Ramble's Saturday Bowl: U

[RambleOn]

2-0 this bowl season with FAU and CMichigan winners. Looking to make it 3-0.


UCF -2.5

Wanted to post this because I've seen almost the entire board on Mississippi State. The response is almost the same... why in hell is UCF favored by 3 over Miss St? SEC school? Basic home game? Better shedule? Seems kind of fishy, doesn't it?

Sorry to say it, but Miss St's season has been a sham. I've watched many of their games, and all I can say is that they have been given many of the victories they have recieved. Too many fumbles and interceptions have gone their way this year. Remember Alabama going in to score, on the Bulldog 10 yard line, and the dumbass Bama QB throws a pass off his back foot right to a Bulldog corner who returns it 100 yards for a score? Yeah, Miss St still barely won that game. Another one: Ole Miss shitty ass was beating State FOURTEEN to fucking NOTHING in the 4th quarter. We shut state down all damn day, and I think they had something ridiculous like ONE 1st Down or something.

So, what does Orgeron do? He goes for it on their 45 yard line on 4th down, and of course misses. It was at that point that many of us believe he was fired. To make a long story short, that gave State the momentumm they needed, and they outscored us 17-0 in the final minutes to win 17-14! Tell me that is not lucky!

State is not going to win this game. UCF doesn't turn the ball over. State is going to have to stop Smith, and it hasn't been done yet, and I don't see it happening now. Much has been said about Kyle Israel not being that great, but guys, he has thrown for over 2,000 yards with a 15/8 TD/INT ratio. That's pretty good in my book.

Motivation? We know what State's is: they've sucked for years and now they have a chance to go to a bowl. Of course they'll be fired up. So will UCF. This is their 2nd EVER bowl appearance. EVER. After the magnificent season they have had, you don't think they want to win this game to go out on a good note? You don't think they hear crap about the SEC..... every other word probably...... and want to prove that they are not just another shitty CUSA team?

Just wanted to post my thoughts. Kind of jumbled, but this is the only game up until now I've had a real opinion on. Good health to those on the Bulldogs. If UCF turns the ball over then State has a chance to win this. If they don't, I think UCF dominates the run game (State has given up over 200 yards in 4 of their last 6) and squashes these fools from Starkvegas.

:shake:

 

[Clyde]

I've been on the fence with this game and you pushed me to the UCF side.

 

[spanishshark]

Good luck bud. On them too. :cheers:

 

[Marlo]

Historically what wins football games

1.) A power running Attack (check)
2.) Good Defense (check)
3.) Time of Possesion/Winning the T/O ratio (check)

Similar to the game we are watching right now. Tough game, but I think your on the right side

 

[tee*dub]

good luck bro.. leaning Miss St. Too much focus on Smith. Not sure I play it yet or not

 

[PURPLE & GOLD]

Ramble I am one of the many on State.
This program has turned a corner whether you want to admit it or not.
I follow your plays regularly and Im shocked to see you on UCF.

If nothing else the schedule disparity should eek out the State victory.
Then again you got me nervous now. Good health dogonnit!

 

[SportsNut]

Wassup bro.

Start by saying I am leaning Miss State as well.

For my bowl season is about competition faced , motivation and perception.

I absolutely agree that Miss St season is the product of some good luck , nice breaks , good bounces , terrible opposition coaching and favorable situations as they caught Auburn and Kentucky in great spots.

Here is my point thought at what point does this turn into momentum for that program? We have all season teams in all sports who seem to kinda look terrible on paper but have a guardian angel guiding them along. Off the top of my head maybe we can compare them with the Bears team a few years back. the one with the truly unstoppable DEF with Orton as there QB.

So competition faced...

UCF - they won @ NCST , hosted Texas in a great spot and despite close score that game should have not been that close (sloppy play made a 3TD game a 3pt game) , they lost @ ECU and lost BADLY @ USF . WHo else did they play that was a challenge? Maybe A SoMiss but they had the benefit of facing there 2nd Qb Reaves. So nice win but not great. They really played a bunch of medicore teams at hoem at best ...Tulsa twice , memphis , ULL , Marshall , UTEP how many games did these teams win away this season??

Miss State played maybe 3 bad teams all year Tulane , UAB and Garnder Webb.

If Mcfadden can be shut down by MissState why not Smith? Dixon should have the upper hand running vs UCF defense......

Really think this game is a toss up and would prefer the 3 points...sort of had to cut this short but maybe I will be back in time...

Clearly Miss St needs to start quickly...BOL

 

[RambleOn]

Thanks for the thoughts, guys.

Purple and Gold - Good to hear from you. I'm not saying that State hasn't improved. They were a very good game this year. But I just don't see them as a dominant team for some reason, and maybe it's because I am biased towards them, who knows. They sure got some lucky breaks this year, but also played pretty well. Next year will be the deciding factor, I think.

