Playoffs in the FCS

carolinablue said:
If I can get 7 with South Dakota I may take a shot but not sure yet
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I have Mercer ML but took alt USD +7.5. There are things I like about both teams and as long as the Fr Mercer QB plays like he has all season I think Mercer wins, but USD should be in the game.
 
carolinablue said:
Was gonna wait on qb status with ND as I don’t mind the backup since he’s a former starter, but patience might get me 7+ in that one. If it goes the other way then I’ll sit it out.
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The way Kaminski has played lately it might not be a big drop off to Romfo. I personally will not bet on this UND O, but their D definitely could make the game interesting. While I did try and middle the Mercer - USD game, I am only on the Tarleton ML here.
 
s--k said:
I have Mercer ML but took alt USD +7.5. There are things I like about both teams and as long as the Fr Mercer QB plays like he has all season I think Mercer wins, but USD should be in the game.
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Was hoping to get Mercer <200 but never got the opp as I like to play ML favs <200 in groups of 3 if possible to secure profit at 2-1. I see SD out there at 7.5 154 so may end up taking that in the end. Will wait til kickoff on most of these to see how the lines move in the end.
 
s--k said:
The way Kaminski has played lately it might not be a big drop off to Romfo. I personally will not bet on this UND O, but their D definitely could make the game interesting. While I did try and middle the Mercer - USD game, I am only on the Tarleton ML here.
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This is another of my ML <200 batch but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Also considered over.
 
steponaduck said:
guys. im telling you. Its whoever is in this thread, me, brad powers and another guy from Covers dot com, who play these early openers. and maybe 10 other guys in america. no one else...
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My limits at FD haven’t really been touched…I just kind of started this year with y'all on FCS. Always kinda followed it a little just by virtue of where I live. Just picked and popped but I plan on full blast next year
 
Any thoughts on dance partners to go with UCD to fill out my “groups of 3 MLs < 200” card?

Need 2 more so current decision is between Tarleton 192, Lehigh 192, Montana 194, SFA 170.

Note I already have UCD 196 and Mercer won’t be an option unless it drops below 200.

Appreciate any input you guys can give thanks!
 
Yale now 28 111 at BM…My only fear is coming off that crazy win and playing with house money will either mean they keep the magic going and make a game of it or they get blown out by 40+. Part of me thinks the latter is more likely but who knows.
 
carolinablue said:
Any thoughts on dance partners to go with UCD to fill out my “groups of 3 MLs < 200” card?

Need 2 more so current decision is between Tarleton 192, Lehigh 192, Montana 194, SFA 170.

Note I already have UCD 196 and Mercer won’t be an option unless it drops below 200.

Appreciate any input you guys can give thanks!
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Last 4 years Second Round
Home Teams: 30-2 straight up (93.7%), ATS 20-12 (62.5%)
Home Favorites: 29-1 straight up (96.6%), 18-12 ATS (60%)
Home Dogs: 1-1 straight up (50%), 2-0 ATS (100%)

Based on the last 4 years, this round has the highest win % of any round for home teams and home favorites. Those trends certainly support all the home teams to take care of business this week, however, these games in this round this year - except for the 2 large spreads, the other 6 feel like they are going to be good games that could go either way.

The road teams this week/year all seem like they have a chance. So I am personally hedging a few of them, like USD+ and Mercer ML. I did take the UCD ML, but am waiting for that line to move as I think people will bet UCD as game approaches and I'm willing to take URI. I have Tarleton ML, but would I be shocked if UND wins? It depends how they win exactly, but I wouldn't be completely shocked. I lean Montana, but can SDSU win - sure. I took a little Villanova +pts, but I am reconsidering and might come back on the Lehigh ML. Not any good advice there, just I think these games are going to be good and are difficult to be real confident in.

