'only' 53.5 (compared to the 68 odd starting line)

Tonight Wales laying 13.5 at HT ( when they were down 17-8 Wales were laying -4.5 on Centrebet!!! compared to the 28.5 starting price)

The great thing for me is that Centrebet are offering in game betting for ALL pool games so you can basically pick your spots as to when to get on the favourite, tonight being a classic example because Wales in the first 10min of second half were laying single digits...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

rod, I appreciate the "template" you're talking about. Obviously the other side is what the AB's did, which is come out full tit, blow the minnow away, and then taper off in the second half after being up by so much (something I personally think will happen in the SAF/SAM game). So if 1 particular version of the 2 'templates" is predominating early, my statistical bent would be it invites the other to 'show up" somewhere down the track to balance things out. I think you're on to it regarding some of the lesser top nations who maybe looking forward to harder opponents - Wales providing that exact scenario here tonight. I've only the TAB & Centrebet, and neither is flexible enough re: rugby live betting for my liking (I'll add I wasn't paying enough attention to see that -4.5 line, thou I already had an investment in them anyway), to get overly interested.

I'll have to start taking more care.

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I'm off to bed (part of my problem with this time difference), so I'll have to pass on any live betting for the rest of today's games, and theres nothing I really want prior to gametime. I have a feeling the Boks come out with some fire after seeing Oz and NZ go first, that would be my biggest lean, but Samoa are still an unknown to me.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Minnows ATS have actually won more than lost, I think. Not going to call Italy a minnow, since they compete in 6N. Obviously, won't call Argentina one, and won't call Samoa a minnow. Fiji and Tonga.......minnows.

So far:

Argentina/France......no minnow
Italy/NZ......no minnow
Australia/Japan..........minnow loses
USA/England.........minnow wins
Canada/Wales..........minnow wins
Samoa/The Republic........no minnow
Scotland/Portugal...........minnow wins
Ireland/Namibia........minnow wins

After 3 days, minnows are 4-1. Wallabies only team to cover a minnow for now. I do look for this trend to change, though.

Cheers

 

[claycourtlesson]

Just sort of checking the upcoming matches......only line I see is Argentina Pumas-45.5 vs Goergia Minnows

Ya'll think the public will load up on the Pumas after what they did to France? I think so, but still hard to imagine the Georgia Minnows getting inside 45.5.

 

[claycourtlesson]

Pumas in the pool with France and Ireland........they can still get their needed bonus points even without covering the number vs the Georgia Minnows.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I need to check up on how far down the ladder in deciding things points differentials are. That Puma group could be a win 1-loss 1 vs each other for all 3 of the major teams in it, which would then bring in tie breaker facts if they end up tied in the standings: if pts for and against (or even most tries scored) feature, then what the Argies (need to) do against Georgia may have consequences for that spread.

A quick look at planet rugby's site has revealled no immediate sign of the rules for tied spots in the pools, but it says elsewhere

Argentina have made six changes for Tuesday's clash with Georgia, in an attempt to keep bodies fresh after the bruising win against France.

which automatically throws a spanner into the works regarding that spread.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BTW, nice pointing out of those minnow results, clay.

I think you might find the worst spot for minnows will be either the last group games any have vs decent teams (with the latter looking for momentum into the knock-out stage), or facing a decent team when that team is off a loss.

 

[claycourtlesson]

They still have to play, but I will be SHOCKED if Pumas lose to Ireland. Pumas clearly a better outfit. Injury is only thing that could fuck their ability to get to knockout.

And yeah, Georgia Minnows getting 45.5 against a second team Puma outfit throws a wrench into this one, for sure.

Cheers

 

[rod_steel]

Problem with the Pumas is that they no longer are 'flying under the radar' when it comes to their showdown against the Paddys hence their shock value no longer exists to Ireland.

I know the Irish were far from impressive against lowly Namibia but end of the day it comes down to their matches against both France and Pumas...they will be ready IMO, not saying they will necessarily win both games but look for a much improved effort.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

No real opinion from me on those, Alistar, but BOL:shake: