reflections and Week 5 CFB prognostication

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
moneylines: 8-15, 34.8% +3.95 units

Miami OH +260 - L
Rice +2600 .5 unit - L
Rice +4100 .2 unit - L ....counting these as one loss
Louisiana Tech +1640 - L
Arkansas St +260 - L
Kent St +240 - W
Washington +145 - W
Mississippi St +373 - W
Hawaii +550 - L - but close enough for me to be pleased
Army +405 - W
Purdue +135 - W
New Mexico +310 - W
San Diego St +315 - L

Week 4: 6-7, 46% +9.08 units
overall: 14-22, 38.9% +13.03 units

Spreads/Totals: 44-27-3, 59% +23.32 units

Nevada -7 (+102) 2 units - W
Louisville -13.5 (+101) 2 units - W
Rice +27.5 (-105) 2 units - L
Rice +30.5 (-105) 2 units - L
West Virginia -20.5 (+104) 2 units - L
Army +10 (-102) - W
Western Michigan -27 (-105) 2 units - W
Temple +30 (+106) 2 units - L
Louisiana Tech +22 (+107) 2 units
USC -20.5 (+113) - L
Arizona +20.5 (+111) - W
Boston College -7 (-102) 2 units - L
Ole Miss -3 (+107) 2 units - L
Tulane/LSU UNDER 48 -105 - L
Hawaii/Boise St UNDER 63 +104 - L
Barf/Auburn UNDER 48.5 +104 - W
Colorado/UGA UNDER 36.5 -105 - W
Hawaii +15 (-108) 3 units - W
Texas Tech -45 (-115) 2 units - W
Auburn -24 (-108) 1h - L
WVU -13.5 (-108) 1h - L
LSU -21 (-108) 1h - W
WMU -16.5 (-105) 1h - W


Week 4: 10 - 12, 45.4% +.78
overall: 54 - 39 - 2, 56.8% +24.1 units

I'm pretty pleased overall. After a scare with the 49ers today, my teaser cashed. So on the week I'm up...well, a fucklot. That's a lot. Best week financially so far. That's the beauty of ML dogs. We need a lot of these to cash in order to have great weeks like this one, but for all my bitching about last week's, it was only mediocre, and I still made a couple units. Losing the teaser certainly didn't help my frame of mind....anyway, I'm going to focus more on ML dogs. Call me a garf wanna-be. I certainly want to be as successful at this as he is...

I like his brief ML writeups, and while I don't want to bother with every game, I do like his descriptions and I think I'll ponder quite a few... anyway, this week, these games are interesting to me.

Duke as a homedog...I think NCSU firmly stated the case yesterday that UVA is now hovering at Just Above Duke status in the ACC cellar. If UVA doesn't watch it, Duke's going to beat them and open the door to the ground floor. This UVA team is atrocious. Duke is too, but Duke can make plays from time to time. If I can get in excess of 2.5 to one, I'll love that. I actually like it at 2:1.

Houston, I may play like I played Louisiana Tech last week. From a numbers standpoint, I think they have a shot at +800, maybe a bit higher. But I like the spread play a helluva lot more. I'm not sure Miami should be laying that much til they prove they can score 30. Maybe it's ancient mistique, or maybe it's houston's holey defense, but I have trouble seeing many scenarios where Miami doesn't win tomorrow.

Wyoming, As long as Syracuse remains a TD fave against teams I think are as good (or better in this case), I'll bet the ML against them. Maybe I'm not giving cuse enough credit, but in the style of abcs...who have they beaten? I mean, congratulations on your big win against illinois. I really like Wyoming as a dog here...I expect this and duke will be one of those +260/-300 openers...we'll see.

Navy, again, as long as Navy is a dog against a team as good or not as good as them, well, I'll take the middies. We got a little lucky last week with Tulsa cashing against them (not a bad thing...). Navy should have put that PAT through. idiots.

BGSU, we can at least look at. It's hard to identify these two teams as much better or worse than the others. I prefer the home team with these, and I would prefer to bet on a team with a QB...But Bowling Green warrants an eyeball, I guess...at least against Ohio. I mean, if the line was reversed I'd be saying the same thing...

Purdue at Notre Dame at 594, I don't like so much. I want more, and I expect by gametime we'll have upwards of 800 at some point. But I DO see a scenario or 4 where Purdue manages a win. Notre Dame's defense is suspect just like MSU's, for sure. But I certainly dont think the domers are this good...to be laying this many points...not until they show they can stop someone other than Reggie Ball or a freshman QB from Penn St.

Boise St at Utah. For one thing, I think Boise St is the better team. Don't let Hawaii's production fool you. Yes, I do honestly believe Hawaii had a decent shot at winning straight up, but it's not as much a reflection on Boise St's defense as it is a reflection of Hawaii's powerful offense today. I think that kid Ian Johnson is something special, and as long as he's running like a maniac, Boise has a chance in every game. I'm going to have to look into more numbers here, AND with Boise's reputation away from home AND with Utah's huge slaughter of SDSU last week, I'd expect this line to go up by gametime. Perhaps even to a TD. At 250+, I'd have to seriously consider this play...in a shootout, I think BSU has more than a decent chance at a win, here.

Oregon St, Stanford, I don't fuckin think so. OSU, if it's a particularly healthy line, I might start thinking about it, but these two teams, especially Tree, are going to have to be more solid, especially on defense (HAHAHA) before I'll trust my money with em...MAYBE if Tree is a dog to UC Davis I might *think* about it...

San jose St. All day. I think they can outscore SDSU. Not sure why SDSU is favored here. I might lose, but I'm pretty damn sure I've got at least a 50% shot here. Obviously I'd like more, but right after a beatdown, I think the Aztecs aren't going to get many backers this week.

Ball St hosting NIU. Well, at -7, this might warrant an NIU spread play...so, very likely not a play.

Aggie is technically a dog right now, but I don't lay juice with ML dogs, so fuckit. No way does Aggie stay there or get more doggish with TT's road woes this year...

NMSU, as bad as this team is...I don't see how you could lay 18 with UTEP. Dear God what a bizarre matchup. This would be funny as all hell to watch.

Arky St at Florida Intl. The Indians hardly showed us a good performance last week, but Florida Intl honestly isn't any better. Yes, I know. Sun Belt. But these and the MAC are the games that are somewhat least predictable for books, and I think the usual +260/-300 applies here, and over 2.5:1 on almost any of these games yields some value. Basically, when shit goes against shit, go with the shit that pays you more. =)

Eastern Mich at ULL. Hey! Here's a team that EMU just might be good enough to beat....maybe. again...Here's another to look into.

Troy St at UAB. UAB just finds ways to lose against teams they should beat...Troy St hung with FsU for a while, and the noles should have beaten em down like they did Rice. A matching of bizarre plays can yield a Troy St beatdown *of* UAB. .......again, at the very least, it's worth a look. 350 would be nice. 325, and I'm there. over 400 forces a play...kinda like Army last week.

MTSU at North Texas. Worth a look. Probly a no play. Florida Atlantic. Might as well wipe my ass with the bens and flush em.

It's been a long weekend, but my friend Nate did in fact got married. If the fire-alarm goes off again tonight, I'm going to be seriously pissed. But I did make somewhere around 1/2 to 3/4 of a Vanzack unit this weekend, that's a lot for me, and I'm really really frickin happy right now...that sorta mitigates the fire alarm frustration...

hope you guys made some money this week. I'll post more tomorrow when we stop. I am not missing any more of this week's football, damnit.

:cheers:
 
redbearde, the only two I will contend with you on are Houston and Boise. I honestly believe you are throwing your money away with Houston -- whether it's ML or side. Houston has NO defense. That's going to make it a lot easier on Miami's offense to score. Miami HAS a defense. That's going to make it very difficult for Houston to score. Miami has had two weeks to prepare for Houston's offense. That's going to make it even HARDER for Houston to score. Houston hasn't played ANYBODY worth a shit. Miami has played two top 10 teams. Coker is fighting for his life and Houston stands in the way. There is ABSOLUTELY no reason to play Houston here. No reason.

I don't think Boise is a better team than Utah, and I think once you get Boise off the smurf turf, they are very vulnerable to decent teams.

Good luck with the rest of your plays.
beer.gif
 
regarding Houston, I don't give them much chance to win for those reasons. it'd be a value bet, and I want a lot more for it...you can figure I'm thinking they have perhaps a 15% chance....and I aint all that likely to play them.

regarding utah, well, perhaps I'm wrong. i'll have to look closer at a lot of these, and undoubtedly the actual numbers will take me off many.

:)
 
as a side note, my ML units are double my spread units. That's why I keep the numbers totally separate.

I got some of these earlier today, so some lines have gone up or down dramatically.

MLs: 14-22, 38.9% +13.03 units

UNLV +178
EMU +260
Arky St +310
SJSU +121
Duke +210
Wyo +222
Navy +118
BGSU +175

spreads and totals
overall: 54 - 39 - 2, 56.8% +24.1 units

Michigan St -24 (+104)
Miss St/LSU U39.5 (-105)
N. Illinois -7 (+103)
UGA/Ole Miss U35 (-105)
So Miss -5.5 (+104) 2 units
So Miss -5.5 (+100)
Auburn -14 (-107)
Auburn -14 (+101)
Duke +4.5 (+112) 3 units
Wyoming +4.5 (+112) 3 units
Navy +2.5 (-105) 3 units
Northwestern +17 (-104) 2 units. Don't ask. I lost my mind briefly.
Fresno St -13.5 (-103) 2 units
Florida -13.5 (+100) 2 units
Rutgers -5.5 (+122) 2 units


Double entries are my completing my thoughts from earlier. I bet some of this while driving. MY PHONE RAWKS, YO. And I completed some of these later. Hence the difference in the Auburn and So miss bets. Also, I should reiterate that I like to sell points in order to get better juice. This is one reason I have gone sub 50% over the last two weeks and still made a little money. I can think of the number of times this cost me a win on 1 hand (once last year), and it's saved me countless dollars on losses (many dozens).

I'm still considering some more ML dogs. If you notice, I don't go against many top teams with this. Though it's games like Iowa that can surprise you...and it's games like Purdue that make you a fucklot of money...

So, whatchyoo guys think?
 
What do you think about colorado ats and ML? They looked to be much better than their record shows.. not sure yet but possibly
 
Can't believe the Auburn line WENT DOWN before I could hit it......lol
Like your thoughts on Wyoming......
Like Flor & fresno..........got Smiss at the same 5.5

You can get Cal @ -9 right now..........

I've gotten into the habit of selling points as well. I don't like crossing the line but its saved me a lot of juice.
 
abcs...

Colorado ATS? No idea...but I'd probably lean towards Mizzou. Colorado ML? No thanks. You say that they look better than their record...but that was just in the Georgia game, and keep in mind that they let Georgia right back into that thing real late. That was more of a letdown game for Georgia than a "oh my god Colorado is back!" game, IMO.

Missouri, on the other hand, is a decent team...but not good enough to fall asleep at the wheel against Colorado. This game still means something to them. now, I will admit that I don't like taking high ML dogs..but I just don't really see how Colorado can win this game. I feel like the optimism coming from the Georgia game is false optimism...throw that game out and cap this game, and you'd bet your house on Missouri winning. Not saying it's fair to throw one game out...just saying, make sure you don't weight that one game too heavily...
 
abcs--thelegend said:
What do you think about colorado ats and ML? They looked to be much better than their record shows.. not sure yet but possibly
Click to expand...

Matdor likes that one, too. I don't. lemme dig up what I said to him...God, I'm lazy...and for that matter, what he said to me.

k, here's what he said in garf's covers thread:

"CU moved the ball well, and not just for 1 or 2 drives either. It was by far the best offensive performance of any team vs the Dawgs this year and a 1000% improvement over earlier games for the Buffs. Take it for what it's worth, but CU is almost a sure play for me, and one of the strongest on the board."

and macdamn's contribution:

Well I'm with Matador, I was very impressed with what Colorado did against Georgia. Their defense pretty much stymied Georgia all day, holding the Bulldogs to only 54 rushings yards on 27 attempts. How many teams are capable of doing that? I'm thinking after the disastrous start to the year that Hawkins now has things on the right track. If they play at that level again there's no reason they can't win outright at Missouri. So I had to put a unit on Colorado at +448.

my response:

Macdamn, I think you and Mat are really optimistic with this Buffs backing...While it's impressive to move up and down on UGA (i agree on that), stopping UGA's offense for 54 minutes isn't all THAT hard...and then they fucking gave it up like beavers in Boise...I wouldn't trust them at all in this game. Unless I see more, I'll see that performance as a fluke of both UGA's and Colorado's. Out of twenty games, I think Colorado beats UGA, maybe...MAYbe once. I just don't see how they can possibly stop Mizzou...which is a much tougher Offense.

I think Colorado came out and beat the everloving shit out of UGA for 54 minutes offensively AND defensively. If they had held onto the game even at 13-7, I would be all over them too. But a team that can't hold onto a win with a 13-0 lead over another bunch they've been dominating all game tells me there's a serious focus problem here. Maybe it's a coaching problem with changing the style in the middle of the 4th quarter to maintain the lead instead of pouring it on to win the game.

In any event, it's a bad sign for a team which was already holding up the "WE BLOW GOATS" sign as well as the "WHAT Is DEFENSE?" and "WE doNT NEED NO STINKIN POINTS" signs...

I honestly think this is an either ML dog or lay the points. I'll be laying the chalk eventually, but I'm hoping to get a line under 14 for good juice sometime in the next few days. Mizzou has a quality offense, and if Colorado doesn't show up with the same kind of intensity they had against UGA, they'll get slaughtered. UGA doesn't have the SCORE 40 offense. It has the "keep em under 4" defense. Mizzou doesn't have that defense, though I think it's better than, oh, I dunno, the Montana St or Arizona St defense, and *those* Colorado had at home. Colorado put up 13 at UGA, but that's a fluke in my mind until the buffs manage it again........and maintain it for the win.

if you do bet on the buffs, good health to you bro, but GL to me.

:smiley_acbe:
 
Purdue/Notre Dame over 63 (-105) 2 units

I'm not a fan of Cal on the road yet. I don't think I can lay those points, but I'm sure as hell not going against them on the ML.

I'm giving New Mexico and NMSU...but against UTEP, I may just play the points. I need to check some stats before I actually put money on those, and to even consider NMSU on the ML, I need another 200 bucks.
 
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so, I mention it, and of course selling points bites my ass tonight. hahahaha.

I'm actually not amused. With the opponent's kicker probs, I don't understand going for 2. get the 13pt lead...damnit.

and then, not even rushing the ball at the end? I hoped like hell they'd fumble a snap and cash the ML dog for you guys.

mental note, southern miss plays for pussy wins.
 
Mugg said:
You can get Cal @ -9 right now..........
Click to expand...

As weak as it was to only manage 1 quarter, for that quarter, the beavers ran all over Boise St. Perhaps Cal's run D is better than Boise St's...I would say BSU's got better, but I think the reality there is that the pussies I mean beavers just gave up when they got down a bit. At home, I think that's less likely. I sure as hell can't back the beavers, but I'm not sure I want to back another suspect [road] defense against them, either.

So that game's a no play for me, and good luck to you.
 
damnit it all to hell. Once that line comes back up, the value in Troy St will be far more than gone. what is it...9 UAB players suspended or something for that game?

As flakey as that shit team is, that mighta been my best play this week...

I may yet play MTSU in the mid 120s, but I'm waiting. I was absolutely wrong about the NAVY line moving down....heh. MAybe someone will like North Texas at home against a relatively stout sun-belt D...not sure I have a 50% shot with MTSU, but given the opponents and how they've done against them (oklahoma is a throwout - no one holds Okie and Peterson after that Oregon shit in week 3). Very often these shit ass sunbelt teams manage SEC scores because of REALLY BAD OFFENSES instead of dominating defenses, and you never know from week to week who will bother to win...it's fun taking a few shots...I had Temple +204 or so week 1 at Buffalo...heh heh heh. Barf won in OT...9-3.