Where is your Montana price coming from? They should be in the 170s. I am going to end up having Montana ML. Talking about it beforehand the game feels like a coinflip and momentum is on SDSU's side. But ultimately I am going to fall back on the belief that the offense and defense that this team showed in the middle part of the season (before Mason was injured) just is not going to be good enough and to an extent, I think some people have forgotten that this SDSU team was fairly questionable before Mason got hurt and then some of us, me included, are just kind of skipping over the losing streak without Mason and then now he's back and they roll one of the weakest playoff teams at home in weather that suited them well and a lot of people are just like "Jacks are back". I don't think they are actually as good as people think they are right now when peeling some layers back. Maybe I'm hung up on weeks 6, 7 and 8 too much. SDSU is expecting an OL back and a LB I believe. But speculation that Montana is getting one of if not their top CB back who has missed all of October and November (Loud).

I like all the home favorites to win, but am also expecting competitive games in most.

With one exception, I think SFA is the home team I would put as most likely to lose. I love their D and think their D is better than their O. They don't seem like a difficult O to matchup against and limit. And the ACU did is pretty good themselves, maybe not as statiscially good as SFA (because SFA has been bully vs weak SLC). ACU's D shut downt he SFA O in their first game week 2. And I think ACU has the better QB. So if I was considering a home fav ML, I would personally cross SFA off my list.
 
Nobody knows if Kaminski is going to clear concussion protocol. I assume we will know before the game? They might keep it close to the vest because Romfo is more of a runner so maybe they keep that information to themselves for an advantage their first drive before Tarleton can adjust. In his last 5 games Kaminski has just a 4-8 TD-INT ratio. This O has not operated very well in large parts of their last hanful of games. The UND O only had 1 TD entering the 4Q last week. If I am UND I would just go with Romfo this week. Tarleton has struggled in spots vs running QBs anyway so Romfo might actually make the UND better at this point as Kaminski has faded in the second half of the season and his concussion symptoms were pretty serious.
 
SFA only played, what, call it 3 decent FCS teams all year? Ones that can play defense or have some dudes on D. That would be Lamar, Incarnate Word and ACU in my opinion. I am not going to include UTRGV as I don't think they are really that good of a D (they gave up between 414-540 yards in half their SLC games so UTRGV is not a good D)...just in the Southland the week-to-week competition was so bad. And SFA didn't play SLU.

So anyway vs Lamar, UIW and ACU the SFA O only avg 25.6 ppg and 321ypg (4.66ypp). On the year they avg 35.58ppg, 388.1ypg (5.6ypp).

Some further context into those 3 games vs the only quality opponents SFA faced. Of the 20 vs ACU, 6 were by way of a very late game punt ret TD (I will give SFA credit they are a strong ST/D non-offensive TD team). Vs UIW they did score 31, but it was all fueled by their D. UIW fum own 40 = SFA short field TD, UIW SOD own 37 = SFA TD. UIW SOD own 49 = SFA TD. 3 of their 4 TDs were of 50 yards or less. Vs Lamar SFA was pretty good, but still only scored 26 pts as their O got bogged down and they had to kick 5 FGs (made 4). Vs Lamar was their strongest run game of the 3 (180y 4.0), but vs both ACU and UIW this SFA O could not run at all - they combined for just 126y (1.9ypc).
 
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I think all of that on SFA also supports the Under which I was happy to take anything over 50 at the open and it has only come down to 49.5
 
carolinablue said:
Nice to see BM get their lines up (no MLs yet) before day of for a change, but too late to take advantage of anything as they are pretty much just mirroring what’s already up.
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I don't think BM ever has FCS MLs do they? It's always the lock icon in that column
 
s--k said:
Last 4 years Second Round
Home Teams: 30-2 straight up (93.7%), ATS 20-12 (62.5%)
Home Favorites: 29-1 straight up (96.6%), 18-12 ATS (60%)
Home Dogs: 1-1 straight up (50%), 2-0 ATS (100%)

Based on the last 4 years, this round has the highest win % of any round for home teams and home favorites. Those trends certainly support all the home teams to take care of business this week, however, these games in this round this year - except for the 2 large spreads, the other 6 feel like they are going to be good games that could go either way.

