Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
GL GW, I played the under. Hoping for a tight one.
Rockies Season Thread
- Thread starter GWarner27
- Start date
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i assume that held for you johnny, shouldn't have even been close based on how well both starters fared...
COL bullpen lost the last three games now, may be starting to show some signs of possibly not being perfect as we hit mid-June
Current line:
06/14 19:05 ET Colorado -111 @ Pittsburgh: Marquez vs Kuhl
Not backing COL for the sixth straight day here for a few reasons, the main one being Marquez's ineffectiveness since trying to catch a comebacker with his bare hand. Not sure what that's done to him, but he hasn't been sharp since. Kuhl really struggled to start the year when I thought he would improve quite a bit on solid numbers last year that were missing K's. He's shown 97 at times, but I'm not really sure I want to trust him just yet.
COL has the far better lineup and a more trustworthy pen despite leaking oil recently, but I gotta think there's some value on PIT tonight going for the sweep on the last day of a road trip for COL. CarGo has the night off as he tries to get out of a slump, but he's a much bigger threat than Tapia so that's a loss. PIT counters going without Freese and Mercer, which is a bigger loss when you consider how weak their lineup can be from time to time.
No play on the game tonight, but I'll guess a PIT win and over 9
COL bullpen lost the last three games now, may be starting to show some signs of possibly not being perfect as we hit mid-June
Current line:
06/14 19:05 ET Colorado -111 @ Pittsburgh: Marquez vs Kuhl
Not backing COL for the sixth straight day here for a few reasons, the main one being Marquez's ineffectiveness since trying to catch a comebacker with his bare hand. Not sure what that's done to him, but he hasn't been sharp since. Kuhl really struggled to start the year when I thought he would improve quite a bit on solid numbers last year that were missing K's. He's shown 97 at times, but I'm not really sure I want to trust him just yet.
COL has the far better lineup and a more trustworthy pen despite leaking oil recently, but I gotta think there's some value on PIT tonight going for the sweep on the last day of a road trip for COL. CarGo has the night off as he tries to get out of a slump, but he's a much bigger threat than Tapia so that's a loss. PIT counters going without Freese and Mercer, which is a bigger loss when you consider how weak their lineup can be from time to time.
No play on the game tonight, but I'll guess a PIT win and over 9
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
10-12 -0.17u YTD now after that Greinke loss last Tuesday...
COL enters tonight having lost five straight thanks to a disastrous performance from the bullpen yesterday, mainly Ottavino who uncorked three or four wild pitches to score the go-ahead runs in what eventually became a lopsided loss. First real adversity of the season for COL and they put CarGo on the DL today with no Dahl to replace him.
Current line:
6/26 22:05 ET San Francisco -136 vs. Colorado: Samardizja vs. Marquez
Bud Black doing indefensible things replacing CarGo with Raimel Tapia in the 5th spot in the lineup. The best I can do is guess that he doesn't want to split up the Desmond-Story-Wolters 6-7-8, but it's completely ridiculous and could cost him tonight's game. As a RSW under bettor who is holding on to a glimmer of hope that they don't win 81 games I am happy, but as somebody considering a COL play I do not like what I see.
Samardizja has been a bit unlucky this year as he seems to have nasty stuff striking guys out left and right, but getting no support. I think that's a thing for all SF pitchers, but definitely Shark specifically. Marquez, on the other side, started the year off slowly before getting hot. He seemed to lose some of his momentum when he tried to barehand a comebacker, but has righted the ship a bit.
We already discussed the joke lineup with Tapia hitting 5th, but Bochy doesn't have a ton besides Posey in his. In terms of a long lineup, SF has that, but they haven't hit much this year and will need to win a low-scoring game. I much prefer the strengths of the COL lineup and consider it much longer than SF, plus they have the more trustworthy bullpen despite what we saw yesterday.
SF has been a dumpster fire all season long and I don't really see that changing, so catching more than a quarter's worth of odds on the far better team so far this year doesn't seem to make sense. I'm going to play COL, but it seems like the market likes SF tonight so I'm going to wait until closer to first pitch to lock.
COL enters tonight having lost five straight thanks to a disastrous performance from the bullpen yesterday, mainly Ottavino who uncorked three or four wild pitches to score the go-ahead runs in what eventually became a lopsided loss. First real adversity of the season for COL and they put CarGo on the DL today with no Dahl to replace him.
