Playoffs in the FCS

Massey

Date​
Team​
Standing​
Scr​
Pred​
Pwin​
Margin​
Total​
Sat 12.06Villanova
@ Lehigh
playoff		# 12 (10-2)
# 9 (12-0)		0
0		24
23		51 %
49 %		-0.549.5
Sat 12.06South Dakota
@ Mercer
playoff		# 7 (9-4)
# 14 (9-2)		0
0		29
31		47 %
53 %		-1.562.5
Sat 12.06Illinois St
@ N Dakota St
playoff		# 10 (9-4)
# 1 (12-0)		0
0		14
41		2 %
98 %		-27.554.5
Sat 12.06North Dakota
@ Tarleton St
playoff		# 6 (8-5)
# 5 (11-1)		0
0		30
31		49 %
51 %		-0.561.5
Sat 12.06Abilene Chr
@ SF Austin
playoff		# 11 (9-4)
# 13 (10-2)		0
0		28
31		43 %
57 %		-2.555.5
Sat 12.06Yale
@ Montana St
playoff		# 16 (9-2)
# 2 (10-2)		0
0		14
38		4 %
96 %		-24.556.5
Sat 12.06S Dakota St
@ Montana
playoff		# 4 (9-4)
# 3 (11-1)		0
0		30
27		58 %
42 %		-2.557.5
Sat 12.06Rhode Island
@ UC Davis
playoff		# 20 (11-2)
# 8 (8-3)		0
0		21
31		19 %
81 %		-10.555.5


Sagarin

College Football 2025 ratings through games of 2025 November 29 Saturday - Week 14

HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.21 3.00 3.22 3.42 3.42

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL

@ Lehigh 2.82 0.92 2.56 5.19 9.22 Villanova 137 58% 27.95 20.99 48.94

@ Mercer 5.70 6.12 3.66 7.76 8.55 South Dakota 187 65% 36.04 23.92 59.96

@ North Dakota State 22.14 22.68 22.51 23.32 23.54 Illinois State 884 90% 40.53 13.52 54.05

@ Tarleton State 4.29 3.56 4.49 4.95 4.62 North Dakota 160 62% 31.97 23.95 55.92

@ Stephen F. Austin 7.06 7.25 7.68 6.57 6.81 Abilene Christian 215 68% 29.44 23.03 52.46

@ Montana State 19.45 21.02 17.57 21.63 21.99 Yale 699 87% 37.34 15.32 52.65

@ Montana 5.61 4.04 5.90 7.26 9.40 South Dakota State 185 65% 31.94 23.53 55.46

@ UC Davis 6.58 5.12 6.97 8.16 6.84 Rhode Island 204 67% 31.77 23.66 55.4


S&P+

Lehigh 30.7, Villanova 21.2

Mercer 31.2, South Dakota 23.8

Montana 31.8, South Dakota State 26.2

Montana State 30.8, Yale 21.1

North Dakota State 41.0, Illinois State 15.1

Rhode Island 31.1, UC Davis 25.2

Stephen F. Austin 32.4, Abilene Christian 19.2

Tarleton State 31.6, North Dakota 26.6

SWAC Championship:
Jackson State 29.5, Prairie View A&M 19.6
 
My ability to report on and bet openers if they come out today/tonight is going to be minimal as I'll be traveling. Last week they first were grouped under the FCS Futures tab on Fan Duel before they gave them the dedicated FCS Games tab. If anyone can screen shot or document the opening numbers that would be good. Thanks.
 
Four more just posted at FD…

Mercer -6.5 110/58.5/ML 230
N Dkta St -23.5 110/53.5/ML 3000
SFA -5.5 110/52.5/ML 210
Tarleton -4.5 110/56.5/ML 184
 
Would love to see BM release at same time, but will wait and see what the lines on Lehigh, Montana State and Mercer look like on Saturday. Not sure I will take any of those but interested in whether I can get some value in any of those before game time
 
At airport. Looks like I saw they not long after open. Based on your post. I took ACU and Under. Tarleton and Mercer MLs. Tempted on Montana but don’t love their D and SDSU feels like new lease on life. I wanted URI but shocked so low. Wanted Nova too and surprised so low
 
s--k said:
At airport. Looks like I saw they not long after open. Based on your post. I took ACU and Under. Tarleton and Mercer MLs. Tempted on Montana but don’t love their D and SDSU feels like new lease on life. I wanted URI but shocked so low. Wanted Nova too and surprised so low
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Tarleton and Mercer both on my radar as noted above but can’t get down what I want at FD so will wait til BM opens
 
That is a very high total for a USD game. Must be all Mercer offensive ceiling.
 
s--k said:
That is a very high total for a USD game. Must be all Mercer offensive ceiling.
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Actually it’s a little high for a typical Mercer hame too. Yet lower than the Massey and Sagarin PR. Slightly higher than SP (55). I’m going to take some Under 58.5. I think it comes down a little
 
58.5 to 55.5 I assume that was my $55 bet. Jokesters and their line moves
 
I’m just going to say what I bet and you all can see the lines. I’m not the only one betting but their moves are a joke

$55 Nova+4.5 now 2.5 and back to 3.5
$55 Mercer Und 58.5 now 55.5
$55 ACU+5.5 now 2.5
$110 ACU Und 52.5 now 49.5
Mercer 230 win 1 now 250
Tarleton 180 to win 1 now 200
 
s--k said:
I’m just going to say what I bet and you all can see the lines. I’m not the only one betting but their moves are a joke

$55 Nova+4.5 now 2.5 and back to 3.5
$55 Mercer Und 58.5 now 55.5
$55 ACU+5.5 now 2.5
$110 ACU Und 52.5 now 49.5
Mercer 230 win 1 now 250
Tarleton 180 to win 1 now 200
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It’s always interesting to see the moves as I can’t imagine there are millions of guys waiting for these opens given how much FD caters to the 15 game parlay crowd who thinks they are gonna hit it big one day
 
That was good timing I guess to get some bets. Going to get in a plane. Hopefully can watch MNF
 
carolinablue said:
It’s always interesting to see the moves as I can’t imagine there are millions of guys waiting for these opens given how much FD caters to the 15 game parlay crowd who thinks they are gonna hit it big one day
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Duck seems pretty in touch with the market or industry or whatever you call this. He believes very very few people bet them. He insinuated once it’s like us, him and Brad Powers. It can’t just be that?
 
s--k said:
Duck seems pretty in touch with the market or industry or whatever you call this. He believes very very few people bet them. He insinuated once it’s like us, him and Brad Powers. It can’t just be that?
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The only ones that ever get bet are when their are two top 5 teams playing each other. Rec players are never betting a NEC game.
 
guys. im telling you. Its whoever is in this thread, me, brad powers and another guy from Covers dot com, who play these early openers. and maybe 10 other guys in america. no one else...
 
Went on a nice heater the last few weeks at MB and they rewarded me with max bets of $41.25 on CBB totals and $110 on every thing else including NFL games.
 
Speaking of MB, they have the upcoming SWAC title game listed. I still can't believe they offered both the SWAC regular season games last weekend, but did not post any playoff games.

BOL has their FCS up. BM, Bovada do not. From what I'm told Heritage hasn't been as good of an outlet for FCS this year. I no longer play at BOL, do you guys and are their limits acceptable?
 
s--k said:
Speaking of MB, they have the upcoming SWAC title game listed. I still can't believe they offered both the SWAC regular season games last weekend, but did not post any playoff games.

BOL has their FCS up. BM, Bovada do not. From what I'm told Heritage hasn't been as good of an outlet for FCS this year. I no longer play at BOL, do you guys and are their limits acceptable?
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I only do BM for offshore now as I make my initial cfb deposit via CC every season and they are the only one who charges zero fees for CC deposit as BOL jacked theirs up to 9.75-12.75% which is crazy so I cut them loose a couple years back. Plus once they stopped being first to market, they lost all comp advantage vs BM in my opinion. Bovada limited me a long time ago so haven’t logged in there in ages, same with you wager and others.

If BM released fcs early they would get all of my fcs money as I would have no reason to spend on fcs at FD as BM lets me wager as much as I want, never got close to a limit yet.
 
sleepy said:
BOL and Bookmaker FCS max bets are to win 250
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My FD limits were raised to $412.50 max risk on ATS and $247.50 max risk on goals. They were lower during the season as previously noted in past threads. I don’t do much fcs wise at BM so don’t remember what they were last week but definitely higher than max risk $250 last week.
 
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Curious what is showing for your max risk at BM for a random fbs like Kennesaw vs Jax State? Mine shows $10,800. Max risk on total at BM is $3,040.

BOL is showing max risk $5,500 for the same game. BOL max risk on that total is $2,300 by the way.

FD max risk same game is $2,475 side and $1,237.50 total.
 
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Just checked BOL max risk on random fcs and Lehigh is max 275. Oddly enough total in that one is max risk 287.50.
 
Fan Duel has a host of additional odds and alternates available.

I haven't been thinking about the games much. I've made no bets in Illinois State - North Dakota State, Yale - Montana State and South Dakota State - Montana.

Did say I leaned Montana, at home, Ah Yat having a good season and good offensive weapons, but can't quite pull the trigger because they are kind of a WTF team at times. But they played a hell of a close game last time out vs MSU with the Dowler pick-six and the blk'd FG just being absolutely decisive in the outcome and then Griz couldn't get them off the field as Cats killed the final 7 minutes of the game. And that is what concerns me most, not the sometimes inconsistent O, but the Ds ability to get stops and limit the run - Griz D has been questionable in several games. But I also feel that the SDSU O has been questionable much of the year and even before Mason got hurt. I don't know how fair it is to compare this Jacks team to the great teams of years past, but they've gone from a top 10 type O, in some categories top 5 to a very very average unit. Consider games before Mason's injury, they only ran the ball for 3.1ypc home vs UNI and just 3.4ypc home vs Mercyhurst. Sandwiched between there was the road game at YSU, game that I watched in disbelief as the YSU DL outplayed the SDSU OL in the 1H. The 2H was a different story as they came out and asserted themselves and dominated the LOS and finished with 5.4ypc in that one thanks to a big 2H on the ground. But that is 5 out of 6 halves of football with a healthy Chase Mason and this team's bread and butter has been running and they were not good at it. Those games are a long time ago now, but I wanted to call those games out because it was with Mason (who is a good runner himself) and with the full ability and capabilities of the Jacks O in play, opposing Ds couldn't gameplan them differently like they would have when SDSU was playing the #2 and #3 QBs. So I still question how good of an O this really is overall. In Mason's first game back they were really good in the snow last week vs UNH, actually pretty impressive how good their passing game was in those conditions. But on the other hand, Montana has had issues with offenses much worse than what SDSU generally has. I do like the fact that I said it feels like they have "a new lease on life" they basically have been in playoff mode for 2 weeks now having to beat UND to get into the playoff and now they have the shot in the arm of Mason back and he got to work some rust off last week. But I don't like picking them to have to win the game and I have uncertainties with Montana. Need to see if there is anything I might pick up on to push me one way or the other.
 
Looks like part of the reason SDSU's rushing numbers are so low (3.82ypc this year compared to past three year average of 5.76 including the last two years each over 6ypc rushing) - is the fact that they give up a bunch of TFLs. 5 games they have been TFL'd 8 or more times including 11 vs Indiana State, 11 vs Sac St and 10 vs Illinois St (3 of the 5 occurred with Mason starting before his injury including Northern Iowa 8 and Montana State 8). The sack numbers are high, but some of that is vs the reserve QBs. Mason was sacked 11x in the first 2 games of the year though. They rank 75th in TFLs allowed this year - 2024 and 2023 they finished ranked 3rd and 1st. That is a big difference the amount of negative plays they are allowing and could be an issue vs Griz even though Montana isn't quite as good as I would've thought at creating those negative plays based on the numbers.
 
Missoula, game kicks off at 12:00 local. One weather site says cold rain, the other doesn't say rain (has it stopping after 7am and then resuming in the evening)

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1764871741980.png
 
local weather reports have sleet, snow, rain, wintery mix on saturday throughout. Bozeman will also be affected in some capacity.
 
I see the Montana State line has gone from 24.5 to 27.5/28.5. Was just looking over some of their other huge favorite spreads -29 vs Weber, -30 vs Mercyhurst, -30.5 vs San Diego...MSU went 2-1 ATS in those and probably could've handled the MH noncover game differently if they wanted to, but point being, Yale is dogged in the neighborhood with those teams now? Man, I don't know. Different with the playoffs and styles and all, but getting 28.5 is a lot. 42-13? I guess that is possible. I wonder how it goes late game, if Montana State is up as they look towards their next game might that be a chance for Yale to score another one late? Much tougher travel and location and opponent this week for Yale, but I will say in watching them last week at YSU in the 1H, it wasn't anything that YSU was necessarily doing defensively in that 1H, I think Reno was just off. Maybe the pressure of being in the playoffs and having to follow up the Harvard win, he looked tight and uncomfortable. Maybe that's out of his system now and he can be a little looser to start this game? MSU D is going to have something to say about that.

Yale was down their top WR last week, he's back for this game, but they lose their #2 now.

Dante Reno ’28 should have wide receiver Nico Brown ’26 back on the field this week, but Reno will also have to rely on some of his younger receivers after Jaxton Santiago ’28 went down on Saturday with a season-ending injury against Youngstown State.
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And:
Last week against the Penguins, all-Ivy pass rusher Ezekiel Larry ’27 — who led the Ivy League this year in the best season of his career — missed the entire game against Youngstown State. It is unclear whether he will be back to play this Saturday
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I have a theory on what happened in the Y-state game...but either way...doesnt matter what I think.

I am on yale here. this line is absurd.
 
Nice to see BM get their lines up (no MLs yet) before day of for a change, but too late to take advantage of anything as they are pretty much just mirroring what’s already up.
 
steponaduck said:
i would take them and North Dakota. better teams from a better conference. both can win outright IMO
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Was gonna wait on qb status with ND as I don’t mind the backup since he’s a former starter, but patience might get me 7+ in that one. If it goes the other way then I’ll sit it out.
 
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