RUDY's April 2013 MLB Picks Thread

[RudyNYC]

Hello to all here at CTG! It looks like there are many with a lot of baseball knowledge here. I plan on posting a few plays almost daily provided time permits. I will start a new thread each month. Each play will be graded either 1 unit or 1.5 or 2 units. Lines will be predominately from 5Dimes although I (and I encourage all to do the same) will shop around mostly on totals.

March 31 - OPENING DAY:

997 Texas Rangers -1.5 runs +108 1 unit

Right out of the box with a run line play; too many reasons not to hit the RL and I typically avoid big ML favorites. Although Rangers' lineup suddenly looks old, I believe there is enough punch to overpower an Astros team that still looks like a bunch of guys who showed up at Minute Maid Park with their gloves and got a place on the roster. I believe we have the better pitcher in Matt Harrison Ford (48-30 career W/L and 1.38 WHIP) vs. Bud Chuck Norris (28-37, 1.40) - with Norris you get strikeouts or no outs! No Astro starting batter hit over .290 last year and the 'Stros have a very scary relief staff - look for yourself! Bottom line, same old Astros team no matter what league. Besides, Rangers are 10-2 vs. Astros in Houston and 20-6 overall.

Are we having fun yet?

GL,
Rudy

 

[STEED]

Welcome and GL

 

[GameHunter]

Welcome.....I think you are underrating Norris' home/road splits. To say he gets "strikeouts or no outs" at home avoids the fact that he was one of the most dominant home pitchers in the major leagues last year. Based upon that, I disagree wholeheartedly tht Harrison has a pitching advantage. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't cover -1.5 runs but I do disagree with those points. Best of luck and welcome.

 

[RudyNYC]

Welcome.....I think you are underrating Norris' home/road splits. To say he gets "strikeouts or no outs" at home avoids the fact that he was one of the most dominant home pitchers in the major leagues last year. Based upon that, I disagree wholeheartedly tht Harrison has a pitching advantage. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't cover -1.5 runs but I do disagree with those points. Best of luck and welcome.

I recognize Norris' prowess at home. But that might be one of those stats that evens out over time so I do not put much weight on it. Regardless, I do not see either pitcher going more than six innings unless one is lights out with a low pitch count. Game will most likely be won in the late innings. Furthermore, I am banking on the ineptitude of the Astros' pen for the Rangers cover on the RL. We'll see - long season.

btw - I love the back and forth dialogue - hope many partake season long

Rudy

 

[Schrute]

Good discussion

Welcome to the site Rudy

 

[bloodhound]

good thoughts Rudy
GL this season

 

[RudyNYC]

0-1 -1.00 units (Looks like Rangers did, in fact, get old overnight - will be a long season in Arlington. Harrison did his job but got no support)

Back with a matinee play shortly.

Rudy

 

[RudyNYC]

April 1 - REAL OPENING DAY:

904 NY Mets -137 1.5 units
Short write-up: Today we are siding with the a team who has lots to prove. They could not find a softer spot than a home affair vs. Volquez and the Pods. Volquez is 0-4 lifetime vs. Mets and did not last 2 innings in his last start versus last August. Look for Ike Davis to take him long and Wright to get his customary two hits. Mets lineup has lots of punch. Provided they stay healthy, they should beat up on the lesser teams. They will today!

(NOTE: I will be on the OVER in this one and post it as a play should the total move to 7)

GL,
Rudy

 

[RudyNYC]

4/1 Added Plays:

903 SD/NYM OVER 7.5 +102 1 unit
Liked this from the get-go but has not moved to the desired 7. Have noon meeting so will post at 7.5 - will wait to right before gametime to play it and suggest you wait too. Smarter play might be NYM OVER Team Total - I'll be on that too.

915 BOS/NYY OVER 8 +104 1 unit
These two have a history of lighting up the scoreboard when they meet. Wind has bigger effect at Yankee Stadium than at the new-Shea (still refuse to call it Sh_tty Field - story for another day) and winds are supposed to pick up as the afternoon moves on. Also, blowing out (in both parks).

Most likely back later with a play on Giants but need to check on a few things when I get back.

GL,
Rudy

 

[RudyNYC]

Early games seem to be going well - need a few more runs at the Stadium.

4/1 Final Added Plays :

(Sorry, no write-ups)

911 Phils -106 (F5) 1 unit

913 StL/Az UNDER 4.5 +100 (F5) 1.5 units

923 LAA/Reds OVER 7.5 +100 1.5 units


GL,
Rudy

 

[RudyNYC]

Results:

Last: 3-3, -0.50 (includes terrible 5 inning loss on the UNDER in Ariz - first stinger of season)
Season: 3-4, -1.50

NOTE: not using this thread going forward. Will follow the norm here and open daily threads.

Rudy