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Denver -9/45.5
Ravens @ Donks Discussion...
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detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Really hard right now not to see how clearly Den and NE are the complete class of this conference. One thinks if Luck wasnt a rookie, the Colts could have won today. They ran the ball effectively, moved the ball well, just melted down once they got in close. Ravens corners stink, Ray and Ed are a step slow and Peyton bitched them in Balty a few weeks back. This could get very ugly.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
NE/Den will probably be one of the most popular teaser plays of the decade. Truth is Hou and Balt are both veteran teams who are capable and will not be rattled. The familiarity of these teams playing each other recently will also help the underdogs IMO. Den is favored for a reason, but could certainly see a close game with Balt riding the emotional Ray Ray wave and (hopefully) giving the ball to Rice.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Flacco continues to have difficulty with pocket presence and hot reads. Sometimes he looks completely oblivious to the pass rush and where it is coming from. Ravens struggle mightily in short to mid range passing game. I think there only chance will be to get constant pressure on Manning with frequent blitzing. If Denver can give him anytime at all think the Ravens are in big trouble. They should try and stick with Rice as much as they can and run clock and keep Manning off the field.
Check_raise
Pretty much a regular
What is Ray Ray's record against Peyton?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
i like the obvious this week, that denver and new england win their games against inferior competition
to play devil's advocate, i really don't think peyton is a cold weather, grass field qb at all. he was always great in the dome as a colt, but the games on grass, even in good weather, changed him up a bit...
now he's got a full season as a qb playing on the grass at home, so maybe he can carve up a tired, old defense, but the january temps certainly COULD come into play. i always enjoyed betting against his colts teams when they went on the road and played on grass because it seemed to disrupt the timing between he and his receivers. honestly don't know if this version of the ravens defense can exploit it at all, but this was never his comfort zone
possible under bet, especially with the week off, if they don't get out of the gate quickly. i don't expect the ravens to put up huge numbers offensively in this environment, and i DO think denver is the much better team. but i will have a hard time laying much with them
to play devil's advocate, i really don't think peyton is a cold weather, grass field qb at all. he was always great in the dome as a colt, but the games on grass, even in good weather, changed him up a bit...
now he's got a full season as a qb playing on the grass at home, so maybe he can carve up a tired, old defense, but the january temps certainly COULD come into play. i always enjoyed betting against his colts teams when they went on the road and played on grass because it seemed to disrupt the timing between he and his receivers. honestly don't know if this version of the ravens defense can exploit it at all, but this was never his comfort zone
possible under bet, especially with the week off, if they don't get out of the gate quickly. i don't expect the ravens to put up huge numbers offensively in this environment, and i DO think denver is the much better team. but i will have a hard time laying much with them
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Saturday's 4:30PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Denver
The Broncos are 13-3 all time in home playoff games. But how big of an effect does Denver's thin air have on opponents, really? "When I played there," ex-Eagles safety Brian Dawkins recalled this week, "... our trainer tried to tell us, 'It's a mind thing. The altitude is a mind thing. Don't think about it.' But when I got out there and we started playing and we got behind -- and that's the key -- it's not a mind thing. It's a lung thing. The lungs don't get enough oxygen." Combine home-field advantage with Peyton Manning's hurry-up offense, and there's reason to believe this game could get out of hand quickly if the Ravens play anything like they did against the Broncos in Week 15. Baltimore was at home for that one, yet still allowed Denver to grab a 17-0 first-half lead en route to a dominant 34-17 victory. ... Manning is masterful at identifying advantageous matchups, and he attacked Ravens RCB Cary Williams relentlessly in the aforementioned meeting. Z receiver Eric Decker was the beneficiary, securing eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. On the score, Decker blew by Williams' jam as Manning play-actioned to Knowshon Moreno and found Decker open deep behind Williams from 51 yards out. ... Demaryius Thomas was quiet in the Week 15 matchup (four catches, 13 yards), but he's Manning's hottest receiver with a team-high 16 grabs for 224 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's last two games. In the Ravens' nickel package, special teamer Chykie Brown plays left corner with Corey Graham covering the slot, in the old Lardarius Webb role. Brown is playing extensively only due to injuries and is just as vulnerable as Williams in coverage. Both Denver wideouts can have big Divisional Round games.
