Plays and thoughts

[M.W.]

Off my best season ever, with huge weeks 2, 3, 6, and 9, followed by big winners on props in the Super Bowl (KC to win by exactly 3) and NBA Finals (Boston to win game 6 by 16-20, I'm left with my biggest bankroll since 2007. We'll see whether this gives me momentum and confidence or makes me overconfident and careless.

 

[M.W.]

8/24

My plays:

2x - GT +14 -127, +12
1.5x - ML +389. +365, +340
1x - SMU -24.5
1x - SMU 1H -13.5
1x - UH -39 -116

Two angles on Tech:

1. Tech's new HC Key is the ultimate dog coach. In his 20 games, the dog is 13-7 straight up (with an average line of +15!) -- 4-2 when Tech is favored and 9-5 when Tech is the dog.

Tech is 6-0 SU when dogged by less than 13, and 3-5 as a larger dog including SU wins as +19, +21, and +21.5.

2. FSU ended last season with a disastrous 63-3 loss to Georgia the likes of which we hadn't seen since TCU ended the previous season with a 65-7 loss to Georgia.

Last year TCU followed up with a loss to Colorado in the opener as 21-point favorites. I also recalled Clemson losing 45-0 to UNC in the 1996 opener after losing 41-0 to Syracuse in the prior season's bowl game. I did some research and found that teams that lost a bowl or playoff by 40+ to end one season are just 5-17 ATS in the next season's opener, and just 1-11 ATS if laying 4 or more points.

Thats enough for me.

 

[M.W.]

Week 1 plays, some of which I have bet and some of which I am waiting to play:

UK
VPI
Georgia State
ODU
UGA/Clem under
Iowa/Ill St under
Minn
UNLV
TCU/Stan under
Ohio St
WVU & under
UF
Ala
UNM/Ariz under
Fla St

Considering:

Okla (I have a note to play OU but can't find the reason for my decision)
Elon (line not out)
Ohio (strong general angles supporting Ohio, but Albin generally tanks the early non-con games -- 0-4 as a favorite, 0-3 as a DD dog, and 3-2 as a single-digit dog)

 

[HUNT]

Week 1 plays, some of which I have bet and some of which I am waiting to play:

UK
VPI
Georgia State
ODU
UGA/Clem under
Iowa/Ill St under
Minn
UNLV
TCU/Stan under
Ohio St
WVU & under
UF
Ala
UNM/Ariz under
Fla St

Considering:

Okla (I have a note to play OU but can't find the reason for my decision)
Elon (line not out)
Ohio (strong general angles supporting Ohio, but Albin generally tanks the early non-con games -- 0-4 as a favorite, 0-3 as a DD dog, and 3-2 as a single-digit dog)

Have a year MW

 

[M.W.]

Have a year MW

Thank you, Hunt. I'm going to try.

 

[HUNT]

Thank you, Hunt. I'm going to try.

You will brother. Positive thoughts coming your way.

 

[B.A.R.]

Let's go!

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Very good points about tomorrow‘s game. Also on Tech, let‘s go

 

[Inspekdah]

Great start.

See SMU the same, too

 

[M.W.]

SMU and Hawaii were obviously the wrong side and I gave back 40% of what I won on Tech.

The line move against FSU is an overreaction. I am on FSU -15 this week.

 

[Timh]

MW BOL on the season!

 

[jimmymo]

Okla (I have a note to play OU but can't find the reason for my decision)

Will make a prediction here -- if you give Temple 7 points for every time they get inside the OU 40 yl, the Sooners will still cover a 30 point spread. Laid OU and 42 here and not looking back

Good luck MW, have a year...

 

[M.W.]

Will make a prediction here -- if you give Temple 7 points for every time they get inside the OU 40 yl, the Sooners will still cover a 30 point spread. Laid OU and 42 here and not looking back

Good luck MW, have a year...

Thanks. I found the angles, and came up with some new and better ones as well. I'm on OU, over, and OU 1H. Will be one of my biggest bets week 1. Also parlayed OU with FAU, WMU, and Stanford/TCU under on the Friday night card. There's no particular reason it should be 73-0 like last year's opener, but they can come up 30 points short of that and get the money.

And for what it's worth, all my angles supporting an OU play also support a play on Ohio State and the over in that game.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks. I found the angles, and came up with some new and better ones as well. I'm on OU, over, and OU 1H. Will be one of my biggest bets week 1. Also parlayed OU with FAU, WMU, and Stanford/TCU under on the Friday night card. There's no particular reason it should be 73-0 like last year's opener, but they can come up 30 points short of that and get the money.

And for what it's worth, all my angles supporting an OU play also support a play on Ohio State and the over in that game.