Rockies Season Thread

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
After a new poster started offering StL thoughts on a daily basis and we always have the Tigers thread that starts talking about getting sauced in the cold on opening day and then trails off, I figured I'd see what I could do with the only team I have a season-long wager on so far. They are the Colorado Rockies and all thoughts/disagreements/Twitter follows/cash donations are accepted.

Full disclosure, I played COL u80.5 -110 to win 1-unit. I have always felt that whether I win or lose the season-long play, it usually gets me a couple units otherwise because I end up watching them as close to everyday as possible and generally have a good feeling for days when I know I'm gonna need a miracle to get a [result I need].

From my season predictions thread...

RSW (NL, WS):
COL 80.5 (2500, 5000)

COL is another offseason darling, but much bigger and I don't see it. Ottavino is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he's the closer type and I'm not sure he can be reasonably relied upon to keep leads for them. They basically have the lineup of relievers past their primes and while they were able to do it once in their careers, I don't see it happening this year and especially not in altitude in a park where no big hitters want to sit. The rotation is where all the problems start and, to be fair, that is improving. Anderson has a tricky delivery, but I wonder how he'll do when the book gets deeper. Bettis is dealing with cancer treatment and I hope he gets past it, but will be a hit to rotation depth. Jon Gray seems to have the arm, but hasn't put it together yet and who knows if he will at Coors. Chatwood another good pitcher who can really put up great numbers away from Coors, but again they play 81 games there. Rusin and Lyles being 4 and 5 potentially is a scary, scary thing so as usual the rotation depth is not here. They will have to outscore people and then hope it's enough that their bullpen won't give it away, not sure that happens. They can certainly hit, even with newcomer Ian Desmond missing about a month with a hand injury, but I question how he will do defensively at 1B. They don't have room for him in the OF barring injury without the DH, but they are very solid across all hitting positions so that's what they're built to do. I'm not a buyer, especially with a young catcher who needs to be able to help his staff and I don't see it.
 
I slept through the first three games, COL sits 2-1 thanks to stellar bullpen work after three very average performances from Gray, Anderson (W) and Chatwood (L).

Current line:
4/6 13:40 ET Colorado +110 @ Milwaukee (Bookmaker): Senzatela vs. Ch. Anderson

COL enters this game with some momentum lost thanks to not being able to hit Wily Peralta (shocking) nor the MIL pen (more shocking) on Wednesday. I did not see this one live, but Neftali Feliz had to be used to close a 6-1 game in the 9th. It was his first outing of the season so he should be available, as should the entire MIL pen as nobody worked b2b days. The same can be said for COL, but Jordan Lyles threw 38 pitches over two innings in what may be an attempt to get his arm ready to make some starts as COL has serious rotation depth issues that will only get bigger at Coors. I would expect no Lyles, but one thing COL did this season is re-tool its pen with a bunch of veteran arms who have done well in the past (but who knows if that will continue in the present, though they are off to a great start). I did not expect Greg Holland to win the closer role, but he seems to have taken it and has succeeded so far while Ottavino has taken the 8th. Mike Dunn is the lefty specialist and that is all the bullpen I want to discuss.

Senzatela is not someone I have seen pitch, but is a top prospect who will have some deception advantage having not thrown a pitch in the bigs either. I am very wary of rookies in their debuts, this is no exception. He has some fanfare, but without research on this team in preparing for my RSW play I would not have heard of him. With all that said, MIL is a terrible baseball team and the first two games I watched made me feel even worse about their chances this season.

Chase Anderson pitches to contact and that is not sustainable in 2017. He has some good outings from time-to-time, but he's got a really tough lineup to deal with that I doubt will see anybody besides maybe CarGo sitting tomorrow. He's a lefty so I'm not sure he will here, especially with Dahl and Desmond both out with injuries (even if Desmond is slated to play 1B). I can not understand who would feel comfortable giving odds away backing Anderson or his team, but realize they are at home and on get-away day. I expect this line to move toward the COL -115 opening number, so if you want to play COL: do it now.

For further clarification, Travis Shaw has been piping hot and does line up well as a lefty. Braun is always a rest candidate given his age and that he's the only thing MIL can really trade besides Feliz if he's having a good season at the deadline, but with a chance to get back to the .500 mark I'm not sure Counsell will do that. If he does, the line will plummet.

Nobody seemed to leave with injury today. Alan Porter behind the plate can be very generous and I'd think especially so on get-away day, but I've been surprised that he did not have very good under numbers in the past. The roof should be closed as the weather will be in the 40s, which will reduce ball flight and may force hitters to get a little more out of their swings to get the ball out of the park. I think that helps COL as they have the much deeper lineup and MIL looks like a team that will rely on the longball quite a bit this year.

Upon further review, I can't imagine Bud Black will sit CarGo or Parra or Blackmon tomorrow because he would be playing Reynolds/Amarista/Adames out of position just to give a guy a day off on the fourth day of the season.

Also looked deeper into Senzatela. He has battled shoulder problems in the past, but seems to be past them and did well in the spring to win this job plus he has a funky delivery. COL didn't have a ton of other choices, but he did beat out Hoffman and Freeland despite having less options than them. He can hit 96 and has a change+slider, but i doubt he goes too deep into the game because he has never been above AA and never threw more than 90 pitches in any of his starts last year nor got more than 18 outs. So besides Lyles, the COL pen may get some work tomorrow. While I did play the RSW under because of bullpen doubts, they were based on use over a long season of short starts from the rotation so this is about as healthy and capable as they can be. He seemed to have decent control in AA last year with a 27:9 K/BB ratio and in 2015 the most he walked was 3. He had a 21:3 ratio this spring and is probably why he won the job. Maybe fellow Venezuelan CarGo plays to support his countrymen, but that is pure conjecture.

Anderson surprisingly has reverse splits despite pitching to contact, retiring lefties at a better rate than righties, but I'm a seller long-term on him and his team.
 
excellent write up. brewers will be a good fade all season. This rockies offense always give them a good chance to win, especially against below average starters and bullpens
 
3-1 road trip with zero quality starts. The Brewers being terrible was helpful, but the COL bullpen was very good besides Ottavino getting beat on a fastball today. Senzatela pitched very well getting out of a bases loaded one-out situation in the 1st, but I think he will be hit going forward. Had some very good fastball location in counts that he needed it...

Current line:
4/7 4:10 ET Colorado +131 vs LAD (Bookmaker): Freeland vs Ryu

Considered playing LAD +100 at the BOL open, but wasn't ready to do so and clearly we have a very different line here thanks to a very big move. LHP Kyle Freeland is going to have his work cut out for him against a tough lineup, but after Clayton Richard diced them up earlier this week he may have a better chance than most think.

Not sure what to expect from LHP Ryu, but he was not healthy enough to return in 2016 so I think it's fair to say the jury is out on how he'll do this year despite having a good spring. In terms of matching up with the COL lineup, he'll be on the correct side to battle Blackmon/CarGo/Parra. LAD is the favorite in the division, but Ryu may be a little vulnerable here in his first start back and that probably only increases with the game being in altitude. The weather looks like it will cooperate and be in the 70s, which is great weather for baseball (though it may be a bit cool as I was in the park last summer on an 85-degree night and was far from too hot because of the thin air).

Hard to project how both starters will do, but I'd expect there to be runs early and often tomorrow. The total is 11.5, which seems high when compared to the rest of the league, but is fair although I expect consistent COL hitting and inconsistent pitching to possibly jump more totals in the 12 range than we've seen.

I'm still not a believer in the COL bullpen, but they were about as good as they could be in the opening series so maybe I need to start considering an adjustment. They need to avoid facing Jansen with a lead because he's about as automatic as it gets, but they should get to spend a bunch of time tomorrow with other LAD pitchers and that is good for their chances at winning their home opener.

I doubt I will make a play on this game as I would probably only consider LAD, but we'll see how far this one rises. I'll predict an LAD win and for it to go over the 11.5 total
 
Thanks for the play yesterday btw, I confidenly tailed you on that Rockies win/Brewers fade because your write-ups are so informative. Sleepy bats but a W is a W. BOL on what you decide today
 
If the rox bullpen is really as improved as people are saying it could really f up the over plays.
 
Not sure if Colorado bullpen is that good or was it more a reflection of how bad the brewers lineup is??? Im tempted to take the over even at 12, I leaned F5 over as I see Freeland getting rocked today and colorado being very capable of putting runs up on Ryu but over 7??? that is really high. Not sure what I'm gonna do with this one yet
LAD -.5 F5 looks good as I see Ryu fairing better then Freeland?
F5 over 7 would need a 5-3 type start, thats a lot of runs...?
over 12 colorado bullpen good or brewers lineup just bad?
LAD RL ?
 
nbafan88 said:
If the rox bullpen is really as improved as people are saying it could really f up the over plays.
Click to expand...

it certainly could, but i'm hoping they get used and abused this season because the rotation starts having real problems and gives them 5 IP or less. Plus a couple injuries from the old guys and they're in real trouble

RE: Dave-- i think Ryu could get hit hard today and expect that to be a more likely scenario than him throwing a gem, but I don't feel confident enough either way. It appears the market is either anti-Freeland or pro-Ryu, but that's a tough call, too
 
of course Dave Roberts decides to sit Seager and Adrian in the fourth game of the freakin season, only Parra sits for COL
 
How bad is Freeland I can't find anything about him anywhere? this lineup makes me want to take colorado but can't tail a pitcher blind
 
your guess is as good as mine, but i start with a dim view of prospects until they show me differently
 
Freeland pitched well enough against the platoons to earn COL's first QS of the season in game 5. Give him credit, but we'll see if he can keep it up. Holland worked a bunch so far so Black used McGee to close, and, keeping with the LAD can't hit LHP theme, he closed it out. I was way off on the game picking LAD and over, but fortunately did not put anything on it and my COL record stands at 1-0.

Current line:
4/8 20:10 ET Los Angeles -195 @ Colorado (Bookmaker): Kershaw vs. Gray

Today's performance was even more huge because COL has to deal with Kershaw tomorrow and then Maeda on Sunday. So no road sweep is in play and although Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet, that altitude can get to anyone and make any game close.

Gray got removed after 71 pitches in the opener because he gave away a big lead to a really bad team. He has the stuff, but is far from proven at harnessing it and will have to be very good tomorrow to beat Kershaw. It's very possible if he has a good start considering how LAD is currently hitting the ball, but I would say unlikely. If this team can improve on an already impressive 4-1 start with a Kershaw scalp on its wall, I should probably start being very concerned.

Morales is the ump tomorrow and I have barely heard of him/feel a bit embarrassed that I can't picture him because I could probably pick every MLB umpire out of a lineup as I used to study them quite a bit. Weather looks like it will be in the 60s, which will be cool but nothing unlike a night in Chavez Ravine.

Bullpens are pretty clean for both teams besides Estevez who worked the last two days, so he's probably down. Rest should be available, though there may not be a huge workload considering both aces are pitching tomorrow.

I'm gonna go with LAD wins, but it stays under the juiced 9/9.5s that are out there as Kershaw could pitch well enough to make it really tough for this one to go over. Would be very surprised if Gray beats him, but with how COL is currently pitching it's gotta be considered to be a possibility.
 
wrong again yesterday as Kershaw can't even beat this behemoth of a baseball team

Current line:
4/9 15:10 ET Los Angeles -120 @ Colorado (Bookmaker): Maeda vs Anderson

LAD is really pissing me off here as their bats have been very quiet despite being in Coors and despite facing a team that shouldn't be pitching this well. A lot of my season play was based on the top of the NL West being dominant, so we're off to a really poor start considering the LAD ineptitude at the plate and the SF bullpen.

