Ramble's Week 3 CFB

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Week 1: 1-1 (.1 units)
Week 2: 3-0 +3 units
Overall: 4-1 +2.9 units

Perfect week last week. Heartbreaking loss for my Rebs but the game was a great one to watch. Rebs and Miami O definitely the right sides, Rice could have gone either way, so I consider that a lucky win.

I'm going to put carolinablue's predicted lines in post #2 and start separating the games I would like at those numbers. I'll put my leans/plays here in the first post. Everything is flat bet for a unit.

Clemson -17
After Clemson's surprise beatdown by Alabama, I think they get up for this game and roll NC State. Clemson dominated 42-20 last year and NC State is beat the hell up right now. They allowed William and Mary to score 24 points against them and were actually outrushed in that game as well, as well as both Beck and Evans being picked off. Maybe Clemson's 252 rushing yards against Citadel will carry over into this game. Clemson hasn't covered in 4 games and has a cakewalk against South Carolina St at home next week: it's a great spot for them to take out some frustration.

LSU -41
Just saw that the game is ON this weekend and I'm excited. North Texas is god awful on the road, especially against good teams. Just look below at their schedule and results for the last 3 years. LSU's game last week was canceled and the players want to play this game hard to prove that the hurricane's can't get them down (I'm not making this up). It is very important to the team to play this game. I think they come out absolutely fired up and steam roll NT. This may be my first 2 unit play.

South Florida -3
First instinct was Kansas here. For some reason I think I was wrong, so I'm betting this side, lol.

Leans:
Michigan
Cal
Fresno St
Western Kentucky


BOL this week. :shake: :popcorn:
 
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Rutgers -4.5 vs UNC
USF +1.5 vs Kansas
Duke PK vs Navy
Vandy -8.5 vs Rice
Auburn -14.5 vs Miss State
Akron +3 vs Ball State
EMU PK vs Toledo
Mizzou -23.5 vs Nevada
Tex Tech -28.5 vs SMU
Nebraska -22 vs NMSU
BYU -8.5 vs UCLA
Purdue +8.5 vs Oregon
Texas -24.5 vs Arkansas
S. Car +8.5 vs Georgia
Houston -1 vs AFA
Ore State -8.5 vs Hawaii
Fresno +4.5 vs Wisky
Cuse +28 vs PSU
ND -1.5 vs Mich
Iowa -10.5 vs ISU
VT -3.5 vs GT
Clemson -16.5 vs NCSU
Idaho +6 vs WMU
Ohio -3.5 vs CMU
Maryland +17.5 vs Cal
Baylor -1 vs WSU
TCU -10.5 vs Stanford
Buffalo -6.5 vs Temple
Tenn -24.5 vs UAB
ECU -15.5 vs Tulane
Marsh -3 vs Memphis
UConn -10.5 vs UVA
Wash +26 vs Okla
USC -7.5 vs Ohio St
NM +14.5 vs Zona
Boise -9.5 vs BGSU
USU +22 vs Utah
SJSU -3 vs SDSU
ASU -21.5 vs UNLV
MSU -15.5 vs FAU
Alabama -28.5 vs WKU
Arkie St +3 vs USM
Kentucky -8.5 vs MTSU
Illinois -18.5 vs ULL
LSU -35.5 vs NT
 
Looking at these #'s...initial leans to Auburn, GA, PSU, Michigan, Iowa, GT, Cal, USC BIG! and LSU
 
I'm going to go ahead and put North Texas's schedule for the last 3 years here, so we can all really appreciate how bad these guys are on the road, especially against good teams:

2007-2008

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap">Sat, Sep 01 </td> <td class="odd"> Oklahoma </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Norman, OK </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 10 - 79 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 08 </td> <td class="even"> SMU </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Dallas, TX </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 31 - 45 (L)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="even" align="center"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 22 </td> <td class="odd"> Florida Atlantic * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, TX </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 20 - 30 (L)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 29 </td> <td class="even"> Arkansas </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Fayetteville, AR </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 7 - 66 (L)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 06 </td> <td class="odd"> Louisiana-Lafayette * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Lafayette, LA </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 29 - 38 (L)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 13 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana-Monroe * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, TX </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 31 - 21 (W)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 20 </td> <td class="odd"> Troy * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Troy, AL </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 7 - 45 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 27 </td> <td class="even"> Middle Tennessee * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, TX </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 28 - 48 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 10 </td> <td class="odd"> Navy </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, TX </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 62 - 74 (L)
STATS NOTES </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu, Nov 15 </td> <td class="even"> Arkansas State * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Jonesboro, AR </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 27 - 31 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 24 </td> <td class="odd"> Western Kentucky </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, TX </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 27 - 26 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Dec 01 </td> <td class="even"> Florida International * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Miami, FL </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 19 - 38 (L)
STATS</td></tr></tbody></table>
2006-2007

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap">Sat, Sep 02 </td> <td class="odd"> Texas </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Austin, Texas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 7 - 56 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 09 </td> <td class="even"> SMU </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 24 - 6 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 16 </td> <td class="odd"> Tulsa </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Tulsa, Oklahoma </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 3 - 28 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 23 </td> <td class="even"> Akron </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Akron, Ohio </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 13 - 33 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 30 </td> <td class="odd"> Middle Tennessee * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 0 - 35 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 07 </td> <td class="even"> Florida International * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 25 - 22 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 21 </td> <td class="odd"> Arkansas State * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Jonesboro, Arkansas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 10 - 29 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 28 </td> <td class="even"> Troy * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Troy, Alabama </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 6 - 14 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 04 </td> <td class="odd"> Louisiana Tech </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 31 - 34 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 11 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana-Lafayette * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Lafayette, Louisiana </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 16 - 7 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 18 </td> <td class="odd"> Florida Atlantic * </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 16 - 17 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 25 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana-Monroe * </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Monroe, Louisiana </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 3 - 23 (L)
STATS
</td></tr></tbody></table>
2005-2006

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap">Sat, Sep 10 </td> <td class="odd"> Middle Tennessee </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Murfreesboro, Tennessee </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 14 - 7 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 17 </td> <td class="even"> Tulsa </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 2 - 54 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Sep 24 </td> <td class="odd"> Kansas State </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Manhattan, Kansas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 7 - 54 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Tue, Oct 04 </td> <td class="even"> Troy </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 10 - 13 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 15 </td> <td class="odd"> Florida International </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Miami, Florida </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 13 - 10 (W)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 22 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana Tech </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> at Ruston, Louisiana </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 14 - 40 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Oct 29 </td> <td class="odd"> LSU </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Baton Rouge, Louisiana </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 3 - 56 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 05 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana-Lafayette </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 28 - 31 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 12 </td> <td class="odd"> Florida Atlantic </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> at Boca Raton, Florida </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 23 - 26 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="odd" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="even" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 19 </td> <td class="even"> Louisiana-Monroe </td> <td class="even" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="even" align="center"> 19 - 24 (L)
STATS </td> <td class="even" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="odd" scope="row" nowrap="nowrap"> Sat, Nov 26 </td> <td class="odd"> Arkansas State </td> <td class="odd" style="padding: 3px;"> Denton, Texas </td> <td class="odd" align="center"> 24 - 31 (L)
STATS</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
07/08: 0-7 on the road, average loss 30 points
06/07: 1-6 on the road, average loss 23.5 points
05/06: 2-4 on the road, average loss 32.5 points

Look at the "good" teams they play on the road, and the average loss is around 40 points. Just by this, anything around 32-35 for LSU is simply going to be a gift. I think this opens over 40, it just can't be close to 30 or its going to get hammered. Combine this with the fact that LSU has had a week off and this is a night game in Death Valley, this might get FUGLY very quickly. OVER is certainly the play here.
 
As for the OVER play, this little snippet seals the deal for me:

Even on those occasions when the offense was putting up big numbers, the defense failed the team. Nobody in the nation gave up more points per game than UNT. Of course when the offense scores so quickly, the defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field, but that was not really the problem. North Texas could not stop anybody anyway. To make matters worse, the top five tacklers from a year ago are gone. Linebacker Craig Robertson is just a sophomore, but will be thrust into a leadership role and the line, led by tackle Joseph Miller, has to find a way to get into the backfield. A large group of newcomers, both freshmen and junior college transfers, will add some much needed depth, but it remains to be seen if that will make a big difference right away.

Would love number in the high 40's/low 50's.
 
nevada is going to get tired against mizzou after playing texas tech. I like Mizzou to win big there and will probably like the over too.
 
also, can't imagine that USF is a home dog to Kansas. USF outgained UCF yesterday 500 to 225 or something silly like that but it still went to OT. KU's scores look pretty good but their D is def. not as good as last year. La Tech moved the ball on them but blew several chances to score.
 
RambleOn said:
Looks like Nebraska going to be more like -28.
Click to expand...

sounds right. I think San Jose is a better team than NMS. Nebraska played really bad yesterday. San Jose was the better team for the first 3 quarters until NU finally pulled its head out of its ass. Huskers had an INT for a TD and a KO return for a TD. San Jose's kicker sucks balls. The game could have easily gone to the wire.
 
RambleOn said:
Looks like Nebraska going to be more like -28.
Click to expand...

That's the opening number. I still may play it, though. Nebraska heading into a bye week needs something to build on for Va Tech, Mizzou, and TT coming up (yikes).

Also, Neb has 2 games under their belt and NMSU hasn't played a game. Expect Neb to start strong while NMSU will be overwhelmed early.
 
Added a play on Clemson. Haven't heard anyone mention this one. Any thoughts? I think Clemson rolls.
 
Looks like the LSU/North Texas game is on; From the Denton Record-Chronicle's Brett Vito ...
LSU officials have decided to keep the Tigers' game against North Texas at Tiger Stadium, UNT head coach Todd Dodge said Tuesday morning. LSU and the Baton Rouge area are still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Gustav that forced the school to postpone its game against Troy last week. The school was considering moving its game against UNT to Texas Stadium, the Georgia Dome or the Louisiana Superdome depending on the course Hurricane Ike took as it headed into the Gulf of Mexico.
Ike is now projected to hit in South Texas on Saturday morning.
"We found a little while ago that they have decided to play at Tiger Stadium," Dodge said. "We are going to travel on Friday like we were going to. My only concern is after the game how we are going to get back to Denton, but I can't control that right now."
​
 
RambleOn said:
"We are going to travel on Friday like we were going to. My only concern is after the game how we are going to get back to Denton, but I can't control that right now."
Click to expand...

Like UNT needs something else on their mind.

This will be Miles and Crowton's last chance to assess the QB situation before traveling to Auburn next week. I look for Crowton to open up the playbook and call plays to test his QB's, which means plenty of passing from LSU. LSU knows they can run the ball, so we won't risk injury of a RB or OL run blocking. All signs point to LSU obliterating UNT, but I am not going to lay 42 points when LSU is clearly looking ahead to Auburn.

And with a set total of 58.5 it eliminates the appeal of the over to me. We know LSU will be in the 30s or 40s by half, but will LSU's scoring hault when Crowton starts calling plays to really test Hatch and Lee? How many garbage points will LSU's defense allow? My best guess is 58-13.
 
Blue Chip -

Thanks for the thoughts. Doesn't that score prediction point to an easy over? Also, I'm positive that UNT doesn't score over 7. That leaves 52 for LSU. I see at least 42 points at halftime, don't you? I'll take a chance they score 10 in the 2nd H.
 
My score prediction would call for LSU and over bets, but that prediction was gut feel. I applied no analysis to it other than LSU will have 35-45 at half and UNT could get 1 TD in the game and another TD once LSU quits.

Now, if you can get LSU 1H -21... well, I might consider that one.
 
