Q1 2017 Dylanphan portfolio
- Thread starter dylanphan
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dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Strong night for the portfolio, and now I have to wait until after lunch to lose some more money.
Some quick thoughts as I will not have any plays until lineups probably and I've had some more time to think about how to lose my money in Europa League play
United had a decent enough result on a shit pitch in Russia, and come back to the comfy confines of OT. Team has been a cesspool really considering all the talent they have there, but they are riding a very long unbeaten streak in the league, rocketing them all the way up to 6th...from where they started in 6th, and other then the FA cup loss to the cunts after a dodgy sending off of Herrera, they simply are in every match. A 0-0 result will send them through, and considering the injuries/suspensions they are dealing with now, no reason to be overly confident in an open game here. Bet the under with two fists and be happy as a pig in shit when you see Fellaini, Carrick, Blind all starting. United going though because they really should win Europa league and Mourinho got a bit of a chip on his shoulder
Gent built themselves a mighty big hole losing what 5-2 at home in the first leg? Gent the better side in my eyes, but the gap not that large. No reason for the visitors to hold anything back here, I mean, they have to win like 4-0 to advance, so I'll be looking at betting a 1h over. If that don't hit, Genk gonna park the bus, the tank, the scooter, and everything else because even if they lose 3-0 they are through.
Besistkas also got themselves a decent enough result in the opening tie, so they are in a similar position as United. I can see this really being a chippy game. Rabid home fans going to want a result here. Both teams are sitting atop their league tables here, so although advancing in this league would be nice, really don't think if you asked the managers in private if they would be gutted to bow out here, neither would be that dire. That being said, it's home side or pass here, so a pass.
No opinion on Krasnador/Celta game, both teams are hard for me to get a read on to be honest. Was no surprise to see Celta win the first game, but Krasnador did get the roadie, and always tough to win in Russia.
Ajax a bit short here in my eyes in a game they need to win to advance. But Copenhagen no mugs either, this should be another spirited contest. I will more than likely be on Ajax here, but not a big stake by any means, just the price seems right at ~-120 or so, my initial read is Ajax shoulda been closer to -150
Anderlecht should smash APOEL here again. Got the road win, the road goal, I don't see APOEL getting a result at all. Of course this one gets tricky because of motivation, Anderlecht have no reason at all to open this game up, a win or the draw gets them through. So, playing the handicap here could be asking for big trouble, even if they get up 1-0 early, no reason for them to even push past halfway any more. Anderlecth pk's on parlays makes sense to me, but obviously there is not all that much value there either. Good game to avoid
Which leads to the two most interesting fixtures in my eyes, the two most likely for goals that is.
Schalke/G'lad bach to teams that probably expected to challenge for top 4 in Bundesliga this year, they are sitting 11th and 9th in the table with really no chance of reaching CL play next year (barring something completely unexpected in the run in). Save Wolfsburg, these may be two of the most disappointing teams that I can think of really. Now now, we get a massive game, with a 1-1 draw in the first tie. Gladbach should be happy enough getting the road goal, but these two teams no each other very well obviously, so I can't see much in the way of surprise. I believe both teams start their A squads and really go for it here. Either I would rate with an outside chance of winning the whole thing, but they need to move on first. With no reason for either sitting back, I will be on goals in 1h and for the game if the price suits me well enough. I expect 2-1, 2-2, btts - so you absolutely KNOW this one is ending at nil.
Lyon/Roma. Lyon been my second favorite team outside Monaco for goals. Goals in the 1H, goals for the game. And Roma never really a side to sit back, ESPECIALLY at home where they average almost 3gpg in league play, most in Serie A. Lyon coming off a nice 4-0 trouncing of Toulose (a team that allowed 1 goal in the previous 3 games, including a 0-0 draw vs PSG no less) and Lacazette didn't even start that one! Looks like no Memphis for the frenchies this game, but whatever, this game should be extremely high flying again, after getting 6 goals in the first tie. I mean, sometimes when it looks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, and it shits like a duck, well, it's a fucking duck, so I completely expect a similar game, and if Lyon can get at least 1 on the road, Roma will need to get 3, so I'm looking at 4, 5, 6 goals here again. We shall see
Back in a bit
:cheers3:
Some quick thoughts as I will not have any plays until lineups probably and I've had some more time to think about how to lose my money in Europa League play
United had a decent enough result on a shit pitch in Russia, and come back to the comfy confines of OT. Team has been a cesspool really considering all the talent they have there, but they are riding a very long unbeaten streak in the league, rocketing them all the way up to 6th...from where they started in 6th, and other then the FA cup loss to the cunts after a dodgy sending off of Herrera, they simply are in every match. A 0-0 result will send them through, and considering the injuries/suspensions they are dealing with now, no reason to be overly confident in an open game here. Bet the under with two fists and be happy as a pig in shit when you see Fellaini, Carrick, Blind all starting. United going though because they really should win Europa league and Mourinho got a bit of a chip on his shoulder
Gent built themselves a mighty big hole losing what 5-2 at home in the first leg? Gent the better side in my eyes, but the gap not that large. No reason for the visitors to hold anything back here, I mean, they have to win like 4-0 to advance, so I'll be looking at betting a 1h over. If that don't hit, Genk gonna park the bus, the tank, the scooter, and everything else because even if they lose 3-0 they are through.
Besistkas also got themselves a decent enough result in the opening tie, so they are in a similar position as United. I can see this really being a chippy game. Rabid home fans going to want a result here. Both teams are sitting atop their league tables here, so although advancing in this league would be nice, really don't think if you asked the managers in private if they would be gutted to bow out here, neither would be that dire. That being said, it's home side or pass here, so a pass.
No opinion on Krasnador/Celta game, both teams are hard for me to get a read on to be honest. Was no surprise to see Celta win the first game, but Krasnador did get the roadie, and always tough to win in Russia.
Ajax a bit short here in my eyes in a game they need to win to advance. But Copenhagen no mugs either, this should be another spirited contest. I will more than likely be on Ajax here, but not a big stake by any means, just the price seems right at ~-120 or so, my initial read is Ajax shoulda been closer to -150
Anderlecht should smash APOEL here again. Got the road win, the road goal, I don't see APOEL getting a result at all. Of course this one gets tricky because of motivation, Anderlecht have no reason at all to open this game up, a win or the draw gets them through. So, playing the handicap here could be asking for big trouble, even if they get up 1-0 early, no reason for them to even push past halfway any more. Anderlecth pk's on parlays makes sense to me, but obviously there is not all that much value there either. Good game to avoid
Which leads to the two most interesting fixtures in my eyes, the two most likely for goals that is.
Schalke/G'lad bach to teams that probably expected to challenge for top 4 in Bundesliga this year, they are sitting 11th and 9th in the table with really no chance of reaching CL play next year (barring something completely unexpected in the run in). Save Wolfsburg, these may be two of the most disappointing teams that I can think of really. Now now, we get a massive game, with a 1-1 draw in the first tie. Gladbach should be happy enough getting the road goal, but these two teams no each other very well obviously, so I can't see much in the way of surprise. I believe both teams start their A squads and really go for it here. Either I would rate with an outside chance of winning the whole thing, but they need to move on first. With no reason for either sitting back, I will be on goals in 1h and for the game if the price suits me well enough. I expect 2-1, 2-2, btts - so you absolutely KNOW this one is ending at nil.
Lyon/Roma. Lyon been my second favorite team outside Monaco for goals. Goals in the 1H, goals for the game. And Roma never really a side to sit back, ESPECIALLY at home where they average almost 3gpg in league play, most in Serie A. Lyon coming off a nice 4-0 trouncing of Toulose (a team that allowed 1 goal in the previous 3 games, including a 0-0 draw vs PSG no less) and Lacazette didn't even start that one! Looks like no Memphis for the frenchies this game, but whatever, this game should be extremely high flying again, after getting 6 goals in the first tie. I mean, sometimes when it looks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, and it shits like a duck, well, it's a fucking duck, so I completely expect a similar game, and if Lyon can get at least 1 on the road, Roma will need to get 3, so I'm looking at 4, 5, 6 goals here again. We shall see
Back in a bit
:cheers3:
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