Rexy's Week 1 College...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Here's to another prosperous season to all, and a big hello to everyone in the best college football forum on the interwebs.

One play so far, and it's gifted to us on Monday because of Right Angle's betting on the other side and leading his minions to the loser.

Brigham Young is the play. I was hoping to lay anything inside of 3 when the line flew at my head. Was able to take +1 at BetOnline (shameless plug, if you don't have an account there, click here http://www.betonline.ag/?btag=a_4238b_4c_&affid=3150 and sign up and check them out. They open before anyone else in football, baseball and most anything) after he over-moved it.

Cleaned up on the rest of the pick-em at pinny (-106) and CRIS.

BYU's offense was pedestrian at best last year, but should receive a nice boost from the return of dual-threat QB Taysom Hill, who returns from a gruesome knee injury. By all accounts from Provo, he's done everything to prepare to get back under center in a game other than take a hit. Here's hoping he'll be a little more careful this year. That said, he won't be nicked up going into the opener, a big edge there. BYU had a complete makeover on offense with five new offensive coaches and is expected to run a hurry-up, spread style system similar to Rich Rodriguez’s. Jamaal Williams (775 yards rushing, 12 TDs) returns at RB, and I expect him to make great strides and emerge as an offensive leader. Senior Cody Hoffman (100 catches, 1,248 yards, 11 TDs) is the top receiver. The O-line returns four starters, although it was bad enough that the Cougars signed four junior college players to compete for those jobs. It will be interesting to see who gets the majority of the reps at the new H-back position. Blitzkrieger Jon Tenuta takes over the reigns of calling the Hoos defense. This is a bit of a concern as he'll try to force Hill into mistakes, and the Cougs won't get much film prep in because of the changes on defense. But they'll have to improve by leaps and bounds. Take out a 33-6 win over NC State where they forced five turnovers, and the Hoos only forced SEVEN turnovers the entire season. ONE interception and six fumber recoveries in the other 11 games. That's hideous. Turnover margin is one of two areas under London where the Hoos have been God-awful. The other is special teams. UVa ranked second to last in the country last year in F/+ (mediocre kicking - 11 for 17 FGs, real bad kick coverage - they gave up 27.5 ypr with 2 scores, and a below-average return game).

Change is a big word in Charlottesville. I've never been a Mike London fan, and after all the bullshit breaks he caught in winning eight times in 2011, the regression came and came harshly last fall. He had to fire four assistants and watch a fifth go to the Niffel after last season. While the UVa defense should stifle BYU most of the afternoon, I can't see their offense doing much of anything.

The Cougars were one of the nation’s best defenses last season, allowing just 86.9 yards rushing per game and holding five opponents to seven points or less. Only four starters return, but there is quality depth on defense in Provo these days. All-American candidate Kyle Van Noy leads the way. BYU forced foes to start drives on their own 25-yard line last year (average, which was best in the country). Losing Ezekiel Ansah will hurt, but Van Noy was a stud even before Ansah was playing full-time so it's not like they won't be able to overcome it. This will be one of the most pedestrian attacks that Brigham Young will face, led by not-touted QB David Watford, who was gifted the starting QB job when Phillip Sims transferred out. Watford averaged only 4.7 yards per pass attempt in his career (seven games, spot duty). Bottom line: there won't be a team in I-A football playing at home this weekend that should score fewer points than Virginia.

Not one to play the score-comparison game too often, but I found it interesting to note the Cavaliers lost by 36 points last year to Georgia Tech, a team the Cougars crushed later in the season.

The play: BYU PICK and +1 big. Would be big all the way to -1.

Back later in the week as I continue to add games.

:shake:

GL to us all this year...
 
glad you are back rexy! Hopefully work doens't keep ya to busy to post all your winners! gl this season!:shake:
 
rex, a lot of last year's posts are gone because of ctg crashing...do you know what your posted record was last season? thanks
 
Take out a 33-6 win over NC State where they forced five turnovers, and the Hoos only forced SEVEN turnovers the entire season. ONE interception and six fumber recoveries in the other 11 games. That's hideous.

That win sticks out like a sore thumb, and there's a reason for the anomalous result. NC State had blown a 10-point 4th-quarter lead in memorable fashion the previous week. UNC tied it on a FG with 1:24 to play, and then took the lead with a 76-yard punt return by Bernard with 0:13 left. State couldn't get up off the mat the next week. (It was just as memorable for bettors, as the pointspread winner was decided by a two-point pass by the holder after a bad snap.)
 
