CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Ended up a loser last week because BYU and Virginia Tech took it in the ass. Feel a bit unlucky in both games. BYU had the lead and the ball late and could not complete a third-down pass and gave up a second short-field (inside 15 yards) in one half. Awfully tough to overcome that on the road, and VT's defense played great but two special teams scores and a QB that could not complete a pass eventually doomed me there. Has any QB in the world fallen on tougher times in the last 365 days than Logan Thomas? I mean even Matt Barkley didn't have it this bad. Southern Cal 2H Thursday was also a bit of a tough one to take especially considering they had gotten to the number finally only to give up a 60 yard TD pass with less than 45 seconds left.
Central Florida, Rice 2H and Cincy were all winners. I will be going much more aggressively this week than last. Amazing how much off I am on some of these teams. Gotta trust my numbers and hope for the best. At least the Doyers keep winning as a dog. Just gonna name my first-born son Doyer if this keeps up.
Maybe UT-San Antonio is better than what I thought, but beating New Mexico hardly qualifies them to step into this spot and compete against an Oklahoma State team that should put up dizzying numbers indoors.
The play: Okie State -26 -105 small to medium
Tout drove me onto another play for way more than I anticipated. Cincinnati needs to make statements for both themselves and their league, and they looked solid last week. Purdue won't end up being much, but this Illinois is a disease also. Home field should mean little here, and if the Illini were tooth-and-nail with a I-AA at home, how are they gonna handle this bunch?
The play: Cincinnati at -7 -120 or better big. Will wait this out at the current price and see what the market does. I'll end up laying 9 at close to even money if the '7' doesn't pop back up.
I can't see any reasonable way that South Alabama competes with Tulane in the Superdome for 60 minutes. Home-field edge is minimal but I made this one much higher. Missed the 6 so will pass for now. If it goes back down and I can lock it in at -6, consider it a medium play. If I have to lay 7-ish, it will only be small.
Chalk City continues in Tulsa. Hard to tell if I got a bad number on the Hurricane after they shat the bed in Bowling Green last week but I really was not impressed with Colorado State at all. Tough to say how bad my numbers are when I make Tulsa 19 and another guy I respect makes them 18; bottom line is that it's good enough to bet.
The play: Tulsa -10 -105 medium.
Where did they get this Auburn line? I have these two teams as virtual equals on paper. ASU looks to be the cream of the Sun Belt crop, although I have a feeling Western might have something to say about that with Petrino already asserting himself as the 2nd-best team in the state after last week's beatdown of UK. Anyway, Aubbie looks second-worst in the SEC and the Malzahn angle cannot be ignored. Should be a hell of a game and they're trying to give us two touchdowns. Sick. No play at the current price but at +14 it will be a big bet. Waiting out that number; if +13 good juice is the best I can get, jot me down for a medium play on the Injuns of Jonesboro.
Nadders should go up and down the field against Army and I was very impressed with their second half against a solid Illinois State team last Thursday, especially seeing what some other Top 15 I-AA teams did last week. Their weakness up front with an inexperienced line could be exploited somewhat by the Army Double Eagle Flex, which tries to put a lot of pressure on the line with 5 down linemen more or less. But the Nadders had an extra couple of days to prep and will try to get the game played at their pace (they want to run 80 plays or so per game on offense, while Morgan State/Army combined for just 112 snaps last week). Will again wait this one out, as it's sitting close to a key number. At 7, it's a big play. At 7.5 through 9 it's medium to big.
I made Penn State way higher. Not sure whether I like them (or their coach most likely) or dislike Eastern. Prolly a little of both but it's an easy lay when you make the game 10 full points higher.
The play: Penn State -23.5 medium.
Chalk sammiches continue in Manhattan this week. U-La-La looked lost, and K-State just got beat up by ND State. Happens when you face real good teams, so I can't downgrade K-State TOO much. A Bill Snyder team will improve, and you'd have to think they'll get better QB play this week.
The play: K-State -10 medium
Arizona I made way higher against Vegas. Could be a bad spot here as UNLV has more prep time and the score last week was deceiving in Minneapolis, but I see little chance for the Rebs to stop the Rich Rod offense with any consistency, and with two stud RB's pining for carries, this one could get ugly and stay that way. It's a lay.
The play: Arizona -10 medium.
San Jose State might well be the best team in the MWC through one week, which doesn't say much considering the league fell on its ass last weekend but this is a lot of points for Stanford to lay even though the Spartans lost their coach. They played this team tooth and nail for 60 minutes last year and I expect this one to stay close into the fourth quarter as well before the Tree wears them down.
The play: San Jose +25 +105 medium
One extra play so far, looking for tru/bull/et al help on the I-AA vs. I-A games but one I saw was way out of line was Sammy Houston +45 vs. Texas A&M. If Ayyunem struggled mightily with Arroz last week, they'll be in for a long day against one of the best offenses at the I-AA level. The Ags have Bama on deck so won't be showing too many of their cards in this spot. Look for a 4-touchdown type win as they cruise in the last 20 minutes. Got down for medium bets before destroying the price. Would bet it all the way to +43 for the same.
