Raiders vs. Bengals Discussion Thread

  • Carr with Ruggs (Weeks 1-7): 90.2 PFF passing grade, 8.6% big-time throw rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 9.2 aDOT
  • Without (Weeks 8-18): 63.7 PFF passing grade, 4.2% big-time throw rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.8 aDOT
 
Timh said:
  • Carr with Ruggs (Weeks 1-7): 90.2 PFF passing grade, 8.6% big-time throw rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 9.2 aDOT
  • Without (Weeks 8-18): 63.7 PFF passing grade, 4.2% big-time throw rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.8 aDOT
Click to expand...

They def a totally different team w Ruggs. I know they brought in djax to try and fill the void but he mostly washed, did he get hurt? I havnt even seen him last several weeks.
 
Timh said:
  • Carr with Ruggs (Weeks 1-7): 90.2 PFF passing grade, 8.6% big-time throw rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 9.2 aDOT
  • Without (Weeks 8-18): 63.7 PFF passing grade, 4.2% big-time throw rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.8 aDOT
Click to expand...

To be fair to Carr, a lot of those weeks later in the season he was also without Waller, who's really the best player on the team.

I want to be on Cincy here, but there's a good bit of love for the Raiders out in these streets.
 
Joe Public said:
To be fair to Carr, a lot of those weeks later in the season he was also without Waller, who's really the best player on the team.

I want to be on Cincy here, but there's a good bit of love for the Raiders out in these streets.
Click to expand...

That certainly part of it but Ruggs made life way better for Waller also.
 
Some thoughts.....

I dont have any idea how to quantify it but you have to take into account that their first meeting was smack dab in the middle of a month of shit storming down on the team from Gruden to Ruggs to Arnette. They had the looks of a team that had just about given up.

I have been a Raiders fan for about as long as I have been able to walk and this is the hardest team for me to wrap my head around since I have been a fan. They had the looks of a team that had packed it in for the season a month ago only to reel off four wins in a row to make the playoffs. I look back and see losses to The Giants, The Bears and The WFT that could have made this a 13 win team had they won those very winnable games. That is crazy to think about.

I have to think that the pressure in this one lies squarely on the Bengals. The Raiders are not even supposed to be here so its all gravy.

Josh Jacobs looked as healthy as he has the entire season last week. Waller back after missing extended time opens things up quite a bit as well.

Another very important thing to me on the Raiders side of the ball is Carr getting his first taste of playoff football in his career. In 2016 he broke his leg and missed their playoff game.

Mixon owned the Raiders in the first matchup so they have to find a way to stop the run this time around and losing Darius Philon last week certainly hurts.

The Raiders have been in must win situations for a month now. The Bengals let off the gas last week and rested players. I have seen this go both ways in the past. Who knows?
 
Coverdatspred said:
Some thoughts.....

I dont have any idea how to quantify it but you have to take into account that their first meeting was smack dab in the middle of a month of shit storming down on the team from Gruden to Ruggs to Arnette. They had the looks of a team that had just about given up.

I have been a Raiders fan for about as long as I have been able to walk and this is the hardest team for me to wrap my head around since I have been a fan. They had the looks of a team that had packed it in for the season a month ago only to reel off four wins in a row to make the playoffs. I look back and see losses to The Giants, The Bears and The WFT that could have made this a 13 win team had they won those very winnable games. That is crazy to think about.

I have to think that the pressure in this one lies squarely on the Bengals. The Raiders are not even supposed to be here so its all gravy.

Josh Jacobs looked as healthy as he has the entire season last week. Waller back after missing extended time opens things up quite a bit as well.

Another very important thing to me on the Raiders side of the ball is Carr getting his first taste of playoff football in his career. In 2016 he broke his leg and missed their playoff game.

Mixon owned the Raiders in the first matchup so they have to find a way to stop the run this time around and losing Darius Philon last week certainly hurts.

The Raiders have been in must win situations for a month now. The Bengals let off the gas last week and rested players. I have seen this go both ways in the past. Who knows?
Click to expand...

isnt it fair to say cincy has arrived ahead of schedule and pretty much playing with house money as well? i dont see either team feeling immense pressure as in they have to win for the season to be a success, normal playoff pressure for bunch of guys on both sides that never really been here but far as the weight some teams with loftier expectations i dont think that really a factor for either side, while the loser be disappointed i think both can look at this season as a success regardless of outcome.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I just keep thinking about how Herbert was carving the Raiders up lg and what the Bengals wr can do. MIke Williams could have had 200+ imagine Chase/Higgins in this matchup. Obv key to the game is pass pro Maxx is an animal. I just don't think he can get there consistently enough to stop JoeB from ripping them.
Click to expand...
Absolutely that's the key.

I keep remembering what the Niners did to that OL and although Joe had some 4th quarter heroics he had very little time back there
 
B.A.R. said:
Absolutely that's the key.

I keep remembering what the Niners did to that OL and although Joe had some 4th quarter heroics he had very little time back there
Click to expand...

maybe im wrong but i think niners d front as a whole is prob better than raiders.
 
curious if you guys think the fact Burrow and chase have played in huge college games matter far as experience in these type games? i cant imagine they feeling more pressure than in the ncaa playoffs right?
 
B.A.R. said:
Sure, not disagreeing... Just using one game as a reference...

Not a fan of the Cincy OL.
Click to expand...

oh im with ya, that the only part their team that really doesnt belong, it why im really hoping to see them look good and have to play titans next!!
 
I don't think the chargers qb lit up the raiders at all. 6 yards per pass attempt. shrug. Look, you are gonna throw for some yards when you throw it 64 times in one game and you are doing it from way behind the whole time.

Bengals should have too much playmaking for the raiders but Las Vegas is certainly playing good ball right now. The chargers game was as good as they have looked all year, so they are potentially peaking at the right time.
 
if cincy attempts that many passes burrow might not make it thru the entire game!! i expect they run mixon quite a bit early to try and slow the pass rush.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Some thoughts.....

I dont have any idea how to quantify it but you have to take into account that their first meeting was smack dab in the middle of a month of shit storming down on the team from Gruden to Ruggs to Arnette. They had the looks of a team that had just about given up.

I have been a Raiders fan for about as long as I have been able to walk and this is the hardest team for me to wrap my head around since I have been a fan. They had the looks of a team that had packed it in for the season a month ago only to reel off four wins in a row to make the playoffs. I look back and see losses to The Giants, The Bears and The WFT that could have made this a 13 win team had they won those very winnable games. That is crazy to think about.

I have to think that the pressure in this one lies squarely on the Bengals. The Raiders are not even supposed to be here so its all gravy.

Josh Jacobs looked as healthy as he has the entire season last week. Waller back after missing extended time opens things up quite a bit as well.

Another very important thing to me on the Raiders side of the ball is Carr getting his first taste of playoff football in his career. In 2016 he broke his leg and missed their playoff game.

Mixon owned the Raiders in the first matchup so they have to find a way to stop the run this time around and losing Darius Philon last week certainly hurts.

The Raiders have been in must win situations for a month now. The Bengals let off the gas last week and rested players. I have seen this go both ways in the past. Who knows?
Click to expand...
I ran through the schedule. I think the Raiders can hang, but they can’t have one of those clunker games….that’s the bet
 
throw out the last game where cincy rested guys i think it fair to say they peaking at right time just as much as raiders, they wernt really playing great when they faced raiders the 1st time, the passing game has def taken off the last month. some of that might be opponent based but i think it no coincidence raiders played their best game of the year vs the pathetic coached chargers run d either. lots of run games peaked when they saw the chargers, ask the texans!
 
id feel better if cincy wasnt so stubborn about only protecting with 5, you would think they would maybe give their shitty oline some help but they rarely do.
 
Joe Public said:
To be fair to Carr, a lot of those weeks later in the season he was also without Waller, who's really the best player on the team.

I want to be on Cincy here, but there's a good bit of love for the Raiders out in these streets.
Click to expand...
That's true but I think the loss of Ruggs really shows up in the dramatic drop in adot for their passing game overall. They have not been able to replace that stretch element in their offense and I think that hurts them overall as they can get flattened out more when teams are aggressive and bring the safeties up into the second level.
 
Timh said:
That's true but I think the loss of Ruggs really shows up in the dramatic drop in adot for their passing game overall. They have not been able to replace that stretch element in their offense and I think that hurts them overall as they can get flattened out more when teams are aggressive and bring the safeties up into the second level.
Click to expand...

Kills them imo. With Ruggs and assuming waller heathy that feels a lot more like a playoff team. He was a perfect fit, teams having to respect him over the top opened up everything for waller and Renfro underneath. Without him ya gotta believe Cincy gonna be real aggressive. Let’s be real they wernt exactly lighting up the scoreboard on their win streak, they failed to reach 20 most those games!! Oline problems and all I don’t any chance they hold cincy out of 20s.
 
Raiders had more yards per play than cinci last time. Cinci was much better on third down (50% vs the raiders 14%) and raiders had 7 penalties to the bengals 1 (at home no less). 4th qtr td drive of 27 yards after turnover and 2 yard drive for a fg after fumble made the score look bad.

I guess I am optimistically hopeful the raiders keep it a game. They could lay an absolute egg and get run in the cold (definitely helps cinci) and bengals have the better team overall (obviously) but no reason to think the raiders cannot win or keep it close. I certainly think the backdoor becomes viable too. Raiders won't quit.... if they have proven anything, it is that.

I am emotionally invested in the raiders playing well so I am completely biased.

I certainly think the bengals will win, but I hope not.
 
I do like over alot but really hope the cold doesn't affect some 45 yard field goal needed to get home
 
2daBank said:
maybe im wrong but i think niners d front as a whole is prob better than raiders.
Click to expand...
Raiders are much better at pressuring the qb

Crosby and ngakoue had 163 combined pressures, thomas and jefferson on the inside had 76

49ers werent close, bosa and key had 111, armstead had 52 inside
 
Timh said:
That's true but I think the loss of Ruggs really shows up in the dramatic drop in adot for their passing game overall. They have not been able to replace that stretch element in their offense and I think that hurts them overall as they can get flattened out more when teams are aggressive and bring the safeties up into the second level.
Click to expand...
Definitely a huge factor in the lack of deep passing game, he opened up so much even as a decoy

They've had to switch to less of a quick strike offense and more run heavy and possession receivers

If it's a shootout the Bengals get a huge advantage
 
guaranteeed said:
Raiders are much better at pressuring the qb

Crosby and ngakoue had 163 combined pressures, thomas and jefferson on the inside had 76

49ers werent close, bosa and key had 111, armstead had 52 inside
Click to expand...

Yea but niners get home more. 3rd in sack rate where as raiders sack rate a not so hot 23rd in league. Pressures are nice but I still think a lot to be said for actually taking the qb down, best qbs make plays under pressure, not to mention pressures lead to all those weak ass roughing penalties where they barely tap the qb head or feet or whatever and it extends the drive, lol. Judging by raiders penalties per game and worst in league penalty yards per game they know all to well bout that!!
 
Last edited:
That prob means something. Cincy fewest penalty yards per game against while raiders have the most.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I just keep thinking about how Herbert was carving the Raiders up lg and what the Bengals wr can do. MIke Williams could have had 200+ imagine Chase/Higgins in this matchup. Obv key to the game is pass pro Maxx is an animal. I just don't think he can get there consistently enough to stop JoeB from ripping them.
Click to expand...
Keenan Allen did almost nothing despite Herbert throwing 60+ passes. Herbert‘s passer rating was 80.4, wouldn‘t exactly say that he dominated. He had a ton of trouble getting completions against what is a pretty solid group of defensive backs.
 
2daBank said:
Kills them imo. With Ruggs and assuming waller heathy that feels a lot more like a playoff team. He was a perfect fit, teams having to respect him over the top opened up everything for waller and Renfro underneath. Without him ya gotta believe Cincy gonna be real aggressive. Let’s be real they wernt exactly lighting up the scoreboard on their win streak, they failed to reach 20 most those games!! Oline problems and all I don’t any chance they hold cincy out of 20s.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with the stretch the field issue. The combo of Waller, Ruggs, and Jacobs gives you something to worry about on every level. Once you start removing pieces from that, it's easier to defend the Raiders.
 
RetroVK said:
Raiders had more yards per play than cinci last time. Cinci was much better on third down (50% vs the raiders 14%) and raiders had 7 penalties to the bengals 1 (at home no less). 4th qtr td drive of 27 yards after turnover and 2 yard drive for a fg after fumble made the score look bad.
Click to expand...

As someone who was on the Bengals in that first game, this is a good point. That score is/was deceiving. That game was a coin-flip until very late. But that game, and the reason I was on it, was largely because of the spot. If you remember, that was right after a division game and right before LVR had to go on the road to Dallas for Thanksgiving.

I also thought then as I do now that Cincy was and is the better team, but I would honestly throw a good part of that game out going into this one.

What is kind of interesting between the two is where the line went for this one. Sort of a big move without much justification—unless you're putting the move on, again, the spot. LVR coming off a huge emotional win, having to travel and play on Saturday. Kinda shitty, but is it worth an extra three points?

I don't love the number here, but I do think Cincy wins. The key is protecting Burrow. The Raiders will let you beat them over the top, and Cincy has the weapons to do it, they just need to be able to have the time to do it.

Also, fun fact that may or may not apply this week, word is Carr is like 0-5 in games when the temp is below 35 degrees as it will be for this game. Of course, all of those teams may have also sucked out loud and been a contributing factor to that stat.
 
Joe Public said:
As someone who was on the Bengals in that first game, this is a good point. That score is/was deceiving. That game was a coin-flip until very late. But that game, and the reason I was on it, was largely because of the spot. If you remember, that was right after a division game and right before LVR had to go on the road to Dallas for Thanksgiving.

I also thought then as I do now that Cincy was and is the better team, but I would honestly throw a good part of that game out going into this one.

What is kind of interesting between the two is where the line went for this one. Sort of a big move without much justification—unless you're putting the move on, again, the spot. LVR coming off a huge emotional win, having to travel and play on Saturday. Kinda shitty, but is it worth an extra three points?

I don't love the number here, but I do think Cincy wins. The key is protecting Burrow. The Raiders will let you beat them over the top, and Cincy has the weapons to do it, they just need to be able to have the time to do it.

Also, fun fact that may or may not apply this week, word is Carr is like 0-5 in games when the temp is below 35 degrees as it will be for this game. Of course, all of those teams may have also sucked out loud and been a contributing factor to that stat.
Click to expand...

Raiders d being on the field for 88 plays Sunday night and so much in 4th qrtr has to be a concern. I really think cincy wins and the general rule is don’t worry bout the points but I still don’t feel great laying them, lol. Honestly with way raiders have won so many last play/ot games this year if it within the number I prob rather be on raiders ml anyways.
 
They offering mixon to score/cincy wins -105. But if you just do same game parlay with mixon and cincy ml it is +110, should be +127 according to my math but think I’m good with +110 on this.
 
2daBank said:
They offering mixon to score/cincy wins -105. But if you just do same game parlay with mixon and cincy ml it is +110, should be +127 according to my math but think I’m good with +110 on this.
Click to expand...
I've got +115/+127 with those options. Throw Jacobs to score in there also and it goes over +400

Actually w/Jacobs the prop is +400 but the parlay takes it to +510
 
KJ said:
I've got +115/+127 with those options. Throw Jacobs to score in there also and it goes over +400

Actually w/Jacobs the prop is +400 but the parlay takes it to +510
Click to expand...

I don’t like to go past 2 in most my parlays. I don’t hate jacobs to score or anything, I have wrote down but havnt bet it yet. I would prob be more likely to throw in waller or renfro yards if I was gonna add a 3rd to it but doubt I would.
 
I played the mixon to score/cincy to win parlay. I like that best. Also played bunch of other props, I had got down on mixon and waller to score days ago (think every player to score I played this week line has moved my way so no matter outcome at least I have that! Lol). Waller, renfro, mixon, and Boyd over receiving yards. Didn’t play chase or Higgins, think only one of them goes over and couldn’t decide which. lol.
 
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