Anyway, I can see this game going 14-10 or even 9-7 or 10-6.
Either side winning. Very hard to say which offense is worse, and I'm not so sure MTSU's defense is worse than NT's.

Anyway, I want more for it, so I'm waiting. Someone feel free to talk me off of it.
 
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FAU +520

now, perhaps this is merely speculative gold mining here, but LA Monroe is not this much better than FAU. Monroe had 1 good rushing game against Bama while getting their asses slaughtered. Was this during ass time, by any chance? Someone who watched the game fill me in...

Florida Atlantic of course has their problems, on both sides of the ball. So does Monroe. Against Alcorn St, Monroe fumbled 4 times and lost 2...and could only run 182 yards on 46 rushes for 3.9ypc. That's not good. They somehow did better against Bama...as I say, asstime? I expect this game to be ugly, stupid, and whoever makes fewer mistakes will win. I'll probably take the points, too, but I wanted to hit 520 while the hitting was good.

I really want to play Troy, but 224 is just not enough. 3:1 is worth it. 2.25:1 is not.
 
Washington +145

This is a balanced offense, and it may not be USC or Oregon, but I think it'll at LEAST compete with AZ's offense...who has only scored more than 3 against the powerhouse defenses of BYU (16 pts) and Stephen F Austin (28 pts)

This was one of my winners last week (beat UCLA), and I obviously prefer these teams at home, but I expect to have a good shot at the win here.

I watched the BYU-AZ game, and I was extremely underimpressed with the wildcat offense. That was supposed to be a high powered offensive game, and maybe it was a hearty defensive struggle, but what I saw was a couple of inept offenses.

Washington doesn't roll teams this year, but neither do they get rolled. Even at the Oklahoma blowout, the yardage differential was only 406-457. In each of the last 3 games, the huskies have at least 1 pick, and it was a big pick 6 last week. They outgained SJSU 462-375, and Fresno St actually outgained the huskies 308-288. Against UCLA, the huskies had trouble running, but the passing game and defense came through. Against SDSU, the huskies just ran all day long for almost 300 yards rushing and 7.2ypc.

This is a generally well-balanced offense, and if Ty can't get them to move the ball one way, then he'll find the other. Not sure the coaching advantage is with me here, but if it's a disadvantage it won't be much. Ty's solid.

Anyway, with Arizona's trouble scoring against, well, anyone in Div 1A I think Washington can At LEAST hang with this Arizona team. Alright, honestly, I think Washington is the better team, here, and I'm not clear on why, for the second week in a row, Washington is paying off the same 1.5:1. Anyway, I'm happy with this one.

GL guys.
 
I may just be a little confused on your MSU/Purdue writeup but Michigan St plays Illinois while Notre Dame has Purdue at home.
I am guessing you like Purdue/ND over 63?
 
yeah, that's what I get for posting on no sleep. Jeez.

yeah, purdue and ND. Wow. I shall go and work my foot out of my mouth now. And I'm going to erase that. Wow. I was REALLY fucked up this morning.

Days Inn with the roaches really frazzled me, I guess.
 
Akron @ Kent St.

Kent managed a big win last week. Akron kinda faltered a tad after beating NCSU. However, Akron is a much better team here. This line looks a bit low to me. I'm thinking -TD or a tad more would be more appropriate. I look for Akron to dominate Kent on the lines. 31-13 for a final, perhaps.


Akron -3 (+103)

Akron is playing Kent, right?
 
Kmacc said:
I may just be a little confused on your MSU/Purdue writeup but Michigan St plays Illinois while Notre Dame has Purdue at home.
I am guessing you like Purdue/ND over 63?
Click to expand...

God dude...I even had this wrong in my spreadsheet. It would have obvisouly been cleared up by Saturday...hahahahaha...but daaaamn.

But Yes. I do like and have Purdue/ND over 63 (-105).
 