SportsNut - man, you need to post more. Miss hearing your analysis. You're one of the guys I actually thought would be on my side. Isn't the line weird to you? You're one of those guys that likes to analyze the line, and I don't see any of that in your discussion. SEC team playing with momentum in basically a home game, and they're getting 3? Seems a little odd. To me, it seems like the oddsmakers knew the sharps would be on UCF at anything at PK or better, so they had to make the line minus to get some action on State for those that think it'll be close. Just my opinion, could be all wrong.

I'm not saying this is a lock, and I won't eat crow if it loses. It's just my opinion. :shake:

BOL and Health this season guys. :shake:

 

[Marlo]

Ramble

So far the Faves of 5 or less, for the exception of BC have covered. They easily could have kicked a field goal yesterday and covered.

 

[SportsNut]

SportsNut - man, you need to post more. Miss hearing your analysis. You're one of the guys I actually thought would be on my side. Isn't the line weird to you? You're one of those guys that likes to analyze the line, and I don't see any of that in your discussion. SEC team playing with momentum in basically a home game, and they're getting 3? Seems a little odd. To me, it seems like the oddsmakers knew the sharps would be on UCF at anything at PK or better, so they had to make the line minus to get some action on State for those that think it'll be close. Just my opinion, could be all wrong.


Being trying to Ramble. Been doing my best to share my Bowl thoughts with Tee*Dub and EverythingsThatGreen in there threads and JPicks maybe a few others in the NBA.

I kinda got caught have to run out in the middle of starting to post my thoughts on this game. So I only got about 1/3 of what I wanted to say out.

Is the line odd ? Not really . Though it depends on what people focus on. The fact that Miss State is an SEC team or the fact UCF won there conference convincingly and has a Heisman hopeful in Kevin Smith. How many peeps can name any key Miss State players? Real quick I noticed how high they had lined UCF @ UAB so I can understand where they get the -3 from. To be honest I havent seem much of the HFA edge priced into these lines...didnt really see with New Mex or Wake Forest..and while Miss State is SEC team they dont have that reputation in the publics eyes as a team that will get automatic action...the play for this type logic was clearly fading Maryland yesterday and taking Oregon State. I felt that way all day but didnt have the balls to do it cause I thought Maryland could have scored abit more then they did...but thats in the past..

While its always good to know what and why something is lined sometimes we have to tell ourselves as long as there an arguement for other side then it cant be that off.

Again in a rush bro but if it makes you feel any better I decided on Miss State 1st Half @ +1 cause I felt the Bulldogs need to start strong and werent really a team that could come back on someones especially since UCF has started slow a few times..

BOL

 

[SportsNut]

Perfectly happy with that result ..tied @ 3 ...1st H +1 wins...

I am really kicking myself for continously finding reason to pass on the last 5 unders !

Good Luck in the 2nd H....Miss State had more of a chance to do something and that concerns me that no matter what UCF hands then they cant score or move the ball....staying out of this game....should have went playaction on 2nd and goal imo

 

[RambleOn]

I think we all know what the right side was.

UCF dominated on offense the entire game (if you can call it that), and I was completely correct in my assesment that the only chance State has was with turnovers.

Sportsnut - feel lucky, State only tied it up at half because of the INT Kyle Isael through STRAIGHT to the bulldog defender.

ANOTHER game giftwrapped for State. I don't feel bad though, I believe in my head and heart I had the right side, but the right side doesn't always win. Glad you all cashed. :shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Miss State was they won. They didnt deserve to win but then again why did UCF? They had there chances and blew them. I dont think anything that drastic happened in this game then what one would expect. Miss State is challenged on offense and there defense is real tough. Hell that was probably the best game UCF played on defense all season though.

Why should anyone feel lucky? Cause UCF got a short field off a bad punt and kicked a 45 yd fg by inches maybe an inch? Especially when the kicker missed from 32 and 37 later in the game. I thought it was pretty lucky to hit that 45 yder. Miss State would have won every quarter if you bet it that way.. its all how we look at. Like saying Maryland was the right play yesterday cause they missed a FG but didnt game situation dictate just running the clock out late and kept points off the board?

I'll be honest once I make a play I barely watch live. Who needs the headache..I'll follow on my laptop instead....

Israel is not good and like to many teams they have one weapon..Kevin Smith. Where's a WR who is a stud or a TE? You know what the difference bewteen BC and UCOnn is Matt Ryan..simple as that one player...same here take away Kevin Smith and what is UCF?

You deserve to be pissed though. You dont want to lose cause of incompetance . Good teams should make those plays but I guess the truth is UCF isnt very good. Not that Miss State is by any stretch but like you said they are charmed.....

Hell I stayed away at half because if any offense would move the ball it would be UCF . Just a matter of who made mistakes and no one can deny that UCF gave the game away....

I pushed with the Jazz +6 cause Tony Allen decided to take a layup with 2 seconds left probably off along rebound or something...there was no reason to but doesnt make Utah the wright or wrong side....

You will get it back tmrw...

 

[Blue_Chip]

I'm not saying this is a lock, and I won't eat crow if it loses. It's just my opinion.

 

[Blue_Chip]

^ i had to... forgive me