CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Ended up losing a bit over 3 units last week for my first losing week of the season. Let's see if I can rectify that this week; some early plays were put in because I will be in the Phoenix area all weekend. I will be working the halftime of the early Saturday games, but that's it. Will be busy with a buddy's wedding the rest of the afternoon/evening.
Plays are in, might add one or two based on the prices later in the week if better numbers pop.
UNC-Charlotte is bad. I was fortunate to win a couple of units last week on Florida Atlantic, who is equally shitty. Weather might have played somewhat of a factor, but after looking at that box and hearing the highlights, I immediately dropped FAU several points and Charlotte one more out of principle. I now make Temple -31 in this game. The Owls are off a bad effort, are well coached and had a bye to tune for the conference portion of the schedule. The 49ers have 14 turnovers in the last two games, and this will be the best defense they've seen yet. I would be stunned if they score, to be honest. Temple RB Thomas ranks near the top of the nation in all purpose yards and will have a field day in the first half before being taken out of this slaughter. Backdoor should be shut by defense trying to preserve a shutout late; score it something around 41-0.
The play: 107 Temple -23 big 3u.
Kansas might get its QB back this week, but what does that mean when they still can't tackle? Iowa State beat a solid I-AA in the opener and have suffered close losses to Iowa and Toledo that could have went either way. There is a big dropoff from ninth to last in the 10-team Big XII, and we're about to find that out in Ames this weekend.
The play: 126 Iowa State -15.5 med 2u. I would still lay the 16 for the same, which is most widely available currently.
Oklahoma off a bye and the offense seems to be okay after torching Tusla a couple of weeks ago, but this is a different beast that they're facing this week. West By God Virginia is quietly flying under the radar, with covers by 27 and 22.5 so far. The Mountaineers could have named the score against Maryland last week and it seems be it for geographical reasons or otherwise, WVU sorta gets left out of any conversation about competing for a league title. Make no mistake, people won't want to make the trek to Morgantown against Holgo's fierce defense (8 ppg allowed, a far cry from what reputed national-title contender TCU can offer on that side) and this seems to be his best team yet by a good amount. A win here propels them right into every conversation, league-wise and nationally. Dog on a 12-3-1 ATS run in WV games even after the favored Mounties enjoyed whitewash wins against Georgia Southern and Maryland this season. If Tulsa could put up 600 plus against the Sooners, what might the balanced WV attack come up with?
The play: 135 West By God Virginia +7 big 3u. Also +230 ML for another unit.
Taking a stab with Iowa in Madison Saturday. The Hawkeyes allow under 2.7 yards per carry. UW has beaten up on three patsies since the loss in the opener at Bama; this will be a stiff test. Iowa is battle-tested in gutting one out over ISU and Pitt, in an emotional spot at home. Typical Ferentz; he sneaks up and wins 9 or 10 when you expect 6 or 7 - this looks like a year Iowa can win the west and a win in this spot will go a long way to get them toward the goal. Wiskydicks are missing their starting RB, and I can't count on that 17th year QB to try to win a clutch game for them. Iowa has held the Badgers to 18 or less in five of the last nine in the series; I'll call for Iowa outright, but the points are fine.
The play: 137 Iowa +7 smallish, 1.2 units or so.
K-State with four straight covers against Okie Light, and this effort in Stillwater should make it five. OSU off a draining and very fortunate (yes, Texas shot itself in the foot numerous times but the refs stuck it to the Horns there also; not sure what the hell was behind that?) win in Austin, while K-State had a bye week for the best coach in college football to make adjustments. Expect KSU new QB Hubener to show some new wrinkles to his offense this week, and this is a lot of points to give Bill Snyder. Close call; not sure who will win but gun to head I think K-State can do it. The points are just gravy. Wildcats have covered seven straight on the road when catching 7 or more.
The play: 147 K-State +8 small to med 1.5u
Thanks to our friends at Right Angle for giving me a better price on my new favorite team, the Houston Cougars. Cougs are now 11-0-1 ATS last 12 on the road ATS, though with the new regime I'm only interested in what Ward and the UH offense (689 yards last week)) can do this year. Tulsa has a great coach and will rapidly improve, but are catching the best team in the league at the wrong time. QB Evans was picked three times last season by the Cougar defense, which seems hell-bent to return to its turnover-forcing ways of a couple seasons ago.
The play: 149 Houston -5 med to big 2.5u. Would also lay the current widely available 5.5 for the same.
Florida State has outscored Wake 154-6 in the last three meetings. Don't think it's asking too much for FSU to extend a margin on the road here after a bit of extra prep time. Lukewarm endorsement here having to lay a big price; Jimbo is just 5-13 last 18 ATS although last year's shavers had something to do with a lot of the failures in this run.
The play: 203 Florida State -19 small 1u.
Later in the season, I doubt I'd have this play but I will tepidly endorse Utah State against Colo St. Sure, there are things working against me. Higgins is back healthy and the Rams took CU and Minnesota to ot in close losses. As much as I love Chuckie Keeton, I have to think that backup QB Myers at this point is probably an upgrade over him. Low-scoring games in this series as of late, meaning laying points is a dangerous proposition. Still, I made the game 8.5 and will endorse a lay in this spot in Logan.
The play: 208 Utah State -4 (-109) small to med 1.5u. Would only bet 1u maximum at anything worse than 4 flat all the way up to 5.5 flat. No play at anything above that.
Eight pieces as of now; looking to possibly add later in the week if anything else pops. I'll be able to comment for the next day or so; then I'll try to catch up on Thursday night on whatever I'm missing!
GL!
:shake:
Plays are in, might add one or two based on the prices later in the week if better numbers pop.
UNC-Charlotte is bad. I was fortunate to win a couple of units last week on Florida Atlantic, who is equally shitty. Weather might have played somewhat of a factor, but after looking at that box and hearing the highlights, I immediately dropped FAU several points and Charlotte one more out of principle. I now make Temple -31 in this game. The Owls are off a bad effort, are well coached and had a bye to tune for the conference portion of the schedule. The 49ers have 14 turnovers in the last two games, and this will be the best defense they've seen yet. I would be stunned if they score, to be honest. Temple RB Thomas ranks near the top of the nation in all purpose yards and will have a field day in the first half before being taken out of this slaughter. Backdoor should be shut by defense trying to preserve a shutout late; score it something around 41-0.
The play: 107 Temple -23 big 3u.
Kansas might get its QB back this week, but what does that mean when they still can't tackle? Iowa State beat a solid I-AA in the opener and have suffered close losses to Iowa and Toledo that could have went either way. There is a big dropoff from ninth to last in the 10-team Big XII, and we're about to find that out in Ames this weekend.
The play: 126 Iowa State -15.5 med 2u. I would still lay the 16 for the same, which is most widely available currently.
Oklahoma off a bye and the offense seems to be okay after torching Tusla a couple of weeks ago, but this is a different beast that they're facing this week. West By God Virginia is quietly flying under the radar, with covers by 27 and 22.5 so far. The Mountaineers could have named the score against Maryland last week and it seems be it for geographical reasons or otherwise, WVU sorta gets left out of any conversation about competing for a league title. Make no mistake, people won't want to make the trek to Morgantown against Holgo's fierce defense (8 ppg allowed, a far cry from what reputed national-title contender TCU can offer on that side) and this seems to be his best team yet by a good amount. A win here propels them right into every conversation, league-wise and nationally. Dog on a 12-3-1 ATS run in WV games even after the favored Mounties enjoyed whitewash wins against Georgia Southern and Maryland this season. If Tulsa could put up 600 plus against the Sooners, what might the balanced WV attack come up with?
The play: 135 West By God Virginia +7 big 3u. Also +230 ML for another unit.
Taking a stab with Iowa in Madison Saturday. The Hawkeyes allow under 2.7 yards per carry. UW has beaten up on three patsies since the loss in the opener at Bama; this will be a stiff test. Iowa is battle-tested in gutting one out over ISU and Pitt, in an emotional spot at home. Typical Ferentz; he sneaks up and wins 9 or 10 when you expect 6 or 7 - this looks like a year Iowa can win the west and a win in this spot will go a long way to get them toward the goal. Wiskydicks are missing their starting RB, and I can't count on that 17th year QB to try to win a clutch game for them. Iowa has held the Badgers to 18 or less in five of the last nine in the series; I'll call for Iowa outright, but the points are fine.
The play: 137 Iowa +7 smallish, 1.2 units or so.
K-State with four straight covers against Okie Light, and this effort in Stillwater should make it five. OSU off a draining and very fortunate (yes, Texas shot itself in the foot numerous times but the refs stuck it to the Horns there also; not sure what the hell was behind that?) win in Austin, while K-State had a bye week for the best coach in college football to make adjustments. Expect KSU new QB Hubener to show some new wrinkles to his offense this week, and this is a lot of points to give Bill Snyder. Close call; not sure who will win but gun to head I think K-State can do it. The points are just gravy. Wildcats have covered seven straight on the road when catching 7 or more.
The play: 147 K-State +8 small to med 1.5u
Thanks to our friends at Right Angle for giving me a better price on my new favorite team, the Houston Cougars. Cougs are now 11-0-1 ATS last 12 on the road ATS, though with the new regime I'm only interested in what Ward and the UH offense (689 yards last week)) can do this year. Tulsa has a great coach and will rapidly improve, but are catching the best team in the league at the wrong time. QB Evans was picked three times last season by the Cougar defense, which seems hell-bent to return to its turnover-forcing ways of a couple seasons ago.
The play: 149 Houston -5 med to big 2.5u. Would also lay the current widely available 5.5 for the same.
Florida State has outscored Wake 154-6 in the last three meetings. Don't think it's asking too much for FSU to extend a margin on the road here after a bit of extra prep time. Lukewarm endorsement here having to lay a big price; Jimbo is just 5-13 last 18 ATS although last year's shavers had something to do with a lot of the failures in this run.
The play: 203 Florida State -19 small 1u.
Later in the season, I doubt I'd have this play but I will tepidly endorse Utah State against Colo St. Sure, there are things working against me. Higgins is back healthy and the Rams took CU and Minnesota to ot in close losses. As much as I love Chuckie Keeton, I have to think that backup QB Myers at this point is probably an upgrade over him. Low-scoring games in this series as of late, meaning laying points is a dangerous proposition. Still, I made the game 8.5 and will endorse a lay in this spot in Logan.
The play: 208 Utah State -4 (-109) small to med 1.5u. Would only bet 1u maximum at anything worse than 4 flat all the way up to 5.5 flat. No play at anything above that.
Eight pieces as of now; looking to possibly add later in the week if anything else pops. I'll be able to comment for the next day or so; then I'll try to catch up on Thursday night on whatever I'm missing!
GL!
:shake:
