Playoffs

[mrpickem]

It's a new season

MIL rolls in one of the hottest teams going after going 20-7 in Sept as the only team with that many wins, also they are 11-4 in last 15 road games. With Woodruff on the hill, brewcrew has went 18-4 this year, but he has only had two 2inn starts since returning after missing nearly two months with an oblique injury. It's hard to see him going over 4inn and as good as the MIL pen is, I just dont think there's enough dept here to keep this one under.

Max has not been a winner in the playoffs over his career as his teams have gone 3-10 in his starts, so definitely has something to prove. He has looked good in last 2 starts with 21K vs only 1 BB although SL touched him up for 5ER... after coming back from nagging back and shoulder issues. Nats only 14-13 when Max started this year.

If Max can go 8 or 9 inn the Nats will probably cruise, but that's a big if...should be a fun game. I'm gonna roll with total/prop and stay away from the side although I have a small lean to the Brewers

Day One 2019 Playoffs ~ Record 0-0 10/1/2019 8:05 7004 MIL/WAS no score 1st inn -115 vs MIL/WAS score 1st inn yes 1.38/1.2 10/1/2019 8:05 911 Milwaukee Brewers/Washington Nationals Over 7½ -112 B Woodruff - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed 1.68/1.5

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[B.A.R.]

Like that 1st inning bet

GL

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing the line angle seems to work in playoffs too...17% ROI since 2013 but only 38 game sample

18-6 last 3 years in postseason

Siding with A's tomorrow at current price

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[mrpickem]

Adding​
	911 Milwaukee Brewers* +1½ -140 vs Washington Nationals B Woodruff - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed 2.1/1.5

 

[mrpickem]

​	[1-2 -1.56U]​
	10/2/2019 8:10 PM 913 Tampa Bay Rays +123 vs Oakland Athletics C Morton - R Listed S Manaea - L Listed 2/2.46

TB wont be at all phased playing on the road. They have been one of those teams that play hard and arguably on the same level as the NYY, LAD, and HOU. They are soft in offense but it is amazing how efficient their bullpen is and they really show how important the bullpen is in the modern era... it’s hard to talk about bullpen when you have two great pitchers in Manaea and Morton. I expect these guys to go the full 6 or 7 because they don’t have to get pinch hit out. A’s are a home run team but Charlie Morton does a good job of avoiding long balls and has only given up 4 hr’s to righties all year which is nice to hear. One thing that worries me is that Morton was way noticeably better pre all star break and has been slumping a little bit... he was good in September so I don’t think we will see a shaky start like we did with Max. Manaea will cause the rays to bench some of their key lefties like Choi, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe. It’s alright as they have righties and can use those guys as pinch hitters. I'm also liking the under a lot here. I might even parlay TB and the full game under, F5 under may hit but I have seen more value in the full game unders with the expanded bullpens... We are going to see a real competitive match because both these teams are low payroll teams who want to prove their worth and fight for that generational wealth contract... One of the reasons why I like the Rays is because the A’s are banged up from what I hear and it makes sense. The A’s play a very physical defense and dive a lot and do before they think. Guys like Semien, Chapman, Profar, are likely to be worn down and their performance will suffer cause of that. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that the A’s will make an unlikely infield error that will change the game... Their young tired team ain’t ready... Just as confident in the under though because it is a pitchers park with two great pitchers, two of the worst offenses in the “playoffs”, will have to double check that the wind isn’t blowing out and who the umpires are before I bet on the o/u though...

 

[mrpickem]

Model had Nats right and picking OAK, but no value

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[mrpickem]

In the playoffs favorites less than 150 facing a starter off a quality start only win 45% over the last 7 years...take dog for 17% ROI (In history of SDQL the favs are 71-74 with dogs returning 10.2% ROI) I always believe the last 7 years is a relevant sample size,

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[mrpickem]

Chasing the line has no results for today, but strange happening on the total chase

Chasing the total...Under playoff version indicates OAK tonight

This was money all year(except Sept) on under but the history shows it goes over 55% in the playoffs over the last 7 years. I really dont believe this is relevant data because sample is so small.

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[mrpickem]

Looks like a light wind out to R/ R/C and total dropped to 7 so I probably wont be on it

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[mrpickem]

​	Adding FF and a couple futures​
	10/2/2019 8:10 PM 913 Tampa Bay Rays* +½ -135 vs Oakland Athletics for 1st 5 Innings C Morton - R Listed S Manaea - L Listed 1.35/1 MLB Baseball American League Pennant : Houston Astros +100 1.5/1.5 MLB Baseball World Series matchup : Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros +274 1/2.74

I'm likely taking Twinks series too but waiting on reduced juice

 

[mrpickem]

Should have went ahead with under play as both pens were lights out, but can't really complain after 2-0 +3.46u

​	2019 Playoffs ~ [3-2 +1.9]​
	915 St. Louis Cardinals +127 vs Atlanta Braves M Mikolas - R Listed D Keuchel - L Listed 1.4/1.78 918 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +135 vs Washington Nationals P Corbin - L Listed W Buehler - R Listed 1/1.35 918 Los Angeles Dodgers -161 vs Washington Nationals P Corbin - L Listed W Buehler - R Listed 1/.62

Playoff favorites of 160 or more after starter lost last time he faced opp are 21-6 over 7 years

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Over last 20 games:
LAD has best pitching, fielding and efficiency of teams going today. NYY has best offense and power.

RPG -	o:RPG​	HR -	o:HR	Errors	Hits p/Run	LOB	query
5.15​	3.00	1.40	0.80	0.35​	1.81​	13.70	Dodgers
4.85​	3.90	1.65	1.25	0.80​	2.49​	15.50	Cardinals
6.30​	4.10	2.10	1.05	0.55​	1.99​	13.75	Yankees
5.40​	4.70	1.65	1.20	0.35​	1.97​	12.60	Twins

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[mrpickem]

Also considering Under 5 FF in ATL. In Keuchel’s 9 career postseason starts those games have gone under 5 runs F5 7 times with one push. Also since last years playoffs in games where pitchers made their first career postseason start (9 games, twice those pitchers faced each other) the under went 6-3, including 4-1 when the pitcher making that first start is the away pitcher.

Still a few more factors to examine

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[mrpickem]

Model was wrong on A's and now 1-1

Boring selections of both favorites today

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[mrpickem]

Playoff games with totals of 6-7 have went over 55.8% in the history of SDQL (16 years)

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But more relevant imo is the last 7 years where the over has cashed 57.3% for 8.5% ROI

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I'm seeing LAD total at 7 although it's still 7.5 on SDQL

 

[mrpickem]

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[VirginiaCavs]

Great call brother you nailed it

 

[mrpickem]

Guess I could have cashed the FF under in ATL but didn't play...still 3-0 on night is OK

​

2019 Playoffs ~ [6-2 +5.65]​

920 Atlanta Braves +116 vs St. Louis Cardinals J Flaherty - R Listed M Foltynewicz - R Listed 1/1.16 926 Houston Astros -1½ +100 vs Tampa Bay Rays T Glasnow - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 1.5/1.5 10/4/2019 2:05 PM Reduced Baseball 926 Houston Astros -210 vs Tampa Bay Rays T Glasnow - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 1.05/.5 10/4/2019 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 1805 Minnesota Twins (Series) +195 .8/1.56

4 starters make their first postseason start today. JV is only one that has been profitable at 14-10 +1.9u
Folty is 0-2 in playoffs while Flaherty had one of the best 2nd half performances in NL history, therefor creating brave value...not for the faint of heart. I believe Rays are more dangerous than we want to believe, but stros are just too damn dominant

Starters Today Playoff Record

Team	Starter	W-	L	Avg Margin	On
Astros	Justin Verlander	14	10	0.67​	192.0
Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	13	11	0.25​	-290.0
Nationals	Stephen Strasburg	1	2	0.33​	-232.0
Braves	Mike Foltynewicz	0	2	-5.0​	-200.0
Cardinals	Jack Flaherty	-	-	-​	0.0
Rays	Tyler Glasnow	-	-	-​	0.0
Twins	Jose Berrios	-	-	-​	0.0
Yankees	James Paxton	-	-	-​	0.0

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[mrpickem]

I just dont see any scenario where Twins win a low scoring game, if they win it's likely be a sluggfest with two teams that both broke the single season HR record with 307 and 306 respectively. So as much as I hate parlays, this is a rare situation that I will throw a half at one at better than 4-1 odds

​	Parlay​
	10/4/2019 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Minnesota Twins* +175 vs New York Yankees J Berrios - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed 10/4/2019 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees* Over 9 +104 J Berrios - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed .5/2.3

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[mrpickem]

Model still selects all favs but suggest both NYY & HOU are way overpriced and even lends fade value.

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[mrpickem]

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Will be balls hot again today in ATL and to a lesser degree in HOU

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[mrpickem]

randoms...
Verlander’s on the mound, Stros are best team in baseball and TB offense is still mediocre (good game against the As though). Stros will put up runs. I will be shocked if they don’t win this game. Only advantage for Rays is in the pen as they are very solid and deep but HOU offense can score on anyone

Ball will be jumping at Yankee stadium. I’m not convinced of Paxton as an “ace” yet. He gets himself in trouble and often gives up runs in the first inning. Berrios is a solid fastball pitcher but gives up a lot of homers. Both pens are shaky and cracks were definitely showing for the Yankees towards the end of the season. Both of these teams will be cranking balls to the little league right field.

Strasburg has been pitching well and the difference between regular/postseason Kershaw is widely known. I just think the Nats offense looks awfully out of sorts. Their runs come in bunches and I don’t think the Dodger’s game plan will allow for much damage to be done. Dodgers will have no problem putting up runs once Strasburg is off the mound. Gotta ride the team that’s hot all season at home here. Another sad part for WAS is their bullpen eventually will have to throw the ball. Strickland, Rainey, and co will get ran over as usual and the Nats will be left scratching their head going back to DC down 0-2

Bravos done fucked up yesterday. The Berds have the braves entire pitching staff figured out. SL starting pitching is better, they’re more experienced, they have a better lineup 1-9 and they are getting hot at the right time. Flaherty is a young stud too. I think the cardinals may steal another one today, but more a hunch than anything I'm taking ATL. Also feeling pretty good about over 8.5 here as well. Both teams went to their pens early yesterday, especially the Braves, thinking we could end up with a lot of runs here. Flaherty could possibly derail that plan with 6 or 7 shutout inning, but I will likely test it.

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[mrpickem]

​	More adds...​
	10/4/2019 2:05 PM Props Baseball 5004 TAM/HOU no score 1st inn -150 1.2/.8 10/4/2019 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees Over 8½ -115 J Berrios - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed 1.38/1.2

 

[mrpickem]

1 more​
	10/4/2019 2:05 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Tampa Bay Rays/Houston Astros Under 7½ -115 T Glasnow - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 1.38/1.2

 

[mrpickem]

​	Not sure why I dint add this one earlier​
	922 Los Angeles Dodgers -151 vs Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R Listed C Kershaw - L Listed 2.11/1.4

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[mrpickem]

View attachment 43396Lost the under in HOU late, but otherwise most games were never really in doubt. Twins hung around for awhile, but their lack of pitching was really telling on them. Kershaw another postseason loss...amazing how different his results have been in the playoffs.

However, I can't complain after a 5-2 day plus 1.67u. I did lose a half on a parlay and I dont include parlays in my record because I know better.

​	2019 Playoffs ~ [11-4 +7.31]​
	10/5/2019 9:37 PM MLB Baseball 954 Houston Astros -265 vs Tampa Bay Rays for 1st 5 Innings B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 2.12/.8 10/5/2019 9:37 PM Reduced Baseball 954 Houston Astros -295 vs Tampa Bay Rays B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.77/.6 10/5/2019 9:37 PM Reduced Baseball 953 Tampa Bay Rays/Houston Astros Under 7½ -115 B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.15/1

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Whatever it takes

​

 

[tuck321]

Snell is playing about 2 innings a game and has an ERA 4.17 at night and with this ump has an ERA of 4.17 lifetime and this year with this ump 6.97 with a sample size of slightly over 10 innings Why no run line
?

 

[mrpickem]

Snell is playing about 2 innings a game and has an ERA 4.17 at night and with this ump has an ERA of 4.17 lifetime and this year with this ump 6.97 with a sample size of slightly over 10 innings Why no run line
?

May still add RL, but thinking its very low scoring...like 3-2, 4-2 but could easily be 5-0

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing the line went 7-3 last year and has 16% ROI over 7 years with limited sample

Astros indicated today

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[mrpickem]

​	Adding...​
	951 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees* Over 9 -105 R Dobnak - R Listed M Tanaka - R Listed 1.47/1.4 952 New York Yankees* -1½ +105 vs Minnesota Twins R Dobnak - R Listed M Tanaka - R Listed 1/1.05

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[mrpickem]

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fwiw, yanks are 13-2 at home vs twinks L4 years and 11-1 L12

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[T-Rex]

​	[1-2 -1.56U]​
	10/2/2019 8:10 PM 913 Tampa Bay Rays +123 vs Oakland Athletics C Morton - R Listed S Manaea - L Listed 2/2.46

TB wont be at all phased playing on the road. They have been one of those teams that play hard and arguably on the same level as the NYY, LAD, and HOU. They are soft in offense but it is amazing how efficient their bullpen is and they really show how important the bullpen is in the modern era... it’s hard to talk about bullpen when you have two great pitchers in Manaea and Morton. I expect these guys to go the full 6 or 7 because they don’t have to get pinch hit out. A’s are a home run team but Charlie Morton does a good job of avoiding long balls and has only given up 4 hr’s to righties all year which is nice to hear. One thing that worries me is that Morton was way noticeably better pre all star break and has been slumping a little bit... he was good in September so I don’t think we will see a shaky start like we did with Max. Manaea will cause the rays to bench some of their key lefties like Choi, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe. It’s alright as they have righties and can use those guys as pinch hitters. I'm also liking the under a lot here. I might even parlay TB and the full game under, F5 under may hit but I have seen more value in the full game unders with the expanded bullpens... We are going to see a real competitive match because both these teams are low payroll teams who want to prove their worth and fight for that generational wealth contract... One of the reasons why I like the Rays is because the A’s are banged up from what I hear and it makes sense. The A’s play a very physical defense and dive a lot and do before they think. Guys like Semien, Chapman, Profar, are likely to be worn down and their performance will suffer cause of that. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that the A’s will make an unlikely infield error that will change the game... Their young tired team ain’t ready... Just as confident in the under though because it is a pitchers park with two great pitchers, two of the worst offenses in the “playoffs”, will have to double check that the wind isn’t blowing out and who the umpires are before I bet on the o/u t

View attachment 43396Lost the under in HOU late, but otherwise most games were never really in doubt. Twins hung around for awhile, but their lack of pitching was really telling on them. Kershaw another postseason loss...amazing how different his results have been in the playoffs.

However, I can't complain after a 5-2 day plus 1.67u. I did lose a half on a parlay and I dont include parlays in my record because I know better.

​	2019 Playoffs ~ [11-4 +7.31]​
	10/5/2019 9:37 PM MLB Baseball 954 Houston Astros -265 vs Tampa Bay Rays for 1st 5 Innings B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 2.12/.8 10/5/2019 9:37 PM Reduced Baseball 954 Houston Astros -295 vs Tampa Bay Rays B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.77/.6 10/5/2019 9:37 PM Reduced Baseball 953 Tampa Bay Rays/Houston Astros Under 7½ -115 B Snell - L Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.15/1

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Whatever it takes

​

Gimme the link to the chick in the blue top..... ASAP! Haha

 

[mrpickem]

Her name is halle diez but she deleted her instagram for some reason

there's a few of her pics here

 

[mrpickem]

5-0 yesterday but that's not that tough when you riding the big favs...still 4.7u on the day is nice

​	2019 Playoffs ~ [16-4 +12.17]​
	957 Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 -115 M Soroka - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed 1.45/1.26 958 St. Louis Cardinals +110 vs Atlanta Braves M Soroka - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed 1.4/1.54

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I'm really wanting to take the Nats today, but Max has been pretty bad in postseason and Ryu is 8-0 on Sunday and a damn fine pitcher in his own right. Just think WAS has renewed confidence after beating Kersh on Friday. Still doyers lineup is better top to bottom..will have to marinate on this awhile... The berds are the easy pick though.

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[tuck321]

Probably with you on Wainwright. Good history with ump and great in the day with the ump
Plus worthy opponent not too good on 5
incorrect 6 days rest looks close to a draw

 

[mrpickem]

adding​
	10/6/2019 7:45 PM Reduced Baseball 955 Los Angeles Dodgers* -159 vs Washington Nationals H Ryu - L Listed A Sanchez - R Listed 3.98/2.5

 

[tuck321]

Similar

 

[mrpickem]

2019 Playoffs ~ [17-6 +11.82]
C-Mart blows in big game pressure situations :doggie:

• 906 Tampa Bay Rays +1½ -125
• 906 Tampa Bay Rays +137
• 905 Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½ +105

HOU has won 7 straight day games and 18-5 last 3 months
TB has lost 5 straight day games but 8-4 previous 12 before that (Morton has won 4 straight day games)
In day games this year: Morton 9-4 / Greinke 7-6

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​

 

[tuck321]

Does this indicate you are betting Minn today

 

[mrpickem]

Does this indicate you are betting Minn today

Yes I am most likely...not sure how you got that out of my post though..lol

Cards too

 

[mrpickem]

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Doyers will be hard to avoid as doggies...
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[mrpickem]

I'm at it again :rofl:

1. 901 Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals* Over 8 -110
   D Keuchel - L Listed D Hudson - R Listed
   1.1/1
2. 10/7/2019 3:05 PM Reduced Baseball 902 St. Louis Cardinals* -117 vs Atlanta Braves
   D Keuchel - L Listed D Hudson - R Listed
   1.64/1.4
3. 10/7/2019 6:40 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Los Angeles Dodgers* +122 vs Washington Nationals
   R Hill - L Listed M Scherzer - R Listed
   1.5/1.83
4. 10/7/2019 3:05 PM Reduced Baseball 902 St. Louis Cardinals* -½ +115
   D Keuchel - L Listed D Hudson - R Listed
   .8/.92

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[mrpickem]

Home teams in playoffs with total under 9 and tight line(within 40 cent of zero) are very profitable on RL over last 7 years. 22% ROI and even over 9% ROI playing ML

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Logic is when you have 2 good pitchers, guy at home has slight advantage and line generally slanted

That said, I can't get behind Nats

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing the line has been very profitable in the playoffs but hard to find a qualifier..none today
1-0 this year
7-3 in 2018
6-2 in 2017

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[mrpickem]

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Chasing totals a lot less predictable based on lines.

The under chase actually shows profit betting over last 7 years. However has hit 4 of last 5 and 5-3 since last year. I can get behind the under in DC for other reasons, so we'll see.

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[mrpickem]

One last thing. In the postseason, dogs up to +160 have done very well. Winning 52% at avg +121 for 15.4% ROI over the last 7 years. Also a remarkable 16-9 SU since last year

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Better on the road but profitable either way
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[mrpickem]

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[mrpickem]

​	Since the number has improved I'm adding a little on St Loo​
	902 St. Louis Cardinals* -108 vs Atlanta Braves D Keuchel - L Listed D Hudson - R Listed .54/.5 902 St. Louis Cardinals* -½ +130 vs Atlanta Braves for 1st 5 Innings D Keuchel - L Listed D Hudson - R Listed .4/.52

 

[mrpickem]

adding...​
	908 Minnesota Twins* +132 vs New York Yankees L Severino - R Listed J Odorizzi - R Listed 1.25/1.65

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[wiseplayer]

I love women

 

[mrpickem]

​	2019 Playoffs ~ [21-11 +11.81]​
	909 Houston Astros -1½ -135 vs Tampa Bay Rays J Verlander - R Listed D Castillo - R Listed 1.35/1 909 Houston Astros -235 vs Tampa Bay Rays J Verlander - R Listed D Castillo - R Listed 1.88/.8

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Boring selection today, but not sure how you go any other way. I am staying true to form conservative. I may find a reason for a total side before game time, but right now I'm on the ledge.

4-4 yesterday and would have made .79u but my MIN series lost .8 so that's that. Twins 16 straight postseason losses is an unfathomable record that will likely never be challenged.

https://www.reddit.com/r/kateupton/comments/ddf9ke