2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hope my guy @Inspekdah been getting on them, I know he always liked the out totals best and now we doubly dangerous since I’ve added the unders to the tool bag!! Can I get a what what! Or woot woot! lol
Rest of May Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pretty solid day, we made a profit off all those plays. Mad at myself for not playing any cardinals hitter props and pissed I didn’t play Trevor Williams total outs in Seattle, I knew he be good in that park against this lineup, guess can’t play them all tho! So mad Greene was garbage, did not expect him to regress, wonder if he came back to soon? Before injury there no way he pitched like that vs kc below avg lineup. Maybe should sit out his next start and see where he at, if course then he will dominate! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Small card 2marro but already see potential, I’ll try to have some stuff up in morning, talking this stuff w ya’ll really the only thing that takes my mind off Theresa for awhile. And while I hate losing these last few plays the managers were totally the reason make me so angry! I deal with anger much better than sadness! lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hope they have Wheeler at 6.5 k’s again, that automatic. Matter a fact depending on number I could Dee playing both Philly pitcher k props in the double dip.
Have to look at jays vs lhp and springs but def lean springs in one way or another or A’s ml, I know they slumping and the manager had cost them a few wins which had compounded the losing, it can’t last forever they have to much young talent.
Rays have been on fire and think they have the starting pitcher edge. Even money tough to pass.
Gore in that pitchers paradise against Seattle lineup I smell a dominant performance!!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Great writeup by Action Network at the luck that Mahle has experienced so far this season. Of course the prediction for regression is obvious to the writer. I'll see if I can find the writeup when I get some time. Remind me if I forget, got a few things going on tomorrow including my first interview in over 25 years at 1pm. On Zoom so will be in a polo and underwear with tequila nearby. I plan on conducting the interview fwiw, lots of questions.
That said I need your take on Philly/Braves as the only morning game, will get me through the prep work. Insta look I'm seeing the potential for a bunch of swing and miss from both starters.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Regarding Mahle @2daBank this is the writeup. Curious your thoughts on it, hard to argue what they're saying. Granted he ran into a Jays team that has been complete shit with situational hitting lately. Some years guys just have it. If it becomes consistent, it's no longer luck in my book but the points they make are very valid for me.
Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has been a total luckbox this year (1.80 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 4.16 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB, 25.1% CSW) behind a low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (84.5%). He has a good fastball (100 Stuff+) and commands his arsenal well, but all his secondaries grade out poorly.
Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has been a total luckbox this year (1.80 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 4.16 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB, 25.1% CSW) behind a low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (84.5%). He has a good fastball (100 Stuff+) and commands his arsenal well, but all his secondaries grade out poorly.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think a few starts back I said something similar, in my style think I said his numbers were a bit fugazi imo, I then he beat me, lol. Last night was def a lot more about him pitching vs jays lineup and in Texas park which has proven to be very pitcher friendly it seems. I’m always careful about advanced metrics claiming a guy overachieving cause as you said guys can figure something out, I’ve always felt the advanced stuff is a good tool but I think it punishes guys who just know how to pitch, I’ve seen far to many guys the die hard analytic types will fade and fade and just lose over and over, then the guy has one bad start and they all come out to say “I told ya, regression!” Opposed to just a bad game, lol. I’m torn on Mahle, I think the park is helping him to a extent, I havnt really watched him much but I assume he has started figuring out ways to get weaker contact but I’m not 100% on that just a guess: I’m somewhat skeptical also considering what he been most his career but there no way I’d just fade him thinking regression coming any day, it have to be a situation I like. Another thing when the math nerds decide a guy is lucky they tend to drive prices like crazy often creating value on those guys, I’m not sure if he one those guys yet but my problem w takes based off straight analytics is they are far to black and white for me, i like most the world live in the grey area!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I like both pitches k props, Sanchez ov 5.5 a no brainer Braves sporting like a 28% strike out rate vs lefties and a ops well below .700 . They have hit Sanchez some but early start after a rain out think he prob punches 7.
The smith-shaver kid has a swinging strike that should prob make him 5.5, he has punched out 5+ in 6 of 8, Phillies swing for the fences and miss plenty, he has a good splitter as long he doesn’t get run early I don’t think he has any problem getting 5..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
they not playing w my guy gore, 7.5 number is not a over k’s I like to play real often but it super tempting vs Seattle. M’s have actually hit lefties much better this year but they still strike out quite a bit vs them, might prefer the over 16.5 total outs here but I havnt dug real deep or decided quite yet. We got awhile before that game tonight.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Berrios under 18.5 outs. No clue why they got this dude to pitch more than 6? He has done it 2x all year, I think he has a better chance of getting knocked around than pitching this deep.