The road teams this week/year all seem like they have a chance. So I am personally hedging a few of them, like USD+ and Mercer ML. I did take the UCD ML, but am waiting for that line to move as I think people will bet UCD as game approaches and I'm willing to take URI. I have Tarleton ML, but would I be shocked if UND wins? It depends how they win exactly, but I wouldn't be completely shocked. I lean Montana, but can SDSU win - sure. I took a little Villanova +pts, but I am reconsidering and might come back on the Lehigh ML. Not any good advice there, just I think these games are going to be good and are difficult to be real confident in.

Where is your Montana price coming from? They should be in the 170s. I am going to end up having Montana ML. Talking about it beforehand the game feels like a coinflip and momentum is on SDSU's side. But ultimately I am going to fall back on the belief that the offense and defense that this team showed in the middle part of the season (before Mason was injured) just is not going to be good enough and to an extent, I think some people have forgotten that this SDSU team was fairly questionable before Mason got hurt and then some of us, me included, are just kind of skipping over the losing streak without Mason and then now he's back and they roll one of the weakest playoff teams at home in weather that suited them well and a lot of people are just like "Jacks are back". I don't think they are actually as good as people think they are right now when peeling some layers back. Maybe I'm hung up on weeks 6, 7 and 8 too much. SDSU is expecting an OL back and a LB I believe. But speculation that Montana is getting one of if not their top CB back who has missed all of October and November (Loud).

I like all the home favorites to win, but am also expecting competitive games in most.

With one exception, I think SFA is the home team I would put as most likely to lose. I love their D and think their D is better than their O. They don't seem like a difficult O to matchup against and limit. And the ACU did is pretty good themselves, maybe not as statiscially good as SFA (because SFA has been bully vs weak SLC). ACU's D shut downt he SFA O in their first game week 2. And I think ACU has the better QB. So if I was considering a home fav ML, I would personally cross SFA off my list.
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Appreciate the insight and data points and I agree with what you are saying as this batch of games should be highly entertaining and if I was smart I probably wouldn’t bet on any of em, but where’s the fun in that haha.

Montana 194 is at FD by the way.
 
carolinablue said:
I got rid of those clowns last year good riddance
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Spread variance isn't a lot, sometimes the juice can be. But for MLs I really do like having multiple outlets. FD is high on their Montana ML. MGM is -175, DK -170, BR -177 and HardRock is -180. I know you do not play those places but doesn't feel good to have to overpay for the ML when the competition has them priced lower.
 
s--k said:
Spread variance isn't a lot, sometimes the juice can be. But for MLs I really do like having multiple outlets. FD is high on their Montana ML. MGM is -175, DK -170, BR -177 and HardRock is -180. I know you do not play those places but doesn't feel good to have to overpay for the ML when the competition has them priced lower.
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Only one out of that batch we get here is DK but they don’t want my money so I’ll wait and see what BM offers in the am. Totally agree about having multiple outs but does me no good if an out won’t even let me bet more than a few bucks on a play I want, as DK significantly limited my fbs after I dared to actually go on a run.
 
carolinablue said:
Montana now ML 170 at FD so looks like they course corrected
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Even lower now -128! This line has gone up and down.......I don't think SDSU would flip to favored would they? I think there is reason to want to play against both these teams. The reasons to do so against Montana are pretty evident. But all the frustration and Jacks fans had with their offense (with Mason) and at times their pass defense during the season, that for some reason is all forgotten now. I could be wrong, but I think that can show up tomorrow. I would like it to be a really good game. The last two years, SDSU has ended Montana's season. I don't know if revenge is really a thing when all the chips are already on the table for both sides.
 