Since starting running back Willis McGahee tore his MCL in November, Moreno has admirably stepped into the Joseph Addai role in Manning's offense. An underwhelming talent -- much like Addai -- Moreno has cleared 4.0 yards per carry in just one of his last five starts. But he's an asset in pass protection and has displayed reliable workhorse capability by handling 25 touches per game without a fumble since the McGahee injury. Although Moreno is unlikely to break off big plays in the run game, he is a chain-moving grinder willing to work for hard yards between the tackles. Moreno was the unsung hero of Denver's Week 15 win over Baltimore, heating up the Ravens for 115 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts (5.48 YPC). ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are role players in the Manning attack; essentially checkdown receivers for whom plays are rarely designed. Sure-handed Stokley finished the regular season with just two drops on 58 targets. Tamme is a "move" tight end who often aligns in the slot. Dreessen is Denver's in-line tight end. He's an impact run blocker and caught five touchdown passes in 2012, four of which came inside the opponent's ten-yard line.
Perhaps the biggest key to Denver's Week 15 dominance of Baltimore was slot corner Chris Harris' elimination of slot receiver Anquan Boldin. In addition to returning a 98-yard pick six, Harris held Boldin catch-less on six targets, frustrating the veteran to the point that Boldin was penalized for unnecessary roughness in the second half. It was Boldin’s first game without a reception since '05. Look for the Broncos to employ the same strategy this weekend. ... While Harris tracked Boldin on virtually every Week 15 passing down, Denver used Champ Bailey to shadow deep threat Torrey Smith. Before exiting with a third-quarter concussion, Smith managed one catch for 14 yards on three targets. Bailey has been a legit shutdown corner this season, and the Broncos' first-round bye should freshen the 34-year-old's legs for Saturday's game. ... Will Joe Flacco have open receivers in the Divisional Round? The odds appear to be against it. Flacco tends to hold onto the ball too long, make poor decisions, and simply not move the offense when Smith and Boldin don't get separation. Indecisive quarterbacking would be bad news for Baltimore against a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks and has a pass rusher in Von Miller who is capable of single-handedly ruining an offense. This is a very difficult matchup for the Ravens' pass game.
During the regular season, the Broncos allowed the most touchdowns and seventh most receiving yards in the league to tight ends. If Denver's second-ranked defense has one soft spot, it's coverage over the middle and down the seam. Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta capitalized for seven catches, 125 yards, and two touchdowns in the Week 15 game, securing the first score on a deep seam route and the second with a trio of broken tackles after a quick curl, taking Flacco's short pass 61 yards to the house. Beyond Ray Rice, Pitta is the likeliest Ravens skill-position player to give Denver trouble. ... In large part because Baltimore fell behind so fast, Rice was bottled up and underutilized en route to 41 yards on 15 touches (2.73 average) in the Week 15 Ravens-Broncos game. Playcaller Jim Caldwell has been committed to featuring Rice in Baltimore's two meaningful games since, and he's responded with 275 total yards and a touchdown against the Giants and Colts. As is always the case for running backs, critical to keeping Rice involved is a competitive effort both on the field and scoreboard. The Ravens can't afford to let Denver grab a commanding first-half lead. ... It seems like a long shot, but if Baltimore is the early aggressor in this game, No. 2 back Bernard Pierce has flashed ability to be an X-factor and impact player. Pierce has 387 yards on his last 61 carries (6.34 YPC), and he hasn’t fumbled once on 128 rookie-year touches.
Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 23
Baltimore @ Denver
The Broncos are 13-3 all time in home playoff games. But how big of an effect does Denver's thin air have on opponents, really? "When I played there," ex-Eagles safety Brian Dawkins recalled this week, "... our trainer tried to tell us, 'It's a mind thing. The altitude is a mind thing. Don't think about it.' But when I got out there and we started playing and we got behind -- and that's the key -- it's not a mind thing. It's a lung thing. The lungs don't get enough oxygen." Combine home-field advantage with Peyton Manning's hurry-up offense, and there's reason to believe this game could get out of hand quickly if the Ravens play anything like they did against the Broncos in Week 15. Baltimore was at home for that one, yet still allowed Denver to grab a 17-0 first-half lead en route to a dominant 34-17 victory. ... Manning is masterful at identifying advantageous matchups, and he attacked Ravens RCB Cary Williams relentlessly in the aforementioned meeting. Z receiver Eric Decker was the beneficiary, securing eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. On the score, Decker blew by Williams' jam as Manning play-actioned to Knowshon Moreno and found Decker open deep behind Williams from 51 yards out. ... Demaryius Thomas was quiet in the Week 15 matchup (four catches, 13 yards), but he's Manning's hottest receiver with a team-high 16 grabs for 224 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's last two games. In the Ravens' nickel package, special teamer Chykie Brown plays left corner with Corey Graham covering the slot, in the old Lardarius Webb role. Brown is playing extensively only due to injuries and is just as vulnerable as Williams in coverage. Both Denver wideouts can have big Divisional Round games.
Since starting running back Willis McGahee tore his MCL in November, Moreno has admirably stepped into the Joseph Addai role in Manning's offense. An underwhelming talent -- much like Addai -- Moreno has cleared 4.0 yards per carry in just one of his last five starts. But he's an asset in pass protection and has displayed reliable workhorse capability by handling 25 touches per game without a fumble since the McGahee injury. Although Moreno is unlikely to break off big plays in the run game, he is a chain-moving grinder willing to work for hard yards between the tackles. Moreno was the unsung hero of Denver's Week 15 win over Baltimore, heating up the Ravens for 115 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts (5.48 YPC). ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are role players in the Manning attack; essentially checkdown receivers for whom plays are rarely designed. Sure-handed Stokley finished the regular season with just two drops on 58 targets. Tamme is a "move" tight end who often aligns in the slot. Dreessen is Denver's in-line tight end. He's an impact run blocker and caught five touchdown passes in 2012, four of which came inside the opponent's ten-yard line.
Perhaps the biggest key to Denver's Week 15 dominance of Baltimore was slot corner Chris Harris' elimination of slot receiver Anquan Boldin. In addition to returning a 98-yard pick six, Harris held Boldin catch-less on six targets, frustrating the veteran to the point that Boldin was penalized for unnecessary roughness in the second half. It was Boldin’s first game without a reception since '05. Look for the Broncos to employ the same strategy this weekend. ... While Harris tracked Boldin on virtually every Week 15 passing down, Denver used Champ Bailey to shadow deep threat Torrey Smith. Before exiting with a third-quarter concussion, Smith managed one catch for 14 yards on three targets. Bailey has been a legit shutdown corner this season, and the Broncos' first-round bye should freshen the 34-year-old's legs for Saturday's game. ... Will Joe Flacco have open receivers in the Divisional Round? The odds appear to be against it. Flacco tends to hold onto the ball too long, make poor decisions, and simply not move the offense when Smith and Boldin don't get separation. Indecisive quarterbacking would be bad news for Baltimore against a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks and has a pass rusher in Von Miller who is capable of single-handedly ruining an offense. This is a very difficult matchup for the Ravens' pass game.
During the regular season, the Broncos allowed the most touchdowns and seventh most receiving yards in the league to tight ends. If Denver's second-ranked defense has one soft spot, it's coverage over the middle and down the seam. Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta capitalized for seven catches, 125 yards, and two touchdowns in the Week 15 game, securing the first score on a deep seam route and the second with a trio of broken tackles after a quick curl, taking Flacco's short pass 61 yards to the house. Beyond Ray Rice, Pitta is the likeliest Ravens skill-position player to give Denver trouble. ... In large part because Baltimore fell behind so fast, Rice was bottled up and underutilized en route to 41 yards on 15 touches (2.73 average) in the Week 15 Ravens-Broncos game. Playcaller Jim Caldwell has been committed to featuring Rice in Baltimore's two meaningful games since, and he's responded with 275 total yards and a touchdown against the Giants and Colts. As is always the case for running backs, critical to keeping Rice involved is a competitive effort both on the field and scoreboard. The Ravens can't afford to let Denver grab a commanding first-half lead. ... It seems like a long shot, but if Baltimore is the early aggressor in this game, No. 2 back Bernard Pierce has flashed ability to be an X-factor and impact player. Pierce has 387 yards on his last 61 carries (6.34 YPC), and he hasn’t fumbled once on 128 rookie-year touches.
Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 23
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
man i am naive
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
nah you are just a good dude:shake:
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Weather is going to be nasty tomorrow. Temps have dropped from mid 40's two days ago low 20's today. Tomorrow is supposed to be in the teens/low 20's with possible snow. Manning has been lights out this year but he hasn't played in bad weather yet. I think it was Silky that pointed out in Dec/Jan numbers outdoors quite some time ago and they aren't great. Granted this team can run the ball and play defense but so can the Ravens. I think this game is closer than the first time these two met. Paul Kruger playing out of his mind right now, emotional leader back, and I don't think the Ravens stray too far from the Ray Rice train tomorrow.
Broncos SHOULD win but I just have a funny feeling about this one.
Broncos SHOULD win but I just have a funny feeling about this one.
CAPital
Pretty much a regular
Yeah a road game and several times in Foxboro in January against those great Pats teams no less
Took over 43.5. Denver no huddle in the thin air against that tired ravens d on a short week + Baltimore putting up a few scores themselves/the drop trying to scare you about the weather except cold weather with no other conditions doesn't impact a football game that much.
W
wadegarrett
Guest
was thinking this also raems, esp since its dropped almost 3 pts..
ravens D been nothing special all yr long
ravens D been nothing special all yr long
Means a little else considering the ball travels farther in Denver to begin with
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
You hear it all the time. When the weather gets cold, NFL teams have to be able to win low-scoring games with a good running attack and a defense that can make key stops.
With below-freezing temperatures expected Saturday in Denver, talking heads and NFL “experts” have already begun analyzing how the chilly weather will affect scoring and whether that gives an advantage to either team.
With this in mind, we turned to our Bet Labs software to see if the commonly accepted belief that cold weather causes lower scoring games is one we could use to find an edge.
To do the NFL over under betting cold weather analysis, we created a basic NFL system that included both regular season and postseason games.
We next added Bet Labs’ Temperature Filter to isolate only NFL games where the game-time temperature was 32 degrees or below.
Finally, we applied the Bet Type Filter to show us the record of all Over wagers on these games.
The table below displays the results for betting the Over in every NFL game with a game-time temperature of 32 degrees or below since the start of the 2005 season.
Season Type Record Win % Units Won ROI
Regular 58-40 59.2% +15.75 +16.1%
Postseason 9-6 60.0% +2.54 +16.9%
Overall 67-46 59.3% +18.29 +16.2%
As you can see, when the weather gets cold, betting on NFL Overs heats up. Even more impressive is how similar the winning percentages are when comparing the regular season to the postseason, strengthening the reliability of the results.
What are your opinions regarding the effect of cold weather on NFL betting? Does temperature affect your personal betting systems? We invite you to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
With below-freezing temperatures expected Saturday in Denver, talking heads and NFL “experts” have already begun analyzing how the chilly weather will affect scoring and whether that gives an advantage to either team.
With this in mind, we turned to our Bet Labs software to see if the commonly accepted belief that cold weather causes lower scoring games is one we could use to find an edge.
To do the NFL over under betting cold weather analysis, we created a basic NFL system that included both regular season and postseason games.
We next added Bet Labs’ Temperature Filter to isolate only NFL games where the game-time temperature was 32 degrees or below.
Finally, we applied the Bet Type Filter to show us the record of all Over wagers on these games.
The table below displays the results for betting the Over in every NFL game with a game-time temperature of 32 degrees or below since the start of the 2005 season.
Season Type Record Win % Units Won ROI
Regular 58-40 59.2% +15.75 +16.1%
Postseason 9-6 60.0% +2.54 +16.9%
Overall 67-46 59.3% +18.29 +16.2%
As you can see, when the weather gets cold, betting on NFL Overs heats up. Even more impressive is how similar the winning percentages are when comparing the regular season to the postseason, strengthening the reliability of the results.
What are your opinions regarding the effect of cold weather on NFL betting? Does temperature affect your personal betting systems? We invite you to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
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