Playoffs in the FCS

Have a group of 3 at <200, but considering going for 6 which would mean 4-2 needed to secure profit.

Have UCD, Lehigh and Mercer MLs all <200 so far.

Considering adding Yale 31.5 alt, Montana ML and Tarleton ML to card if I can get all 3 for <200.

Thoughts?
 
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carolinablue said:
Have a group of 3 at <200, but considering going for 6 which would mean 4-2 needed to secure profit.

Have UCD, Lehigh and Mercer MLs all <200 so far.

Considering adding Yale 31.5 alt, Montana ML and Tarleton ML to card if I can get all 3 for <200.

Thoughts?
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It's a tough day because like we said so many games appear like they are going to be competitive. I have played UCD ML, but am interested in a URI line that I think might come later. I have played Nova+ small, but have come to think LH ML is better. I have Mercer ML, but am trying to middle with USD + (Duck just gave out USD outright on TV). I have Montana ML but it's a tight one and I also have some Tarleton ML.

What about a ML round robin? If you are playing 6 MLs...it would protect you on the downside if some of these road dogs end up finding wins you won't lose as much if you end up 3-3 on the round robin as you would if you played them all individually.
 
s--k said:
It's a tough day because like we said so many games appear like they are going to be competitive. I have played UCD ML, but am interested in a URI line that I think might come later. I have played Nova+ small, but have come to think LH ML is better. I have Mercer ML, but am trying to middle with USD + (Duck just gave out USD outright on TV). I have Montana ML but it's a tight one and I also have some Tarleton ML.

What about a ML round robin? If you are playing 6 MLs...it would protect you on the downside if some of these road dogs end up finding wins you won't lose as much if you end up 3-3 on the round robin as you would if you played them all individually.
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Playing across FD and BM based on line favorability
 
Lehigh had gone Under 6 straight before the Lafayette game. Their D is lights out, but it has come vs weak Patriot League Os and a Yale team that was still finding their footing in their second game of the year (and Reno's second ever start). LH D allowed just 269ypg in their first 11 games. Vs Lafayette they allowed 424! The 149y LH run D allowed was a ssn high, but the 3.2ypc was in line with many of their other games and that was below Lafayette ssn avg and significantly below what their recent avg was coming in.

That is what they are going to have to do vs Villanova limit that run. McQuaide and Nova passing game has been good, but it's not their primary strength. Villanova rush O can be slowed. Game #1 Colgate did it (Colgate had already played a game), Elon did it, Albany did it, and Stony Brook did it. Nova still won each of those games because of some combination of McQuiade picked up the passing game or special teams made plays.

LH passing D will give up some yards and completions (Laf, Penn and Yale in the 2H had success on them), but LH does not give up big plays through the air much.

Really great matchup. These two will be conference opponents next year. Kind of like how LH played and beat Richmond in last year's playoffs and then played them as a conference opponent this year. Nova to Patriot next season.
 
Also considering North Dakota 9.5 alt as that may make more sense than Tarleton ml given both are basically same price
 
Late morning, Bovada doesn't always move lines, they typically keep a stale line but move the juice accordingly. I was just about to put ACU in a 10 pt teaser as they still had +4.5 and I leave the screen and go back and they took it to 3
 
How about PV - Jackson SWAC Championship? I have not considered that game yet
 
s--k said:
How about PV - Jackson SWAC Championship? I have not considered that game yet
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PV is 4-0 ATS as dogs this year (3 earlier in the season before PRs adjusted to the fact they were much better than last year with new coach). Were +8.5 home vs ASU and nearly won (+103 ttl yards but -3 TO ratio and missed FG in 3 pt loss). They are dominating other SWAC teams just like you would expect from a SWAC title participant, outgaining league foes 459-247

Jackson has only been a single digit favorite once this year -8.5 vs ASU in a classic with a final mintue go-ahead TD for JSU and a goal line stand on the final play of the game. 38-34. ASU outgained them 514-448. Only FCS game Jackson was outgained this year until Alcorn outgained them by 11y in finale (think JSU cruised in the 2H of that one). JSU outgaining SWAC foes 498-331

Jackson has won 3 of the last 4 SWAC titles, but PV has been here (under a different coach) twice recently (lost '21 & '23).

Jackson rolled Southern in the 2H last year, but think this PV team is more dominent in league play than Southern was last year.

Think PV plus over a TD is worth a shot. Statisically these teams rank very very close in just about every category. Jackson has just been here done that before, only difference. Think Morgan is still out, backup Jackson QB has been fine. Peters is normally good for PV. Since throwing 4 INTs vs ASU, he has a 9-0 ratio.