Gore ov 16.5 outs… I just couldnt bring myself to play over 7.5 k’s even tho he could easily strike out 10. He has went 6+ innings in 8 of 11 starts and pitching in one the best parks for pitchers. Seattle has hit lefties better this year than in the past but he isn’t exactly your average lhp.
Gore ov 16.5 outs… I just couldnt bring myself to play over 7.5 k’s even tho he could easily strike out 10. He has went 6+ innings in 8 of 11 starts and pitching in one the best parks for pitchers. Seattle has hit lefties better this year than in the past but he isn’t exactly your average lhp.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Odd stat of day. The cubs lineup has had 50ish plate appearances vs Abbot and he only has 3k’s vs them!! That crazy in today’s game where I think I could prob get a few k’s!! Not like Abbott can’t miss bats, he does have 45k’s in 40 innings pitched this year; cubs must see the ball out his hands really well, they also sport a collective exit velo of 92mph which is pretty high, 2 guys over 95 mph which the “hard contact” standard, and 2 with a exit velo over 100, PCA in 3 at bats is at 103 yet doesn’t have a hit, that won’t continue he keeps hitting it that hard!! He isn’t great vs lhp but think he worth a shot seeing how hard he has hit the ball vs Abbott.
On the other side de la Cruz been on fire and he has mashed Rea, going 6 for 13 with a triple and 2 bombs. So let’s try a few hitter props in the day game.
Crow-Armstrong ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
De la Cruz ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
De La cruz ov .5 stolen bases
On the other side de la Cruz been on fire and he has mashed Rea, going 6 for 13 with a triple and 2 bombs. So let’s try a few hitter props in the day game.
Crow-Armstrong ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
De la Cruz ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
De La cruz ov .5 stolen bases
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Been on a really good roll with the pitcher out totals, not trying to sound like a cocky douche but that nothing new we have hit a pretty high clip on these since I started playing the pitcher props years back. This one could be a little dicey but gotta think outside the box sometimes. Freeland has a 16.5 total and think the over has some value here. Forget about his home games, we all know it hardly fair pitching at Coors, in his road starts this year he has cleared 17 outs in all but one road start in a game against the pads he only managed 5 innings. He has went 6+ on road vs rays, Phillies, Ranger, and giants. He has a really good history vs the Mets hitters and in Mets park. I don’t think it crazy to expect him to go at least 5.2 innings and get the cash (hopefully the humble brag didn’t jinx me! lol).
Freeland ov 16.5 outs
Freeland ov 16.5 outs
I like it!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Getting ready to look at that game soon as finished w lunch. You know I’m a mize fan and Lugo coming off a short stint on il, Def lean tigers at price and 1st glance.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Looks like playing more hitter props than usual today. Ramirez up to a 21 game hit streak I believe. I a firm believer riding the hot hand is one the better ways to cash hitter props (remember last year we cashed Buxton like 15 straight!!). Icing on the cake Ramirez is 4 for 10 vs Soriano w 3 bombs! The total bases pays much better than the h/r/RBI so my solution is gonna split this, total bases straight and then over h/r/rbi in a parlay.
Ramirez ov 1.5 total bases.
Over 1.5 h/r/rbi as parlay partner.
Ramirez ov 1.5 total bases.
Over 1.5 h/r/rbi as parlay partner.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Be cool if they hung a number of ground outs on this. I don't consider KC as a high K offense
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
This is important
Why the 3.5? Are they just hanging their hats on being against Mize Ks or are they stupidly lobbing the number out there? Or do they know he got a blister from wanking one in the shower this morning?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Actually little surprised his swinging strike % is very good this year also! Over 12% which is usually the benchmark for guys to have a 5.5 hung. He did only have 3 vs kc earlier in the year despite 7 strong innings. Overall Royals do have strong numbers vs him but I expect those to come down the more times he faces them.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I trust him more than Greene honestly
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure bout that but Greene hasn’t looked same since coming off IL. It was just the exit velo some the cubs had vs him. And the total lack of k’s, I shoulda damn known the k’s were bound to come and it was a low number, feel like I made a mistake there. Still don’t think the 2 hitters were bad plays but he dealing.
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