Rexy's Week 5 CFB...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Ended up losing a bit over 3 units last week for my first losing week of the season. Let's see if I can rectify that this week; some early plays were put in because I will be in the Phoenix area all weekend. I will be working the halftime of the early Saturday games, but that's it. Will be busy with a buddy's wedding the rest of the afternoon/evening.

Plays are in, might add one or two based on the prices later in the week if better numbers pop.

UNC-Charlotte is bad. I was fortunate to win a couple of units last week on Florida Atlantic, who is equally shitty. Weather might have played somewhat of a factor, but after looking at that box and hearing the highlights, I immediately dropped FAU several points and Charlotte one more out of principle. I now make Temple -31 in this game. The Owls are off a bad effort, are well coached and had a bye to tune for the conference portion of the schedule. The 49ers have 14 turnovers in the last two games, and this will be the best defense they've seen yet. I would be stunned if they score, to be honest. Temple RB Thomas ranks near the top of the nation in all purpose yards and will have a field day in the first half before being taken out of this slaughter. Backdoor should be shut by defense trying to preserve a shutout late; score it something around 41-0.

The play: 107 Temple -23 big 3u.


Kansas might get its QB back this week, but what does that mean when they still can't tackle? Iowa State beat a solid I-AA in the opener and have suffered close losses to Iowa and Toledo that could have went either way. There is a big dropoff from ninth to last in the 10-team Big XII, and we're about to find that out in Ames this weekend.

The play: 126 Iowa State -15.5 med 2u. I would still lay the 16 for the same, which is most widely available currently.


Oklahoma off a bye and the offense seems to be okay after torching Tusla a couple of weeks ago, but this is a different beast that they're facing this week. West By God Virginia is quietly flying under the radar, with covers by 27 and 22.5 so far. The Mountaineers could have named the score against Maryland last week and it seems be it for geographical reasons or otherwise, WVU sorta gets left out of any conversation about competing for a league title. Make no mistake, people won't want to make the trek to Morgantown against Holgo's fierce defense (8 ppg allowed, a far cry from what reputed national-title contender TCU can offer on that side) and this seems to be his best team yet by a good amount. A win here propels them right into every conversation, league-wise and nationally. Dog on a 12-3-1 ATS run in WV games even after the favored Mounties enjoyed whitewash wins against Georgia Southern and Maryland this season. If Tulsa could put up 600 plus against the Sooners, what might the balanced WV attack come up with?

The play: 135 West By God Virginia +7 big 3u. Also +230 ML for another unit.


Taking a stab with Iowa in Madison Saturday. The Hawkeyes allow under 2.7 yards per carry. UW has beaten up on three patsies since the loss in the opener at Bama; this will be a stiff test. Iowa is battle-tested in gutting one out over ISU and Pitt, in an emotional spot at home. Typical Ferentz; he sneaks up and wins 9 or 10 when you expect 6 or 7 - this looks like a year Iowa can win the west and a win in this spot will go a long way to get them toward the goal. Wiskydicks are missing their starting RB, and I can't count on that 17th year QB to try to win a clutch game for them. Iowa has held the Badgers to 18 or less in five of the last nine in the series; I'll call for Iowa outright, but the points are fine.

The play: 137 Iowa +7 smallish, 1.2 units or so.


K-State with four straight covers against Okie Light, and this effort in Stillwater should make it five. OSU off a draining and very fortunate (yes, Texas shot itself in the foot numerous times but the refs stuck it to the Horns there also; not sure what the hell was behind that?) win in Austin, while K-State had a bye week for the best coach in college football to make adjustments. Expect KSU new QB Hubener to show some new wrinkles to his offense this week, and this is a lot of points to give Bill Snyder. Close call; not sure who will win but gun to head I think K-State can do it. The points are just gravy. Wildcats have covered seven straight on the road when catching 7 or more.

The play: 147 K-State +8 small to med 1.5u


Thanks to our friends at Right Angle for giving me a better price on my new favorite team, the Houston Cougars. Cougs are now 11-0-1 ATS last 12 on the road ATS, though with the new regime I'm only interested in what Ward and the UH offense (689 yards last week)) can do this year. Tulsa has a great coach and will rapidly improve, but are catching the best team in the league at the wrong time. QB Evans was picked three times last season by the Cougar defense, which seems hell-bent to return to its turnover-forcing ways of a couple seasons ago.

The play: 149 Houston -5 med to big 2.5u. Would also lay the current widely available 5.5 for the same.


Florida State has outscored Wake 154-6 in the last three meetings. Don't think it's asking too much for FSU to extend a margin on the road here after a bit of extra prep time. Lukewarm endorsement here having to lay a big price; Jimbo is just 5-13 last 18 ATS although last year's shavers had something to do with a lot of the failures in this run.

The play: 203 Florida State -19 small 1u.


Later in the season, I doubt I'd have this play but I will tepidly endorse Utah State against Colo St. Sure, there are things working against me. Higgins is back healthy and the Rams took CU and Minnesota to ot in close losses. As much as I love Chuckie Keeton, I have to think that backup QB Myers at this point is probably an upgrade over him. Low-scoring games in this series as of late, meaning laying points is a dangerous proposition. Still, I made the game 8.5 and will endorse a lay in this spot in Logan.

The play: 208 Utah State -4 (-109) small to med 1.5u. Would only bet 1u maximum at anything worse than 4 flat all the way up to 5.5 flat. No play at anything above that.


Eight pieces as of now; looking to possibly add later in the week if anything else pops. I'll be able to comment for the next day or so; then I'll try to catch up on Thursday night on whatever I'm missing!

GL!

:shake:
 
I assume there is literally no way to ask these things without sounding like an asshole, but it's a serious question and obviously I think you are the best capper on here or I wouldn't be blind tailing to begin with (and since I spent a lot of time betting with the "pokers" and your information was always accurate, there is nobody on here I actually trust more). Anyways, I blind tailed all the plays in weeks 2 and 4 and got beat this weekend for 5 units and lost 6 units in week 2 with the same lines...is there something I'm missing? Or at least how week 2 wasn't considered a loser? (The initial plays in the thread before all the halftime stuff came in got killed, while the halftime was a solid winner with all 3 big bets cashing in). Thanks and hope you realize I mean no disrespect, just trying to make some money. Thanks for all that you do
 
Myers would be a huge downgrade over the Keeton of a few years ago. But you are correct, Myers is an upgrade over the current version of Keeton. Unfortunate what injuries did to Keeton's college career.

Good luck this week.
 
Week 2 was a small loser in the sides, but crushed the halves and won over 8 units. If you can't get to those plays, then prolly not a good idea to tail blindly. Gotta be an all or nothing thing when doing something like that. I learned the hard way many years ago doing it myself with someone I respected, especially when i was sitting on the bench watching when he got white-hot. If you bet the halves in Week 2 also, then there is a 14-unit discrepancy; not sure what to tell you.

Last week I went 5-6-1 and lose 3.22 for games and halves went 7-5 and lose 0.05 on 2H plays (thanks, WMU/Ohio Shit total). There is a chance that sometimes on halftime plays I forgot to list units but generally speaking small = 1, med = 2, big = 3 and rarely more than that up to 4; anything in between is listed as well so you have a general idea. There is a chance I got a better juice than you on some of them also. Before anyone bitches and cries about that (a common pet peeve from all the trolls who are chickenshit to bet any sort of real money most of the time), when you get access to as many as 20 outs, then you too can post about getting the best of the number every time, like I do unless it flies in my face. Not willing to move out of the country to do it? Then go pound sand. Sorry if I take my career more seriously than most of you take your hobbies. When you're in your mid-30s, still single and with no kids because you don't have time or make time for it, that alone should be proof enough that this is not my job, but rather my life.

It's also why I'm really looking forward to a weekend in Arizona.
 
that last rant was not at you directly, Dwight. If it came across that way, it wasn't supposed to. Just a general comment about how serious this shit is to me. I don't want to be on both sides of the counter forever. Just being on one and trying to make a living is stressful enough. I won't see 60 years old if I don't make some lifestyle changes (already started, quit drinking 2 1/2 weeks ago and after this weekend, going back on wagon for rest of the month).
 
Hey CKR, really appreciate everything you do in here. Your threads are must reads every week. Was curious what you made bammers/uga & domers/dabos lines? Thanks in advance...
 
I made Bama/Jorja a PICK and gun to head would only have Bama.

I made ND -1.5 and hope to God I am wrong; the Catholics need to lose a game or two and eliminate themselves from a beating in the playoffs.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Week 2 was a small loser in the sides, but crushed the halves and won over 8 units. If you can't get to those plays, then prolly not a good idea to tail blindly. Gotta be an all or nothing thing when doing something like that. I learned the hard way many years ago doing it myself with someone I respected, especially when i was sitting on the bench watching when he got white-hot. If you bet the halves in Week 2 also, then there is a 14-unit discrepancy; not sure what to tell you.

Last week I went 5-6-1 and lose 3.22 for games and halves went 7-5 and lose 0.05 on 2H plays (thanks, WMU/Ohio Shit total). There is a chance that sometimes on halftime plays I forgot to list units but generally speaking small = 1, med = 2, big = 3 and rarely more than that up to 4; anything in between is listed as well so you have a general idea. There is a chance I got a better juice than you on some of them also. Before anyone bitches and cries about that (a common pet peeve from all the trolls who are chickenshit to bet any sort of real money most of the time), when you get access to as many as 20 outs, then you too can post about getting the best of the number every time, like I do unless it flies in my face. Not willing to move out of the country to do it? Then go pound sand. Sorry if I take my career more seriously than most of you take your hobbies. When you're in your mid-30s, still single and with no kids because you don't have time or make time for it, that alone should be proof enough that this is not my job, but rather my life.

It's also why I'm really looking forward to a weekend in Arizona.
Click to expand...

God bless you bro. And here I am, when I go to CR it is for a much different purpose.....fishing 2 ways. I hope one day you might be 'counterless' for your own sake and health. Seems very stressful and the swings can be rough.


Do you follow recruiting? Probably not that much given all the shit you gotta know to stay sharp, etc....

But I was wondering what you might attribute Utah's defense to? Do they get big time recruits? Scheme? Both? They have really really impressed me this year, and I am glad to see them in a big conference doing it.....

Anyway, next time I am in Los Suenos maybe I hit you up......you may be far away though. Where yat?
 
Los Suenos I have a buddy who lives down there and I golf there several times a year. I have given some thought to moving down that way but need to stockpile some chips before spending 2k a month or more just to get in the door of those places. Give me a heads up before your trip and I'll try to make it down for a night or two; we can hit up Croc's.

Utah has recruited good defense for many years. I'm sure Two Utes can tell you better than I, but it seems like the real difference now in playing in the Pac-12 is the ability to finally RECRUIT Pac-12 talent - especially at the skill positions. They have some wickedly-good WRs and RBs, real talent there where it didn't exist before. Doesn't hurt to have a coach who is better than most, either.

And no, I don't follow recruiting. Try keeping up with about 11 sports on a year-round basis. It's hard enough to get to know the one-and-done guys before they go to the Nuba.
 
WE see a lot alike this week, mr rex. Might be first time this season.

Best of luck and keep the good info coming.

I don't always respond in here, but I never fail to read.
 
Askias - Some of the best tour guides down here (depending on what you are looking for) will charge you an arm and a leg for going out there one day. Pretty good deal if you can tolerate it and have scheduled a 4-5 day excursion.

Their specific instructions: Bring 4-5 different sets of clothes on the boat. When one of y'all catches a fish, let's huddle up and get a good photo. Then change clothes. Rinse, repeat, change the position of the boat to the sun (or clouds, as it's rainy season down here now)... a few times and BOOM. It looks to your friends back home and/or significant (however much they may be) others that you went out fishing four or five days when in reality you were out there with a trained pro that literally eats sportfish for lunch, for about five hours instead of five days. This gives these gringos ample time to stick their bobber in other waters close by the marina...
 
"This gives these gringos ample time to stick their bobber in other waters close by the marina..." - Classic Rex lmfao....
 
Rex: Thanks for everything you do...have a great weekend in Arizona...hope you get the phone to work with USA #
 
With you on West Vir. and thanks for the rest will most likely hit a couple of them if the numbers are right. Thanks for what you do.:cheers3:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
that last rant was not at you directly, Dwight. If it came across that way, it wasn't supposed to. Just a general comment about how serious this shit is to me. I don't want to be on both sides of the counter forever. Just being on one and trying to make a living is stressful enough. I won't see 60 years old if I don't make some lifestyle changes (already started, quit drinking 2 1/2 weeks ago and after this weekend, going back on wagon for rest of the month).
Click to expand...

Hey, hey, hey; let's not get crazy now. Don't do anything rash, or something you'll regret. Look, we've all been there buddy:shake: . And when you hit those places, sometimes a lot of things sound like good ideas - exercising, eating better, getting more sleep - but you know it's just fool's gold. I know it sounds crazy now, but go out, get a pack of Marlboro reds, a fifth of Early Times, and the phone numbers for at least three reputable Thai brothels. Let me help you get through this. Someday, we'll both look back on it and laugh. :rofl:
 
You may need to come up here to Tahoe and relax, Rex before you burn out.

I appreciate the hard work you put in on football and have no idea how you can do it year round.

That's why I bet football only. The rest of the time I get away and ski all winter, play beach volleyball all summer.

My brain would explode if I tried to handicap and bet all the other sports.

I like your Iowa and Houston picks. Don't disagree with anything you said about W Virginia and if you can get 7 you have a shot, but I'm not convinced they can stand up to Oklahoma physically.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Their specific instructions: Bring 4-5 different sets of clothes on the boat. When one of y'all catches a fish, let's huddle up and get a good photo. Then change clothes. Rinse, repeat, change the position of the boat to the sun (or clouds, as it's rainy season down here now)... a few times and BOOM. It looks to your friends back home and/or significant (however much they may be) others that you went out fishing four or five days when in reality you were out there with a trained pro that literally eats sportfish for lunch, for about five hours instead of five days. This gives these gringos ample time to stick their bobber in other waters close by the marina...
Click to expand...

This is so hilarious for anyone that's been to jaco. Was down there about 2.5 years ago, had the casa blanca estate rented for a week with about 12 other friends. Amazing time. Spent a few nights at the cocal. We got about 20 girls over the estate for a day party that was pablo escobar worthy. I'm married now so i probably won't ever go back, but if I do come back to "Hermosa" Beach I won't forget this playbook.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Askias - Some of the best tour guides down here (depending on what you are looking for) will charge you an arm and a leg for going out there one day. Pretty good deal if you can tolerate it and have scheduled a 4-5 day excursion.

Their specific instructions: Bring 4-5 different sets of clothes on the boat. When one of y'all catches a fish, let's huddle up and get a good photo. Then change clothes. Rinse, repeat, change the position of the boat to the sun (or clouds, as it's rainy season down here now)... a few times and BOOM. It looks to your friends back home and/or significant (however much they may be) others that you went out fishing four or five days when in reality you were out there with a trained pro that literally eats sportfish for lunch, for about five hours instead of five days. This gives these gringos ample time to stick their bobber in other waters close by the marina...
Click to expand...

My friends pull the ole "wait by the dock for the boats to come in" trick


Excuse me guys? Can we take a picture with your fish to send to our wives?


pretty slick
 
OnFireSports said:
This is so hilarious for anyone that's been to jaco. Was down there about 2.5 years ago, had the casa blanca estate rented for a week with about 12 other friends. Amazing time. Spent a few nights at the cocal. We got about 20 girls over the estate for a day party that was pablo escobar worthy. I'm married now so i probably won't ever go back, but if I do come back to "Hermosa" Beach I won't forget this playbook.
Click to expand...

did almost the same....had a mansion rented(we may have stayed right next to each other)

piles of fine white and 30-40 chicas


just a great place Jaco/Los Suenos......heaven on earth
 
nice hit on temple rex......ur truckjob marathon probably cost u on temple sec half.....line was 9.5....I'm pretty sure u would have hammer that....gl today
 
Twink, Rex is spot on with regards to Utah. Finally getting the speed they need at the skill positions to go with stout line play. They have a qb commit from s Florida that is going to be awesome if he sticks. Some big name programs are starting to show interest. Tyler Huntley. This is Utah's deepest team ever and I've been a fan since the late 80's.

GL today Rex!
 
I made Liberty -7. I am very down on Ga State, they fucked me vs. UNCC in the opener then got me again going against them at Oregon.

Still think they are awful. Easy take, win or lose...

2H Indiana +12.5 med to big 2.5u
 
MY first use of CTG in years. Just wanted to say thanks for the winners today.You don't have to do this, it is hard work, but you have the knack! iI believe that some other more sinister habits ruin people so you deserve the forum's respect and love.
Night Rex
 
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