Current line:
6/26 22:05 ET San Francisco -136 vs. Colorado: Samardizja vs. Marquez
Bud Black doing indefensible things replacing CarGo with Raimel Tapia in the 5th spot in the lineup. The best I can do is guess that he doesn't want to split up the Desmond-Story-Wolters 6-7-8, but it's completely ridiculous and could cost him tonight's game. As a RSW under bettor who is holding on to a glimmer of hope that they don't win 81 games I am happy, but as somebody considering a COL play I do not like what I see.
Samardizja has been a bit unlucky this year as he seems to have nasty stuff striking guys out left and right, but getting no support. I think that's a thing for all SF pitchers, but definitely Shark specifically. Marquez, on the other side, started the year off slowly before getting hot. He seemed to lose some of his momentum when he tried to barehand a comebacker, but has righted the ship a bit.
We already discussed the joke lineup with Tapia hitting 5th, but Bochy doesn't have a ton besides Posey in his. In terms of a long lineup, SF has that, but they haven't hit much this year and will need to win a low-scoring game. I much prefer the strengths of the COL lineup and consider it much longer than SF, plus they have the more trustworthy bullpen despite what we saw yesterday.
SF has been a dumpster fire all season long and I don't really see that changing, so catching more than a quarter's worth of odds on the far better team so far this year doesn't seem to make sense. I'm going to play COL, but it seems like the market likes SF tonight so I'm going to wait until closer to first pitch to lock.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
10-13 -1.06u now YTD thanks to a pretty uninspired effort from COL yesterday despite having lost five straight. Marquez was bad and Samardizja finally got some support, so I was just way off on it...
Current line:
6/27 22:15 ET Colorado -119 @ San Francisco: Hoffman vs Cain
Matt Cain is pretty much done and SF continues to start him because they're paying him a lot and are out of the playoff race. Hoffman, meanwhile, is a good young arm who looked like he was putting it together before getting rocked in at least his last start.
I expect COL to win tonight, but am not in a rush to back them after how lifeless they looked last night despite entering having lost five in a row to division rivals.
Black probably made his biggest managerial blunder of the season last night inserting Tapia in at the 5th spot in the lineup for DL'd CarGo, but he's not doing much better tonight putting Amarista in the 6th spot. That's a major hole in what used to be a long lineup and while I don't think Cain can take advantage, Black is hurting his team.
The COL bullpen wasn't good last night, but was hardly used. SF, on the other hand, used Strickland and Dyson in the 7th and 8th before the game got out of hand and neither are remotely trustworthy at all. COL had no business being in the game last night yet still had a shot to tie the game because the SF bullpen is that bad.
Part of me is going back-and-forth on playing COL tonight as I really don't like any part of their opponent, but I play very few favorites and even fewer favorites on the road.
If I had to guess the total, I'd say over 8.5, but it is the best under park in the game.
Current line:
6/27 22:15 ET Colorado -119 @ San Francisco: Hoffman vs Cain
Matt Cain is pretty much done and SF continues to start him because they're paying him a lot and are out of the playoff race. Hoffman, meanwhile, is a good young arm who looked like he was putting it together before getting rocked in at least his last start.
I expect COL to win tonight, but am not in a rush to back them after how lifeless they looked last night despite entering having lost five in a row to division rivals.
Black probably made his biggest managerial blunder of the season last night inserting Tapia in at the 5th spot in the lineup for DL'd CarGo, but he's not doing much better tonight putting Amarista in the 6th spot. That's a major hole in what used to be a long lineup and while I don't think Cain can take advantage, Black is hurting his team.
The COL bullpen wasn't good last night, but was hardly used. SF, on the other hand, used Strickland and Dyson in the 7th and 8th before the game got out of hand and neither are remotely trustworthy at all. COL had no business being in the game last night yet still had a shot to tie the game because the SF bullpen is that bad.
Part of me is going back-and-forth on playing COL tonight as I really don't like any part of their opponent, but I play very few favorites and even fewer favorites on the road.
If I had to guess the total, I'd say over 8.5, but it is the best under park in the game.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
glad i didn't play as the COL bullpen blew a late lead after Reynolds hit a go-ahead 3-run HR in the middle innings and then couldn't hold on before losing in extras. Now 7 L's in a row and the team is in free fall with all the love in the media turning to questions. Today's game against a last place team is suddenly a big one...
Current line:
6/28 15:45pm ET Colorado -114 @ San Francisco: Freeland vs Blach
Black got tattooed by NYM last time out at home and it probably happens again today. Bud Black even decided to get his head out of his ass to stop putting the minor leaguers filling in for CarGo at 5th or 6th in the order.
