Rest of May Discussion Thread

Shane smith has actually been pretty good for the chisox. 4.5 k’s isn’t a bad number to play him, he has a swinging strike rate above 12% which about my benchmark for considering over 5.5 so some value in over 4.5 imo, his k:bb rate been better in day games where he punching out about 1 per inning, so if he can go 5+ innings good chance he hits. Mets have quite a few left handed bats in lineup, his k% not quite as high vs lefties but he actually holds them to a lower ops, he has a really good change up so makes sense as that about the best weapon a rhp has vs lefties imo.

Looks like could be some rain heading to New York, that probably will keep me off this, to bad cause I do think he has a pretty good chance to punch out 5+, he has hit 5 or more in 5 his last 6 starts so I guess maybe just hold off and see what weather looks like before 1st pitch.
 
Man, I havnt really paid attention to him this year but wtf has happened to Bello? He never been incredibly consistent but if ya’ll recall I used to make plays on him a lot with pretty good success on when to play his out or k total. On the surface this season looks like he has really went into the shitter! I was hoping this be a chance to play him again milw not very good lineup but my gosh he walking 5 per 9 innings!! Only striking out 6 per. He hasn’t made it 5 innings in any his last 4 starts and now they hanging a 16.5 out total? Brewers lineup far from dangerous sporting a collective ops below .700 vs rhp but they are drawing a good amount of walks which could be all it takes to run bello early. If they can come up with a timely hit or 2 he won’t make it to 17 outs. Incredibly he has only allowed 3+ runs in 2 starts, gotta credit Cora for getting him the hell out of there!
 
A’s are really slumping but man McCullers ripe to get hit,I thought Bello walks were bad, this dude walking 7 per 9!! Not sure if the move is to play against McCullers props or to take the A’s at plus money? Maybe the A’s Ff ml the way to go cause Stros pen is still pretty good, thus dude hasn’t made it past 4.1 innings in any his 4 starts, has walked 3 in 3 of the 4 games. One these days a team is gonna come up with a big hit after the walks! Today could be the day? McCullers over 1.5 walks almost feels to easy but it pricey, same as his over 1.5 runs allowed. I think we could push the walks up to over 2.5 or even better I kinda like the idea of pushing the over 2.5 runs allowed for plus money. I imagine the reason he hasn’t been giving up the runs is cause they yank him and the pen bails him out of a jam. That can’t happen forever!
 
what you think bout Jobe @B.A.R. ? Feel like he has potential, kinda lean under 2.5 runs allowed
Last Friday was the first loss in one of his starts.

Now 8-1

He gave up those early 2 to Cleveland and I was worried but he really settled down and pitched damn good!

Check lineups, Hunt mentioned he thinks AJ rests some guys today. Not sure.
 
A’s are really slumping but man McCullers ripe to get hit,I thought Bello walks were bad, this dude walking 7 per 9!! Not sure if the move is to play against McCullers props or to take the A’s at plus money? Maybe the A’s Ff ml the way to go cause Stros pen is still pretty good, thus dude hasn’t made it past 4.1 innings in any his 4 starts, has walked 3 in 3 of the 4 games. One these days a team is gonna come up with a big hit after the walks! Today could be the day? McCullers over 1.5 walks almost feels to easy but it pricey, same as his over 1.5 runs allowed. I think we could push the walks up to over 2.5 or even better I kinda like the idea of pushing the over 2.5 runs allowed for plus money. I imagine the reason he hasn’t been giving up the runs is cause they yank him and the pen bails him out of a jam. That can’t happen forever!

A’s hitter props another way we could go about it. Wilson and Andujar the 2 I’m looking at as for whatever reason righties hitting McCullers hard. So let’s do this

A’s ml +123

2 team parlay

Wilson ov 1.5 h/r/rbi / andujar ov .5 hits

Andujar ov 1.5 h/r/rbi


Houston doesn’t have terrible numbers vs Sevi but nobody on the team other than Walker has a exit velo above 90mph against him so think Sevi should keep them in the game to hopefully break thru against a struggling McCullers.
 
A’s are really slumping but man McCullers ripe to get hit,I thought Bello walks were bad, this dude walking 7 per 9!! Not sure if the move is to play against McCullers props or to take the A’s at plus money? Maybe the A’s Ff ml the way to go cause Stros pen is still pretty good, thus dude hasn’t made it past 4.1 innings in any his 4 starts, has walked 3 in 3 of the 4 games. One these days a team is gonna come up with a big hit after the walks! Today could be the day? McCullers over 1.5 walks almost feels to easy but it pricey, same as his over 1.5 runs allowed. I think we could push the walks up to over 2.5 or even better I kinda like the idea of pushing the over 2.5 runs allowed for plus money. I imagine the reason he hasn’t been giving up the runs is cause they yank him and the pen bails him out of a jam. That can’t happen forever!
I took the 1st 5 over. Houston bats good #’s vs Severino.
 