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I couldn't agree more with BYU as your favorite pick. (I'm still trying to figure out how Virginia covered against VT in the last game of the regular season by putting up a measly 217 yds on offense)

BYU is rock-solid on defense even with the loss of 7 players. The fact that they held opponents to an average of 15pts/gm is significant to say the least as they were even more impressive holding bowl level opponents to only 18pts to back it up. The defensive system is the key, as coaching is what makes it work and not so much as who is playing. The Cougars have held 16 of the last 19 opponents to under 300 yds offense and that includes smashing SDSU in the bowl game and only allowing 263 yards.

I lined this game as BYU -5, with an extra -3 just on defense (likely turnovers by Virg)as the Cavs will get beat in all four quarters in this one. This line is off by a full td and more as -8 would still not turn me away. Special teams (with BYU speed) will also rule this one. I agree that this could be the lowest scoring teams at home and all season.

In the last 16 years these two tangled twice and both times the home team lost SU.

GL in week one.
 
Thanks fellas...

Dickydunn - I made the game 15.5, I really have no idea about North Texas, they were one of a handful of teams that I can't get a pulse on before watching them play a couple of times.

Big Units - I won 8 straight weeks in football from about week 3 to 10, lost some in mid to late November, won a little in early December and bowls were an overall winner for me. It was my best season money-wise, ever, and put me in a position to have a bankroll that's much more in line with what is necessary considering how much i was betting last year. Winning 90 plus units in baseball in 2013 has helped also (average play about 1.5 or 2 units).

MW - I remember those games, the xpt was a sick beat as many people had 7 for a middle.

Cappinggenious - appreciate the insight although i really don't understand what you meant when you said you lined this game 5 and would still not be scared at -8. The whole point of long term earnings in this business is predicated on getting the best of the number. It doesn't matter how good you handicap seasons, teams, leagues, or individual games; in the long run you cannot win if you take secondary or worse numbers.

I have way the best of it going into this one and if it flies in my face at this point i will be surprised. Nothing else on the card of now. I guess my number would support a play on Minnesota -13 if it got there but sheez, do I really want to do that? I also lean Central Florida at 23 or better and might still bet that at some point; if anyone has thoughts there by all means share if you can.

GL fellas...
 
a few questions if u dont mind.
1. thoughts on the USC/Haw total?
2. thoughts on Utah/Utah St.- I leaned to Utah state for a long time and now I am questioning it. I think Utah has the better coach and has revenge on their mind after losing to state last yr. utah home game too
 
I think Hawaii's offense will struggle at times but USC has an entirely new defense and probably won't be sharp tonight. Hawaii should score some points, enough to possibly cover. USC outclassed them last year but that game was before we saw how much of a fraud USC was and probation has continued to saddle their depth. Maybe score it 37-13 or so, guess a slight lean to UNDER gun to my head.

I made Utah a 1.5 point favorite, no real strong opinion. How much will the Utags miss their coach? Hard to get a good read on them, especially with new skill players everywhere around the stud QB. The line should be competitive on both sides but it's a dart-throw to me. If I do anything at halftime in that game (or any others), I will post it in here...
 
One play now. Line has to have peaked here. Not much to say; you cannot give Frank Beamer three scores and extra points against the Redskins, let alone a college team.

The play: Virginia Tech +21 medium to big.
 
Central Florida -23 medium. Akron is hideous. I made the game 30; we'll see how long the Knights stay on the gas. Should have laid 13 first half, i fucked that all up.
 
Do your typical thing this year Rex. Always one of the first threads I click on during Saturday Bloody Mary season.

Nice walk in the park on the Knights today.
 
Thanks fellas. USC -10 -115 2H worst price, medium to big is all I could find.

Hawaii zero chance to score if Lane stays his dickish self and gets on the gas.
 
Zero chance to score until a 60 yard pass with 30 seconds left to F me out of the push. God, USC sucks.

The BYU game is going to go up shortly everywhere, if you have not gotten at pick or -1, go now. It won't be there for much longer. Nothing for me tonight, GL...
 
Yeah that last defensive collapse by USC was pathetic. I got screwed out of a 4-0 night by that one.
 
One play now. Line has to have peaked here. Not much to say; you cannot give Frank Beamer three scores and extra points against the Redskins, let alone a college team.

