Q1 2017 Dylanphan portfolio

dylanphan

dylanphan

Pretty much a regular
Here I will post winners. My method is pretty simple - small is 1 unit standard size bet, medium is 2 unit bet and large is 3 unit bet.
When I get up 10 units, I increase my unit size (I wish) and when I get down 10 units I vomit.
Will see how diligent I can be about this over the first quarter of 2017. Generally, as spring hits I am not nearly as proficient in my posting (read, swearing) on CTG as life in general gets in the way, as well as my unhealthy obsession with rotisserie baseball (and this year I'm really going to make a go of it as I've been hugely profitable now for almost 10 years running, never a losing season and got the go ahead from the boss, ahem wife that I could really invest in myself this year).
Sooooo, with all that being said, let's see if we can get some momentum going here. And if that doesn't work, I hope I can bring a smile or a laugh to some of your pretty faces.
:cheers3:
 
UAE Soccer 1004 Al Jazira (UAE-Cup)/Al Wahda (UAE-Cup) Over 3 +126
1.00 to make 1.26

:cheers3:
 
+1.26

England Soccer 202 Macclesfield (FA Trophy) -1½ -120* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Altrincham (FA Trophy)
1.20 to make 1.00

:cheers3:
 
+0.06 (1-1)

Starting off with this one and may be back later with a few more
UAE Soccer 1105 Al Ain (UAE-Cup) -½,-1 -124*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Al Nasr (UAE-Cup)
1.24 to make 1.00

:cheers3:
 
-1.18 (1-2)
Oh how I hate cup games.....
Barcelona (ESP-Cup)/Athletic Bilbao (ESP-Cup) 1st Half Over 1,1½ -105*
2.10 to make 2.00

:cheers3:
 
+0.82 (2-2)
Big card coming up for me tomorrow. Hopefully we start off with a winner.
Australia Soccer 1201 West Sydney (AUS-A)/Melbourne City (AUS-A) Over 2½,3 -134*
2.68 to make 2.00

:cheers3:
 
-1.86 (2-3)

Always nice to wake up to a big fucking loser :hang:

Going with these today:
Manchester City (ENG-FA Cup) -139*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> West Ham (ENG-FA Cup)
1.39 to make 1.00
Deportivo La Coruna (ESP-P)/Espanyol (ESP-P) 1st Half Over ½,1 -128
1.28 to make 1.00

Was looking to also bet the over in Monaco but fuck that's at 3.25 and not sure Ajaccio gonna score to be honest, so I'll just pass.

:cheers3:
 
Any thoughts on the over tonight in Mexico? I like it but everything I like turns to crap lately. Just seeing your thoughts if possible
 
For tonight:

Loros de Colima (MEX-2)/Venados (MEX-2) Over 2½ -119
1.19 to make 1.00
Queretaro (MEX)/Veracruz (MEX) 1st Half Over 1 -122
1.22 to make 1.00

Ordinarily, I'd make the Veracruz a bigger play, but its the first game. Beautiful night tonight, line seems too low, will probably end at nil

:cheers3:
 
-4.55 (3-6)

This portfolio sucks! Let's see if I can turn this ship around today with a few more plays

Eastleigh (ENG-FA Cup)/Brentford (ENG-FA Cup) Over 3 -125
1.25 to make 1.00
Stenhousemuir (SCO-1)/East Fife (SCO-1) Over 2½ -139
1.39 to make 1.00
Forfar (SCO-2)/Annan (SCO-2) Over 3 -125
2.50 to make 2.00
Swansea (ENG-FA Cup) +184* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Hull City (ENG-FA Cup)
1.00 to make 1.84

:cheers3:

Oh and fuck yeah getting to watch the Dale!
 
4-8-1
-5.94

fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

gonna change up the way I post my bets, see if that helps my luck
Cruz Azul/Nexaca o1 (1H) +105
1.00 to make 1.05

:cheers3:
 
5-8-2
-4.94

Spurs/AV o2.5 -147
1.47 to make 1.00
Toluca/Atlas o1 (1H) evs
2.00 to make 2.00

:cheers3:
 
Lost some bets in the purge, probably all losers....
So my record is inconsequential at this point.

But, here comes a gift from the bookies tonight

Pachuca/Saprissa o2.5 +140
I put 2 units on it.
Will definitely end at nil.