Toledo +16 (+100) 2 units

Let's talk about Toledo some. I only like to play Toledo as a dog because if there's shennanigans in a football game other than Oregon/Oklahoma, IT'S In THE TOLEDO GAME.

Now, I hate Wanny as much as any of you. But this year he's actually held on to win a few AND EVEN COVER....on the road. Does Toledo have it em to bust up pitt on the lines? I think the battle for Toledo will be in the defensive trench for them, and I don't hold out much hope for the rockets. Wanny might well allow a backdoor cover (it's his upthemiddle3x second-half style), but before that, Pitt should run all over the rockets. Toledo hasn't stopped anyone from rushing except Mcneese St (and who cares bout that performance?) If toledo can turn this into a shootout, then the passing attack might overcome Pitt's rushing through toledo's defense, but even at the Kansas win, Toledo had about half the yardage Kansas did. Attribute that to the jayhawks' fumble and 4 picks. God, kansas is a turnover MACHINE.

My point is that toledo's defense will have trouble stopping Pitt. Wanny will be his own worst enemy. Seems to me a spread play might be warranted (especially with Toledo's late-game come-back antics, but a SU win strikes me as prohibitively unlikely. Even at 700, I'm not sure that's value.

Anyway, no ML play here, but I'll take the points.
 
looks like another solid card, Red.
first...don't let Sooner talk you off of Boise. i watched ucla kick the shit outta utah, and boise will score. taht said...if utah can keep up with what boise will do...the over looks pretty sweet.

with you on navy, fresno, purdue/nd over, and akron. but damn...jsut may have to tail on toledo. been mulling that one all week. if it hits 17, i'm in for sure.

anyways, BOL this weekend, bro.
 
Yanks, the key nice number for me on Toledo was over 14. I considered selling down to 14.5, but if the backdoor comes through, 14 or 16....i kinda doubt that matters.

JUST MY OPINION.

=)

thanks for the words on Boise. Problem is at this point there's no value left in the ML, and I must assume there's none left in the spread, either. If you got em at 6 or 6.5, good for you, but down to 3.5 or 4...I'm less likely to take that.
 
Good Luck , redbearde.
I hope you have a banner week because if you do, I will be a winner.:drink: :drink: :drink:
 
Is that kool-aid you're drinking there, bull? Heh. So far, I'm sucking ass this week. Hope the weekend gets better and we both cash a lot.

I am adding Hawaii -28 (-118) It's actually a series of bets maxing out what I thought I could [ir]rationally put on one game. Comes out to about 8 units before i got tired of pinny juicing me. Eastern Illi is on the island. If this was on the mainland, I'd still make this bet. I don't mind it being at Hawaii with the 7-10pt home field advantage...

I also have Texas -49 (-105) 3 units.

It's odd the things pinny will do. I had to do a series of wagers at pinny because their total on one wager was 700 or something. As I bet, the juice got more and more stupid. I think it was me moving that...

When I bet Texas, the line hopped a point every time I tried to do ANYTHING. After the second wager, it was at -50.5. Methinks someone else as hitting it too. hahaha. Now it's up to 51.5, and I still couldn't tell someone not to take it. I mean, I think North Texas could put a beatdown on SHSU...
 
yeah...that happened to me too. for some fucked up reason, using the word "none" ends up being a violin.

is cochran playing? i want toledo, but i can't find info on his questionable status. thx, red.
 
nothing on donbest about him...undisclosed...

this is the most recent article I could find:

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbc...27/SPORTS11/609270449&SearchID=73258362808960

Remember when Gradkowski was out for the Fresno St game last year (i think it was last year), no one heard a damn thing but the line skyrocketed 7 points to Fresno St -14 or more? I don't think this line has done that...even if Cochran doesn't start, it doesn't change my hope for the backdoor cover. Summers is capable...

okay, according to covers, it opened at 11.5 at Cris, and it's 16 now.

You'll have to come to your own conclusion about likelihoods...but I like the wager. GL.
 
Redbearde, I like your picks. Good luck this weekend. What do you think about Troy St. +6 now? I know the line shifted because of the injured players. Is this still a good value?
 
Terpman, my opinion is no. Just my opinion...I WISH LIKE HELL there was value in Troy because I think they have a pretty good shot to win this game. But as of rightnow it's a no play for me. I want more than a TD, even with the injuries, and I want more than 196 for this play. UAB is still a level above Troy...or should be. The dragons are so flakey that without those 9 players they might blow out a Troy St team that hung tough with FSU...

those UAB fuckers seem to love to do the unexpected...
 
GL Redbearde, on the MLs... Looks like we're butting heads on a few of the sides, Wisky and Toledo being notable, so GL with the ones we're in agreement or I'm neutral on!
 
well, I think I'm more likely to get wisky than toledo, but I want us both to have good weekends. I think we have more in common than against. So good luck bro.

:)
 
happy birthday to me...happy birthday to me...happy BIRTHday to meeeeeee.

let's win some fuckin games...
 
wasn't interested in fading either army or vpi.

if you can't tell, I'm having a profoundly bad day. managed to go all JoeBren 30%ish with my spread picks. Hawaii & Texas could conceivably save the spread day...

MLs, well, there are too many pending to know. Duke deciding not to play today didn't help...

at least the run of birthdays being really sucky hasn't changed for this year...
 
as bad as my spread plays were, the blessing of BAR and god play by a bunch of dogs yielded a ML record of 6-4 +9.9units.

this means positive money.

as long as hawaii covers -28, it's a decent week...the warriors can cover my spread/total debacle to where I'm only down 2 about units on that.
actually, I'm not sure about the posted plays...they don't perfectly match all my plays.

I'm at Atlantic beach now at my father in law's timeshare. no internet connection.

that's so ass.

fortunately, there are several folks here other than me that can watch my kid while I go pirate some wifi spot out there...hotels are often very accomodating (har har har)...

I'll actually post sometime tomorrow.

I hope you guys made some money this week.
 
MLs: 14-22, 38.9% +13.03 units

UNLV +178 - L
EMU +260 - L
Arky St +310 - W
SJSU +121 - W
Duke +210 - L
Wyo +222 - L
Navy +118 - W
BGSU +175 - W
FAU +520 - W
Wash +145 - W

Week 5: 6-4. 60% +9.9 units.
Overall: 20-26. 43.5% +22.93 units.

:smiley_acbe:

I even had a decent shot for Wyoming to win, too. GT, Rice, Illinois, BYU, Kent St, MTSU, and Colorado St all cashed the ML too. The one I really feel like i missed was MTSU, cus I gave that some serious consideration...



spreads and totals
overall: 54 - 39 - 2, 56.8% +24.1 units

Michigan St -24 (+104) - L
Miss St/LSU U39.5 (-105) - L
N. Illinois -7 (+103) - W
UGA/Ole Miss U35 (-105) - W
So Miss -5.5 (+104) 2 units - L
Auburn -14 (-107) - L
Auburn -14 (+101) - L
Duke +4.5 (+112) 3 units - L
Wyoming +4.5 (+112) 3 units - L
Navy +2.5 (-105) 3 units - W
Northwestern +17 (-104) 2 units - L
Fresno St -13.5 (-103) 2 units - L
Florida -13.5 (+100) 2 units - W
Rutgers -5.5 (+122) 2 units -L
Purdue/Notre Dame over 63 (-105) 2 units - L
Wisconsin -12 (+106) - W
Akron -3 (+103) - L
Hawaii -28 (-118) 8 units - W
Texas -49 (-105) 3 units - W

Okay, I deleted one unit on my southern miss plays. I thought I had 3, but i had 2 on it. Lucky me since I lost it.

Anyway, this went as horribly as it ever has. 7 - 11. -2.27 units. Funny, my spreadsheet has 8-12. Whatever - the money's about right. It sucked ass.

Michigan St blowing it busted my teaser, but even so...because I kicked so much ass with the ML dogs (40% is great...60% is IN SANE) and Hawaii won, it's still a positive weekend.

So I shall count my blessings and focus more on the ML dogs.
 
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