Yale-Montana State and SDSU-Montana are going to be on the newly discovered Directv ESPN 210 channels which is great for me as I am in my remote location with more limited streaming options than normal. 7 of the 8 games still overlap which sucks. I'm not going to jump up and down that one game is late, it's great and all, but the rest of the games should be more spread out as well especially considering only 2 of the 8 are played in the eastern time zone meaning they should be fine starting later. I think NCAA sets these times.
 
s--k said:
Even lower now -128! This line has gone up and down.......I don't think SDSU would flip to favored would they? I think there is reason to want to play against both these teams. The reasons to do so against Montana are pretty evident. But all the frustration and Jacks fans had with their offense (with Mason) and at times their pass defense during the season, that for some reason is all forgotten now. I could be wrong, but I think that can show up tomorrow. I would like it to be a really good game. The last two years, SDSU has ended Montana's season. I don't know if revenge is really a thing when all the chips are already on the table for both sides.
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I am most likely gonna take a shot with Montana once it comes out at BM as it’s hard to go against the home team in what should be a great one.
 
BM just posted MLs 8:30am. Will wait as I think they will each go lower.

Lehigh 182
Mercer 231
Montana 143
Tarleton 207
 
Surprisingly I never noticed BM offering MLs in FCS - this is something they have done all year?
 
We know how little can move FD lines early in the week. I do think as it gets closer to the games they are less sensitive
 
My max on the Nova ML at FD is 950.40. Sides and totals are about triple what they were before
 
carolinablue said:
Any of you guys taking a shot with Yale at 28.5?
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I did take Yale after I compared this MSU spread vs Yale, a quality team, not saying they are close to the level of the top 4 in the nation, but what I am going to say is this spread by comparison to who MSU has laid similar against before? -29 vs Weber, -30 vs Mercyhurst, -30.5 vs San Diego and now -27.5/28.5 vs Yale....that is putting Yale in the same category as those teams? That is why I take Yale just on the principle of this many points. Duck chimed in saying he thought the line was too high as well.

My thinking here is that the backdoor could be the route that Yale finds the cover. It would be understandable if MSU has a comfortable lead that they pull their starters looking towards next week. SDSU did this last year after being up big on Montana (led 35-3, final 35-18). Also Montana led Idaho 52-10 early 4Q last year and then ID got 148y and 10pts in garbage time then the following week Montana State led USD 31-14 3Q and then Cats punted their next 4 possessions gaining just 9 yards on those final possessions.
 
s--k said:
I did take Yale after I compared this MSU spread vs Yale, a quality team, not saying they are close to the level of the top 4 in the nation, but what I am going to say is this spread by comparison to who MSU has laid similar against before? -29 vs Weber, -30 vs Mercyhurst, -30.5 vs San Diego and now -27.5/28.5 vs Yale....that is putting Yale in the same category as those teams? That is why I take Yale just on the principle of this many points. Duck chimed in saying he thought the line was too high as well.

My thinking here is that the backdoor could be the route that Yale finds the cover. It would be understandable if MSU has a comfortable lead that they pull their starters looking towards next week. SDSU did this last year after being up big on Montana (led 35-3, final 35-18). Also Montana led Idaho 52-10 early 4Q last year and then ID got 148y and 10pts in garbage time then the following week Montana State led USD 31-14 3Q and then Cats punted their next 4 possessions gaining just 9 yards on those final possessions.
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Appreciate it makes perfect sense plus they owe me for the screw job last week haha
 
carolinablue said:
What’s your max wager allowed on Tarleton ML?

Mine is $1035 BM and actually $1600.50 at FD. So weird
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sorry I meant the max FD would allow me before was on Lehigh, not Nova. On Tarleton ML they have the max at 776.30. I only have $550 on BM so can't see what the max they would let me play there
 
Also Montana State led Idaho 52-10 early 4Q last year and then ID got 148y and 10pts in garbage time then the following week Montana State led USD 31-14 3Q and then Cats punted their next 4 possessions gaining just 9 yards on those final possessions.
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I forgot to add the State on that sentence, just so everyone knows exactly who I'm talking about
 
s--k said:
Do you like Bet365? I am always on the look out to add more FCS books to the list.
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I only use 365. That was the only one offered here in Ontario years ago and I have just stuck with them. Never ever had an issue
 

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s--k said:
sorry I meant the max FD would allow me before was on Lehigh, not Nova. On Tarleton ML they have the max at 776.30. I only have $550 on BM so can't see what the max they would let me play there
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BM should show max on wager screen below the wager before you submit
 
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