So here my complete day card, ended up with quite a few so I lowered the bets as I’m not incredibly confident in anything but I think they long term winning plays. Think I talked about them all , if not or have any questions feel free to ask.

Already posted the A’s ml and props

Jobe under 2.5 earned runs

Bello under 17.5 outs

Ramirez ov 1.5 total bases

Machado ov 1.5 h/r/RBI

Twins ml

Steve smith ov 4.5 k’s, it looks to me like the rain is dying out before it gets to New York so gonna gamble a tad and hope no delay, no delay and as I talked bout think this a strong play.
 
Maybe I’m missing something with Bello? I’m baffled his out total went up to 17.5. I know milw offense leaves a lot to be desired but this kid hasn’t come close to pitching 6 innings, he gonna have to show me he has control, if he beats me so be it cause this number confusing as hell?
 
9 plays in just the day games, lmao. I’m afraid I should have just cut the grass cause I’m always gonna tell ya’ll the truth and truth is I don’t have any of these I think are slam dunks but I think we can profit off this strategy, If it wasn’t for the potential for rain in New York the smith k’s would be strong. The Bello outs going up confusing me to the point I worry I’m missing something or it be stronger. Anyways, I rather give us 2-4 plays i bet more on but fact is this day card is more about more plays, lower bets, and think we can turn a little profit, maybe we get lucky and hit them all!
 
Far as night games I can throw out the strongest play so far,

Wheeler over 6.5 k’s… I woulda made this 7.5 if I was them. Wheels has punched 7+ in wveey start vs Braves last last 2 years minus opening day last year which doesn’t matter to me. I believe I counted 4 games in that stretch.
 
Sorry if my thoughts were a tad scattered. Didn’t sleep much last night and didn’t plan on playing these day games, hopefully it not a complete disaster! Lol. Im pretty confident we can turn at least a little profit on this card.looks like the night games starting w wheeler have the more slam dunk type chances!
 
Far as night games I can throw out the strongest play so far,

Wheeler over 6.5 k’s… I woulda made this 7.5 if I was them. Wheels has punched 7+ in wveey start vs Braves last last 2 years minus opening day last year which doesn’t matter to me. I believe I counted 4 games in that stretch.

Greene ov 5.5 k’s all damn day every day!
 
What do you think of the under Cincy/Kc? Greene is a stud we know that. Cameron has been exceptional so far and Cincy ain’t exactly great vs lefties. Maybe regression time for Cameron?
 
What do you think of the under Cincy/Kc? Greene is a stud we know that. Cameron has been exceptional so far and Cincy ain’t exactly great vs lefties. Maybe regression time for Cameron?

I honestly don’t know much or anything bout Cameron, I’ll take a peak but think I’m totally happy just playing greene k’s there! I guess we getting a discount cause his 1st game back? Makes no sense to me, I expect he gets back to the dominant path he was on. Wasn’t a long IL stint so not worried bout him at all. Anytime they wanna give me a 5.5 k number with him that what I’m playing
 
Boom. Cash Bello under outs! Im
Still so confused why anyone would bet him up from 16.5 to 17.5 but I never know why this dumb money does what it does. These mfers should just send me their money and I’ll send them money returns cause the damn sure ain’t winning w plays like that!!
 
Man the A’s have really gotten into a funk, obviously I wasn’t playing McCullers k’s but this feels like about 5-6 straight the A’s have allowed opposing pitcher to cash his k prop
 
Played a couple 7 teamers for hell of it on underdog. Jobe cost me hitting the 1st 5 in one. And worst part I put Wilson with Jobe but Andujar h/r/rbi in other and right now he the only one not cashing. Long way to go but really need hit to get at least something his next at bat cause after that he will be seeing Stros pen not mccullars. That be a bummer if u miss them both by 1. Still mad at hinch for not pulling Jobe a hitter sooner!!
 