As for today, Maeda comes in throwing a bunch of junk and after CarGo got the day off yesterday the lineup is almost full besides a day off for LeMahieu. Dave Roberts continues to look like a fool with his lineups, this time batting Franklin Gutierrez in the cleanup spot basically because he's RH. Bud Black is doing some interesting things on his lineup card, batting three L then three R and then three more L. That could be a problem in the late innings allowing LAD to use their bullpen, but Roberts may still screw it up.

I'm not laying anything on the LAD offense right now, especially not as a favorite on the road, but part of me thinks Anderson is going to get hit really hard when he's finally been seen enough by a single team. He tossed three QS vs LAD last year, though, so maybe they'll struggle again today against him despite the bigger book. Anderson's gotta be happy not to see Grandal in the lineup on what should be a normal day of rest, also Guti in the cleanup spot then unpredictable Puig hitting 5th and a nice arrival from Kike Hernandez who really struggled on Friday.

It looks like Dayton worked b2b days so he may be down, but there may be a bit of panic in the LAD clubhouse trying not to get swept by a division foe so maybe he's available. Gotta expect Jansen pitches today no matter what, which helps to lock up a big lead late or keep LAD in it if not for the usual save situation in which we'd expect to see him. McGee worked the last two and Black feels great right now so I'd expect Dunn to be the most important LHP in the bullpen today for COL.

I was expecting to see COL +120 today so the line is a bit light, but it should be based on how these teams are playing and not the preseason expectations or payrolls/names on the jerseys. I'm going to play Anderson, but going to wait until close to first pitch as this one may still climb yet
 
first loss in a COL games this year after terrible reads the entire series, though Anderson was bad today and each walk he seemed to give was followed by a HR. Happy to avoid a sweep, but 3-1 @MIL and 2-1 vsLAD is not how I expected the season to start tbqh. Could still end up in a sizable LAD advantage at the end of the season, but not off to a very good start...

Current line: n/a
4/10 20:40 ET Colorado vs. San Diego: Chatwood vs Cosart

Late pitching change as Cosart is in for Cahill and I guess I'm indifferent to it though I think I'd prefer Cahill's sinkerball tendencies even if his best game probably wouldn't match Cosart's best. LeMahieu should be back in the lineup tomorrow after getting most of today off until a late PH appearance, don't think anybody was injured so probably a full COL lineup. SD started in a hole and never emerged despite putting some pressure on Melancon in the 9th. They've shown some power early and that is needed in a place like Petco, but this team was projected to lose nearly 100 games so this should be a series win for COL.

Was very windy today, temps in the 50s near first pitch so it may be a really cold one tomorrow. Should have a huge total so that may affect some things, but looks to be sunny so no worries about getting the game played.

Chatwood was the only loser in Milwaukee and I'm surprised because he closed a favorite and wouldn't have guessed he'd be the one to lose. He is notorious for struggling at home and being great on the road, but he gets a chance to exorcise those demons tomorrow against one of the worst teams in the league. He likes to sink the ball, which is falling out of favor in 2017 as you're pretty much useless if you can't K people now. He doesn't do it a ton, despite having better stuff than you'd think, and will need to avoid the barrels tomorrow because SD looks like a team that is going to try to hit the ball out of the ballpark this year. Lefties fit with the sinker and maybe Schmipf takes him deep tomorrow, but this may be a lineup that even Chatwood could overpower.

I don't see a SD win tomorrow and would expect that runs may be tough to come by with the weather. No real feeling on the total, but probably should project over based on Chatwood's home record and Cosart plus the venue. So COL and over for record-keeping purposes.

Speaking of, actual COL bets 1-1 +0.1u YTD
 
GWarner27 said:
first loss in a COL games this year after terrible reads the entire series, though Anderson was bad today and each walk he seemed to give was followed by a HR. Happy to avoid a sweep, but 3-1 @MIL and 2-1 vsLAD is not how I expected the season to start tbqh. Could still end up in a sizable LAD advantage at the end of the season, but not off to a very good start...

Current line: n/a
4/10 20:40 ET Colorado vs. San Diego: Chatwood vs Cosart

Late pitching change as Cosart is in for Cahill and I guess I'm indifferent to it though I think I'd prefer Cahill's sinkerball tendencies even if his best game probably wouldn't match Cosart's best. LeMahieu should be back in the lineup tomorrow after getting most of today off until a late PH appearance, don't think anybody was injured so probably a full COL lineup. SD started in a hole and never emerged despite putting some pressure on Melancon in the 9th. They've shown some power early and that is needed in a place like Petco, but this team was projected to lose nearly 100 games so this should be a series win for COL.

Was very windy today, temps in the 50s near first pitch so it may be a really cold one tomorrow. Should have a huge total so that may affect some things, but looks to be sunny so no worries about getting the game played.

Chatwood was the only loser in Milwaukee and I'm surprised because he closed a favorite and wouldn't have guessed he'd be the one to lose. He is notorious for struggling at home and being great on the road, but he gets a chance to exorcise those demons tomorrow against one of the worst teams in the league. He likes to sink the ball, which is falling out of favor in 2017 as you're pretty much useless if you can't K people now. He doesn't do it a ton, despite having better stuff than you'd think, and will need to avoid the barrels tomorrow because SD looks like a team that is going to try to hit the ball out of the ballpark this year. Lefties fit with the sinker and maybe Schmipf takes him deep tomorrow, but this may be a lineup that even Chatwood could overpower.

I don't see a SD win tomorrow and would expect that runs may be tough to come by with the weather. No real feeling on the total, but probably should project over based on Chatwood's home record and Cosart plus the venue. So COL and over for record-keeping purposes.

Speaking of, actual COL bets 1-1 +0.1u YTD
Click to expand...


Lol please start giving official plays
Don't want u to sway people here.. ur thought have been pretty bad so far.
sorry kid
 
Dudleysdad...please take your trolling to covers.com. He provides a ton of awesome information that people need to read before making a reasoned betting decision. Just leave the thread and go invent a time machine that feeds you the insta-winners you seek...
 
dudleysdad said:
Lol please start giving official plays
Don't want u to sway people here.. ur thought have been pretty bad so far.
sorry kid
Click to expand...

yeah that Dylan Ennis kid sucks and will never do anything for Oregon, right Wade? Looking forward to your next alias
 
GWarner27 said:
yeah that Dylan Ennis kid sucks and will never do anything for Oregon, right Wade? Looking forward to your next alias
Click to expand...
He did a great job boxing out lol
25 yr old college player, I stand by it, he sucks
 
Chatwood was outdueled by Cosart in unexpected fashion, but I'll take it. He only went four innings and the SD bullpen was very good until their closer Maurer gave up a two-run shot to 2017 fantasy MVP Mark Reynolds, but that does concern me about days off coming up for the SD bullpen especially when you consider Richard only going 5 on Sunday. It should have been expected as Coors is that type of ballpark, but only Torres has worked b2b days so it looks like everybody's good for tomorrow and they'll likely need it...

Current line:
4/11 20:40 ET Colorado -175 vs. San Diego: Senzatela vs Jered Weaver

The lone winning bet I've made on COL games this year was on Senzatela in Milwaukee last week. He looked pretty calm for a rookie who had never been above AA making his debut in the bigs, but I wrote that I wasn't sure he'd be able to follow up the great success he had in that one. He has a big arm that can put him in the high-90s, plus a slider and a change-up that I think he only uses as a true change of pace. So SD should be ready to tee off on fastball-slider.

As I mentioned for today's game, SD was going to look to put the ball over the wall and they did it twice in the inning that saw the SD advantage climb from 1-0 to 4-0. Myers went for the cycle closing it off with a triple late, but Renfroe knocked one out as well. COL hit two themselves, which should be exactly what they try to do tomorrow against soft-throwing Jered Weaver.

Weaver is maybe throwing in the mid-80s, but somehow hasn't been transitioned to bullpen only just yet. Tomorrow may be the first step in that direction as he may throw a ton of BP tomorrow in the thin air as Coors may be the worst place out west to be an extreme flyball pitcher. It's good to know that Andy Green has almost all of his relievers available tomorrow, but I don't love that Buchter (LHP) and Maurer have already been seen in this series, nor that Maurer was taken deep tonight.

The line favors COL quite a bit and though I think the line is too large for Senzatela to support, I'm not sure I want to have my money behind Weaver on top of already rooting for him for my RSW play. If you are a strict value player, then SD is a fine play, but I'm trying to skip out on playing the really bad teams no matter how big the pricetags are because I'd rather live a few days longer/have a little more hair on my head as I try to convince Nina Agdal that I'm just as good as Leo.

It may be the longest under stretch in Coors history, but if there's a day for it to get busted up I'd say it's tomorrow as I think both SPs are primed to get hit. It's not going to be very warm tomorrow as again the temps will be in the low-60s at first pitch and getting colder, and home plate umpire Jeff Nelson has always been friendly to pitchers in my experience. So there are some reasons not to jump at the over either, but I'd expect an uncorrelated Rockies win and over the total tomorrow. 12 may also be the highest total you'll see, so it's going to take a lot to get there
 
Weaver somehow kept COL off balance to only allow 2 solo HR in 6 or so innings, but SD was unable to hold onto a 2-1 lead despite allowing only four hits on the day. I also wonder how Andy Green got so much praise from MLB analysts and reporters across the globe when he took the SD job because he left his hitless catcher in to make the final out with a RISP. And it was righty on righty too...

4/12 15:10 ET Colorado vs San Diego: Lee vs Freeland

For the second time this series, SD placed its probably starter on the DL the night before the game and had to call up somebody from AAA. It worked on Monday, but it's hilarious that they have now started AAA pitcher, Jered Weaver and AAA pitcher against my RSW under.

I don't know much about Lee, but Freeland was very sharp vs LAD whether they struggle with LHP or not and I would expect him to have success against a much thinner lineup tomorrow.

The game starting at 1:10 local time is usually perfect for overs, but for some inexplicable reason COL keeps playing really low-scoring games that also remain very close. You'd expect one of the teams to break out at some point, but it really hasn't happened besides Sunday's game vs LAD. I could see both pitchers getting hit tomorrow and the game going over, but after we've only seen one over in the first five games in Denver I would have to ride the trend of another under.

Holland was good enough tonight and the COL broadcast team was praising Ottavino for looking the best he has all season, so all is well in the bullpen who only had those two work and should have the entire pen available tomorrow. Meanwhile, Diaz pitched the last two nights for SD and looks like the only reliever who may not be available tomorrow.

I'll say COL and under since I have a gun to my head everyday when I write this
 
I like colorado a lot today. Their bats are too good (especially in colorado) to continue to not produce. I am beyond shocked they didn't crush weaver yesterday. If they don't hit around a last minute AAA call up (not a high prospect from what I can find) I will be left speechless. I don't have much confidence in Freeland, but as you mentioned he kept the Dodgers bats in check. Granted Dodgers can't hit lefties but this san diego lineup really isn't very good. colorado "should" easily outscore the padres at home in this matchup.
 
you could say COL should have outscored/hit a bunch of the pitchers they've seen, too. Think about the gauntlet they've faced:

Guerra
Davies
Peralta
Chase Anderson
Ryu
Kershaw (outlier)
Maeda
Cosart
Jered Weaver

Yet they're 6-3 averaging only 3.8 runs/game with five of those nine games at Coors. It gives me hope that this team isn't that good, but the lineup may get stronger when Desmond comes back if Dahl isn't ready because I think they'll slot him into LF vs LHP to keep Reynolds in the lineup at 1B
 
Definitely a concern. But they're facing a guy who probably doesn't belong in the majors. And if anywhere I look for Coors to be the place where Rockies bats wake up. I also don't like how the Padres have hit vs southpaws so far.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Definitely a concern. But they're facing a guy who probably doesn't belong in the majors. And if anywhere I look for Coors to be the place where Rockies bats wake up. I also don't like how the Padres have hit vs southpaws so far.
Click to expand...

i don't disagree, but you could say that about both Cosart and Weaver in the last two days. And both were at Coors
 
I still think this guy that they're facing is exceptionally poor. He's literally an emergency fill-in with zero positive track record in the majors. Freeland also matches up imo unusually well with Padres. Keep in mind he's also Denver-born, so he's used to altitude.
 
COL continues to do the opposite of what most people think as they were shutout by AAA vagabond Zach Lee and a group of bullpen-ers in losing a home series to the worst team in the league (based on preseason expectations) immediately after beating Kershaw as part of taking a series from the massive division favorite at the same venue. Go figure, but the COL lineup is not mashing the ball as everyone expected preseason and if they don't pitch as well as they have so far this could be the flop I was looking for when I played u80.5

Current line:
4/13 22:15 San Francisco -165 vs. Colorado: Bumgarner vs Gray

So here is a game that if COL wins, they will send a message to the rest of the division and maybe the league that they are going to challenge for a playoff spot. It's hard to say that one game matters this much in a 162-game season, but if this startup can go into enemy territory and beat the most accomplished winner in the division then people will need to take notice.

Bumgarner is the pitcher with the best resume in the division and at home he should be a sizable favorite. He's at a bit of a disadvantage tonight missing his personal catcher and Posey is the best offensive player on the team as well. So those are big problems for a 65-cent favorite whose lineup was pretty impotent last night aside from Shelby Miller's lone bad inning and then a Tom Wilhelmsen appearance. Against a RHP like Gray, Bochy probably comes with a similar lineup to last night that saw Span-Belt-Pence-Crawford-Gillaspie-Hundley-Panik-Parker aka L-L-R-L-L-R-L-L. Gray has been better in his short career vs lefties, but his HR totals are similar and I wouldn't consider him a reverse-split guy just yet.

SF also has longstanding bullpen issues, but Gearrin came in in a huge spot yesterday and struck out the side. He may emerge as a weapon when Bochy tries to bridge the gap to Melancon in the 9th, along with the always-dependable Kontos and Law who Bochy seems to love. The COL bullpen has probably been the biggest reason for their 6-4 record thus far and it will be tested during this four-game series as SF is tossing its four best starters and COL will need to stay at arm's length in order to get the split or a series win.

Back to Gray, who has been pretty bad this season in his two starts. The COL ace hasn't made it to the 7th inning and has yet to have a decision, though he left opening day on the hook for a loss, but he put his team in position to beat Kershaw and they eventually did. He will probably need to pitch very well tonight to match another slow-starter, Bumgarner, who is also winless. Bum went 19.1 IP only allowing 5 runs (3 ER) last year against COL and is probably quite determined to have a good outing tonight. Bud Black probably goes Blackmon-LeMahieu-CarGo-Arenado-Story-Reynolds-Cardullo-Wolters to load up as many RH hitters as possible in tonight's lineup as Bum is death on lefties. That makes LF a bit worrisome, unless he goes back to Parra there instead of Cardullo and plugs his nose putting another L in there.

Bum should throw a good one tonight, I'd expect nothing less than a QS from him. If that occurs, only Strickland has been used b2b days in the SF bullpen so Bochy will have his entire arsenal at hand. Gray will need to stay in arms length for COL to have a shot there, but against a Posey-less lineup with that gross 5-6-7-8 I think he can do so. Black also has everybody available, so this could be a barn burner if Gray can match Bum.

The total is 6.5 and that's lower than I made it, but anybody playing over at AT&T Park needs to get their heads examined. HRs are basically impossible if you're playing at night, even then most will go foul because it's hard to crush the ball down the line and everywhere else is a triple. I think this helps Bum as lefties aren't taking him deep to RF, but Gray has to worry about that a bit more.

I am not sure what I'm personally doing with this one as I do think COL is worth a long look at above 1.5/1, but this does look like a game SF wins despite the depleted lineup. I would not be shocked if COL took a slim lead and the greatest bullpen ever created holds it long enough for a victory, but I think Bum is more likely to take that lead and go deep in the game leaving not much time for COL to see the inferior SF bullpen arms before Melancon locks it down. I will also say I expect a low-scoring game, so SF and under would be my guess.
 
Bochy went with a very odd lineup tonight, partly because of a death in the family that has Brandon Crawford away from the team. I hope he doesn't miss the series, which he would if he's put on the restricted list, but it would make sense for COL to start a series with both Posey and Crawford missing because i have the RSW under...

Span
Panik
Belt
Pence
Gillaspie
Nunez
Parker
Federowicz
Bum

Panik is just a solid baseball player so I don't mind seeing him elevated from the 8-hole to the 2, especially vs a RHP. Regardless, Jon Gray has to be happy two of the bigger threats in the lineup are not playing and the price ticked down a bit because of it. Probably should fall even further, but the late money may come in on SF so I can't advise whether to grab COL now or not if you like them. Feel better about the under
 
one tough replay review that unbelievably stayed with the call on the field despite clear evidence to the contrary and SF ended the game on a bases loaded GIDP, but scoring 1 run against 5+ of the COL bullpen doesn't deserve a win. Gray's lingering toe injury that forced him out of his last start in spring training appeared again, which could be a big problem for such a thin rotation.

Story's clutch 4th-inning HR was the game-winner and that is a tough thing to do off Bum at AT&T. COL now has a Kershaw and Bumgarner scalp on Bud's mantle in the first two weeks, which I think is a big deal...

Current line:
4/14 22:15 ET San Francisco -128 vs. Colorado: Cueto vs Anderson

Tyler Anderson was not good on Sunday as he walked a bunch of batters and followed those walks with meatballs that left the park. You could argue he was unlucky, but that's what happens when you walk people. He hasn't been very good this year as he got hit pretty hard in Milwaukee as well, but with the venue and the way the SF lineup is currently constructed he'll have a great chance to get right tonight. Cueto, meanwhile, dominated SD in his last outing and is a great No. 2 who could truly be the ace of many, many staffs in the league today. He should pitch very well tonight as COL sits with a 7-4 record despite not really hitting the ball yet at all. Last night's 3 runs were enough, but lowered their RPG to 3.4 and they won't have a winning record putting that much pressure on their pitching staff every night.

Greg Holland came in to lock down yet another save, keeping his line perfect on the year, but it was definitely a scary outing as he walked a man with 1st and 2nd and only one out to load the bases. Nunez smashed a first-pitch fastball that he left up in the zone, but LeMahieu made a great play to cleanly catch it off a hop and turn the game-ending DP. Rusin relieved Gray and did about the best you could ask for only allowing a single run while getting 10 outs. Ottavino and Dunn took it from there without issue and then gave it to Holland late. Impressive stuff from that bullpen so far and it continues. All bullpen arms should be available again tonight, which is great news for COL.

SF, on the other hand, has a horrible lineup right now without Posey and they curiously had Crawford pinch hit in the 8th last night so he at least looks to be available for the rest of the series. That's huge for defense and for hitting, but he was definitely missed last night. As for the bullpen, Bochy got two innings from Ramirez who is probably down tonight and the other from Blach, who should be there to pitch if needed.

Tonight's line is very low, but that may be because of how weak the SF lineup has been without Posey. They should have Crawford tonight even against the LHP, but it will still be a tough situation to score a bunch of runs if Anderson isn't walking people. I imagine that's going to be a focus of his tonight, and it should work for him as AT&T is not a homer-friendly park. The best chances sound like RH hitters taking him to LF, so I'm looking at you Pence/Nunez/whoever is in LF/Hundley. Typing that out makes me realize what a scary thought that is considering the biggest threat is Pence and he is basically an oppo guy now, so Anderson probably doesn't have to worry too much about testing hitters tonight.

Parra got the night off last night in favor of Cardullo and actually didn't PH, but seems to be healthy so I'd expect him in there tonight to be another LH bat against Cueto. There isn't much room for error as Cueto will have to be great tonight in order for his depleted team to get a win. He's one of the best options out there, but I wouldn't blame anyone for a COL play. Problem is, only catching +116 doesn't give much of a cushion for another bad Anderson outing or a great one from Cueto. The total is 6.5, which was hardly in doubt last night, and I'd think an under is the more likely result again tonight.

I'll say SF and under as I think Cueto will outpitch Anderson, but like I said I can not blame anybody for a COL play based on what we've been seeing out of the SF offense lately and considering who they're missing. Also have the possibility that Crawford sits vs LHP tonight, but I expect him to be with the team after last night's AB
 
Bochy may be going senile. He decided to bat Hundley cleanup, who has been a terrible hitter for his entire career just because he's RH

Span
Belt
Pence
Hundley
Crawford
Nunez
Marrero
Panik

No Parra on the other side for COL, not injured but it may be due to his poor start to the year. Everything looks normal besides Tapia in LF in the 7th spot filling in for Parra, which is odd to me. Good news if you like COL or under. Mike Everitt behind the plate may not be a huge over or under leaner, but he wouldn't keep me off an under play if I really liked it
 
Skipped yesterday as I was out all day, but COL smacked Matt Moore around from what I saw and I would say it was surprising.

Expect senzatela has trouble today and samardizja has not been very good so far this year, hoping for a SF win but that would only manage a split at home. COL has done the job so far this year, expect they lose today but things have gone well so far and they sit 8-5 so it's been a solid two weeks for them
 
9-5 as they got out early, gave back the lead early and somehow held on. Not feeling very good about this at all after two weeks, but the Posey injury was a killer as that SF lineup is trash without him

Happy there's no game today, but I am going to try to not miss any more going forward. First day off of the year after two weeks is a surprise, but COL deserves it after starting so well. They won a four-game road series against a team they should have beaten, then nearly swept the division favorite, struggled with the worst team in the league at home and then took three of four from the expected runner-up on the road. Really tough to get a handle on this team...
 
Current line:
4/18 Los Angeles -185 vs. COL: Ryu vs Freeland

Ryu probably won't go too deep here as he hasn't yet this season. Freeland got smacked around after initially pitching very well vs LAD at Coors, but here is another opportunity for a LHP to get LAD as Robbie Ray did it last night.

COL enters this one with a day off for the first time of the year, meanwhile Dave Roberts inexplicably had Hatcher throw 47 pitches so he's unavailable for sure tonight. That's a big loss to have, which again makes no sense as he pushed him too hard and that lost them the game, but the only other two guys used were the lefties and didn't hit the 20-pitch mark.

I don't think Ryu deserves to lay this price and I much prefer Bud Black to his manager, but it's a big enough price with the wildcard starting on the other side of the mound. You basically have to decide if you think Freeland throws a good enough game to take a stab on him.
 
LAD is pretty much an autofade vs LHP at this point, could possibly call them that vs RHP as well and their manager is a clown. Puig nearly saved the day in the 9th, but missed a walk-off HR by a few feet. Holland managed to escape the danger for his league-leading 8th save, which i don't think anyone expected preseason. Arenado smacked Ryu over the wall twice and that was pretty much all COL needed until the troubles in the 9th

Current line:
4/19 Los Angeles -270 vs. COL: Kershaw vs Anderson

LAD gets another opportunity to fall on its face against a LHP, though Anderson has been pretty bad this year and the Dodgers start the best pitcher in the world not named Madison Bumgarner. The price is insane, but it has been this way all season and I'm starting to think that it wouldn't be a bad idea to try a COL play or at least look at the RL. Kershaw lost at Coors early this year and i can't imagine COL lacks any confidence thanks to their great start and the fact that they've already beaten Kershaw and Bum.

The day off on Monday plus Holland only throwing 20 pitches makes me think he'll be there to close it out late. The others used last night were not pushed too hard, so Bud Black should have everyone at his disposal tonight. Dave Roberts had Baez throw 28 pitches in getting six outs, so he may be down as well as the possibility that Hatcher may be too after 47 inexplicable pitches on Monday.

LAD seems to be built to platoon and the RH hitters just aren't good enough to start, but Roberts isn't the guy to make a very simple decision. It also appears to me that Adrian Gonzalez is pretty much just a defender at this point as he hasn't been a power threat for years and now seems like all he does is hit groundballs.

Should have normal LA weather tonight in the 60s with almost no chance of precipitation. Behind the plate is Quinn Wolcott, who I don't have much of a read on as he's a young umpire. Gotta think Jansen pitches tonight as he hasn't worked in at least two days, but if he's used without a lead then there's a dime or so of value incorporated into the line that has now dropped $0.25 since I started typing.

Trying to decide between COL RL and ML as my third COL play of the season. Will be back here with what I choose, but likely waiting until tonight because backing the other side early vs Kershaw is rarely a good choice
 
now 1-2 -0.5u on COL plays. Kershaw is incredible, but he did trail 1-0 after loading the bases in the first with no outs. He also was fortunate to hit CarGo in the hand and somehow it not be a HBP, still wondering who said he went around, but may have done me a favor as a bruised hand this early could be a problem for oft-injured Gonzalez. Anderson is responsible for those two losses, think the league has enough of a book on him and this will stretch the pen out. COL still off to an incredible start at 10-6 leading the division, but a decent losing streak could undo that all...

Current line
4/21 20:40 ET San Francisco -113 @ Colorado: Cueto vs Chatwood

Chatwood is notorious for struggling at home and being much better on the road, but who isn't when you play 81 games/make 12 starts a year at Coors. He doesn't K many people and will be victimized by the BABIP monster, unless he gets the at 'em balls he needs. On the other side is the reliable Jonny Cueto, who is a very close second choice to Bumgarner for guys I'd want to start a game for SF against my RSW play.

CarGo's x-rays were negative, and the day off today will help, but if he's not in the lineup tomorrow against a RHP then there may be more of a problem than I'm hearing. I'd expect CarGo to be in the lineup, but he's struggled this year so far. It was his catching hand so it shouldn't affect his defense, but Bud Black should do everything he can to get him in there to avoid having to go with a major downgrade off the bench.

The rest of the lineup should be good to go and on the other side I'm very happy to have Posey for this series after missing him in the four-gamer in the Bay. He's one of the most important bats in the league and seeing where SF is in the division I expect he'll catch two and play 1B in the other. Just what the doctor ordered as he's also extremely valuable behind the plate stealing strikes, which the SF bullpen will need as they are still not a trustworthy bunch.

COL on the other hand has been incredible once they got their starter out of the game, but Holland had his first real trouble in LA on Tuesday and I'm hoping that continues. There shouldn't be any rest concerns on either side after Thursday's day off, but Bochy has been getting progressively worse with his decisions so I'm concerned for that this series.

Bum lost again on Wednesday, but COL should be very happy not to see him. Moore's velocity seems to be down and COL hit him hard early at AT&T last weekend, so they should be a confident bunch at home this weekend. Before the season started I expected the top of the division to really hurt the COL chances of finishing at or above .500, but they've held their own so far and I think they should be reasonably-priced to win the series despite a SP disadvantage so I'd imagine SF is giving odds on the series price.

Cueto is the far better pitcher, but he's on the road with a bullpen that has more questions than the home side. I'd expect he will outduel Chatwood, but will probably need a bit of a cushion or else I'll be sweating bullets late. COL should want to weather the early innings and get a lead to the pen, or even just try to be tied late and let the last AB be enough. Neither offense has been incredible so far and we do have two starters who can get hitters out, so I will say SF wins and the total stays under a very low 10.5

(the SF wins prediction may be wishful thinking at this point and i'm clearly biased, but i'm not yet ready to change my opinion so drastically on COL because they've won based on a bullpen that wasn't supposed to be a strong suit. Eventually the hitters will wake up, but until it happens it seems silly to expect against a stud like Cueto)
 
COL improves to 7-0 in one-run games, this time winning on a two-out two-run inside the park HR because Hunter Pence's goofy ass lost a ball in the lights after SF blew a 3-0 lead...

Current line
4/22 20:10 ET Colorado -112 vs. San Francisco: Senzatela vs Moore

The line makes sense, but I think it's a big deal that COL is now favored over SF. Probably wouldn't have happened preseason to make the most obvious statement of the year so far, but it shows how I'm in deep trouble.

Moore got hit hard at AT&T in the first meeting, Senzatela got a W going 7 allowing 3 ER. He didn't strike out very many batters, but has had a great start to his big league career considering he had never sniffed anything above AA before this year. With that said, I don't think he's very good and today's 11 runs may have finally broken open the scoring drought at Coors despite it taking Cueto's first ever Grand Slam allowed and the elements that resulted in a two-run inside-the-park HR that should have been an easy third out to an inning.

As for Moore, his fastball velocity is below 90 mph and that is a huge concern for a pitcher who used to throw 97. His offspeed stuff is good enough, but he's always been a power pitcher so relying on that is a major change and will take some time to get used to (if he can ever do it). I know he had a near-no hitter or perfect game @LAD last year because he added a cutter and threw it for the first time ever, but i'm not sure that's who he is nowadays. He's a guy i tried to get in fantasy because of his past combined with half his starts likely coming at AT&T, which loosely translates to someone i want to back on the ML also, but for now those plans are on hold despite liking SF a bit.

Pence slipped on the inside-the-park HR and was limping, but remained in the game throughout so I'd expect him to play tomorrow despite some concern he won't. Posey should catch again I suspect, but this SF team is looking more average by the day. The bullpen was great not giving up a run in 3 IP, but the offense had Ottavino on the ropes and could only cut the deficit to 1 then didn't challenge Holland at all in the 9th.

After the off day, both team should have everyone available and it's a big opportunity for COL to put some more distance between a team projected to finish nearly 10 games ahead of them this season. I can't disagree with COL being a favorite until SF starts to do things that good teams do, and I'd expect the 11 o/u to be eclipsed considering my lack of faith in the two starters.

The weather was terrible today, but it's only warming up to 58 at game time tomorrow so it should be another cold one. Rob Drake is behind the plate and was never a bad guy to have back there if you like over, so I'll say COL and over 11
 
Joe Panik was supposed to be the 8 hitter this year and he's batting 3rd tonight. That's how bad things are for SF right now
 
COL jumped on Moore early and then it did get close until a monstrous two-out rally in the bottom of the 8th. Got the side and total correct, hoping to do that regularly from now on...

Current line
4/23 15:10 ET Colorado -105 vs. San Francisco: Freeland vs Samardizja

Freeland had success in two starts vs LAD in the different venues, but they've emerged as an autofade vs LHP so the jury is still out on him. SF isn't playing well and some say they are so snakebitten even their team bus is getting into parking accidents, but they have an opportunity today to avoid the sweep. I say opportunity, but in reality they're probably panicked after such a terrible start and Bumgarner's ridiculously stupid dirtbike incident. Samardizja is tough to project, but when he's at his best he can K anybody and everybody. That will be a big deal today at Coors, while Freeland seems to be a pitch-to-contact guy and if he stays that way he will struggle.

SF was a favorite for most of the time this line was up, but it has moved towards the middle likely because of the state of both of these two teams.

COL has been successful because of its bullpen so far, which should still be an advantage today as the big 8th inning allowed Holland to get a night off. Only LHP Mike Dunn worked b2b nights and both outings were brief. None of the good SF pen was used, so if there's anything to feel good about it is that (though they are terrible in that area).

I like SF's chances to avoid the sweep today as I think Samardizja is a far better arm than Freeland, but even with the move to +100 while typing this I don't think it's enough for me to get involved.

The COL lineup is as good as it can be, nobody sitting despite already clinching the series, and SF is missing Span who may have sat vs a LHP today anyway. He did sprain a shoulder though, so I can't imagine he will even be available to pinch hit. That's a problem because SF has OF issues and his replacement, Gorkys Hernandez, has made some crucial defensive mistakes including one last night that contributed to the big 8th inning. Posey at 1B as expected, which limits the offense a bit as Hundley is in the middle of the lineup.

If betting this game, I would take SF, but there's not enough here for me to do it. I'm gonna project a COL win and over the 11.5 total as Clint Fagan is behind home plate with a very tough strikezone to project and some warmer temps in the high 60s-low 70s.
 
COL completes the sweep vs SF and starts the year 6-1 vs a team projected to finish higher than they were preseason. Freeland was good and Samardizja wasn't at all, pretty clear difference between these two teams. Thank god they don't play against until 6/15, but Bumgarner won't be available by then so I think i've found my least favorite team of 2017...

Current line
4/24 Colorado -166 vs. Washington: Anderson vs Turner

Former highly-touted prospect Jacob Turner called up to fill Strasburg's spot in the rotation as he leaves for the birth of a child. Was originally going to be Ross's spot, but they pushed him to Tuesday. This is the third call-up to start @COL this year as yet again I am snakebitten by something unlucky that removes a top starter in the league from pitching against COL. They also will miss Scherzer who pitched last night, so, great news for the 13-6 home team.

Turner was supposed to be a big-time performer and was a big piece in a few trades, but has not panned out. His season high of pitches thrown was 74, so there should be a fair amount of bullpen involved on the WSH side. Fortunately, Scherzer got 24 outs last night and Glover closed it out without incident. Glover's worked b2b days, so I would suspect Kelley is the closer tonight, but everybody else should be available.

On the other side, LHP Tyler Anderson has been pretty bad to start the year. He was somewhat competitive with Kershaw, some of it because he had a lead before even throwing a pitch, but had a bad 5th inning and that was enough to put it out of reach. He's got some good fortune tonight with Harper getting the night off, which is a big reason for the move to -166. Without him, the WSH lineup is limited, but they still have a lot of threats.

COL is going with a full lineup tonight and should get to Turner. He's been seen by most of the lineup, but Anderson is completely new and has a bit of a hitch in his windup that could throw off the WSH hitters for a few innings. That could be enough for them to get to Turner, but based on how Anderson has performed I can not agree with a line this high.

So I'm considering WSH at the moment, but missing Harper and the team coming off a really late night winning SNB in New York makes that very risky when I don't think Turner will be very competitive. SD's two call-ups pitched very well in a very similar spot, but that was when COL was really struggling to hit and they broke out in the SF series scoring 6-12-8.

The o/u is 11.5 and I would expect the over to hit even without Harper, which probably even lends a little value. The weather is going to be cold, looks like high-50s, so that is a concern along with not knowing who will be calling balls and strikes.

Probably nothing for me tonight, but I'll guess COL and over
 
WSH bullpen blew the lead last night after a good start from Jacob turner. Unfortunate, but they got to see Holland and put some pressure on him, too...

4/25 Colorado -116 vs WSH: German vs Ross

Ross making his 2nd start of the year in a tough environment, but COL rotation depth being tested here with a callup.

Short on time, but I think WSH wins this one thanks to the advantage on the mound
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Wiretowire
MLB Monday 7/29
Replies
11
Views
176
2daBank
2daBank
Wiretowire
MLB Friday 7/12
Replies
19
Views
224
FadeTheHype
F
Wiretowire
MLB Tuesday 5/18
Replies
7
Views
204
KJ
KJ
Wiretowire
MLB Saturday 7/13
Replies
5
Views
122
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
MLB Wednesday 6/19
Replies
7
Views
221
Wiretowire
Wiretowire
Back
Top