The play: Virginia Tech +21 medium to big.

*homer content alert*
sorry but this bama team is legit. its a big number but i don't think tech has a chance to stop them. bama scores every other possession.
 
who knows. I thought it was going to move. A friend of mine told me a mover keyed it up earlier, but I guess he never submitted the bet. I never found out what happened. Going to bed, we'll find out in the AM. I still have the confidence I had on Monday, despite how everything else has gone for me this week (I'm buried).
 
Not the best start for me either bro.... Get a tica and get ready for Sat

May add it anyway fuck it.

Lookin at Temple and a few other leans....lemme know what else you eyeing 2mrw and GL

Opinion on Temple?
 
Good luck this year Rex. You make a very compelling case for BYU and have me thinking about an add.
Interested on what you expect from Marshall this yr especially on defense. I already laid the pts vs the Redskins but wondering what you see in comparison to last year's shoddy unit.
 
Hi Marsski, hope all is well brother.

Walters messed around with that game real good last night but Stevie Wonder could have seen it coming if you were paying attention to the movement all week. Notice how the sharp early money (types like yourself and others who might be satisfied with only a nickel and a dime and who have sharper numbers than the BOL/Vegas openers) took out Marshall at open. He tried to seed Miami some to slowly nudge it back down, then hammered it last night about 6 Eastern, only to come back and blast into Marshall about 7 EDT. This sort of thing bodes badly for the Foreskins. I'm not sure I'm drinking the Blundering Turd Kool-Aid such as others like Steele, but they'll be an explosive offense when they're not punching above their weight. This game would qualify. I'm not sold on their defense; I'll believe an improvement in their defense when I see it. Today they play one of the most pedestrian offenses in I-A football, and that's saying something considering what's going on in Amherst, Miami (with FIU), Ypsilanti, and what we've already seen out of Atlanta, Boca Raton, Akron, Storrs, Winston-Salem and Mobile (are there really that many bad teams who have already played?).

I would only have Temple. Notre Dame hasn't laid this price since 2005. Temple has't lost by more than 30 points since 2008. Easy enough for me. It's not that I've had a bad week in the football, my two bets were UCF medium and USC 2H big. It's the baseball that was real bad, although last night did a lot in turning things around. Might actually be able to fire a bit more today. As of now, though, the only pendings are on VT and BYU.
 
Hi Marsski, hope all is well brother.

Walters messed around with that game real good last night but Stevie Wonder could have seen it coming if you were paying attention to the movement all week. Notice how the sharp early money (types like yourself and others who might be satisfied with only a nickel and a dime and who have sharper numbers than the BOL/Vegas openers) took out Marshall at open. He tried to seed Miami some to slowly nudge it back down, then hammered it last night about 6 Eastern, only to come back and blast into Marshall about 7 EDT. This sort of thing bodes badly for the Foreskins. I'm not sure I'm drinking the Blundering Turd Kool-Aid such as others like Steele, but they'll be an explosive offense when they're not punching above their weight. This game would qualify. I'm not sold on their defense; I'll believe an improvement in their defense when I see it. Today they play one of the most pedestrian offenses in I-A football, and that's saying something considering what's going on in Amherst, Miami (with FIU), Ypsilanti, and what we've already seen out of Atlanta, Boca Raton, Akron, Storrs, Winston-Salem and Mobile (are there really that many bad teams who have already played?).

I would only have Temple. Notre Dame hasn't laid this price since 2005. Temple has't lost by more than 30 points since 2008. Easy enough for me. It's not that I've had a bad week in the football, my two bets were UCF medium and USC 2H big. It's the baseball that was real bad, although last night did a lot in turning things around. Might actually be able to fire a bit more today. As of now, though, the only pendings are on VT and BYU.

I can see why Walters plowed it. Miami is gonna be shitty this year and you know Marshall is gonna have a big day on offense. Riding with you on BYU.
 
Adding one:

Cincinnati -10 -108 small to medium. I made this game much higher. Don't believe anything positive could have transpired yet at Purdue, who was unfortunately the worst bowl team in America last year and slotted to play perhaps the best non-BCS team. The ensuing punishment should have surprised no one (I was on Okie Light pretty big). Now they bring in a guy from Kent State who caught lightning in a bottle for one year. Think Turner Gill Buffalo 2008, to Kansas. How did that turn out? Same thing gonna happen here. The wet and slick conditions make me a smidge timid but I made this game way higher.
 
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