Any other extra games, I always welcome the insights and will be looking for the Bullsheet and for others who play that shit, as there seems to be a decently developed market at this point of the week, surprisingly enough.
Lots of chalk, my friend Vasilios would chuckle at me trying to choke on all of it; we'll see what happens.
Best of luck to all this week...
:shake:
Central Florida, Rice 2H and Cincy were all winners. I will be going much more aggressively this week than last. Amazing how much off I am on some of these teams. Gotta trust my numbers and hope for the best. At least the Doyers keep winning as a dog. Just gonna name my first-born son Doyer if this keeps up.
Maybe UT-San Antonio is better than what I thought, but beating New Mexico hardly qualifies them to step into this spot and compete against an Oklahoma State team that should put up dizzying numbers indoors.
The play: Okie State -26 -105 small to medium
Tout drove me onto another play for way more than I anticipated. Cincinnati needs to make statements for both themselves and their league, and they looked solid last week. Purdue won't end up being much, but this Illinois is a disease also. Home field should mean little here, and if the Illini were tooth-and-nail with a I-AA at home, how are they gonna handle this bunch?
The play: Cincinnati at -7 -120 or better big. Will wait this out at the current price and see what the market does. I'll end up laying 9 at close to even money if the '7' doesn't pop back up.
I can't see any reasonable way that South Alabama competes with Tulane in the Superdome for 60 minutes. Home-field edge is minimal but I made this one much higher. Missed the 6 so will pass for now. If it goes back down and I can lock it in at -6, consider it a medium play. If I have to lay 7-ish, it will only be small.
Chalk City continues in Tulsa. Hard to tell if I got a bad number on the Hurricane after they shat the bed in Bowling Green last week but I really was not impressed with Colorado State at all. Tough to say how bad my numbers are when I make Tulsa 19 and another guy I respect makes them 18; bottom line is that it's good enough to bet.
The play: Tulsa -10 -105 medium.
Where did they get this Auburn line? I have these two teams as virtual equals on paper. ASU looks to be the cream of the Sun Belt crop, although I have a feeling Western might have something to say about that with Petrino already asserting himself as the 2nd-best team in the state after last week's beatdown of UK. Anyway, Aubbie looks second-worst in the SEC and the Malzahn angle cannot be ignored. Should be a hell of a game and they're trying to give us two touchdowns. Sick. No play at the current price but at +14 it will be a big bet. Waiting out that number; if +13 good juice is the best I can get, jot me down for a medium play on the Injuns of Jonesboro.
Nadders should go up and down the field against Army and I was very impressed with their second half against a solid Illinois State team last Thursday, especially seeing what some other Top 15 I-AA teams did last week. Their weakness up front with an inexperienced line could be exploited somewhat by the Army Double Eagle Flex, which tries to put a lot of pressure on the line with 5 down linemen more or less. But the Nadders had an extra couple of days to prep and will try to get the game played at their pace (they want to run 80 plays or so per game on offense, while Morgan State/Army combined for just 112 snaps last week). Will again wait this one out, as it's sitting close to a key number. At 7, it's a big play. At 7.5 through 9 it's medium to big.
I made Penn State way higher. Not sure whether I like them (or their coach most likely) or dislike Eastern. Prolly a little of both but it's an easy lay when you make the game 10 full points higher.
The play: Penn State -23.5 medium.
Chalk sammiches continue in Manhattan this week. U-La-La looked lost, and K-State just got beat up by ND State. Happens when you face real good teams, so I can't downgrade K-State TOO much. A Bill Snyder team will improve, and you'd have to think they'll get better QB play this week.
The play: K-State -10 medium
Arizona I made way higher against Vegas. Could be a bad spot here as UNLV has more prep time and the score last week was deceiving in Minneapolis, but I see little chance for the Rebs to stop the Rich Rod offense with any consistency, and with two stud RB's pining for carries, this one could get ugly and stay that way. It's a lay.
The play: Arizona -10 medium.
San Jose State might well be the best team in the MWC through one week, which doesn't say much considering the league fell on its ass last weekend but this is a lot of points for Stanford to lay even though the Spartans lost their coach. They played this team tooth and nail for 60 minutes last year and I expect this one to stay close into the fourth quarter as well before the Tree wears them down.
The play: San Jose +25 +105 medium
One extra play so far, looking for tru/bull/et al help on the I-AA vs. I-A games but one I saw was way out of line was Sammy Houston +45 vs. Texas A&M. If Ayyunem struggled mightily with Arroz last week, they'll be in for a long day against one of the best offenses at the I-AA level. The Ags have Bama on deck so won't be showing too many of their cards in this spot. Look for a 4-touchdown type win as they cruise in the last 20 minutes. Got down for medium bets before destroying the price. Would bet it all the way to +43 for the same.
Any other extra games, I always welcome the insights and will be looking for the Bullsheet and for others who play that shit, as there seems to be a decently developed market at this point of the week, surprisingly enough.
Lots of chalk, my friend Vasilios would chuckle at me trying to choke on all of it; we'll see what happens.
Best of luck to all this week...
:shake:
