rnd 1

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
plays:

Chiefs +2.5, +100; 6.5 units WIN

add

SF -2.5; 4 units
SF 1H ML -130; 4 units WIN
 Chip Kelly's -2.5, 3.5 units LOSS
Colts 2H TT over 14, 6 units WIN
 
Last edited:
Just a gut feeling from my side, but I don't understand the overwhelming KC love.
Sure the Colts had a rough stretch, but they beat playoff teams and they were able to turn it up again especially on D.
 
pasted from discussion thread fwiw:

Reid's experience in playoffs cant be underestimated.. Hated what he did yesterday (for the steelers) but it was exactly the right thing to do.. Key guys got key rest and the bs way they lost the game was a good way to go into the playoffs IMO... Colts offensive line has been a target all year. In games they have played well, the team has succeeded (SF) but in games they've struggled (stl) the offensive line play was among the worst in football..Even early in the SF game they looked like a high school team. KC with recent revenge and a proper gameplan will have Luck on the run all day long... Have said this before, without Luck, Colts would be a 4 or 5 win team.. That's a big compliment to Luck, and love the kid, but this team is not built for playoffs and massive game planning. .Too many holes that can be exposed. Give Andy Reid a big edge here..
 
Gaius.T said:
Just a gut feeling from my side, but I don't understand the overwhelming KC love.
Sure the Colts had a rough stretch, but they beat playoff teams and they were able to turn it up again especially on D.
Click to expand...

many of the games they won they struggled badly early and got bailed out by Luck (pun intended) late... Rerun the Ram game at home.. Team has massive flaws IMO.. In the playoffs those teams exit quickly... on the flip side, sure KC only beat one team with winning record but their consistency on the road is noteworthy.. GL bro
 
Why is the Colts win over KC just a few weeks ago being completely overlooked? Alex Smith looked horrible, and that was at home. Maybe it's the whole "tough to beat a team twice" thought, but you can't just overlook what Indy did to KC can you?
 
Lareux said:
Why is the Colts win over KC just a few weeks ago being completely overlooked? Alex Smith looked horrible, and that was at home. Maybe it's the whole "tough to beat a team twice" thought, but you can't just overlook what Indy did to KC can you?
Click to expand...

key part of wager actually:eyebrow:
 
Lareux said:
Why is the Colts win over KC just a few weeks ago being completely overlooked? Alex Smith looked horrible, and that was at home. Maybe it's the whole "tough to beat a team twice" thought, but you can't just overlook what Indy did to KC can you?
Click to expand...

Chiefs knew this was a likely game, I think they played a vanilla game plan (on both sides of the ball) to not give anything away
 
agree a bit with teed on that but more so--- the NFL is so different than CFB.. Talent difference is so small. How did Colts get rolled by Rams at home with Kelli Clemens at QB? How did Chiefs get rolled at home by that same team? happens when you aren't prepared and completely motivated.. Take it further-- how do you think the Colts would do against Rams if they played this week in playoffs? Be a bit of a different game? furthermore, if this were chan Gaily or wade Phillips coaching the chefs I'd be cautious but trust me Andy Reid knows exactly what he is doing--sly as a fox........ But for me that's just the situational aspect... like all other elements as well.
 
Hahahahahaha. Win.

Not only the talent thing, but let's go back to the basics. If you have an offense, Indy will let you move the ball on them. It's been that way all year. Indoors, there's very little reason to think KC won't move the ball here. The question really is how much pressure KC's DL can generate. If it's a lot this game really shouldn't be close.
 
Joe Public said:
Hahahahahaha. Win.

Not only the talent thing, but let's go back to the basics. If you have an offense, Indy will let you move the ball on them. It's been that way all year. Indoors, there's very little reason to think KC won't move the ball here. The question really is how much pressure KC's DL can generate. If it's a lot this game really shouldn't be close.
Click to expand...

this
 
guaranteeed said:
Chiefs knew this was a likely game, I think they played a vanilla game plan (on both sides of the ball) to not give anything away
Click to expand...

Could be I guess, but at that point in the season there is more than enough game tape to know what a team likes to do. Being vanilla in one particular game, even against your potential future opponent, doesn't mean much.
 
Lareux said:
Vanilla game planning, not wanting to give anything away to anyone. I kid, I kid.
Click to expand...

You must be referring to my beloved Rams claiming they were Vanilla in preseason only to reveal they were Vanilla all of September as well. Lol
 
wiseplayer said:
You must be referring to my beloved Rams claiming they were Vanilla in preseason only to reveal they were Vanilla all of September as well. Lol
Click to expand...

No, I was referring to post #16 in this thread.

But you have a good point about the Rams.
 
wiseplayer said:
I don't really follow KC. What's been the reason for their tailspin the latter part of the season? GL!
Click to expand...

its the nfl.. every team goes through it. If you aren't prepared and mentally sound you will get beat. Go through every teams schedule and you will find several head scratchers good and bad.. Chiefs were rolling pretty good, especially on offense prior to Colt game.. Then, head scratcher.. Dominated at home by Colts...Hmmm. how do NFL teams usually respond? JMO bro and many other prepared minds disagree
 
add

SF -2.5; 4 units

I know this one is popular but got to roll with it.. For me, Rodgers was extremely shaky and the step up in defensive class he will face this week couldn't be greater.. SF is built for the postseason and tho I think it will be a battle on the road in hostile territory, the by far better team finds a way to win it
 
yea im getting +3000 on KC and Saints and +5000 on Chargers.. surprised chargers dont have a shot in hell but KC and Saints I would say great value
 
aplous said:
Secondary....lack of pass rush since Houston went out. He back, rested and hopefully ready to own.
Click to expand...

Agree on both. Secondary is the weakest part of that defense, if they get pressure on the QB it covers a lot of their flaws. If Houston is playing like pre-injury, it makes this defense an entirely different animal.
 
tee*dub said:
add

SF -2.5; 4 units

I know this one is popular but got to roll with it.. For me, Rodgers was extremely shaky and the step up in defensive class he will face this week couldn't be greater.. SF is built for the postseason and tho I think it will be a battle on the road in hostile territory, the by far better team finds a way to win it
Click to expand...

what about the fact that SF has gotten completely torched in the secondary recently and now will likely not have Carlos Rogers and even Eric Wright his replacement has a hammy
 
IMO the SF O > GB D is the biggest mismatch in the game. Last 6 games Kaep has been on fire and Packer D has given up 30 ppg last 8 games or so I believe....
 
luckythirteen said:
what about the fact that SF has gotten completely torched in the secondary recently and now will likely not have Carlos Rogers and even Eric Wright his replacement has a hammy
Click to expand...

I think the team that runs the ball the best wins Sunday.. I for sure like my defense over GB's.. For sure the 700+ yards passing SF gave up last two weeks vs Atl and Ariz is a concern. I'll worry more about it in the next round vs this round.. GL with your bet on the Pack
 
I think I have this right -- these players did not play first game v. Colts but are back for this'n

WR Bowe (concussion), linebacker Houston (elbow), LT Albert (knee), RT Fisher (groin)
 
This has been on the edge of a play/not play all week.. Feel I'm seeing it pretty well right now so adding:

Chip Kelly's -2.5, 3.5 units
 
[TABLE="width: 60%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: left"]Jan 04[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: left"]96009[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, colspan: 2, align: left"]J. CHARLES (KC) RSH YDS[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: right"]o94½-130<input name="text_" value="2_1513230_-94.5_-130" type="checkbox">[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
DaRaiders said:
[TABLE="width: 60%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: left"]Jan 04[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: left"]96009[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, colspan: 2, align: left"]J. CHARLES (KC) RSH YDS[/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: TrGameEvenVs, align: right"]o94½-130<input name="text_" type="checkbox" value="2_1513230_-94.5_-130">[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

ya, dunno now.. what do you think? Colts didn't provide much resistance in first game and Chefs are healthier in the Oline now..
 
You never know with him though as far as touches...

He could have 14 rushes for 88 and 6 catches for 110 lol.
 
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