Notice that nitwit Rocco lets Lopez throw 95 pitches while getting his ass kicked but that prick pulled Ryan a k short at 85 pitches and cruising! He has done this for years, no matter how bad Lopez is he leaves him out there but Ryan or others have a great game going, getting stronger as game goes on yet he yanks them after 6 innings regardless pitch count. He a idiot
 
Damn. Andujar gonna ruin the other big parlay, I should have put wison in both, hindsight a bitch. Lol. Doubt he gets anything off Stros pen and Won’t get another shot at McCullers
 
Mahle un 2.5 earned runs. Jays offense is struggling, 11 starts and last time out was the 1st time all year mahle gave up more than 2.5!! Im not totally sure I’m buying this redic era he sporting but I don’t think jays are gonna be the team to blow it up.
 
Alcintera under 17.5 outs. Another baffling number, pads offense raking, Sandy has only went 6 innings 1x all year and now he gonna go 6 innings vs pads? I’ll pay to see it.
 
So rest card

Alcintera un 17.5 outs
Mahle un 2.5 earned runs
Greene ov 5.5 k’s

I think that it. Looking like we gonna turn pretty damn good profit on the early games. If I add anything I’ll post it. Gl
Everyone
 
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I know but it's still a discussion thread for anyone who might be looking lol

Fair enough I’m half asleep, didn’t sleep good last night. I just don’t do great capping Mikolas so I ignored it, if the weather on there I think cards bats prob worth a look
 
Man im so bummed had I just put Wilson in both those 7 teamers or had tigers pulled Jobe when they should have I’d have had a monster cash. Andujar not doing shit in the one all the others cashed and Jobe the only L in the other. Both paid so fat!
 
Starting to get the feeling I should have went with my initial idea of A’s Ff opposed to game, Stros pen still a strength and while A’s got some legit arms in that pen I have had some serious questions about how they manage the pen late in games. The most recent glaring fuck up was the giants series in that 0-0 extra inning game where A’s manager inexplicably had miller intentionally walk the bases loaded then in no shock to anyone other than that stupid ass manager miller walks home the winning run in the 10th! You have a kid who’s stuff is damn near unhittable but his one knock he lacks control and you intentionally walk Flores to make miller pitch with the bases loaded. I get it Flores had killed yhem but miller wasn’t giving up a hit, the minute the manager called for the intentional walk my instant reaction was “you dumb mfer why don’t you know the only way miller loses that game was walking home the winning run?!?!?!” I knew it was coming the minute he held up the intentional walk sign. The kid has control issues so you think the most prudent thing to do is put immense pressure on him to throw strikes? God that was Rocco-esk! A’s have won like 1 game since that retarded move! And now he gonna get our managed in the pen game to end this series and lose another game they should have won,
 
I’d consider firing whoever managing the A’s, they made me bunch of money early on as they were one my teams to take a jump, i think this manager cost them a few games that has turned this into a terrible month.
 
cmon A’s, give Andujar a chance to hit with guys on here in 8th. Pretty much all I can ask for, im not confident he comes thru but it be nice to have a chance a base hit scores a run and cashes his h/r/rbi. Honestly thought he have to get it off McCullers so id feel pretty lucky to cash, but considering the few losses last 2 days were pretty bad luck or 2 terrible manager desicions it be nice to get one back!
 
Anduja hits into double play, weak pussy. Fuck. So close to hitting one or both 6 teamers worth over 1k each. Mam missimc onss guy in each a kick in the nuts!! Bright side I did hit some 2-3-4 teamers just woulda been nice to cash one the big ones. Especially cause jive shoulda never pitched to Flores, then taken out after giving up
The bomb, little late hinch!! Last 2 days 2 shit manager desicions cost me 2 plays. Easiest job in sports and these clowns can’t get it right!
 
Pads gonna have to smack Alcontera around, they not running up his pitch count but his mo kinda been a awful inning,, still feel pretty good pads get to him and get him out before he goes 6.
 
Cmon pads, need to get to Alcontera for a run or 2 this inning and get his pitch count headed right way. So far he been way to efficient. This their chance, 2 on 1 out
 
Boom, crimnenworth comes thru with a 2 rbi double and now Sandy ginna have a hard time going 6. True to form after the big hit his confidence gets shook and now he can’t locate. Let’s just get him out of here now pads?
 
damn. Pads hung a big number but alcomtera still pitching. Guess we need them to knock him around to start 5th, that would ensure he doesn’t even get a chance in 6th
 
under 14.5 is +150 right now, hop on!

Nice play bro. I was in shower. I had a lot on the initial number anyways so all good. Bello and Sandy out totals were mind boggling today, but if I’ve learned anything is to trust my numbers despite what the hell they doing with the lines!! All a sudden you see me playing far more pitcher unders than the -st few years where I mostly played over or passed, adjustments were made tho. I don’t know my numbers but I know I been hitting the under out totals and the out totals in general back at those crazy high clips I was hitting years past!
 
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