Some info on Wisconsin/Fresno St:

Pat Hill is fired up on a level somewhere between Pentecostal minister and exercise-equipment salesman.
He's doing that thing where he emphasizes every fourth word. "It's a huuuge game for this community," he says, his blood pressure at DEFCON 4.
To be the Fresno State football coach, you need a playbook and a bullhorn. Shake people awake. Sell those tickets. Get 'em in the tent.
<table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"></table> "I'm in to this game, not only for our team, but for our community," Hill says. "They should embrace a game like this. They want big-time football. They got a chance to have it. Right here in their own house."
This time, though, the salesman is pitching a quality product. In six days, No. 21 Fresno State plays No. 11 Wisconsin at Bulldog Stadium. Now that's a game.
It's the first time a Big Ten football team has played at Fresno State.
It's the first time two ranked college football teams have played in Fresno.
There have been close calls, of course. Oregon State was No. 10 when they came to town in 2001, but Fresno State was still one week from making the poll, only because the Bulldogs had beaten Colorado on a Sunday night, so the voters didn't get to see that game before submitting their ballots.
Bowling Green was No. 18 when it came to Fresno for the 1982 California Bowl, but the Bulldogs weren't ranked until they won that game and finished with just one loss.
This Wisconsin game, Hill says, is the biggest football game at Fresno State since he arrived. He is always careful to frame those kind of thoughts with, "since I've been here," because he doesn't want to offend other coaches and eras.
"I think it's great for our fans to finally have a game in their hometown," he says. "They don't have to go to UCLA. They don't have to go to USC. We don't have to have people fly and go see Notre Dame. They can go right here to Bulldog Stadium and watch the hometown team play a Big Ten powerhouse."



Looks like they are calling this the biggest game in Fresno St's history. They already put a beat down on Rutgers this year and are going to be on cloud 9 for this game.....anyone with thoughts? Fresno St sure looking like a play right now.....
 
Also, starting to like Western Kentucky +28.5. Alabama has a history of playing just to win, and they've got a two road game trip on deck at Arkansas and then at Georgia. I don't see a blowout here.
 
South Florida -3
First instinct was Kansas here. For some reason I think I was wrong, so I'm betting this side, lol. :popcorn:

:36_11_6:
 
Wow, on the same side of BOTH tonight... rare occurence

On both the bulls and bears, BOL ramble lets cash em!
 
tee*dub said:
GL on Baylor.. Health on USF..

hope it is a profittable weekend for you bro..
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know you're on Kansas. Like I said above, my first instinct was to bet them. I may be kicking myself when it's all said and done, but I'm rolling with it. I've never really trusted Kansas and for some reason this line is begging for Kansas money so I'm going the opposite way. Either way, health and luck to you as well, let's keep collecting. :shake:
 
Well, almost got the sweep done. 1-0-1 tonight and now 4-0-1 last 5.

Full card for tomorrow posted in a minute.
 
Card coming along slowly for me, for some reason. Don't see a WHOLE lot I'm interested in, and scared to bet the games the entire forum is on. Anyway, so far:

Clemson -18
LSU -41
Houston -2

Possible adds:

LSU Over
Fresno St
Western Ky
Texas Tech/SMU Over
Iowa State
Auburn
Uconn



Good luck today guys. :shake:
 
Last edited:
Adding:

Auburn -10
Uconn -11


Also, didn't realize Houston had been moved up. Bookie didn't either. So, that bet didn't even make it in, thank god. I will count in in record so it doesn't look shady, though.
 
Fucking bullshit push on Clemson. Fuck.

Texas Tech/SMU Over 68

This one should sail over. 56-21 ish.

Final add will be on Fresno St later if I decide to play it.
 
GL Ramble.Took Wisconsin in that late game.Thinking Fresno gets spanked.May be wrong but thats what I think.GL tonight.
 
BC - I hear ya. I think Miss St is pitiful and Auburn can't be happy about losing last year as 11.5 pt favorites.

Nawlins - Wisconsin very well could roll. But I don't see how you can lay those points against a decent team like Fresno who is playing the biggest game of their careers?
 
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