:cheers3:
 
Plenty more losers where that came from! Europa league action today, where I'm about 0fer eternity.
Gimme just a bit to read up and post some BIG losers
:cheers3:
 
We'll start with these:
ManU +109 @ St Etienne
Real Madrid/Valencia o3 (-140)

United not really fucking around today, starting Pogba, Mata, Zibra. They don't have to worry about a league game this weekend, just have the cup final vs Southampton.
FA cup match they started a shit lineup, let Blackburn hang around, before bringing in the big guns, and wala, they walked away with a win. And while the league is probably beyond their reach this year, Jose has pretty much said he wants to win every game, so no reason they fuck around today with the frenchies. And while they have a comfortable lead in the tie, I just don't think St Etienne will offer much here other than trying to save face at home. I think United win something like 2-0 here and walk on.

Not much to say about spain other than I expect goals, just like in Saprissa last night :cheers3:
 
Going to add a few more here

Bristol City/Fulham o1 (1h) - 130
Juventus +164

I do like goals in the Bristol City game, but it's a bit too juiced for full time so let's see if we can get 2 before ht. I may chase here with a late goal(S) bet too, but if we get the 2 before HT, will just cash and watch.
I'm quite hesitant betting against Porto at home, as their domestic record is near flawless with just a single draw in 12 matches and a 29-7 gd.....however, let's be honest here and Juventus is one of the best teams in the world. If you give me +164 on an away win with the better side, I'll probably take that more often than not. Probably will be a very low scoring game here, as Porto will want to keep Juve off the board, and Juve hardly ever concedes. 0-0 is a very likely outcome, but I'll take a shot on the Juve win.
I do like Sevilla to shit stomp this Leicester side, but obviously I'm not alone in this and the odds reflect this. Price too steep for me to consider as you almost have to lay a 1.25 or 1.5 handicap to make it worth a while, and this one could just end mercifully at 1-0, so pass.

:cheers3:
 
Ah, Edinburgh derby here today in Scotland too. Probably not going to play anything cause it's a cup game, but these always have some bit to it. Old Firm match gets all the attention, but no love loss between Hearts and Hibs.
 
Portfolio is on the rise here. 2 winners at +109 and +164 does help. As does no losers (although I feel like a loser as the Spain game got 3 goals in the first half, and then nothing, and we got an early road goal in the Fulham game which almost always equates to more goals, but nothing there).
So, 2-0-2 yesterday and +273 makes up for the 2 unit ass pounding I took in Costa Rica/Mexican fuck fest.

Today plenty of losers to choose from.
Early on, we are going to roll with Lekhwiya -1 (-106) in Qatar. Lekhwiya keeps those goals coming at an astronomical rate, averaging 3.1 gpg. But, on the road, that average dips to 2.4 gpg. Sailiya is a middling opponent and I think they'd be wise not go get this one too open, but I still think we get a convincing win. Something like 2-0, 3-0. May look into an over at HT as away side does have a strong tendency to score late, but at this point, just going with the side.

:cheers3:
 
useless cunts. Missed penalty never helps :hang:

Going u2 (-126) in this Turkish/Greek Europa cup game. Just think this one ends at nil again.
 
Blue Horseshoe LOVES TJ/Monterrey o1 1h tonight. And by love, I mean let's go the full 3 units on it. :cheers3:
 
This morning we're rolling with Newcastle/Bristol City o2.5 -106 and Peterborough/The Dale o2.5 -117

:cheers3:
 
Nice morning for the portfolio, and other than that ill advised under bet, this portfolio has been overperforminng of late. Maybe it will bring back Hugh613 (or others) into the forum to post up some more winners!

we're going with two more for today until Mexican games tonight

Roda/Heerenveen o1 (-136) 1h big bet here at 2 units

Chicago Fire/Toronto o2.5 +106 - Fire have been having a terrific preseason so far and Toronto is favored so I'm seeing some goals in this one.

:cheers3:
 
Just a bump in road here with these useless dutch cunts not being able to knock a single goal in. easy winner in the other game recaps some of that loss.
Be back in a bit with a few more plays
 
ahh wth, let's also roll with o2.5 (-140) real espana/real socidead game. just small, but think this one gets to 3 too.
 
Been pretty busy with work and gearing up for MLB this year....still watching a lot of soccer of course...but, I guess I'm not doing a great job keeping up with everything.
Watched the Toluca game this weekend and who do I see for Toluca, but my LEAST favorite CA player, Reubens Sambuenza. Guess he is now on Toluca, fuck that guy.
Then watched the Chiapas/Chivas game (great game btw) and who do I see is the gk for Chiapas none other than Mo Munuoz. I guess he was loaned out. Fucking America getting rid of everyone.

Anyway, tonight I like the Leon/Morelia o2.5 at -140. Cup game, and lots of chalk, certain loser.

:cheers3:
 
Nice 5 goal outburst last night, always good.

Today the portfolio is looking to keep the rally going:
Espanyol/Celta Vigo o1 (+120) first half

:cheers3:
 
Rally continues.
We're going to play one more here for now and maybe back tonight.

Atletico MG/ACF o2.5 +117

:cheers3:
 
Two positions taken this morning (I'll be out all day so these are just standard size positions)

napoli/roma o2.5 (-145)
Darmstadt/Bremen o1 (1h) -128

:cheers3:
 
Two more for now....
going back to the well with Club Celaya +226 Think they get me a big hit here.
Also going to bite with Tigres/Puebla o1 (+120) FH.

:cheers3:
 
Going to add Orlando/NYC o3 (-130)
Probably way too much chalk but who doesn't love goals? And these teams both seem to score them. :cheers3:
 
Gonna play 1h o1 -113 in this Antalyspor/Gala match today
Both teams missing some key players for sure, but no reason not to expect goals as Gala needs points to get into CL play and Antalyspor not in any fear of relegation.
we'll see how this goes.
 
Two more for today

Utrecht/Venlo o2.75 (-113)
Chelsea -0.75 (-130)

Dutch match has top of the table Venlo visiting bottom dwellers Utrecht. Venlo scores >2 gpg, Home side allows > 2gpg. Should be straight forward enough, 3-1 away win sounds right. Was thinking about Venlo on the handicap, but 2-1 game still gets me half a win so no need to be too greedy.

I really want Chelsea to lose today so fucking bad, but West Ham is just not that good and half their team is injured and payets gone, I just don't see them hanging around. Chelsea clinical in every facet of the game right now and truth be told, they win this one, a 10 point lead with 11 games left, no one is gonna catch them. West Ham spinning their wheels here middle of the table as seeming always....it is a prime time matchup so stranger things have happened, but I think we get here a 1-0, 2-0 away win.

:cheers3:
 
profitable day yesterday and I mean that is the smallest possible way with that late shit from West Ham.

But, a winning day is always better than the alternative.

Onwards to today and not all that much i love but as this is a portfolio that is driven by profit, a day without a bet is a day without a win. So, will add these positions for today

Lincoln -115 @ Braintree
Bayern/Arsenal o1.5 (+130) first half

Lincoln bet pretty common here, get a top of the table team playing against a side going nowhere fast. Both teams could use the points, but Braintree is the poorest team at home in the league. No reason not to back the away side here.

Arsenal always play more aggressive at home, and honestly, they may expect a pretty sour home crowd here. They really have no reason to sit back, who cares if they lose again 5-1, would be the same result as a 0-0 game so at least play as if they have nothing to lose, right? Bayern also always up for goals, I figure if the game is lined at o3....if it isn't at 2 by ht, it aint gonna get there cause Bayern just gonna kick the ball around all second half really. They may do that first half too, but at least at the start of the game there is a glimmer of hope I suppose.
And I could certainly make a similar assessment on the other match, but at 1-3, Napoli could advance with a 2-0 here on away goal differential, so I suppose they could play a bit more passively first half, let's face it if they get up 1-0 it may be nut squeezing time for Real. But, end of the day, I think Real get the result here needed to move on and the game stays reasonable, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1...whereas I think we could get some fireworks in London today.

who knows
:cheers3:
 
Even day in the market today. Tons of games tomorrow but going to start while I'm sleeping.
Sydney -1.75 (-124)
Heavy heavy handicap here but truth be told I'd rather sacrifice a touch of profit if we just win by 2 then eat all that chalk. Either way Sydney always good for goals at home snd very stingy on defense. CCM struggles for goals on the road. Will wake up tomorrow with a 4-0 win in the bag and start off the day right.
:cheers3:
 
Overnight markets were down. So lets see if we can do anything right today
Brighton -128
Lech Poznan -102
Werder Bremen/Bayer Leverkusen o2.75 (-155)

let's see how these do
:cheers3:
 
two easy winners on sides, but those fucking germans blew up the profits we banked, sending portfolio down a bit for the day.

Today is going to be busy for me but I'll try to poke in here and give my brethren some winners.
:cheers3:
 
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