COL also has the benefit of no Melancon, who hit the DL today despite a dominant inning last night. If they get swept with Strickland-Dyson as the "good" bullpen and a lineup missing Posey/Pence/Crawford/Span, they should probably quit on the season.
I like Freeland and expect he'll do well today against that AAA lineup. Not sure I want to play under with Blach's inability to miss bats, but in that park I guess I'd hold my nose and go under if I had to...
Current line:
6/28 15:45pm ET Colorado -114 @ San Francisco: Freeland vs Blach
Black got tattooed by NYM last time out at home and it probably happens again today. Bud Black even decided to get his head out of his ass to stop putting the minor leaguers filling in for CarGo at 5th or 6th in the order.
COL also has the benefit of no Melancon, who hit the DL today despite a dominant inning last night. If they get swept with Strickland-Dyson as the "good" bullpen and a lineup missing Posey/Pence/Crawford/Span, they should probably quit on the season.
I like Freeland and expect he'll do well today against that AAA lineup. Not sure I want to play under with Blach's inability to miss bats, but in that park I guess I'd hold my nose and go under if I had to...
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
have not succeeded in keeping up with this, but COL has been coming back to earth and i have some interest in today's game
Current line:
Colorado -155 vs. San Diego: Marquez vs. Perdomo
Marquez has been tough to predict as he has been better than expected this year, but part of me feels like some of that has been good fortune. Perdomo, on the other side, is a good arm who isn't known well enough by the MLB betting market as he seems to consistently be underpriced. He has a test tonight in Coors, but just because Marquez has had more starts there doesn't mean he's immune.
COL hasn't been playing well, but it seems like a bunch of their games have been blowouts lately that haven't put their bullpen in harm's way. They started to crack a bit towards the end of the 1H, but have more than overachieved so far this year so it's hard to say whether they'll keep it up or continue to pitch above their pay grade.
As for the lineup, Black isn't trotting out the best he has to say the least. Seeing Parra hitting cleanup makes me really scratch my head, must have some personal ownership or something to explain it. Or Bud is just throwing a L in a very important spot for no reason like he was doing with Tapia for a bit. Maybe it's that.
SD has some good young talent who can hit better than your father's Padres. I really like Margot, who was a huge get for Pomeranz last year, Pirela has been good. Sadly there is no Renfroe, who kills the ball, but I am already three people in and have yet to mention the best hitter on the team. Ian Desmond being back is big for COL, but the luster has worn off Reynolds at this point and Wolters hasn't been very good either.
This game likely comes down to how Perdomo performs vs the top of the lineup, which is going to be quite a test. I expect SD to be able to hold a lead late as they have a pen who has three trustworthy arms, which not many teams can say in this day. Not taking it yet, but I'm going to do some more research on Perdomo to see if this is worth a stab
Current line:
Colorado -155 vs. San Diego: Marquez vs. Perdomo
Marquez has been tough to predict as he has been better than expected this year, but part of me feels like some of that has been good fortune. Perdomo, on the other side, is a good arm who isn't known well enough by the MLB betting market as he seems to consistently be underpriced. He has a test tonight in Coors, but just because Marquez has had more starts there doesn't mean he's immune.
COL hasn't been playing well, but it seems like a bunch of their games have been blowouts lately that haven't put their bullpen in harm's way. They started to crack a bit towards the end of the 1H, but have more than overachieved so far this year so it's hard to say whether they'll keep it up or continue to pitch above their pay grade.
As for the lineup, Black isn't trotting out the best he has to say the least. Seeing Parra hitting cleanup makes me really scratch my head, must have some personal ownership or something to explain it. Or Bud is just throwing a L in a very important spot for no reason like he was doing with Tapia for a bit. Maybe it's that.
SD has some good young talent who can hit better than your father's Padres. I really like Margot, who was a huge get for Pomeranz last year, Pirela has been good. Sadly there is no Renfroe, who kills the ball, but I am already three people in and have yet to mention the best hitter on the team. Ian Desmond being back is big for COL, but the luster has worn off Reynolds at this point and Wolters hasn't been very good either.
This game likely comes down to how Perdomo performs vs the top of the lineup, which is going to be quite a test. I expect SD to be able to hold a lead late as they have a pen who has three trustworthy arms, which not many teams can say in this day. Not taking it yet, but I'm going to do some more research on Perdomo to see if this is worth a stab
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
sorry tuck, brutal one to swallow. I've now lost 13 games to blown saves and only won three