I'll try PV with some pts.
 
Josh picked the under based on both trans wanting to run and both teams having solid D.

Based on this I could see a play on the dog if points will be at a premium. Gonna check weather…
 
s--k said:
PV is 4-0 ATS as dogs this year (3 earlier in the season before PRs adjusted to the fact they were much better than last year with new coach). Were +8.5 home vs ASU and nearly won (+103 ttl yards but -3 TO ratio and missed FG in 3 pt loss). They are dominating other SWAC teams just like you would expect from a SWAC title participant, outgaining league foes 459-247

Jackson has only been a single digit favorite once this year -8.5 vs ASU in a classic with a final mintue go-ahead TD for JSU and a goal line stand on the final play of the game. 38-34. ASU outgained them 514-448. Only FCS game Jackson was outgained this year until Alcorn outgained them by 11y in finale (think JSU cruised in the 2H of that one). JSU outgaining SWAC foes 498-331

Jackson has won 3 of the last 4 SWAC titles, but PV has been here (under a different coach) twice recently (lost '21 & '23).

Jackson rolled Southern in the 2H last year, but think this PV team is more dominent in league play than Southern was last year.

Think PV plus over a TD is worth a shot. Statisically these teams rank very very close in just about every category. Jackson has just been here done that before, only difference. Think Morgan is still out, backup Jackson QB has been fine. Peters is normally good for PV. Since throwing 4 INTs vs ASU, he has a 9-0 ratio.

I'll try PV with some pts.
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Leaning that way as well as it may be a better play than Tarleton or Montana when I think about it. Of course if those two win and prairie view gets blown out, I will bang my head against the wall haha
 
Interesting the 1H variance on the SWAC game. Hardrock 4.5 -115, FD 5.5 -113 and DK 6.5 -120 (although DK will only let me put 29.98 on it)
 
s--k said:
Do you like Bet365? I am always on the look out to add more FCS books to the list.
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I've used 365 as one of my outs for years. They're far from perfect but they don't cut many people off. Lifetime I am up on them into 5 figures and they will still let me bet up to $1500 on a CFL game. They took away parlays and teasers from me but that's about it.

Compared to FD where my limits on everything are <$50 and DK which limited me to <$10, 365 is a worthwhile out to have in your arsenal. Especially if you don't have access to pinnacle.
 
I have not given one thought to the Illinois State - NDSU game. Illinois State is black for me, I probably won one game on or against them this year (won YSU if memory serves and I'd guess I lost maybe 5 or 6 other bets involving them). I assume it would be NDSU, but the spread doesn't make it very appealing.
 
Narrative on NDSU in October and early November was "they are slow starters" as they had a run of 6 games where they only outscored opponents on average in the 1H 14.3 - 10. Then the last 2 games (UNI and St Thomas) they were up 76 - 2 combined in the 1H of those games.
 
Hulu said:
I've used 365 as one of my outs for years. They're far from perfect but they don't cut many people off. Lifetime I am up on them into 5 figures and they will still let me bet up to $1500 on a CFL game. They took away parlays and teasers from me but that's about it.

Compared to FD where my limits on everything are <$50 and DK which limited me to <$10, 365 is a worthwhile out to have in your arsenal. Especially if you don't have access to pinnacle.
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It’s so weird because FD and BM are the only two that haven’t cut me but 365 did pretty early, probably the first year we got em here in NC, similar timing as fanatics here. Makes my head spin trying to figure out all the rationale sometimes.
 
s--k said:
I have not given one thought to the Illinois State - NDSU game. Illinois State is black for me, I probably won one game on or against them this year (won YSU if memory serves and I'd guess I lost maybe 5 or 6 other bets involving them). I assume it would be NDSU, but the spread doesn't make it very appealing.
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I took this at open as I see it as a 52-17 or 45-13 type game. Just don’t see this as a good matchup for Illinois State at all as NDSU can be off and still put up 41+ in this one while I don’t see a path to more than 17 for ISU.
 
2daBank said:
Those pussies cut me to $10 limit like 3mlb seasons ago, then I cussed someone out and they banned me completely from Sportsbook and fantasy 😂
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So funny, I can hear and picture you bitching at them and getting banned.
 
s--k said:
So funny, I can hear and picture you bitching at them and getting banned.
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Just to be a asshole now that they legal in Missouri I’m opening a account in my girls name to get the $300 in bonuses, gonna flip that shit and cash no matter what the number is just cause fuck them 😎😁
 
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